Features

The politics of growth

Published

6 months ago

2025/07/13

By Uditha Devapriya

Review of Sustaining transformative growth in Sri Lanka 2025 – 2030. ODI Global. 2025. 54 pages. Available for download online.

The big question facing Sri Lanka today is not how growth can be sustained; it’s whether it can be sustained at all. By growth here I mean the kind that can readily transform the economy, not the sort that helps us to hang on until the next crisis. This week marks two years since Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned as president, and two years since the start of perhaps the most painful round of austerity and economic reforms in post-independence Sri Lanka. What are the mistakes that were made, the lessons learnt? How do we take them forward? More crucially, will political officials take them forward?

Sustaining transformative growth in Sri Lanka 2025 – 2030, published “under the auspices” of ODI Global (UK) and the Centre for Poverty Analysis (Sri Lanka), combines in one slim volume the prescriptions of nine policymakers who try to answer these questions. Not all of them are economists, but most are. All but one are Sri Lankans, though not all of them are living here. They include Sirimal Abeyratne, Indrajit Coomaswamy, and Ganeshan Wignaraja, who work today at the intersection of policy and academia.

It’s that combination of policy and academic research which comes out in what these nine authors have to say, and though one may not agree with their prescriptions, they are there for all to see, and they can serve as a blueprint for the future.

Unfortunately for us, of course, the future does not look all that bright. From the word go, the report underlies our paradox: the economy has stabilised “remarkably well”, but there remains “a substantial risk of a relapse.” Sri Lanka is hardly the first country to have weathered a major crisis, and other countries which have gone through crisis have faced such relapses: Latin and Central America being just one notorious example. The question whether Sri Lanka will follow suit or whether it will defy (economic) history will largely depend on the policies it adopts. This, of course, is a no-brainer, yet it cannot be emphasised enough. That begs the question: just what are these policies?

Sustaining transformative growth gives us 30 of them, spread across six topics. These range from the practical to the idealistic, the doable to the doubt-if-we-can-get-it-done. They all try to factor the uncertain external environment, which obviously includes Donald Trump’s economic agenda, specifically his tariffs. One can question whether the report does enough to explain to us how its reforms will adjust to variations in the external environment – the most obvious scenario being an escalation in China-US trade wars – but as the authors point out, such contingencies can only be categorised as “looming risks.”

Not being an economist, I can’t really comment on the viability of what the authors have proposed. I will say, however, that much of what they said has been said in many ways by many people before, and that so long as the country, the economy, and the government operate the way they are now, many others will continue to highlight them. The challenge lies in the balancing act that Sri Lanka must achieve now – maintaining stability while enabling transformative growth. The problem, however, is that not everyone is in agreement over what must be done to achieve that balance.

Of course, there is consensus over some issues, such as continuous engagement with the IMF. I come across as a critic of the IMF, but even I recognise that, given our state in mid-2022, there really wasn’t much of an alternative. Engagement with the IMF would have made more sense when our reserves were high – in late 2020 and 2021, when calls were made, by Opposition MPs, to go to the IMF. What happened in 2022 was an avoidable crash, but it happened, and there is nothing that can be done today to reverse it.aConsidering all this, what is the road ahead? Sustaining transformative growth makes several recommendations, economic, political, and geopolitical.

The economic prescriptions are those which have been made before: debt restructuring, privatisation, broadening of the tax base, and consensus over economic reforms. The political and geopolitical prescriptions are as important: among them, a recommendation to form an independent growth commission drawing on the lessons of South-East Asian economic giants. It is surprising not to see even a mention of BRICS – especially given the present geopolitical climate – but then, given Trump’s belligerent threats to that group, the authors may have felt it wiser not to harp on it as a way ahead for Sri Lanka. In any case, economists are debating what must be done with Trump’s tariffs: some argue we need to concede more to Washington, others contend that we need alternatives.

All in all, the report comes across as concise and succinct, qualities which documents of this sort usually do not have. However, the recommendations it makes underlie three distinct, but somewhat interrelated, challenges.

The first of these is the recognition of the political aspects of the crisis. As one political analyst implied at the launch of the report last week, countries caught up in a polycrisis of the sort we are now end up reverting to the old political order. The truth is that Sri Lanka will face debt repayments from 2027, and it will face elections in 2028/2029. What happens then is left to be seen, but the experience of other countries does not offer consolation, for the government or for those of us hoping for better days.

