Monday 16th September, 2024

Former Justice Minister Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, who is running for President, has dropped a bombshell. Taking part in a Sirasa TV programme, the other day, he hinted at the possibility of some world powers having had a hand in the Easter Sunday terror attacks, which snuffed out about 270 lives and left more than 500 others injured, in 2019. He said he had opposed the handing over of the strategically important Hambantota Port to China, in 2017, and warned the Yahapalana Cabinet that another world power would seek to take control of the Trincomalee harbour, the oil tank farm near it, and the Colombo Port, and if Sri Lanka did not grant those demands, it would be plunged into a bloodbath and forced into submission.

He said the Yahapalana administration had ignored his warning and gone ahead with the Hambantota Port deal, and three months later his prediction had come true; the US asked for the Trincomalee harbour with 1.2 million acres, and India demanded the Trinco oil tanks and the East Terminal of the Colombo Port be handed over to it. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had sought to grant those demands and presented a bill to Parliament to amend the Land Ordinance, Dr. Rajapakshe said, adding that he had moved the Supreme Court successfully, aborting the Yahapalana government’s bid to hand over the Trincomalee harbour and 1.2 million acres. That administration’s attempt to grant India’s demand had come a cropper due to protests. A few months later, the Easter Sunday attacks had happened, Dr. Rajapakshe said, drawing parallels between the destabilisation of Sri Lanka and that of Bangladesh.

If one reads between the lines, it is not difficult to figure out what Rajapakshe chose to leave unsaid. He is not alone in suspecting that there was a foreign hand in the 2019 terrorist bombings. We have dealt with this issue in previous editorial comments.

The Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI), which probed the Easter Sunday terror attacks, investigated the alleged foreign involvement in the carnage rather perfunctorily. It has devoted only an eight-page chapter in its bulky report to the alleged foreign hand in the attacks. This particular section in the commission report, in our book, lacks clarity and proper analysis. The witnesses who expressly testified that there had been ‘an external hand or conspiracy behind the attacks’, according to the PCoI report, are Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, former President Maithripala Sirisena, former Minister Rauff Hakeem, former Minister Rishad Bathiudeen, former Governor Azath Salley, SJB MP Mujibur Rahman, former SIS Director SDIG Nilantha Jayawardena, former STF Commandant M. R. Lateef, former Chief of Defence Staff Ravindra Wijegunaratne, former SDIG CID Ravi Seneviratne and former CID Director Shani Abeysekera. Dismissing their statements as mere ipse dixits (assertions made but not proven), the PCoI report has said that no such foreign link was found (p. 472). The probe commission should have dug deeper before arriving at such a conclusion. It has, however, recommended that certain identified parties be further investigated. This has not been done.

We argued, prior to the release of the PCoI report, that it was possible that Zahran and his gang had taken orders from a fake ISIS created by a foreign spy agency. The PCoI has quoted SDIG Jayawardena as saying that an Indian named Abu Hind ‘may have triggered the attacks’: “He [Jayawardena] went on to imply that the intelligence agencies that provided him with the intelligence on 4th, 20th and 21st April 2019 may have had a hand in the attack.” According to the PCoI report, an ‘international expert on terrorism, who testified in camera, said, “Abu Hind was a character created by a section of a provincial Indian intelligence apparatus, and the intelligence that the Director SIS received on the 4th, 20th and 21st April, 2019 was from this operation and the intelligence operative pretending to be one Abu Hind.

Operatives of this outfit operate on social media pretending to be Islamic State figures. They are trained to run virtual personas.” The PCoI report says: “The testimony was that Zahran believed Abu Hind was the Islamic State regional representative. Abu Hind was in touch with both Zahran and his brother, Rilwan, and had spoken to Naufer. This part of the evidence is confirmed by the testimony of Hadiya [Zahran’s wife].” It is mentioned on page 220 of the report that according to the aforesaid international expert, ‘the Indian Central Government was not aware of the intelligence obtained by the provincial outfit’. This, we believe, is a debatable point.

Dr. Rajapakshe was the Justice Minister in the Yahapalana government, and cognisance must be taken of what he says about the Easter Sunday attacks. In fact, a thorough probe must be conducted into the alleged foreign involvement in the 2019 terror attacks, which may have been the beginning of a sinister campaign to make the Sri Lankan economy scream. Will any of the presidential candidates have the courage to promise to order a probe into this vital aspect of the Easter Sunday carnage, if elected?

With the presidential election due next Saturday, campaigning is now reaching its peak and must end by Wednesday midnight leaving two clear days before the polling begins. Postal voting by public servants and others on election duty has already closed and the counting of these votes will only start when the counting proper begins upon the close of the poll. There is a widely held perception that, for the first time at a presidential election here, none of the contestants will clear the 50 percent plus one hurdle to be declared elected on the first round and the counting of preferential votes polled by all but the two front runners must follow. But all that remains to be seen.

Most commentators and observers agree that the front runners are President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and NPP/JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake in no particular order. Wickremesinghe is running mainly on a platform of having restored a degree of stability after the post-Aragalaya chaos two years ago although he himself is freely on record that much more remains to be done.

Not having won even his own parliamentary seat in Colombo at the previous general election in August 2020, when the UNP was reduced to a single national list seat, Wickremesinghe was the surprise choice of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to succeed Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister when the latter quit days before his malli fled the country and resigned the presidency from Singapore.

According to the record, RW was not the first choice for prime minister when MR quit. Wickremesinghe himself has repeatedly said that the offer had been made earlier to Sajith Premadasa who funked taking it up. There have also been unconfirmed reports that Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, whom the Rajapaksas jailed, had also been approached.

