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Sri Lanka’s economy walks a tightrope between growth and risk

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Despite the positive indicators, there are growing concerns about foreign flows to the stock market

In the latest economic indicators report, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka has painted a picture of an economy showing some encouraging signs while grappling with significant challenges.

The Island Financial Review asked an economic analyst to explain the latest indicators to help understand what they mean for everyday Sri Lankans. His analysis is as follows:

Positive Indicators

= Government Revenue:

For the first seven months of 2025, government revenue has increased significantly, reaching Rs. 2,734.9 billion compared to Rs. 2,161.8 billion in the same period last year. This suggests improved tax collection and economic activity.

=Credit to the Private Sector:

Outstanding credit to the private sector grew by 19.6% year-on-year, amounting to Rs. 201.5 billion in July 2025. This indicates that businesses are borrowing more, potentially leading to expansion and job creation.

=Monetary Conditions:

The Average Weighted Call Money Rate remained stable at 7.86%, suggesting a balanced liquidity situation in the banking sector.

=Foreign Currency Reserves:

Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves are estimated at USD 6,166 million, bolstered by arrangements such as the swap with the People’s Bank of China. This provides a cushion against external shocks.

Underlying Issues

= Investor Confidence:

Despite the positive indicators, there are growing concerns about investor confidence. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) fell by 0.03% during the week, reflecting hesitancy among investors. The S&P SL 20 Index also dropped by 1.19%, indicating uncertainty in the stock market. These indices show even more negative trends Month-to-Date and Year-to-Date.

=Government Debt:

The total outstanding central government debt has increased to Rs. 29,436.6 billion, raising concerns about sustainability. The reliance on debt to finance government operations could pose risks for future economic stability.

=Workers’ Remittances:

Workers’ remittances fell from USD 697.3 million in July to USD 680.8 million in August 2025. This decrease could impact household incomes and overall consumption in the economy.

=Local Currency:

The Sri Lankan rupee has depreciated by 3.2% against the US dollar Year-to-Date, which can lead to higher costs for imported goods and inflationary pressures.

When asked to sum up his take on the economic outlook, he stated, “According to the data points, the government’s reliance on domestic financing significantly has eased in the first seven months of 2025, with net borrowing falling by over 23% compared to the same period in 2024. This improvement in the fiscal position has been further underscored by a sharp reversal in foreign financing, which shifted from a net inflow of Rs. 83.4 bn to a net repayment of Rs. 45.6 bn, reflecting reduced external borrowing needs and a focus on debt consolidation.

Furthermore, the Central Bank’s net purchase of USD 142.5 million in August 2025 indicates a building of foreign exchange reserves, which is a positive signal for external sector stability and suggests a potential strengthening of the country’s balance of payments. However, as the Central Bank continues to highlight the favorable indicators, it is crucial for policymakers to address the underlying issues that threaten economic stability.

Although the improvement in key indicators demonstrates successful fiscal consolidation, the ultimate test lies in whether this can catalyse a rebound in foreign investor confidence and generate significant foreign inflows, which are critical for robust economic growth.”

By Sanath Nanayakkare ✍️



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Sri Lanka sees silver lining in ties with Russia and Britain amid Middle East shocks

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As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to unsettle global energy and trade flows, Sri Lanka appears to be finding a degree of resilience by deepening economic engagement with partners such as Russia and the United Kingdom.

Recent diplomatic and trade developments suggest Colombo is positioning itself to benefit from both energy cooperation with Moscow and expanded export opportunities in the British market, potentially softening the impact of external shocks on its fragile economy.

During talks in Colombo last week, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath met visiting Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko, with both sides reaffirming their commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.

Rudenko has described the island as a long-standing friend of Russia and pledged support in several key areas, including oil supplies, investment promotion, and tourism cooperation.

The assurance of energy support comes at a time when global oil markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions and shifting sanctions regimes. Russia indicated it was prepared to assist Sri Lanka with oil supplies if needed, though Rudenko earlier clarified at a policy discussion that Moscow prefers long-term contractual supply arrangements rather than short-term spot deals arising from temporary market disruptions.