The second is the need to communicate these prescriptions and reforms, and why they are important, to the country at large. It is heartening to know that the report has incorporated the views of a diverse, representative segment, including not just trade and business associations and Colombo-based economists, but also students and Sinhala and Tamil language communities outside Colombo.

But to hear them out is not enough: one must also be mindful of their weltanschauung, however much it may differ from the conventional wisdoms of the economic and policy elite. As I found out for myself while working on Beena Sarwar’s documentary on the crisis, Sri Lanka Beyond the Headlines (2024), in far-off places people have very different views on issues like social security. Aswesuma, for instance, may be a roaring, visionary success for policy elites. But villagers view it with almost uniform hostility, saying that in depoliticising social security, they have been disconnected from the political process – a problem they say they did not face with Aswesuma’s predecessor, Samurdhi.

The third is the inadequate state of our education system. Our schools and universities do not produce thinkers; they produce rote-learners. As one person observed at the launch, university students do not seem to be curious enough about these matters. Such curiosity crops up only sporadically and temporarily; for instance, the constitutional crisis of 2018, which provoked people everywhere to think of the constitution, and the economic crisis of 2022, which got them to reflect on, discuss, and debate economics.

Yet in the longer run, people seem to lose interest in such topics. The corollary to this is that students tend to lap up everything they are told: there is hardly any attempt at questioning what is taught. Moreover, our economics departments remain outdated and ill-equipped to deal with the challenges of the present, and the future.

It is these three challenges that run across, and through, the policies, prescriptions, reforms, and recommendations in Sustaining transformative growth, and for better or worse, the authors leave them unanswered – perhaps because they cannot be answered in the first place. The truth is that economics cannot be discussed in isolation from politics, or for that matter geopolitics, and it cannot operate in an elite vacuum. Yet for far too long, this is how reforms have been discussed and implemented in Sri Lanka.

I suppose what I am trying to say here is that though it must remain in the hands of the experts, economic policy cannot always be the mainstay of economists: one must also consider the compulsions and motives that drive political decisions.

Now, it is true that political decisions do not always tally with economic practices. But in a country like ours, which has been a democracy for so long, there is no point pontificating on economic policy to the exclusion of politics. I know it is frustrating to reconcile the one to the other. Yet unless our political system transforms into what they have in East Asia – in particular countries like Vietnam, which are regularly celebrated by our economists – I do not see how we can enforce reforms without factoring politics in.

To be sure, such transformations come at a hefty price. As 2022 clearly demonstrated, if Sri Lankans feel dissatisfied with the electoral process, they will protest in the streets and throw governments out. This is a trend that has become apparent even in the technocratic states of South-East Asia. No amount of wishful, idealistic thinking can belie such developments – a point which reports such as these would do well to acknowledge.

The writer is a researcher and foreign policy and political analyst and commentator based in Sri Lanka. He can be reached at udakdev1@gmail.com.

All News Advertisement

Features

US’ drastic aid cut to UN poses moral challenge to world

Published

8 hours ago

2026/01/1

Thilina Walpola

An UN humanitarian mission in the Gaza. [File: Ashraf Amra/Anadolu Agency]

‘Adapt, shrink or die’ – thus runs the warning issued by the Trump administration to UN humanitarian agencies with brute insensitivity in the wake of its recent decision to drastically reduce to $2bn its humanitarian aid to the UN system. This is a substantial climb down from the $17bn the US usually provided to the UN for its humanitarian operations.

Considering that the US has hitherto been the UN’s biggest aid provider, it need hardly be said that the US decision would pose a daunting challenge to the UN’s humanitarian operations around the world. This would indeed mean that, among other things, people living in poverty and stifling material hardships, in particularly the Southern hemisphere, could dramatically increase. Coming on top of the US decision to bring to an end USAID operations, the poor of the world could be said to have been left to their devices as a consequence of these morally insensitive policy rethinks of the Trump administration.

Earlier, the UN had warned that it would be compelled to reduce its aid programs in the face of ‘the deepest funding cuts ever.’ In fact the UN is on record as requesting the world for $23bn for its 2026 aid operations.

