Business
Revenue decline puts pressure on govt’s fiscal management
Moves underway to strengthen gross official reserves
Seeking support from IMF ruled out
by Sanath Nanayakkare
As government revenues have fallen below expected levels, fiscal management of the government is under pressure, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, State Minister of Finance, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms said in Colombo yesterday.
He made this remark while speaking at a media briefing held at the Ministry of Finance.
“Although a sovereign bond of USD one billion needs to be settled this month, the actual outflow would be USD 700 million as Sri Lankan citizens own a share of USD 300 million of it. The current reserves are at USD 4 billion. After making this payment, the reserves will technically remain at USD 3 billion. Agreements have been arrived at with People’s Bank of China for a SWAP loan of USD 1.5 billion. In addition, the foreign exchange reserves will have contributions from Bangladesh Bank (SWAP) – USD 200 million, Reserve Bank of India (SWAP) USD 400 million. IMF (SDR allocation) USD 780 million and China Development Bank (Balance Loan) USD 200 million,” he said.
“In the next six months, the Central Bank will purchase USD 500 million from the forex market to consolidate the gross official reserves,” he said.
Further, a number of bilateral discussions are underway including for a USD 500 million syndicated loan while the Central Bank Governor has forecast a decline of imports by USD 700 million. he said.
The state minister said that the government has been able to collect only 34% of the government revenue in the first six months while 48% of the allocated recurrent expenditure has been spent during the period and 30% of the capital expenditure has already been invested in projects.
“Although the exchange rate is Rs. 200 to a USD, further depreciation is possible. The reasons for this are; reluctance of the exporters to convert their forex earnings and importers acting swiftly to import goods to top up their stocks for a longer time than it is necessary,” he said.
Further speaking he said,” The economy weakened from 2015 to 2019. Growth rate declined to 2.3% from 6.8%. Per capita income reported only a slight increase of USD 33 from USD 3,819 to USD 3,852. Gross Domestic Product was up by only USD 4 billion from USD 80 billion to USD 84 billion. Debt to GDP ratio increased to 87% from 72%. The debt stock increased to Rs.13 trillion from Rs. 7.5 trillion. The government’s interest expenditure in proportion to GDP increased to 6% from 4.2%. Due to rupee depreciation during the period, the debt stock rose by Rs. 1772 billion. Sovereign bond interest rate increased to 7.8% from 5.8%. Exports remained at an average of USD 11.1 billion while the trade deficit increased to USD 9.3 billion from USD 7.6 billion. Although sovereign bonds to the tune of USD 12 billion had been issued during the five years, foreign exchange reserved declined to USD 7.6 billion from USD 8.2 billion. The budget deficit increased to 9.6% from from 5.7%. Employed persons reduced to 8.2 million from 8.4 million. Central Bank’s treasury bill holdings shot up to Rs. 75 billion from zero. Rupee to USD exchange rate depreciated by 39% from Rs. 131 to Rs. 182. USD 3,089 million worth of Central Bank reserves were sold to maintain the value of the rupee. If this had not been done, foreign exchange reserves would have remained at USD 10.7 billion. The country’s credit rating downgraded to B (Negative) from BB- (Stable) – four notches during the period. Foreign debt versus domestic debt shifted to 48:52 from 42:58. From 2015 to 2019, government revenue was up by 65%, but as interest rates were high amid low growth, that advantage slipped through.”
“When Covid-19 hit Sri Lanka in 2020, in spite of the resilience some sectors of the economy had shown, the overall economy further weakened. As the economy had been completely shut for 66 days, it led to a negative growth of 3.6% while per capita income declined to USD 3,682 with the lowering of GDP to USD 81 billion. Debt to GDP increased to 101% from 87% while the debt stock increased to Rs.15.1 trillion from Rs. 13 trillion, therefore, interest expenditure was up by 6.5% to GDP in spite of low interest rate.”
