Business
Revenue decline puts pressure on govt’s fiscal management
Moves underway to strengthen gross official reserves
Seeking support from IMF ruled out
by Sanath Nanayakkare
As government revenues have fallen below expected levels, fiscal management of the government is under pressure, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, State Minister of Finance, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms said in Colombo yesterday.
He made this remark while speaking at a media briefing held at the Ministry of Finance.
“Although a sovereign bond of USD one billion needs to be settled this month, the actual outflow would be USD 700 million as Sri Lankan citizens own a share of USD 300 million of it. The current reserves are at USD 4 billion. After making this payment, the reserves will technically remain at USD 3 billion. Agreements have been arrived at with People’s Bank of China for a SWAP loan of USD 1.5 billion. In addition, the foreign exchange reserves will have contributions from Bangladesh Bank (SWAP) – USD 200 million, Reserve Bank of India (SWAP) USD 400 million. IMF (SDR allocation) USD 780 million and China Development Bank (Balance Loan) USD 200 million,” he said.
“In the next six months, the Central Bank will purchase USD 500 million from the forex market to consolidate the gross official reserves,” he said.
Further, a number of bilateral discussions are underway including for a USD 500 million syndicated loan while the Central Bank Governor has forecast a decline of imports by USD 700 million. he said.
The state minister said that the government has been able to collect only 34% of the government revenue in the first six months while 48% of the allocated recurrent expenditure has been spent during the period and 30% of the capital expenditure has already been invested in projects.
“Although the exchange rate is Rs. 200 to a USD, further depreciation is possible. The reasons for this are; reluctance of the exporters to convert their forex earnings and importers acting swiftly to import goods to top up their stocks for a longer time than it is necessary,” he said.
Further speaking he said,” The economy weakened from 2015 to 2019. Growth rate declined to 2.3% from 6.8%. Per capita income reported only a slight increase of USD 33 from USD 3,819 to USD 3,852. Gross Domestic Product was up by only USD 4 billion from USD 80 billion to USD 84 billion. Debt to GDP ratio increased to 87% from 72%. The debt stock increased to Rs.13 trillion from Rs. 7.5 trillion. The government’s interest expenditure in proportion to GDP increased to 6% from 4.2%. Due to rupee depreciation during the period, the debt stock rose by Rs. 1772 billion. Sovereign bond interest rate increased to 7.8% from 5.8%. Exports remained at an average of USD 11.1 billion while the trade deficit increased to USD 9.3 billion from USD 7.6 billion. Although sovereign bonds to the tune of USD 12 billion had been issued during the five years, foreign exchange reserved declined to USD 7.6 billion from USD 8.2 billion. The budget deficit increased to 9.6% from from 5.7%. Employed persons reduced to 8.2 million from 8.4 million. Central Bank’s treasury bill holdings shot up to Rs. 75 billion from zero. Rupee to USD exchange rate depreciated by 39% from Rs. 131 to Rs. 182. USD 3,089 million worth of Central Bank reserves were sold to maintain the value of the rupee. If this had not been done, foreign exchange reserves would have remained at USD 10.7 billion. The country’s credit rating downgraded to B (Negative) from BB- (Stable) – four notches during the period. Foreign debt versus domestic debt shifted to 48:52 from 42:58. From 2015 to 2019, government revenue was up by 65%, but as interest rates were high amid low growth, that advantage slipped through.”
“When Covid-19 hit Sri Lanka in 2020, in spite of the resilience some sectors of the economy had shown, the overall economy further weakened. As the economy had been completely shut for 66 days, it led to a negative growth of 3.6% while per capita income declined to USD 3,682 with the lowering of GDP to USD 81 billion. Debt to GDP increased to 101% from 87% while the debt stock increased to Rs.15.1 trillion from Rs. 13 trillion, therefore, interest expenditure was up by 6.5% to GDP in spite of low interest rate.”
Due to rupee depreciation, the debt stock increased by Rs. 356 billion. The repayment of USD 1 billion sovereign bond, the loss of income from Tourism around USD 3.5 billion, foreign exchange reserves fell to USD 5.7 billion from USD 7.6 billion. The impact of Covid-19 saw a spike in expenditure by about Rs. 100 billion while the government revenue declined, hence the budget deficit increased to 11.1%. The rupee depreciated 2.6% versus the USD to Rs. 187. However, the Central Bank bought USD 283 million from the forex market, and in 2021, the Bank has bought USD 130 million up to now. While the credit rating was downgraded to CCC(Stable) foreign debt to local debt ratio turned favourable by becoming 40:60 from 48:52. Low interest rate in 2020 brought some relief to the overall economy while the government also gained from it. Although exports were down to USD 10 billion, thanks to import controls, the trade balance was reduced to USD 6 billion.”
The state minister said that although there is a challenge to managing the economy, the government would not run away from its responsibility and would restore it a point where there is space for Sri Lanka to make a favourable turnaround with expected non-debt creating inflows to the Port City, Hambantota Industrial Zone, Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Zone, and last but not least with Sri Lanka Tourism reopening its boarders for the lucrative industry as the vaccine rollout is progressing well.
He empasised the fact that the government would not look to the IMF to get any help from it as those who recommend it want the government to get into difficulty as we would have to fall in line with IMF’s stringent economic recipe and conditions which come in hand in hand with their support.