If this UN appeal happens to go unheeded, the possibilities are that the UN would not be in a position to uphold the status it has hitherto held as the world’s foremost humanitarian aid provider. It would not be incorrect to state that a substantial part of the rationale for the UN’s existence could come in for questioning if its humanitarian identity is thus eroded.

Inherent in these developments is a challenge for those sections of the international community that wish to stand up and be counted as humanists and the ‘Conscience of the World.’ A responsibility is cast on them to not only keep the UN system going but to also ensure its increased efficiency as a humanitarian aid provider to particularly the poorest of the poor.

It is unfortunate that the US is increasingly opting for a position of international isolation. Such a policy position was adopted by it in the decades leading to World War Two and the consequences for the world as a result for this policy posture were most disquieting. For instance, it opened the door to the flourishing of dictatorial regimes in the West, such as that led by Adolph Hitler in Germany, which nearly paved the way for the subjugation of a good part of Europe by the Nazis.

If the US had not intervened militarily in the war on the side of the Allies, the West would have faced the distressing prospect of coming under the sway of the Nazis and as a result earned indefinite political and military repression. By entering World War Two the US helped to ward off these bleak outcomes and indeed helped the major democracies of Western Europe to hold their own and thrive against fascism and dictatorial rule.

Republican administrations in the US in particular have not proved the greatest defenders of democratic rule the world over, but by helping to keep the international power balance in favour of democracy and fundamental human rights they could keep under a tight leash fascism and linked anti-democratic forces even in contemporary times. Russia’s invasion and continued occupation of parts of Ukraine reminds us starkly that the democracy versus fascism battle is far from over.

Right now, the US needs to remain on the side of the rest of the West very firmly, lest fascism enjoys another unfettered lease of life through the absence of countervailing and substantial military and political power.

However, by reducing its financial support for the UN and backing away from sustaining its humanitarian programs the world over the US could be laying the ground work for an aggravation of poverty in the South in particular and its accompaniments, such as, political repression, runaway social discontent and anarchy.

What should not go unnoticed by the US is the fact that peace and social stability in the South and the flourishing of the same conditions in the global North are symbiotically linked, although not so apparent at first blush. For instance, if illegal migration from the South to the US is a major problem for the US today, it is because poor countries are not receiving development assistance from the UN system to the required degree. Such deprivation on the part of the South leads to aggravating social discontent in the latter and consequences such as illegal migratory movements from South to North.

Accordingly, it will be in the North’s best interests to ensure that the South is not deprived of sustained development assistance since the latter is an essential condition for social contentment and stable governance, which factors in turn would guard against the emergence of phenomena such as illegal migration.

Meanwhile, democratic sections of the rest of the world in particular need to consider it a matter of conscience to ensure the sustenance and flourishing of the UN system. To be sure, the UN system is considerably flawed but at present it could be called the most equitable and fair among international development organizations and the most far-flung one. Without it world poverty would have proved unmanageable along with the ills that come along with it.

Dehumanizing poverty is an indictment on humanity. It stands to reason that the world community should rally round the UN and ensure its survival lest the abomination which is poverty flourishes. In this undertaking the world needs to stand united. Ambiguities on this score could be self-defeating for the world community.

For example, all groupings of countries that could demonstrate economic muscle need to figure prominently in this initiative. One such grouping is BRICS. Inasmuch as the US and the West should shrug aside Realpolitik considerations in this enterprise, the same goes for organizations such as BRICS.

The arrival at the above international consensus would be greatly facilitated by stepped up dialogue among states on the continued importance of the UN system. Fresh efforts to speed-up UN reform would prove major catalysts in bringing about these positive changes as well. Also requiring to be shunned is the blind pursuit of narrow national interests.

Features

Egg white scene …

Published

8 hours ago

2026/01/1

Thilina Walpola

Hi! Great to be back after my Christmas break.

Thought of starting this week with egg white.

Yes, eggs are brimming with nutrients beneficial for your overall health and wellness, but did you know that eggs, especially the whites, are excellent for your complexion?

OK, if you have no idea about how to use egg whites for your face, read on.

Egg White, Lemon, Honey:

Separate the yolk from the egg white and add about a teaspoon of freshly squeezed lemon juice and about one and a half teaspoons of organic honey. Whisk all the ingredients together until they are mixed well.

