Statistical ruse backfires
Monday 16th August, 2021
Sri Lanka’s Covid-19 case-fatality rate (about 5%) has exceeded the global average (1.4%), according to media reports. This rate may look accurate, given the officially confirmed cases, but there is reason to believe that it is misleading; many cases have gone undetected, and if testing is stepped up, the morbidity rate will increase exponentially, bringing the case-fatality rate down. The fatality figures, however, remain undisputed, and, therefore, could be considered reliable.
The Health Ministry stands accused of trying to hide the severity of the pandemic from the public, for political reasons, by not increasing the number of PCR tests conducted a day so as to keep the number of daily cases low, but its action has made the world consider Sri Lanka an extremely dangerous place.
The process of collecting Covid-19 data and tabulating them is not that complex, though somewhat difficult, due to the geographical distribution of the pandemic and the inefficiency of the state service. Doctors and other health workers have pointed out that the number of tests conducted daily is woefully inadequate for them to get a clear picture of the spread of the pandemic; they have called for aggressive testing, which is a prerequisite for controlling Covid-19. But these calls have gone unheeded.
President of the College of Medical Laboratory Science (CMLS) Ravi Kumudesh has told this newspaper that the number of PCR tests conducted daily is insufficient, and it can be increased to 50,000 a day easily. Pointing out that the state sector labs have about 36 Rapid PCR machines capable of giving test results in less than two hours, and detecting viruses other than SARS-CoV-2, he has said the members of his association are awaiting the government’s nod to go into overdrive. The Health Ministry ought to explain why the full potential of the state sector laboratories has not been tapped to fight the pandemic effectively. Is it that some health bigwigs are colluding with their private sector cronies notorious for various rackets? They also made the government-run Covid-19 testing facility at the Bandaranaike International Airport idle so that the samples collected from foreigners and others could be sent to some private labs.
Thousands of Covid-19 patients receiving homecare are encouraged to purchase pulse oximeters to check their blood oxygen levels themselves, and the question is why the Rapid Antigen Test kits are not made available freely for the people to test themselves at home. Self-testing should have preceded homecare for pandemic patients. This will help increase the number of daily tests so that more cases could be detected, isolated and treated to curb the rapid transmission of the Delta variant. Countries such as the UK, the US, Singapore and India are promoting self-testing by making available Rapid Antigen Test kits, which cost about INR 200 a piece in India. The government can import them and sell them through the Osusala outlets to prevent the private health mudalalis from fleecing the pandemic-hit public. It should be able to do so if its leaders are not in league with the unscrupulous businessmen who thrive on the misery of the sick.
If the exiting PRC and Rapid PCR machines in the state sector are fully utilised with the people being provided with Rapid Antigen Test kits, about 100,000 persons could be tested daily, the CMLS informs us. Will the government care to do so promptly and save lives?
The task of bringing down Covid-19 deaths as well as the case-fatality rate also requires the acceleration of the vaccination drive, imposing strict movement restrictions and ensuring that the people abide by the health regulations. The government is expected to bring in new laws to enforce the existing health regulations more virtuously, we are told. The need for such stringent action cannot be overemphasised because not many people follow Covid-19 protocol voluntarily.
Ideally, the country should be closed. This is what the World Health Organization, and Sri Lankan medical experts have recommended. The government is under pressure to impose lockdowns and a quarantine curfew at least for two weeks, and vaccinate as many people as possible during that period. But one should not lose sight of the huge socio-economic costs of lockdowns.
Developed nations can afford lockdowns and therefore impose them at the first sign of trouble. If this country is closed again, there will be more job losses besides economic hardships. Many private sector institutions are already on the brink of going belly up. Having chosen to control the pandemic while keeping the country open, the government finds itself in an unenviable position. There should be funds, especially foreign exchange, for pandemic control, and what the situation would be like if the economy collapsed at this juncture is not difficult to imagine. In a worst-case scenario, the public sector employees will also face pay cuts; they may not even get paid, at all; hospitals will be without drugs and there will be shortages of all essential commodities. Such a situation will be inevitable unless everyone realises the gravity of the health crisis and fully co-operates to stop the spread of the destructive virus.
Head of the Public Health Inspectors’ Association Upul Rohana, who is au fait with the ground situation, has called upon the public to restrict their movements for their own sake. There is no reason why the people cannot do so to save their own lives as well as those of their dear ones, without waiting till the government imposes lockdowns.
Honorable MP in the Customs net
Whether they will admit it or not, politicians in the country are well aware that they are not top of the pops where public opinion is concerned. Few people rate politicians positively although there are many exceptions. Last week’s gold and smartphone smuggling detection at the Bandaranaike International Airport served to aggravate this assessment. Puttalam District MP Ali Sabri Raheem arriving from Dubai was detected, on a tip off, by customs and found carrying contraband worth Rs. 75 million.