Business
‘Sri Lanka’s forests are undervalued economic assets — and markets are paying the price’
Sri Lanka’s economic strategy continues to focus on exports, productivity and fiscal consolidation.
Yet one of the country’s most valuable assets — its forests and traditional forest-based farming systems — remains largely absent from economic planning. This is no longer an environmental oversight. It is a business risk.
At a recent Dilmah Genesis Thought Leadership Series lecture in Colombo, tropical ecology expert Professor Friedhelm Goeltenboth delivered a clear message: once forests are destroyed, the economic value they provide is lost permanently.
What replaces them — monoculture plantations — may appear efficient, but over time they generate declining yields, rising input costs and growing exposure to climate shocks.
From a financial perspective, this is asset depletion, not development.
Monoculture systems simplify production but externalise costs. Soil erosion, fertiliser dependency, water stress and biodiversity loss eventually hit farmers, banks, insurers and the state.
Sri Lanka is already seeing the consequences through falling productivity and rising agricultural vulnerability.
Forest-integrated farming offers a different model — one that treats land as a multi-income asset.
Spices such as cinnamon, pepper, cardamom and nutmeg can be grown under shade alongside fruit, timber and fibre crops, stabilising income while protecting soil and water. For lenders and insurers, diversified systems reduce risk. For exporters, they support traceability, sustainability certification and premium pricing.
The strongest business opportunity lies in carbon markets. Voluntary carbon markets allow companies to offset emissions by funding verified forest conservation and restoration.
Across Southeast Asia, communities now earn income simply by protecting forests that store carbon.
Sri Lanka has the scientific capacity to enter this space. Farmers can collect data; experts can certify it. What is missing is a coordinated national framework that allows communities and corporates to participate efficiently.
Carbon revenue will not replace agriculture, but it can stabilise it — providing income during crop maturation and creating a new form of export: environmental services.
Ignoring this opportunity carries downside risk.
Biodiversity loss, pollinator decline and climate volatility threaten long-term agricultural productivity. Forests are not sentimental assets; they are economic infrastructure.
Sri Lanka’s recovery cannot be built on short-term extraction. If the country wants resilient growth, it must start recognising the real value of what is still standing, he added.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
Pavan Rathnayake earns plaudits of batting coach
Sri Lanka batting coach Vikram Rathour has hailed middle-order batter Pavan Rathnayake as one of the finest players of spin in the modern game, saying the youngster’s nimble footwork and velvet touch were a “breath of fresh air” for a side long troubled by the turning ball.
Drafted in for the second T20I after Sri Lanka’s familiar struggles against spin, Rathnayake looked anything but overawed by England’s seasoned tweakers, skipping down the track with sure feet and working the ball into gaps with soft hands.
“He is one of the better players when it comes to using the feet,” Rathour told reporters. “I haven’t seen too many in this generation do it as well as he does. That is really impressive and a good sign for Sri Lankan cricket.”
Sri Lanka went down in a last-over nail-biter but there were silver linings despite the hosts being a bowler short. Eshan Malinga was forced out after dislocating his left shoulder and has been ruled out for at least four weeks, a blow that ends his World Cup hopes. Dilshan Madushanka, Pramod Madushan and Nuwan Thushara have been placed on standby.
Power hitting remains Sri Lanka’s Achilles’ heel and Rathour, who carries an impressive CV from India’s T20 World Cup triumph two years ago, pointed to a few grey areas in the batting blueprint.
“There are two components to T20 batting,” he said. “One is power hitting, but the surfaces here, especially in Colombo, are not that conducive to clearing the ropes. The wickets are slow and the ball doesn’t come on to the bat. The other component, just as important, is range as a batting unit.”
Even when Sri Lanka lifted the T20 World Cup in 2014 they were not blessed with a dressing room full of big hitters, relying instead on sharp running, clever placement and a mastery of spin. Rathour preached a similar mantra.
“If you are not a team that hits a lot of sixes, you can still find plenty of fours by utilising the whole ground,” he said. “Most of them sweep well, reverse sweep and use their feet. That is encouraging. If you don’t have the brute power, you can make up for it by using angles and scoring square of the wicket.
“These wickets perhaps suit that style more. They are not the easiest surfaces to hit sixes, and I’m okay with that. If they can use their feet and the angles well, that is as good.”
Rex Clementine
at Pallekele
Business
Unlocking Sri Lanka’s dairy potential
Sri Lanka’s dairy and livestock sector is central to food security, rural livelihoods, and national nutrition, yet continues to face challenges related to productivity, climate vulnerability, market access, and financing.
In this context, Connect to Care and DevPro have entered into a formal partnership through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to support Sri Lanka’s journey towards dairy self-sufficiency.
A core objective of DevPro is to strengthen inclusive and resilient dairy value chains by empowering smallholder farmers through technical assistance, capacity building, climate-resilient practices, and market-oriented approaches, building on its extensive field presence across Sri Lanka.
A core objective of Connect to Care is to support the achievement of dairy self-sufficiency by 2033, as outlined in the national development manifesto, with an interim target of 75% self-sufficiency by 2029.
By strengthening local dairy production and value chains, this effort will also help reduce Sri Lanka’s dependence on imported dairy products, while improving farmer incomes and domestic supply resilience.
The partnership will focus on climate-smart dairy development, multi-stakeholder coordination, and exploring blended finance and PPP models—providing a structured platform for development partners and the private sector to engage in scalable action.
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