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What’s happening in Sri Lanka and how did the economic crisis start?

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By R Ramakumar, Professor of Economics, Tata Institute of Social Sciences

The island nation of Sri Lanka is in the midst of one of the worst economic crises it’s ever seen. It has just defaulted on its foreign debts for the first time since its independence, and the country’s 22 million people are facing crippling 12-hour power cuts, and an extreme scarcity of food, fuel and other essential items such as medicines.

Inflation is at an all-time high of 17.5%, with prices of food items such as a kilogram of rice soaring to 500 Sri Lankan rupees when it would normally cost around 80 rupees. Amid shortages, one 400g packet of milk powder is reported to cost over 250 rupees, when it usually costs around 60 rupees.

On April 1, President Gotabaya Rajpaksa declared a state of emergency. In less than a week, he withdrew it following massive protests by angry citizens over the government’s handling of the crisis.

The country relies on the import of many essential items including petrol, food items and medicines. Most countries will keep foreign currencies on hand in order to trade for these items, but a shortage of foreign exchange in Sri Lanka is being blamed for the sky-high prices.

Many believe Sri Lanka’s economic relations with China are a main driver behind the crisis. The United States has called this phenomenon debt-trap diplomacy . This is where a creditor country or institution extends debt to a borrowing nation to increase the lender’s political leverage if the borrower extends itself and cannot pay the money back, they are at the creditor’s mercy.

However, loans from China accounted for only about 10% of Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt in 2020. The largest portion about 30% can be attributed to international sovereign bonds. Japan actually accounts for a higher proportion of their foreign debt, at 11%.

Defaults over China’s infrastructure-related loans to Sri Lanka, especially the financing of the Hambantota port, are being cited as factors contributing to the crisis.

But these facts don’t add up. The construction of the Hambantota port was financed by the Chinese Exim Bank. The port was running losses, so Sri Lanka leased out the port for 99 years to the Chinese Merchant’s Group, which paid Sri Lanka US 1.12 billion.

So the Hambantota port fiasco did not lead to a balance of payments crisis (where more money or exports are going out than coming in), it actually bolstered Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves by US 1.12 billion.

Post-independence from the British in 1948, Sri Lanka’s agriculture was dominated by export-oriented crops such as tea, coffee, rubber and spices. A large share of its gross domestic product came from the foreign exchange earned from exporting these crops. That money was used to import essential food items.

Over the years, the country also began exporting garments, and earning foreign exchange from tourism and remittances (money sent into Sri Lanka from abroad, perhaps by family members). Any decline in exports would come as an economic shock, and put foreign exchange reserves under strain.

For this reason, Sri Lanka frequently encountered balance of payments crises. From 1965 onwards, it obtained 16 loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Each of these loans came with conditions including that once Sri Lanka received the loan they had to reduce their budget deficit, maintain a tight monetary policy, cut government subsidies for food for the people of Sri Lanka, and depreciate the currency (so exports would become more viable).

But usually in periods of economic downturns, good fiscal policy dictates governments should spend more to inject stimulus into the economy. This becomes impossible with the IMF conditions. Despite this situation, the IMF loans kept coming, and a beleaguered economy soaked up more and more debt.

The last IMF loan to Sri Lanka was in 2016. The country received US 1.5 billion for three years from 2016 to 2019. The conditions were familiar, and the economy’s health nosedived over this period. Growth, investments, savings and revenues fell, while the debt burden rose.

A bad situation turned worse with two economic shocks in 2019. First, there was a series of bomb blasts in churches and luxury hotels in Colombo in April 2019. The blasts led to a steep decline in tourist arrivals with some reports stating up to an 80% drop and drained foreign exchange reserves. Second, the new government under President Gotabaya Rajapaksa irrationally cut taxes.

Value-added tax rates (akin to some nations’ goods and services taxes) were cut from 15% to 8%. Other indirect taxes such as the nation building tax, the pay-as-you-earn tax and economic service charges were abolished. Corporate tax rates were reduced from 28% to 24%. About 2% of the gross domestic product was lost in revenues because of these tax cuts.