Due to rupee depreciation, the debt stock increased by Rs. 356 billion. The repayment of USD 1 billion sovereign bond, the loss of income from Tourism around USD 3.5 billion, foreign exchange reserves fell to USD 5.7 billion from USD 7.6 billion. The impact of Covid-19 saw a spike in expenditure by about Rs. 100 billion while the government revenue declined, hence the budget deficit increased to 11.1%. The rupee depreciated 2.6% versus the USD to Rs. 187. However, the Central Bank bought USD 283 million from the forex market, and in 2021, the Bank has bought USD 130 million up to now. While the credit rating was downgraded to CCC(Stable) foreign debt to local debt ratio turned favourable by becoming 40:60 from 48:52. Low interest rate in 2020 brought some relief to the overall economy while the government also gained from it. Although exports were down to USD 10 billion, thanks to import controls, the trade balance was reduced to USD 6 billion.”
The state minister said that although there is a challenge to managing the economy, the government would not run away from its responsibility and would restore it a point where there is space for Sri Lanka to make a favourable turnaround with expected non-debt creating inflows to the Port City, Hambantota Industrial Zone, Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Zone, and last but not least with Sri Lanka Tourism reopening its boarders for the lucrative industry as the vaccine rollout is progressing well.
He empasised the fact that the government would not look to the IMF to get any help from it as those who recommend it want the government to get into difficulty as we would have to fall in line with IMF’s stringent economic recipe and conditions which come in hand in hand with their support.
Business
eChannelling introduces ‘eHomecare’ as SL’s first doctor-led elderly care service
Supporting families with medically supervised care for elderly individuals in the comfort of their own homes, SLT-MOBITEL and eChannelling PLC, in partnership with medical experts from Golden Years Care, have introduced eHomecare’, Sri Lanka’s first doctor‑led elderly‑care service.
The pioneering initiative is designed to address a growing societal need. The service launched by eChannelling, Sri Lanka’s leading digital healthcare solutions provider, brings together the technological capabilities of SLT-MOBITEL with eChannelling’s healthcare expertise and Golden Years Care’s extensive experience in compassionate home-based support, ensuring quality standards throughout the program.
With increasing migration, many adult children are now living or working abroad, leaving their elderly parents alone in Sri Lanka. For many seniors, mobility challenges make it difficult to access hospitals for routine checkups, medication, or urgent medical attention. eHomecare seeks to fill this critical gap, offering a structured, reliable, and compassionate solution for families navigating these challenges.
The purpose of eHomecare is to support families in assuring their elderly loved ones receive the medical care they need, even when children are living overseas or occupied with demanding careers, guaranteeing elderly individuals are supported with dignity.
eHomecare provides families with a safe and trustworthy platform to arrange professional doctor‑led home visits, benefit from real‑time assessments and guidance from qualified healthcare professionals and ensure the elderly are supported with holistic care.
More than a convenience, eHomecare is a vital solution to a pressing social concern, offering peace of mind to families and guaranteeing seniors receive the respect, and medical attention they deserve.
Key features of the service include doctor-led home visits providing personalized care tailored to individual health needs, continuous assessment and recommendations for ongoing care for optimal health management, prompt medical attention during emergencies, with qualified healthcare professionals available when needed and a comprehensive, professional, and trustworthy approach to elderly care that prioritizes dignity and wellbeing.
Through eHomecare, families gain access to a reliable network of medical professionals who understand the unique needs of elderly individuals. The service bridges the distance between overseas children and their aging parents, with medical support, and emotional reassurance that loved ones are being cared for with compassion and expertise.
Business
NDB shows strong growth, rising investment potential
In a striking testament to both corporate resilience and a recovering macroeconomic environment, the National Development Bank (NDB) has delivered a set of third-quarter results for 2025 that far exceed market expectations. The figures, detailed in a recent analysis by First Capital Research (FCR), paint a picture of a financial institution leveraging favourable conditions to accelerate growth, justify upward revisions in valuation, and present a compelling case to investors for long-term value creation.
The headline figure is arresting: a 145.6% year-on-year surge in earnings for 3Q2025. This explosive growth was primarily engineered by a dual engine of stronger net interest income, which grew 13.8% YoY to LKR 9.1 billion, and a significant 24.3% rise in net fee and commission income. The former benefits directly from the prevailing low-interest-rate environment, which has helped margins and stimulated borrowing, while the latter points to broad-based business momentum across the bank’s operations, from trade finance to its digital platforms. A remarkable leap in other income – to LKR 1.04 billion from a mere LKR 27.7 million a year earlier – further bolstered the bottom line.
