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South Asia to remain fastest growing region: ADB

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) last week said South Asia was likely to hang on to its fast growth despite fresh outbreaks of COVID-19, with 9.5% overall economic expansion and Sri Lanka projected to grow by 4.1% this year. 

South Asia will have developing Asia’s fastest growth this year after suffering the region’s sharpest contraction in 2020. Aggregate output is forecast to expand by 9.5% in 2021, with growth tapering to 6.6% in 2022, the ADB said in its flagship Outlook report. 

South Asia’s largely reflects the performance of India, which will rebound from an 8% contraction in fiscal year 2020 and grow by 11% and 7% in this and the following fiscal year.

 A stimulus-fuelled surge in the US – India’s largest export market – will support the revival, but a severe second COVID-19 wave is threatening the recovery. 

Economic activity in Afghanistan, Nepal, and Pakistan will also rise as tight containment restrictions are lifted, with buoyant remittances stimulating growth in Nepal and Pakistan. Sri Lanka’s challenging macroeconomic situation will likely moderate growth in 2022 but is forecast to grow at 4.1% in 2021. However, this is lower than Government projections of 5.5%-6%. 

Growth recovery is dependent on an expansive budget and stronger global demand with a marked rebound expected in the major advanced economies, as well as from a base effect following contraction in 2020. 

“Growth is projected to slow somewhat to 3.6% in 2022. Building on growth momentum in Q3 and Q4 2020, the Purchasing Managers’ Index, a leading indicator of economic activity, moved strongly into expansionary territory above 50 in the three months to March 2021, with manufacturing above 60 and services in the high-50s,” the report said. 

Growth will benefit in the near term from increased private consumption as pent-up demand is released, and consumption and investment will benefit from low interest rates and ample liquidity. 

Progress on the Colombo Port City special economic zone is expected to foster Foreign Direct Investment, as does development in the Hambantota Industrial Zone. The Government’s reform priorities include deregulation to simplify governance structure, improvements to the Judiciary, Customs efficiency, financial sector regulation, and effective land use.



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SLPP MP Namal Rajapaksa arrested by CIABOC

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(File pic)

Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)  Member of Parliament Namal Rajapaksa has been arrested by the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC).

Namal Rajapaksa had been  summoned by CIABOC  to provide a statement in connection with investigations into the controversial Airbus deal. He was subsequently arrested by CIABOC after recording his statement for over 5 hours.

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Sun directly overhead Nittambuwa, Algama, Malwana, Aranayake, Meegahakiula and Panamkadu about 12.09 noon today (04)

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The sun is going to be directly over the latitudes of Sri Lanka from 28th of August to 07th of September due to its apparent southward relative motion.

The nearest places of Sri Lanka over which the sun is overhead today (04) are Nittambuwa, Algama, Malwana, Aranayake, Meegahakiula and Panamkadu about 12.09 noon.

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Norochcholai digs into dwindling coal stocks, two units slash generation

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Plant’s output cut from 270 MW to 140 MW amidst dwindling stocks; energy analysts warn system remains “at a razor’s edge”

By Ifham Nizam

The Norochcholai coal-fired power plant is now digging into the last dredges of its coal stock, with two operational units forced to slash generation from around 270 MW to just 140 MW on Sunday as the plant ran critically short of fuel, according to independent energy analysts and sources familiar with the National System Operator (NSO).

The sudden reduction of approximately 130 MW in coal generation has once again exposed the fragile state of the country’s power supply arrangements, with the plant understood to have coal stocks sufficient only until Friday night.

“This is not how a coal plant is expected to operate. They are digging up the last dredges of coal from the plant,” an independent energy analyst told The Island.

The analyst questioned why the units had been allowed to reach this stage without earlier intervention, arguing that at least one unit should have been deloaded around 10 days ago to conserve the remaining coal.

Had that been done, the analyst said, the country could also have reduced its dependence on more expensive diesel-fired generation during the period when

coal stocks were being conserved.

The latest NSO generation figures highlight the continuing pressure on the system.

Around 7 p.m. on Sunday, when the night peak was reached, total demand stood at 2,552.7 MW. Coal contributed only 282 MW, while major hydro accounted for 1,215.8 MW and thermal-oil generation for 791.9 MW.

The night peak of 2,552.7 MW was substantially higher than the daytime peak of 2,246 MW, according to the NSO Generation Summary for August 30.

The most immediate concern is the remaining coal stock at Norochcholai.

Sources said the plant has coal only to Friday night, making the timing of the next shipment critical.

The first shipment under the emergency arrangement is expected to arrive on Friday, September 4, but the coal unloading will have to begin on the same day if

the power plant is to continue operating without further significant deloading.

That creates another potential vulnerability, with rough sea conditions posing an additional challenge to unloading operations.

Energy sector sources said that even the arrival of the September 4 shipment would not completely eliminate the danger.

The next shipment under the new coal tender would need to commence unloading around September 15. Any significant delay beyond that could again force the Norochcholai units to operate at reduced output.

“We are still at a razor’s edge”

The independent energy analyst said the situation should not be viewed merely as a question of whether a particular vessel arrives on time.

The situation also means that any further reduction in coal generation could have a direct impact on the use of oil-fired power generation, potentially increasing the cost of electricity generation.

The latest NSO figures already show the important role being played by thermal-oil generation during the evening peak, when demand rises sharply.

The analyst questioned the rationale behind allowing the coal units to continue operating at higher loading until stocks reached critically low levels instead of taking measures earlier to stretch the available inventory.

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