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck. In April 2021, the Rajapaksa government made another fatal mistake. To prevent the drain of foreign exchange reserves, all fertiliser imports were completely banned. Sri Lanka was declared a 100% organic farming nation. This policy, which was withdrawn in November 2021, led to a drastic fall in agricultural production and more imports became necessary.

But foreign exchange reserves remained under strain. A fall in the productivity of tea and rubber due to the ban on fertiliser also led to lower export incomes. Due to lower export incomes, there was less money available to import food and food shortages arose.

Because there is less food and other items to buy, but no decrease in demand, the prices for these goods rise. In February 2022, inflation rose to 17.5%.

n all probability, Sri Lanka will now obtain a 17th IMF loan to tide over the present crisis, which will come with fresh conditions.

A deflationary fiscal policy will be followed, which will further limit the prospects of economic revival and exacerbate the sufferings of the Sri Lankan people. (PTI)



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National Communication Programme for Child Health Promotion (SBCC) has been launched. – PM

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Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya stated that the Government has commenced necessary measures to maintain preschool education under a framework, align preschool education with a unified curriculum, conduct teacher training in a systematic manner, and ensure quality standards.

The Prime Minister made these remarks on Saturday (10) at the Temple Trees, participating in the launch of the National Communication Programme for Child Health Promotion, aimed at promoting social and behavioural change (SBCC) among early childhood children. The programme is jointly organized by the Health Promotion Bureau, the Ministry of Women and Child Affairs, the Ministry of Education, Higher Education and Vocational Education, UNICEF, and the Clean Sri Lanka Programme.

Addressing at the event, Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya stated:

“Early Childhood Development (ECD) has a major impact on a country’s human development and future progress. It is a widely accepted fact that a child’s future depends largely on early childhood development. Many aspects essential for a child’s growth occur within the first five years of life. The experiences, care, and love a child receives during this period are decisive.

The social integration, relationships, and environmental influences experienced in early childhood form the foundation for shaping an individual as an adult. Early childhood development influences life to an extent that it becomes difficult to change when it grows into adulthood.

The responses of adults to children’s actions, the way they interact with them, and the care they provide are extremely important. Therefore, early childhood development should never be viewed as the sole responsibility of parents. It is a collective responsibility of all citizens.

No child can be raised into a good citizen by parents alone. In all our lives, beyond our parents, there have been many who influenced us, showed us love, and provided care. It is due to the collective support of all these individuals that we have reached where we are today. The government views child care as a social responsibility. Supporting a child, providing care, ensuring protection, education, and health facilities are social responsibilities. In this regard, the intervention of the Clean Sri Lanka Programme to communicate these values to the public is important.

The role of the preschool teachers plays a special and vital role for children. The love, care, attentive listening, and responses children receive during this stage are decisive for their development. Teachers carry out a crucial intervention in the lives of children. An education policy on early childhood development has been formulated, with UNICEF providing technical assistance. Steps are being taken to operate preschool education under a single framework, align it with a unified curriculum, systematically conduct teacher training, and ensure quality standards.

Recognising early childhood development as a specialised area within education, the Prime Minister affirmed that the relevant interventions will be made accordingly.

Addressing the event, Minister of Women and Child Affairs, Ms. Saroja Paulraj stated that the Ministry has identified the standardisation and development of early childhood development as a primary goal for the year 2026. She noted that children who leave the warmth of their mother’s embrace and father’s shoulder and come to preschool teachers expecting the same love and care from their teachers. Conveying that warmth through words and expressions is a responsibility entrusted to teachers. The love and safe environment children receive shape their ability to love the environment and respect others.

Minister of Health and Mass Media,  Nalinda Jayatissa, also addressed the gathering, stating that the goal of the government is to build a beautiful future generation capable of leading the country, free from the various hardships and challenges faced today.

He emphasised that creating a healthy population is a challenge, particularly in preventing non-communicable diseases. Children aged three to five today will become a generation aged 18 to 20 by 2040. Continuous and comprehensive programmes such as this are essential to protect that generation from non-communicable diseases. In some instances, interventions are required even during the preconception and prenatal stages.