Telephones hummed and he was able to reach the highest in the land who reportedly promised to “go into the matter.” Thankfully, he got no respite, the contraband was confiscated and he was slapped with a fine of Rs. 7.4 million which was quickly paid. Raheem was free within hours and was able to be present in Parliament to vote against the government motion to sack Janaka Ratnayake, the Chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL).
He went over national television to plead his innocence blaming an unnamed golaya for the crime. This worthy, the MP claimed, had packed their bags and the politician said he did not know what went into them. That, of course, is a story that will be hard to sell. People are not as gullible as Raheem would like to believe. Though photographs of customs officers posing with the contraband detected have been widely published, the public is totally ignorant of many relevant details of this detection. In the first instance, who was this person who accompanied the MP? Was he a paid member of the MP’s staff? Was the contraband found only in the MP’s baggage or was it divided between the two passengers’ bags? If so, was the golaya, who the MP has publicly blamed for the scandal also been questioned and what did he say? Queries on all these matters and more remain unanswered and only the tip of the iceberg has surfaced.
Predictably there have been many developments since the smelly stuff hit the fan. It was reported on Friday that some 20 MPs, mostly belonging to opposition parties, have handed a letter to the speaker requesting an investigation. They have rightly said that a scandal of these proportions would result in all parliamentarians being tarred with the same brush in the court of public opinion. The cynic would say that they need ot bother on this score as this has already happened in the public mind, with politicians and not only parliamentarians, having been negatively viewed long before the newest scandal broke.
Be that as it may, we wonder whether the speaker has any role in such matters. MPs are very conscious of their rights and privileges and there have been occasions where the speaker’s permission – he is the custodian of such rights and privileges – were obtained before an MP is questioned by police in the case of an investigation. This has been demanded on occasions when need for such questioning arose. There is also a code of conduct for parliamentarians adopted in March 2018. Clearly the recent smuggling matter would (or should) be caught up it that.
People could well ask whether hurling missiles, throwing chilli flakes in the parliamentary chamber and not allowing the speaker to take his seat and perform his functions do not come within the ambit of the code. If it does, why did not what happened in the House during the “October Revolution” of 2018 when then President Maithripala Sirisena sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and installed Mahinda Rajapaksa in his stead, come under the glare of that well-intentioned but seemingly impotent code?
Apart from the demand that the speaker looks into Raheem’s conduct and take appropriate action, Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka has seen a deeper conspiracy. He alleged on Thursday that the MP, free of the customs clutches, rushing to parliament post-haste to vote against the resolution to remove the PUCSL Chairman from his post was a government plot to lump Raheem with the opposition! That worthy himself is on record saying he voted against the government as there was nobody to help when he needed assistance. “So why should I vote for that government?”, he asked
Criminals are usually not apprehended committing a first offence. The fact that somebody knew that something was going on and was able to tip off the customs suggests that this recent detection is not a one off. Why should Members of Parliament be issued diplomatic passports and accorded VIP facilities at the airport? What differentiates them from ordinary people whose votes catapulted them into positions of privilege with perks galore at the taxpayer’s expense? Tipping off customs is, of course, a lucrative business with fat reward entitlements. Whoever blew that whistle which felled the MP will benefit tidily. Let us hope that such a person does not get a bullet in his head from a motorcycle gunman for his pains as is becoming all too common today in this island of ours.
A question was also asked in parliament why the fine imposed was relatively modest considering the value of the contraband. We believe that the law permits a fine three times the value of the smuggled goods. In this instance it had been a mere 10 percent. State Minister of Finance Ranjit Siyambalapitiya had replied that the fine that was slapped was highest for such offences in recent times.
Admittedly a fine of over Rs. 200 million might never have been collected. Such fines seldom are. Of course the confiscation of the contraband would have cost somebody very big bucks. Couriers are widely used for smuggling via passenger baggage and how tight a hold the customs has on this business method that is widespread is anybody’s guess.
It’s asset disclosures, stupid!
Saturday 27th May, 2023
SJB MP Eran Wickramaratne has called upon the former Presidents of Sri Lanka to make public their asset disclosures and thereby set an example to others. He has said there are two ex-Presidents in the House––Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena––and they should lead by example. One cannot but endorse his call, which was made during yesterday’s parliamentary debate on proposed amendments to the Declaration of Assets and Liabilities Act. The question however is whether the ex-Presidents, or other politicians for that matter, will ever want to disclose their assets truthfully, and run the risk of landing themselves in trouble in the process.
