Business
Overcoming Obstacles: The economic case for a Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA
By Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake
In 2019, only 6 % of tea imported by Thailand was from Sri Lanka. This low percentage can be attributed to the difference in preferences and Thailand’s high tariffs of 90 % on imported tea, which act as barriers to Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Additionally, Thailand imposes up to 30 % tariffs on nearly 120 product lines of wearing apparel.
These high tariffs for products with a comparative advantage are not exclusive to Sri Lanka. Thailand also faces higher tariffs for vehicles, rubber, and light-electronics exports which Thailand exports competitively. This tariff structure hampers the bilateral trade of products with a higher comparative advantage for both countries.
Despite these challenges, Sri Lanka and Thailand have expedited the process of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) to boost bilateral trade by threefold to USD 1.5 billion. This article discusses the trade effect of an FTA and a way forward to maximise the gains from an FTA.
Existing Trade is Skewed
towards Thailand
In the pre-pandemic period, Sri Lanka-Thailand bilateral trade was nearly USD 500 million. The three-year-2017, 2018 and 2019- average exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand were USD 62.9 million, while the exports from Thailand to Sri Lanka were USD 416.8 million. In 2019, Thailand was the 9th largest import source for Sri Lanka, but Sri Lanka is only the 73rd largest import source for Thailand. The mismatch resulted in a bilateral trade deficit of USD 353.9 million.
The existing exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand do not represent Sri Lanka’s typical export basket. The contribution of traditional exports like ready-made garments, tea, rubber, and coconuts is relatively low, and gems, electrical equipment, wheat flour, and activated carbon contribute to a greater extent. Technically specified natural rubber and latex are the top exports from Thailand which are essential raw materials in the value-added rubber industry of Sri Lanka.
Effect of Lowering Tariffs on Bilateral Trade to Zero
As estimated from partial equilibrium analysis, Sri Lanka will realise a 38 % increase in exports to Thailand if tariffs are reduced to zero (Figure 2). The wearing apparel sector would be the biggest beneficiary, with exports projected to increase by 251 % from USD 6.4 million to USD 22.5 million. Figure 3A provides the top ten exports by Sri Lanka benefitting from a tariff removal by Thailand. The export effect for Thailand will be 27.8 % and Thailand’s rubber and plastic products will be increased by 71.9 % or USD 35.4 million. Products such as smoked sheets of rubber and natural latexwould benefit the most from tariff elimination, as shown in Figure 3B.
Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.
However, partial equilibrium analysis does not estimate the trade gains from new product innovations due to FDI movements. The estimates also do not account for trade effects through input-output linkages and magnification of tariff effects along the value chains. However, tariff phasing out takes time, and FTA coverages are less than 100 %.
Notes: Simulations were done for Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 47-sectors using sector-specific Armington Elasticities. The base years were 2021, and 2017 for Thailand and Sri Lanka, respectively.
Maximising Trade Gains
through Offensive Lists
An offensive list contains products for which a country has a comparative advantage, capacity for expansion, and a favourable tariff from the importing country. There are 154 such products for Sri Lanka. Notably, 81 % of the USD 27.6 million export gain from an FTA comes from these 154 product lines. Similarly, 69 % of Thailand’s export gains to Sri Lanka in an FTA comes from 147 products identified for the offensive list.
Once ordered by the estimated export gains, nine out of the top ten products of Sri Lanka’s offensive list are from the wearing apparel sector. For Thailand, vital offensive products are rubber, electric equipment like air-conditioners and refrigerators, and motor vehicles for goods transportation.
Challenges and the Way Forward:
Applying tariff cuts for all the products in the offensive lists is a challenge. Thailand’s high tariffs for tea and ready-made exports indicate its protectionist intent. Likewise, Sri Lanka might prefer to keep tariffs on rubber products. Significant political manoeuvring and delicate negotiations will be required to bring the coverage of the FTA to a satisfactory level. Secondly, an FTA will widen Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with Thailand by 26 % (Figure 4). Although a trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental, it does present a short-term challenge due to increased dollar outflow.