But by GR’s account, Fonseka had sought the position. However that be, Wickremesinghe according to both himself and his supporters, bravely accepted the challenge, soon to become more challenging when Gotabaya resigned and the Rajapaksa party elected Wickremesinghe to succeed him as president for the balance term.

The miles long gas and fuel queues, the power cuts and accompanying blackouts, the unavailability of basic essentials, rocketing cost of living, plunging exchange rates and much more are too recent to be forgotten. No wonder then that Wickremesinghe, who has chosen the gas cylinder as his election symbol, has a lot going for him at this election as he ensured a degree of near normalcy.

Critics stress that much of this was possible thanks to the fact that most of the country’s debt servicing and loan repayment obligations have not been met. Nevertheless, Wickremesinghe doubtlessly made the lives of most Lankans easier during his current tenure.

As for Premadasa, when Wickremesinghe conceded the UNP ticket to him to run for the presidency against GR in 2019, he did not get the party leadership he considered his entitlement. History was repeating itself as in 1970, when Dudley Senanayake made JR Jayewardene the leader of the opposition, he (Dudley) retained the party leadership.

The recent parallel was the creation of the breakaway Samagi Jana Balavegaya that took away the vast majority of UNP MPs in the then parliament. Indisputably, the votes the SJB polled at the August 2020 election were UNP votes with party supporters like the UNP parliamentary group opting for Sajith rather than Ranil. Hence the UNP’s and RW’s sorry performance at that election.

Both Wickremesinghe and Premadasa have attracted the majority of the SLPP’s ministers and MPs, many of them bad eggs, to their camps; RW more so than Premadasa. The Rajapaksas, now out of hiding, have been left with the rump are running Namal, more with an eye on the next election than this one.

The question now is whether defectors can deliver votes to the ticket they are backing. The ‘frogs’ as the Jumping Jacks have been aptly labeled are looking more at their self-interest at the parliamentary election that will follow the presidential race.

Accommodating them in the various party lists can only be done at the sacrifice of serving organizers. As far at the runners in this presidential election are concerned, that problem is one for later resolution. Right now the objective is winning the forthcoming presidential contest.

As for the NPP/JVP, the party indisputably has the best organization among those running at this election. This has been clearly apparent during the current campaign. It has meticulously cultivated different constituencies of the electorate including the business community. Undoubtedly it has to live down its violent past but many of those voting next Saturday were not even born in 1971 when the Rohana Wijeweera-led first insurgency rocked the country. The violence of 1988-89 on both sides was much worse. But that was 35 years ago and the then JVP leaders are now history.

Having demonstrated a three percent share of the national vote at the most recent elections, they have a vast gap to bridge. Part of that has clearly been covered. But questions persist on whether the party has the capacity to run the country. There are those who believe that the NPP/JVP is more likely to attack corruption at the top with more gusto than other players who have in one way or another consorted with the corrupt. But totally ridding the country of pervasive corruption from top to bottom will be a very tall order.

Saturday 14th September, 2024

The Cabinet of Ministers is playing Santa these days in a bid to shore up President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s chances in the ongoing presidential race. Its latest gimmick is the announcement of substantial PAYE tax reductions, which are to take effect from April 2025. The Cabinet has said the proposal to grant tax relief has the blessings of the IMF, which, we thought, was against tax cuts.

The Cabinet, headed by President Wickremesinghe, is in overdrive to announce relief measures and make as many election promises as possible ahead of the forthcoming presidential election. Its ulterior motive is not difficult to discern, and it will be interesting to see the Election Commission’s reaction. The Cabinet has also undertaken to increase the public sector salaries and pensions. Restrictions on vehicle imports, too, will be lifted from February 2025, the Cabinet has said.

Curiouser and curiouser! A couple of months ago, President Wickremesinghe, the Finance Ministry and the Cabinet insisted that a demand for public sector pay hikes could not be granted for want of funds and in view of the IMF’s stringent bailout conditions.

They stood their ground amidst workers’ protests, which were crushed. State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe went on record as saying that pay hikes that trade unions demanded for state employees would require an extra Rs. 275 billion, and the value added tax would have to be jacked up from 18% to 22% to meet that demand. The Finance Ministry panjandrums and Minister Bandula Gunawardena peddled the same argument, which received wide publicity. Now, the Cabinet says it is possible to grant public workers pay hikes, and, at the same time, reduce taxes! It finds itself in a contradiction—a huge one at that.

President Wickremesinghe would have the public believe that the economic crisis is far from over, and they will have to brace for more austerity measures if the country is to come out of it; that uphill task will be attainable only under his stewardship.

Hence his warning that it will be a huge mistake for the public to elect anyone else as President next week. But he and the Cabinet are now making pledges to increase salaries, provide subsidies and relief, do away with import restrictions and reduce taxes as if the economic crisis were a thing of the past. They must be asked whether a country facing an economic crisis can afford to carry out such election pledges.

Interestingly, the Cabinet has said that for the proposed tax relief to be granted, the Inland Revenue Act will have to be amended. Reading between the lines, one will discern the subliminal message the Cabinet has conveyed; the public will have to elect Wickremsinghe as President and vote for his party or independent group to ensure that the promised tax relief becomes a reality.

Whatever the Cabinet and the President promise, out of their sheer desperation to garner votes in a tight presidential race, state revenue will have to be raised substantially to slash personal income taxes, increase the public sector salaries and enhance social welfare.

How does the Cabinet propose to meet the revenue targets set by the IMF while decreasing taxes? IMF Senior Mission Chief Peter Breuer said in June that Sri Lanka had to increase state revenue to the region of 15% of GDP in 2025. Are the proposed PAYE tax reductions a ploy to prepare the ground for the implementation of the much-dreaded imputed rental tax and increase other taxes after the presidential and parliamentary elections? The IMF and Sri Lankan politicians know more than one way to shoe a horse.