There are said to be lies, damned lies, and statistics. One can replace ‘statistics’ with ‘the declarations of assets and liabilities’ where Sri Lankan political leaders are concerned. It is nothing but naïve to expect our politicians, to whom deception is second nature, to be truthful when they declare their assets, most of which are ill-gotten, as is public knowledge. Truthful asset disclosures will serve as self-indictments, given the sheer amount of wealth they are believed to have amassed and stashed away in offshore accounts.
Power and wealth are conjoined twins in this country. Politicians who savour power for a few years are set for life. One may recall that Rs. 17.8 million was found at the President’s House in the immediate aftermath of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster, last year. This alone is proof that the Sri Lankan Presidents are never short of cash. Heaps of money were reduced to ashes in some ruling party MPs’ houses which came under arson attacks, last year, according to media reports. Therefore, it defies comprehension why the MPs and former Presidents should be given pensions. This is something that the Opposition should take up if it is genuinely concerned about state funds.
Sri Lanka may be the only country where the state looks after failed leaders even in retirement. The current economic crisis is not of recent origin; the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration only worsened it and precipitated the country’s bankruptcy. The economy deteriorated for decades under successive governments, which were characterised by waste and corruption. The blame for the country’s bankruptcy should therefore be apportioned to all Presidents, both elected and appointed, since 1978, albeit to varying degrees. Instead of being made to pay for their sins against the country, they are looked after at the expense of the public and provided with houses, vehicles and security by the state, when they leave office. They have the wherewithal to look after themselves, and public funds must not be wasted. Will the Opposition take up this issue as well?
Babes in arms!
Friday 26th May, 2023
Our honourable MPs would have us believe that they are as innocent as unborn babies and butter wouldn’t melt in their mouths. Ali Sabry Raheem, who was nabbed by the Customs, on Tuesday, for trying to smuggle in more than 3.5 kilos of gold and 91 mobile phones, and fined Rs. 7.4 million, has sought to protest his innocence! Blaming one of his assistants for the botched smuggling attempt, he has claimed that he did not know what was inside his bags. Why should he try to insult the intelligence of the public in this manner? The people do not vote wisely, but they are not so stupid as to buy into Raheem’s claim.
MP Raheem voted against the government’s move to remove Public Utilities Commission Chairman Janaka Ratnayake, in Parliament, on Wednesday. He said he had done so because the government had not responded to his appeal for help to clear his name when he was nabbed at the BIA the previous day. But we think he has left something unsaid. No MP in the good books of government leaders is ever made to undergo Customs checks, much less taken into custody in the BIA VIP lounge, of all places.
One may recall that even senior Tigers were allowed to bring in loads and loads of undeclared goods into the country via the BIA, during the UNP-led UNF government (2001-2004) because the LTTE had struck a deal with that regime. Those terrorists who had attacked the BIA and caused massive losses to the tune of billions of rupees were even treated to BBQ dinners by the then airport manager. During the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, Mervyn of Kelaniya escorted a wanted drug lord called Kudu Lal through the BIA, and ensured that the latter emplaned to Dubai safely while the STF was looking for him.
The BIA being a place where even such dangerous criminals are given VVIP treatment thanks to the intervention of powerful politicians, a ruling party MP will never be nabbed by the Customs unless he or she has fallen out with the government. So, there is reason to believe that MP Raheem had planned to vote with the Opposition, on Wednesday; the government had got wind of it, and that is why he was left in the lurch.
MP Raheem cannot be the only politician involved in smuggling and other such illegal activities, and therefore, the need for thorough checks to be conducted on all those who use the BIA VIP lounge cannot be overstated. Entourages of government leaders are usually whisked past the Customs without any checks, we are told. This practice has to end forthwith.
There has been a severe erosion of public trust in Parliament, and the presence of lawbreakers among the MPs is one of the reasons for this sorry state of affairs. One wonders whether political parties handpick notorious characters such as smugglers, bootleggers, chain snatchers, cattle rustlers and killers to contest elections. The public votes for the lowest of the low in politics, and then takes to the streets, demanding a ‘system change’, and asking all 225 MPs to go home.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, as an Opposition MP, told the members of the current Parliament some home truths. In one of his speeches, he dwelt on anti-politics and the deterioration of parliamentary standards. In response to a call for all the MPs to be dumped into the Diyawanna lake, he jokingly said something to the effect that it would be a mistake to do so because even the waters of the Kelani Ganga would be polluted in such an eventuality.
Many a true word is said to be spoken in jest! He, as the President, is now in a position to take corrective action. There is no way the government could justify having within its ranks an MP fined for his involvement in a smuggling racket. There are many other racketeers in the incumbent regime and they, too, will have to be got rid of if public faith is to be restored in Parliament.
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