A possible solution is tariff elimination for the products in bilateral value chains. Sri Lanka uses Thailand’s rubber and textile products to produce finished goods. If Thailand removes tariffs for these finished products, increased exports will demand more raw materials. Sri Lanka can reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on raw materials. Phasing-in of the FTA, accounting for required adjustments, will also increase the political feasibility.
Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Thailand offers additional benefits to Sri Lanka. An FTA provides an opportunity to join electric equipment manufacturing value chains and a gateway to ASEAN economies. Thus, Sri Lanka should negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with investment promotion, trade facilitation, and competition laws. Thailand can leverage Sri Lanka’s position as a distributional hub for regional exports.
Link to Talking Economics blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/05/11/overcoming-obstacles-the-economic-case-for-a-sri-lanka-thailand-fta/
Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Fellow at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. (Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)
Nilupulee Rathnayake is a Research Assistant working on Macro, Trade and Competitiveness research at IPS. She holds an MSc in Development Economics from the University of Nottingham, United Kingdom, and a BA in Economics from the University of Colombo, Sri Lanka. (Talk with Nilupulee – nilupulee@ips.lk)

Business
Ceylon Chamber of Commerce concludes high-level economic engagements in Mumbai
To catalyze bilateral trade and investment and drive regional economic integration, the Consulate General of Sri Lanka in Mumbai facilitated a series of high-level strategic engagements between The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and leading Indian commercial institutions on May 13 and 14.
The delegation from The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce was led by its Chairman Krishan Balendra, CEO of John Keells Holdings Pvt Ltd and comprised a distinguished group of Sri Lankan industry leaders from Hirdaramani Group, Maliban Biscuit Manufactories (Pvt) Ltd, Sierra Cables PLC, A. Baur & Co. (Pvt) Ltd, Jetwing Travels (Pvt) Ltd, Ceylon Biscuits Ltd, Hayleys PLC, Vidullanka PLC, MAS India Clothing (Pvt) Ltd, Tudawe Brothers (Pvt) Ltd, David Pieris Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Bank of Ceylon, Aitken Spence PLC, LTL Holdings Ltd. and Orel IT Pvt. Ltd.
On May 13, The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce jointly hosted the ‘India–Sri Lanka Business Forum: Partnering in Sri Lanka’s Growth and Investment’ and an exclusive CEO interaction in Mumbai. The forum convened senior government officials, policymakers, and industry leaders from both countries.
These included, among others, High Commissioner of Sri Lanka to India Mahishini Colonne; Consul General of Sri Lanka in Mumbai Priyanga Wickramasinghe; Senior Economic Advisor to the President of Sri Lanka Duminda Hulangamuwa; Secretary (Protocol, FDI, Diaspora & Outreach) and Chief of Protocol Government of Maharashtra Rajesh Ravindra Gawande; Co-chairman, CII Western Region Sub-committee on International Trade & Investment and Chief Executive Officer, Polycab India Ltd. Anurag Agarwal; Chairman, CII Western Region Sub-Committee on Tourism and Hospitality and Executive Director, Kamat Hotels India Ltd Vishal Kamat and Secretary General & CEO of The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Shiran Fernando.
Conversations centered on accelerating cross-border cooperation across high-priority sectors, including technology, manufacturing, healthcare, renewable energy, and digital transformation.
On May 14, the delegation engaged in productive Business-to-Business sessions with the IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, culminating in the formal renewal of the Memorandum of Understanding between The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and IMC. The delegation also participated in an interactive session hosted by the World Trade Center (WTC) Mumbai and the All India Association of Industries (AIAI).
The two-day mission concluded with a robust exchange of views cementing a strong foundation for sustained bilateral collaboration and paving the way for a new era of industrial synergy between Colombo and Mumbai. (Consulate General of SL, Mumbai)
Business
Commercial Bank among the first banks to partner with Port City Colombo to open a branch
Demonstrating its commitment to supporting the nation’s next phase of economic transformation, Commercial Bank of Ceylon has become one of the first banks in Sri Lanka to enter into an agreement to establish a fully-fledged branch at Port City Colombo, marking a significant step in the Bank’s strategic expansion into the country’s emerging international financial hub.