Perhaps as encouraging as the income growth is the notable improvement in credit quality. Impairment charges declined by a substantial 46.9% year-on-year, a clear signal of improving macroeconomic conditions and a healthier loan book. This trend underscores a banking sector that is emerging from the shadows of past economic stress with greater stability.
Buoyed by this outperformance, FCR has significantly revised its earnings forecasts upward. Their 2025 estimate has been lifted by 33.5% to LKR 11.6 billion, and the 2026 forecast by 26.1% to LKR 13.2 billion. This positive reassessment flows directly into the bank’s perceived fair value. FCR now assigns a fair value of LKR 180.0 per share for 2025, implying a 27% potential upside, and LKR 200.0 for 2026, suggesting a 42% increase from current levels. When expected dividend per share (DPS) returns are included, the total return projections become even more attractive, estimated at 33% for 2025 and 48% for 2026.
First Capital maintains a “BUY” recommendation on NDB, citing a constructive outlook founded on a favourable macro backdrop and stable interest-rate trends. These factors are expected to continue fuelling loan book expansion. Furthermore, growth in trade finance and an accelerating adoption of digital banking services are anticipated to provide sustained momentum to fee-based earnings, diversifying the bank’s revenue streams.
However, the report does not ignore the clouds on the horizon. It highlights near-term risks to asset quality, particularly stemming from recent adverse weather events. Given NDB’s sizable exposure to the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector, which is often vulnerable to such disruptions, the analysis expects a possible uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the coming quarters. This is a prudent note of caution for investors, emphasizing that the recovery path may not be entirely smooth.
Nevertheless, the overarching narrative from these results is one of a bank positioned at the confluence of economic recovery and strategic execution. NDB appears to be translating improved national economic indicators into robust financial performance. Its “resilient base,” demonstrated by strengthening fundamentals and declining impairments, provides the foundation for “rising potential,” captured in the revised earnings and fair value estimates.
For the investing public, the message from this analysis is clear: NDB is presented as a institution harnessing the winds of economic change to propel itself forward. While mindful of sector-specific risks, the data suggests a strong trajectory for growth and value appreciation, making it a standout candidate for potential investors.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Sri Lankan tea sees a week of robust activity
The Colombo tea auctions witnessed a week of robust activity and generally firm prices, as total offerings rose significantly to 6.0 million kilograms, according to the latest market commentary from leading brokers Forbes & Walker. This marks a notable increase from the 5.2 million kilograms on offer the previous week.
The market was characterized by good general demand, with an encouraging overall price structure attributed to seasonal interest. The report indicates a nuanced picture across different elevations and tea types.
Offerings from Ex-Estate gardens increased marginally to 0.79 M/Kgs. The sector saw good demand, with prices maintaining a firm to marginally dearer trend. However, within the Western High-Grown region, teas in the Best category were marginally weaker, while improved and brighter sorts in the Below Best category appreciated. The Nuwara Eliya region remained sluggish, while the Uva/Uda Pussellawa regions sold at levels consistent with the previous week.
The High and Medium Grown CTC market saw firm conditions for PF1 grades, which gained by Rs. 20 per kg or more. In contrast, the corresponding Low Grown PF1 varieties weakened by a similar margin. BP1 grades were scarcely available.
The Low Grown segment, comprising approximately 2.4 M/Kgs, met with fair to good demand. The Premium category, in particular, witnessed good interest.
BOP1 grades were fully firm. OP1 varieties saw Best and Below Best types appreciate, while high-priced OPs were easier. OPAs saw high-priced teas become dearer.
FBOPs were generally firm, and Select Best FF1s were firm to selectively dearer.
Very Tippy teas met with good, firm demand, with Best and Below Best varieties appreciating.
The broker report noted that shippers to traditional markets like the United Kingdom, the European continent, and South Africa continued to be selective in their purchases. Meanwhile, there was fair activity from buyers representing China, Japan, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Middle East.
Forbes & Walker concluded that the overall price picture is encouraging, driven by a combination of selective international demand and seasonal factors. The firm to dearer trend at the lower end of the market and for specific grades indicates a solid underlying demand, despite some regional and qualitative weaknesses. The trade will be watching closely to see if this firm trend holds as new seasonal crops come to market.
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