Features
REMEMBERING GEORGE TURNOUR SCHOLAR/ADMINISTRATOR EXTRAORDINAIRE
by HUGH KARUNANAYAKE
Thirty seven years ago, on 13 April 1985, the British Prime Minister of the day Mrs Margaret Thatcher during her visit to Sri Lanka to open the Victoria Dam, said in an address to the Parliament of Sri Lanka ” The remains of an ancient civilization are visible in many parts of your island. Two thousand years ago, your irrigation system far exceeded in scale and sophistication anything existing in Europe. That great chronicle the Mahavamsa, has passed down to us the story of your island’s development.”
The Mahavansa and the history it contained would probably have been lost in the mists of antiquity if not for the indefatigable efforts of a Civil Servant by the name George Turnour
GEORGE TURNOUR
George Turnour was born in Ceylon in 1799. His father (the fourth son of the Earl of Winterton) also with the same name George Turnour, came over to Ceylon in 1789 with the 73rd Regiment, and was appointed Fort Adjutant in Jaffna in 1795, after the capture of Jaffna from the Dutch. He died on April 10, 1813 aged 45 and was buried in the Dutch Church of Jaffna.(since destroyed during the civil war). The headstone to the grave of his infant daughter would have suffered the same fate. However we are indebted to Leopold Ludovici who preserved for posterity images of some of the tablets and headstones in the country, in his magnificent work Lapidarium Zeylanicum 1877.
His son George Turnour, born in Ceylon in 1799, was sent to England for his education, and on his return as an 18 year old was appointed to the Ceylon Civil Service. When he was appointed as Government Agent at Ratnapura, he made the acquaintance of the High Priest of Sabaragamuwa through whom he obtained a transcript of the commentary to the Mahawansa, written in Pali and preserved at the Mulkirigala Vihare. Since there were no Pali dictionaries available then, Turnour studied the Pali language, and together with some Buddhists priests translated the text, and after many years of labour, produced the first thirty eight Chapters of the Mahawamsa into English.
This was an epoch making event. The Mahavamsa” or “The Great Chronicle” is the documented history of the great dynasty of Sri Lanka kings in general and Sinhalese Buddhism in particular. This important work is believed to have been written by Bhikku Mahanama in Pali language and describes the life and times of the people who forged the Sri Lankan nation, from the coming of Vijaya in 543 BCE to the reign of King Mahasena (334 – 361) (6th Century BC to 4th Century AD).
ENTRANCE TO MULKIRIGALA TEMPLE
Historiographical sources were rare in much of South Asia before the publication of the Mahavamsa. As a result of its publication, more became known about the history of the island of Ceylon and neighbouring regions, more than that of most of the subcontinent. Its contents have aided in the identification and corroboration of archaeological sites and inscriptions associated with early Buddhism, the empire of Asoka, and also the Tamil kingdoms of southern India.
The publication of the first 38 chapters of the Mahavamsa in 1837 by Turnour served as a trail blazer for ethnographic studies in South India and Ceylon. Major Jonathan Forbes of the 78th Highlanders who served in Ceylon for over a decade published his two volume memoir Eleven Years in Ceylon in 1840. In it he stated ” I have the opportunity of stating my admiration of the judgment and accuracy with which Mr Turnour has arranged and abridged the Cingalese history”.Much of the ancient history of both India and Sri Lanka would not have been available were it not for the Mahavamsa.
Turnour however fell ill before he completed his task and retired from service. He left Ceylon in 1842 and died in Naples at the age of 44 on April 10, 1843. He was buried in the old Protestant Church in Naples. When the news of Turnour’s death reached Ceylon there was widespread grief in the island among colonial officialdom and local elites. It was decided to establish a suitable memorial to Turnour and subscriptions were collected for the purpose. The subscription list was headed by the Chief Justice, Sir Anthony Oliphant with a donation of £2-2sh. This was matched by similar donations from the following:
Mr Justice Stark, Donald Davidson Capt Kelson, Dr Cameron, Joseph Read , Lt Col Fletcher, J Jumeaux, JG Firth, CR Buller, Francis Hudson, Lt Hawkins, Capt Lillee, William Morris, F de Livera , TC Power , FB Norris, JH Rabinel, R Jefferson, H De Alwis, David de Silva, Mudyr, C Webster, S Northway, Don Hendrick, Mudyr.