Apply this mixture to your face and allow it to rest for about 15 minutes before cleansing your face with a gentle face wash.

Don’t forget to apply your favourite moisturiser, after using this face mask, to help seal in all the goodness.

Egg White, Avocado:

In a clean mixing bowl, start by mashing the avocado, until it turns into a soft, lump-free paste, and then add the whites of one egg, a teaspoon of yoghurt and mix everything together until it looks like a creamy paste.

Apply this mixture all over your face and neck area, and leave it on for about 20 to 30 minutes before washing it off with cold water and a gentle face wash.

Egg White, Cucumber, Yoghurt:

In a bowl, add one egg white, one teaspoon each of yoghurt, fresh cucumber juice and organic honey. Mix all the ingredients together until it forms a thick paste.

Apply this paste all over your face and neck area and leave it on for at least 20 minutes and then gently rinse off this face mask with lukewarm water and immediately follow it up with a gentle and nourishing moisturiser.

Egg White, Aloe Vera, Castor Oil:

To the egg white, add about a teaspoon each of aloe vera gel and castor oil and then mix all the ingredients together and apply it all over your face and neck area in a thin, even layer.

Leave it on for about 20 minutes and wash it off with a gentle face wash and some cold water. Follow it up with your favourite moisturiser.

Features

Confusion cropping up with Ne-Yo in the spotlight

Published

8 hours ago

2026/01/1

Thilina Walpola

Ne-Yo: His management should clarify the last-minute cancellation

Superlatives galore were used, especially on social media, to highlight R&B singer Ne-Yo’s trip to Sri Lanka: Global superstar Ne-Yo to perform live in Colombo this December; Ne-Yo concert puts Sri Lanka back on the global entertainment map; A global music sensation is coming to Sri Lanka … and there were lots more!

At an official press conference, held at a five-star venue, in Colombo, it was indicated that the gathering marked a defining moment for Sri Lanka’s entertainment industry as international R&B powerhouse and three-time Grammy Award winner Ne-Yo prepares to take the stage in Colombo this December.

What’s more, the occasion was graced by the presence of Sunil Kumara Gamage, Minister of Sports & Youth Affairs of Sri Lanka, and Professor Ruwan Ranasinghe, Deputy Minister of Tourism, alongside distinguished dignitaries, sponsors, and members of the media.

Shah Rukh Khan: Disappointed his fans in Sri Lanka

According to reports, the concert had received the official endorsement of the Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau, recognising it as a flagship initiative in developing the country’s concert economy by attracting fans, and media, from all over South Asia.

Nick Carter: His concert, too, was cancelled due to “Unforeseen circumstances

However, I had that strange feeling that this concert would not become a reality, keeping in mind what happened to Nick Carter’s Colombo concert – cancelled at the very last moment.

Carter issued a video message announcing he had to return to the USA due to “unforeseen circumstances” and a “family emergency”.

Though “unforeseen circumstances” was the official reason provided by Carter and the local organisers, there was speculation that low ticket sales may also have been a factor in the cancellation.

Well, “Unforeseen Circumstances” has cropped up again!

In a brief statement, via social media, the organisers of the Ne-Yo concert said the decision was taken due to “unforeseen circumstances and factors beyond their control.”

Ne-Yo, too, subsequently made an announcement, citing “Unforeseen circumstances.”

The public has a right to know what these “unforeseen circumstances” are, and who is to be blamed – the organisers or Ne-Yo!

Ne-Yo’s management certainly need to come out with the truth.

However, those who are aware of some of the happenings in the setup here put it down to poor ticket sales, mentioning that the tickets for the concert, and a meet-and-greet event, were exorbitantly high, considering that Ne-Yo is not a current mega star.

We also had a cancellation coming our way from Shah Rukh Khan, who was scheduled to visit Sri Lanka for the City of Dreams resort launch, and then this was received: “Unfortunately due to unforeseen personal reasons beyond his control, Mr. Khan is no longer able to attend.”

Referring to this kind of mess up, a leading showbiz personality said that it will only make people reluctant to buy their tickets, online.

“Tickets will go mostly at the gate and it will be very bad for the industry,” he added.