Connect with us

Features

A middle path for Sri Lankan agriculture: Sustainable intensification – PART I

Published

on

By Prof. W.A.J.M. De Costa

Senior Professor and Chair of Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya

Sri Lankan agriculture appears to be recovering from its recent upheavals brought about by the ill-fated experiment of converting to 100% organic overnight. However, some of the core issues that existed prior to the ‘100% organic agriculture experiment’ remain. These issues bring in to focus the long-term sustainability of Sri Lankan agriculture and its capacity to ensure national food security while ensuring a reasonably prosperous livelihood to its farmer community. The social dialogue and the consequent increase in awareness during the ‘100% organic agriculture experiment’ and its aftermath highlights the need to modernize Sri Lankan Agriculture by infusing new technologies and be in better shape to meet the challenges posed by climate change and concerns on environmental and food safety. The current phase of partial recovery from the recent crises affords a ‘window of opportunity’ to shift from long-held views and practices and embark on a new pathway which addresses both the food security concerns as well as the sustainability concerns while taking on board the need to be climate resilient and eco-friendly. However, the recent steps taken by the Sri Lankan authorities (e.g. provision of the full quota of the inorganic fertilizer triple super phosphate and diesel free of charge to farmers etc.) and the demands of the farming community (e.g. heavily-subsidized or free inorganic fertiliser, unrestricted availability of synthetic agrochemicals, full compensation for crop losses, etc.) brings in to question whether a ‘window of opportunity’ for Sri Lankan Agriculture to be technologically-advanced, climate-resilient and eco-friendly is being missed. This article discusses ‘Sustainable Intensification’ as an option, which is worth considering when striving to achieve the above-mentioned multiple goals of future Sri Lankan Agriculture.

What is Sustainable Intensification (SI)?

Sustainable intensification (SI) refers collectively to strategies and practices that aim to increase crop yields without adverse environmental impacts and without expanding the presently-cropped area. Increasing yields generally requires greater investment of land resources (i.e. nutrients, water, energy etc.). Sustainable intensification aims to achieve yield increases with a proportionately lower increase in resource use (i.e. ‘producing more with less’). As such, SI aims to conserve and, possibly, regenerate the resource base (i.e. land, soil fertility, water, biodiversity, etc.) while meeting the food demand of a continuously increasing population. Climate change adds an overarching layer of challenges on all SI strategies. This short article identifies SI strategies that are feasible in crop production systems in Sri Lanka. It then explores how the additional challenges posed by climate change on the feasible SI strategies may be addressed.

The challenges faced by the food production systems in Sri Lanka

The global population which reached 8 billion in 2022 is projected to rise to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11 billion in 2100. The corresponding trend in Sri Lanka is different where the current (March 2023) population of 21.65 million (0.27% of the global population) is projected to rise to 22.19 million in 2040 (0.24% of global). The annual rate of population growth in Sri Lanka which was 2.43% in 1967 has almost continuously declined to the present rate of 0.42% in 2020. These demographic trends will, to a certain extent, lessen the pressures exerted on food production targets and the demands exerted on essential environmental resources. However, many other natural and socio-economic drivers are likely to increase these pressures. Climate change is one such driver where the temperatures in key agroecological regions have been shown to have increased at rates which are greater than that of the global average temperatures. The recent economic down-turn and short-sighted government policies have combined to reduce the capacity of farmers to invest in essential inputs such as fertiliser, good quality seed and Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) in crop management. This has left the soils impoverished and imbalanced in terms of essential plant nutrients and crops susceptible to a range of biotic (e.g. diseases and pests) and abiotic stresses (e.g. drought, heat, salinity, climate change).

Inadequate investment in research and development has left the national agricultural research system (NARS) severely depleted so that generation of new technologies through research to overcome these challenges has slowed down to a trickle. Similarly, the national agricultural extension network has been depleted, fragmented and made ineffective during the last three decades, thus depriving the farmers of knowledge and advise on existing and emerging technologies to overcome the challenges faced by them. Furthermore, arguably, Sri Lankan agriculture and its farmers have, for a long time, been dependent on cultivation practices which are heavily reliant on addition of large quantities of external inputs (e.g. inorganic fertilizer, synthetic pesticides and fossil fuel).

There has been inadequate attention, willingness and effort on the part of all stakeholders to introduce and engage in agricultural practices which are less demanding on external inputs and aim to regenerate and replenish the resource pool in the croplands that are being used to produce the crops. Now, the Sri Lankan Agriculture is at a critical juncture where the substantially reduced economic capacity to provide external inputs (e.g. inorganic fertilizer, fossil fuel, synthetic pesticides) has forced its stakeholders to explore options and avenues which will enable them to meet the national agricultural production targets with reduced inputs. Thus, I would argue that we have a ‘window of opportunity’ to steer the Sri Lankan Agriculture towards a more sustainable pathway while engaging in efforts to increase its productivity. This is where ‘Sustainable Intensification’, comes in to focus for Sri Lanka at the present juncture.