Since Kandy was going to be the epicentre of the emerging plantation economy, it was decided by the organisers of the Turnour Memorial Fund to make a substantial donation towards the construction at a cost of pounds sterling 2,371 of St Paul’s Church, for which a plan was already in place. A memorial to George Turnour was to occupy a prominent place in the church. The Church was opened in August 1846, four years after the death of Turnour
An impressive large marble tablet was installed to the memory of George Turnour as the focal point of the Church. (Please see accompanying photo)The marble tablet is the oldest in the church. The writer acknowleges with grateful thanks the assistance provided by Mr Nihal Seneviratne of Colombo in procuring the images of the Turnour tablets from St Paul’s Church, Kandy)
“Sacred to the memory of GEORGE TURNOUR Esq, the eldest son of the Hon”ble George Turnour and Emelie his wife. born March 11th AD 1799 and died at Naples April 10th AD 1843, aged 43 years. Appointed to the Ceylon Civil Service in 1817 he served under govrnment with distinguished ability for a period of 24 long years and was enabled by his researches in Oriental literature and profound acquaintance with ancient history and chronology of this island, the scene of his literary and valuable public services.
In erecting this tablet to the memory of one who united in himself the accomplishments of a gentleman, the erudition of a scholar and the piety of a Christian, his family are anxious to record in an especial manner the deep constant and mutual affection which in no ordinary degree subsisted between him and younger sister Jane, wife of Capt H.A.Atchinson, Ceylon Rifle Regiment, who died the year before her brother at Plymouth, April 20th, 1842 in the 36 th year of her age leaving behind her a bright example in which were blended the inestimable qualities of a devout Christian, an affectionate wife, a devited mother, and a faithful friend.”
THE TURNOUR PRIZE AT ROYAL COLLEGE
The organizers of the testimonial to the memory of George Turnour presumably in their belief that Turnour’s gift to global scholarship should also be perpetuated by a live, ongoing memorial to the scholar, could not have selected a better institution to serve their objective. Today’s Royal College was in 1846 known as the Colombo Academy, and was barely 11 years in existence when the organizers decided to donate the balance funds from the donors to create an annual endowment to the most distinguished student of the Colombo Academy.
The first winners of the Turnour Prize were George F Nell and Charles Ambrose Lorenz. The Turnour Prize now in its 175th year is the oldest continuing Prize in the history of Sri Lanka. It is in fact older than most of the other prominent schools of today like S. Thomas’, Trinity, St Joseph’s and is now a revered institution by itself. It has inspired scholarship of the highest order in the most prominent school in the country, and its pioneering nature has served as a shining example to other educational institutions in no small manner.
Throughout its 175 year existence the Turnour Scholarship has identified, nurtured, and held aloft some of the best scholars, administrators and national leaders that have influenced the development of Sri Lanka. A list of some of the names of celebrities who kick started their journey into life via the Turnour Prizr reads like a roll call of the nation’s revered leadership. Names like. C. A. Lorenz, that foremost Burgher of all time, Sir James Peiris, Sir Muttu Coomaraswamy, Christopher Britto, Francis Beven, Sir Ponnmbalam Arunachalam, Sir Thomas de Sampayo, Sir Marcus Fernando, his brother C.M. Fernando, Dr C.A. Hewavitarne, HV Perera, QC, VM Fernando, AE Keuneman, AE Christoffelz, BW Bawa, EW Jayewardene, and more recently of Gamini Iriyagolle, KS Gangadharan, and several others too many to mention, reflect the very high standard of scholarship inspired by the prize.
Special mention must be made of one family whose members were Turnour scholars for four successive generations. Starting with Sir Ponnambalam Arunachalam followed by his son Sir Arunachalam Mahadeva, then by the latter’s son Balakumaran (Baku) Mahadeva, and then by his son Kumar Mahadeva. While Sir Ponnambalam Arunachalam’s uncle Sir Muttu Coomaraswamy the first barrister ever from Asia (father of Ananda Coomaraswamy, the savant) was an early Turnour Scholar, the equally brilliant brother of Arunachalam, Sir Ponnambalam Ramanathan one of the founders of modern Ceylon, could not make it to the Turnour Prize despite being a brilliant student of Royal College. Overall however, the family’s contribution to scholarship and national leadership remains unsurpassed.