He further highlighted that preschool and early childhood development centre teachers shoulder a tremendous responsibility in driving a major transformation in the country’s future.

The event was attended by the Governor of the Sabaragamuwa Province, Ms. Champa Janaki Rajarathne; the Governor of the Uva Province, Attorney-at-Law  Kapila Jayasekara; the Governor of the North Central Province,  Wasantha Jinadasa; the Governor of the North Western Province,  Thissa Kumarsiri Warnasuriya; the Deputy Minister of Women and Child Affairs, Dr. Namal Sudarshana; the Member of Parliament, Dr. Najith Indika; the Representative of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in Sri Lanka, Ms. Emma Brigham; the Secretary to the President, Dr. Nandika Sanath Kumanayake; the Senior Additional Secretary to the President (Finance and Economic Affairs), Mr. Russell Aponsu; the Additional Secretary to the President (Clean Sri Lanka), S. P. C. Sugishwara; Secretaries to Ministries; Provincial Chief Secretaries; the Commanders of the Tri-Forces; officials of subject-related ministries; provincial council officials; preschool teachers; preschool children; and parents.

(Prime Minister’s Media Division)

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Level I landslide early warnings issued to the Districts of Badulla, Kandy, Matale and Nuwara-Eliya extended

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The  Landslide Early Warning Centre of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) has extended the landslide early warnings issued to the Districts of Badulla, Kandy,  Matale and Nuwara-Eliya till 1600hrs today (11).

Accordingly, the LEVEL I YELLOW early warnings issued to the Divisional Secetaries Divisions and surrounding areas of Lunugala, Meegahakiwula,Welimada, Kandaketiya, Hali_Ela, Badulla, Uva  Paranagama in the Badulla district,  Minipe and Ududumbara in the Kandy district, Wilgamuwa, Ukuwela, Ambanganga Korale, Rattota and Laggala_Pallegam in the Matale district, and Nildandahinna,  Walapane, Mathurata and Hanguranketha in the Nuwara-Eliya district will be in force until 1600hrs today (11)

 

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Experts: NPP education reforms unsuitable for SL

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Proposed education reforms have drawn sharp criticism from education professionals, teacher unions and student organisations, who warned on Thursday that the changes risk undermining child safety, widening inequality and imposing unaffordable costs on parents.

Addressing a press conference in Colombo, Dr Ayomi Irugalbandara of the Faculty of Education at the Open University of Sri Lanka said the proposed reforms appeared to be largely modelled on foreign education systems without adequate consideration of local realities.

She took particular issue with proposals to integrate social media use into the school curriculum, noting that several developed countries have moved in the opposite direction by preventing children under the age of 15 from accessing social media platforms.

“Most of these modules are not appropriate for this country,” Dr Irugalbandara said. “We warn parents that these reforms place children at risk.”

Concerns were also raised over digital content linked to the revised curriculum. Inter-University Students’ Federation Convener Madushan Chandrajith said the Grade Six Information and Communication Technology (ICT) module included QR codes that directed students to a controversial YouTube channel.

“Who will take responsibility for children accessing such content?” he asked, calling for clear accountability mechanisms for material linked through digital platforms used in schools.

Secretary of the Workers’ Struggle Centre, Duminda Nagamuwa, criticised the government’s approach to the reform process, comparing it to the fertiliser policy introduced under former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He alleged that the authorities were pushing ahead with education reforms despite opposition from academics, teachers and other stakeholders.

Nagamuwa also highlighted the economic burden on families, noting that Sri Lanka’s poverty rate had increased from 12.5 percent to 25 percent. He questioned how parents were expected to afford smartphones or tablet computers required for students to access QR code-linked educational content.

“The government is asking parents to bear costs they simply cannot afford,” he said.

Ceylon Teachers’ Union General Secretary Joseph Stalin said schools had already begun collecting money from parents in anticipation of the reforms, including funds to purchase smart boards.

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