The agreement was signed by Sanath Manatunge, Managing Director/CEO of Commercial Bank, and Xiong Hongfeng, Managing Director of CHEC Port City Colombo (Pvt) Ltd. The partnership further reinforces Commercial Bank’s position at the forefront of Sri Lanka’s evolving financial landscape.
The proposed branch will function as a fully-fledged banking branch, offering a full spectrum of products and services tailored to the needs of corporates, investors, businesses and retail customers operating within the Port City Colombo ecosystem. These will include digital banking facilities, trade services, foreign currency transactions, corporate banking solutions, deposits, lending, card services and remittance facilities.
By establishing a presence within Port City Colombo, the Bank said it aims to further strengthen its ability to support cross-border business and investment flows while positioning itself to meet the sophisticated requirements of global investors, multinational corporates and high-net-worth individuals expected to operate within the Special Economic Zone.
Commenting on this ground breaking initiative, Sanath Manatunge, Managing Director/CEO of Commercial Bank said the Bank’s decision to establish a fully-fledged branch within Port City Colombo reflects both its long-term confidence in the project and its readiness to support the evolving needs of a globally integrated financial ecosystem.
“As Sri Lanka’s largest private sector bank with a strong track record in serving corporates, international clients and high-value businesses, we see Port City Colombo as a pivotal development in the country’s economic future,” he said. “Our presence within this Special Economic Zone will enable us to seamlessly support cross-border transactions, facilitate international trade and investment, and deliver world-class banking solutions backed by advanced digital capabilities. Being one of the first banks to formalise plans for a full-service branch within Port City Colombo reaffirms our role as a pioneer in driving financial innovation and supporting national development.”
A 269-hectare extension of Sri Lanka’s central business district, Port City Colombo is being developed as a multi-service Special Economic Zone designed to serve as a regional financial centre, business and lifestyle hub. One of the largest public-private partnership projects in the country, it is envisioned as a catalyst for high-value investments, underpinned by advanced infrastructure, cutting-edge technology and a progressive regulatory framework.
“Our role as master developer goes beyond building the city itself. It is about creating the foundations for a functioning international business and financial hub,” said Mr Xiong Hongfeng, Managing Director of CHEC Port City Colombo (Pvt) Ltd. “The establishment of institutions such as Commercial Bank within Port City Colombo is an important part of that process, because it brings real operational depth and credibility into the ecosystem from an early stage. It reflects the broader momentum behind the project and the growing shift towards a more globally connected, investment-driven economy in Sri Lanka.”
Business
Lumbini Tea wins top global honours in UK
Sri Lanka’s renowned specialty tea brand “Singharaja Wiry Tips,” produced by Lumbini Tea Valley Ceylon, has won two major accolades at the prestigious “The Leafies International Tea Awards” held recently at Fortnum and Mason in the United Kingdom.
The award-winning low-grown Ceylon tea secured the titles of “Best Ceylon Black Tea” and the overall “Best of All Black Teas,” emerging as the top black tea entered at the international competition.
With these latest honours, “Singharaja Wiry Tips” has now earned its 43rd and 44th international awards, further strengthening its reputation as one of the world’s most highly awarded black teas.
Classified as FBOPF EX SP (Flowery Broken Orange Pekoe Fannings Extra Special), the tea is named after its distinctive golden-tipped wiry leaves and unique flavour profile derived from the ecosystem surrounding the UNESCO World Heritage-listed Singharaja Rainforest, which borders the Lumbini plantation.
Lumbini Tea Valley’s latest innovation, “Lumbini Screw Buds,” also received high commendation at this year’s competition, highlighting the company’s continued excellence in producing premium Ceylon teas.
Chairman and Managing Director Chaminda Jayawardena, who accepted the awards in London, credited the achievement to the dedication of the Lumbini workforce and the support of nearly 1,800 tea farmers supplying high-quality green leaf harvested using the traditional “two leaves and a bud” method.
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