For Sri Lanka, which has faced severe fuel shortages in the recent past, such arrangements could offer greater stability in energy procurement during periods of global uncertainty.

Russia also signalled interest in encouraging its investors to explore opportunities in Sri Lanka and increasing tourist arrivals, while expressing readiness to provide compensation for Sri Lankan war veterans who lost their lives while serving in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Colombo, in turn, emphasized the historic nature of the relationship. Herath noted that the two countries share nearly seven decades of diplomatic ties, adding that the current moment presents an opportunity to expand cooperation through longer-term trade and economic agreements.

While Russia offers potential relief on the energy front, Sri Lanka is simultaneously gaining a competitive edge in exports through new trade arrangements with Britain.

Under the revised Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS) introduced by the United Kingdom in January 2026, Sri Lanka’s apparel sector – the country’s largest export industry – stands to benefit significantly.

The scheme eases rules of origin requirements, allowing exporters greater flexibility in sourcing raw materials while still maintaining preferential access to the UK market. For Sri Lankan manufacturers, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, this change addresses a longstanding constraint that had limited their ability to compete with larger regional producers.

Industry participants say the reform could improve pricing competitiveness, shorten production lead times, and allow exporters to respond more effectively to the fast-moving demands of global apparel buyers.

Apparel exporter Joe Jayawardena noted that while the scheme provides duty concessions for developing economies, its most valuable feature is the commercial flexibility it offers producers. With more freedom in sourcing fabrics and inputs, Sri Lankan exporters can negotiate more effectively on price, delivery schedules and product specifications – factors that often determine whether orders are secured in the global fashion supply chain.

For Sri Lanka’s economy, the convergence of these developments could provide a modest but important buffer against global turbulence.

Energy cooperation with Russia may help stabilise supply during volatile periods, while enhanced access to the British market could strengthen export momentum in one of Sri Lanka’s most important trading sectors.

An independent economic analyst told this reporter that the offers coming from both countries would be widely welcomed in Sri Lanka, as they are driven primarily by mutual trade interests rather than by deeper strategic or political considerations.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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John Keells Foundation marks its 21st anniversary with a redesigned website and new Volunteer App

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Krishan Balendra, Chairperson of the John Keells Group launches the redesigned website

John Keells Foundation (JKF), the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) entity of the John Keells Group, announced the unveiling of its redesigned website and plans to launch a new Volunteer App as it marked its 21st anniversary of incorporation on 28th March 2026.

The redesigned website was symbolically launched by Krishan Balendra, Chairperson of the John Keells Group, in the presence of the JKF’s Management Committee comprising the Group Head of CSR, JKF Project Champions, Sector CSR Coordinators, the JKF team and associated Centre functions personnel.

 Speaking at the website launch, Krishan Balendra said, “I am happy to note features in the redesigned website which amplify the voices of beneficiaries and partners and ease overall navigation, strengthening how JKF connects with our multiple stakeholders. Meanwhile, the new Volunteer App has potential to reach our 15,000+ employees through a dynamic and personalised interface and critically enhance Group-wide data collation and reporting on volunteerism. Both these innovations are meaningful ways of marking JKF’s 21st year, demonstrating how JKF continues to evolve strategically.”

Established in 2005 as a pioneer CSR entity in Sri Lanka, JKF has over the past 21 years, evolved as a dominant force in corporate responsibility, demonstrating how corporates can play a pivotal role in social development through a multi-stakeholder approach. JKF’s dedicated website has since its launch in 2016 served as a vital platform to communicate its wide‑ranging initiatives implemented under the John Keells CSR vision of `Empowering the Nation for Tomorrow’.

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IBH Real Estate celebrates six years of growth

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Romesh Abeysekera

IBH Real Estate marks six years in business this year, having grown from a modest venture founded in 2020 by Romesh Abeysekera into a trusted name in Sri Lanka’s property sector.

The company has built a reputation for serving high-net-worth individuals and investors, particularly in the luxury segment, while offering advisory and legal support beyond standard brokerage.

Abeysekera said the firm’s progress has been driven by trust and long-term client relationships. IBH has also attracted growing international interest in Sri Lanka’s real estate market, bridging local expertise with global investor expectations. The company aims to further strengthen its industry position moving forward.

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