Strategies for Sustainable

Intensification (SI) in Sri Lanka and required paradigm shifts

Any SI strategy should satisfy three criteria for it to be implementable, effective, and adopted by the farmers. First and foremost, the strategy should be based on valid scientific principles. In addition, its environmental cost should be minimum. Furthermore, the strategy should be within the economic capability of the potential end-users (e.g. farmers) and also socially and culturally acceptable. The specific SI strategies that satisfy the scientific, environmental and socio-economic criteria are different for different scales of agricultural production. Accordingly, the strategies that may be applicable to large scale and extensive production systems such as plantation crops and paddy would be different from the SI strategies that are suitable in small-scale and subsistence farming systems which produce a high proportion of the Other Field Crops (OFCs) and vegetables in Sri Lanka.

Some key paradigm shifts are essential in identifying feasible SI strategies for different production systems in Sri Lanka. Currently, the specific crops (and specific crop varieties) are selected via a crop-based approach, which is determined by climatic and soil considerations as well as by economic (e.g. market forces) and social considerations (e.g. farmer preference) with little consideration on sustaining and regenerating the resource base (e.g. nutrient recycling, soil conservation etc.). Selection of crops to be grown based on a ‘Cropping Systems Approach’ (instead of a crop-based approach) constitutes a key paradigm shift in moving Sri Lankan Agriculture towards SI. A cropping systems approach considers the crop as one component of a broader faming- and eco-system which includes the soil resource base, water resources, biodiversity, natural vegetation, livestock, wildlife, industries, marketing channels and the socio-cultural setting. Such a paradigm shift forces all key players (e.g. farmers, researchers, extensionists and policy makers) to explore the possibility of increased adoption of crop rotations, crop mixtures (e.g. intercropping), cover crops, ‘crops for the period between seasons’ and fallowing, where minimising resource losses and maximising resource recycling are given due consideration in decision-making.

A second paradigm shift that is needed for SI of Sri Lankan Agriculture is to shift focus from attempting to maximise yield per unit land area to maximise yield per unit of limiting resources (e.g. maximizing yield per unit of water used and yield per unit of nitrogen used, etc..). This requires a significant shift of focus in crop improvement programmes through plant breeding from developing higher yielding varieties to developing varieties with greater resource use efficiency which give an adequate, but not necessarily the highest, yield. Greater emphasis should be accorded to the improvement nutritional quality during the development of new crop varieties to address the growing concerns about increasing malnutrition.

Developing perennial rice varieties (i.e. a variety of rice that will yield a crop for 4-5 seasons from the same plant), an initiative that is being pursued in the US and tested in China, could reduce the economic and environmental cost of rice production. Development of these new resource-efficient and more nutritious crop varieties should be accompanied by the development of a range of new agronomic crop management practices/strategies/packages which focus on the key requirements of SI (i.e. sustainability of the resource base). In particular, these strategies include irrigation and water management practices which minimize evaporative losses while maximizing efficient delivery and uptake and nutrient management practices to minimize leaching and volatilization losses while releasing the nutrients which are fixed in the soil minerals. In this regard, the potential of new technologies such as drones, artificial intelligence, machine learning and the Internet of things needs to be harnessed in developing new crop management packages to provide detailed location-specific information to optimize resource use in crop production.

Shifting from single strategy-based crop management to integrated crop management is the third paradigm shift that is needed to move Sri Lankan Agriculture towards SI. Most single strategy-based crop management practices (e.g. crop protection, nutrient management etc.) are heavily reliant on inorganic and synthetic substances. Broadening the strategies used and thereby reducing their reliance on synthetic substances during crop protection (e.g. Integrated Pest Management) and nutrient management (Integrated Nutrient Management) addresses one of the key requirements of SI by ensuring protection of the agroecosystem and its services (e.g. biodiversity, clean water, safer food etc.). Integrated nutrient management should include strategies to harness the potential of biochar (charcoal-like material containing highly stable carbon obtained by burning any type of biomass in a zero-oxygen environment) to improve the fertility of Sri Lankan soils. (To be condluded)

This article is adapted from a keynote address delivered by the author at the 3rd International Symposium on Agriculture organized by the Faculty of Agriculture of the Eastern University of Sri Lanka on the theme ‘Self-Sustaining Agriculture: Way forward for food security and safety’ on the 9th of March 2023. It has incorporated valuable comments on a first draft from Raj Gonsalkorale, Suchira Peiris, Vijith Gunawardena and Parakrama Jayasinghe.



Features

Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers

Published

on

For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.

One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.

Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.

“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”

Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.

Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.

From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.

His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.

This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.

“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”

The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.

Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.

It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.

“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”

That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.

The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”

The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.

Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.

“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”

That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.

In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”

His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.

This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.

“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.

Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.

“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”

In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.

By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.

By Ifham Nizam ✍️

Continue Reading

Features

AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap

Published

on

This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.

There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.

The Need for Immediate Action

AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.

“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”

Training Teachers and Students

Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.

Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.

Benefits of AI in Education

AI in schools offers numerous advantages:

· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills

· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness

· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy

· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics

· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences

· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition

AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:

· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information

· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions

· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes

· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation

Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.

Global and Local Perspectives

In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.

The Way Forward

Experts urge swift action:

· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.

· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.

· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.

“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”

As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.

BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com

Continue Reading

Features

The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad

Published

on

Protests and a vigil have been held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where the shooting of Renee Nicole Good occurred on Wednesday (photo courtesy BBC)

The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.

Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.

Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.

Restive America

Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.

But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.

Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.

After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.

The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.

In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.

It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.

Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.

But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.

An Obliging World

To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.

Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.

After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.

The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.

But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.

More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.

Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”

by Rajan Philips ✍️

Continue Reading

Trending