Mention must also be made of MJR Paul later known as P.M. Jeyarajan who together with AH Macan Markar were the joint winners of the Turnour Prize in 1928. PM Jeyarajan, later a member of the Indian Civil Service, was for many years the Honorary Director of the Royal College Orchestra, underscoring a line from the school song “they have repaid the debt they owed; they kept thy fame inviolate.” All the winners of the Turnour Prize have their names inscribed on a panel displayed in the College Hall.
Over 150 Turnour Scholars have left their alma mater Royal College, to carve out a career in the big wide world before them. Not only have their achievements done George Turnour proud, but are remembered through posterity for their association with that great scholar whose contribution to history is indelibly inscribed into the nation’s psyche.
Features
Why agriculture insurance is key to avoiding food shortages
Securing Sri Lanka’s farming future:
By. Lalin I De Silva
Indra Rupasingha, a senior value chain consultant at Vivonta Green Tech, has collaborated with the World Bank on intercropping spice crops, coffee, and tea. His expertise, enriched by Scandinavian and European agricultural systems, includes environment-controlled agriculture, organic production, and animal husbandry. His extensive experience is further demonstrated by his roles as Director at Sri Lanka State Plantations Corporation, General Manager at John Keels Plantations/Elkaduwa Plantations, and Managing Director at Lipakelle Plantation.
Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector, the backbone of the nation’s economy and food supply, faces unprecedented risks due to climate change and unpredictable policy shifts, such as the abrupt push for organic agriculture, which led to a national crisis. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, it’s imperative that candidates prioritise the creation of a robust, transparent, and effective agricultural insurance system, learning from successful models like those in Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and France. These nations have demonstrated how a well-implemented insurance system can not only protect farmers but also secure the country’s food security. Sri Lanka must follow suit to shield its farmers from disaster and encourage them to continue cultivating for profit.
Sri Lanka’s Agricultural Insurance: A Critical Need for Food Security
In recent years, Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector has suffered heavily from natural disasters and ill-advised policy changes. The overnight shift to organic farming, which lacked proper planning and execution, left farmers in disarray and the nation teetering on the edge of a food shortage. While Sri Lanka has the National Insurance Regulation Authority, it has yet to truly serve the needs of farmers, burdening them with convoluted insurance agreements and inadequate protection. With 29 insurance companies operating in Sri Lanka, only one openly shares its Net Promoter Score (NPS), leaving the rest to operate under a shroud of secrecy. This lack of transparency has eroded trust and failed to provide the safety net that farmers desperately need.
But what if Sri Lanka could learn from other nations that have successfully mitigated agricultural risks? Countries like Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and France have all developed effective agricultural insurance programmes that offer timely payouts, use advanced technology, and provide farmers with peace of mind. Implementing such a system in Sri Lanka could help the nation avoid food shortages and promote continuous, profitable cultivation.
Learning from Canada, New Zealand, the US, and France
In Canada, the AgriInsurance system is a federal-provincial partnership that leverages satellite imagery, AI-based risk assessments, and real-time data monitoring to ensure fast and accurate crop loss evaluations. Farmers in Canada are particularly satisfied with the programme because it is transparent, affordable, and provides swift compensation, allowing them to recover quickly from natural disasters and resume cultivation.
Similarly, New Zealand’s FMG Rural Insurance focuses on customer-centric services, allowing farmers to use mobile apps to report losses and track claims. This ensures minimal delays in payments and fosters trust between insurers and farmers. In the United States, the USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) works with private insurance companies under federal oversight, providing quick and standardized claim processes. Their use of satellite technology and cloud-based systems ensures accurate monitoring and dispute resolution.
In France, Groupama Agricultural Insurance integrates digital platforms that allow farmers to monitor real-time weather data and crop growth. With highly automated claim processes, French farmers enjoy efficient compensation, minimal delays, and high satisfaction.
Justifying the Need for Agricultural Insurance in Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector is critical to the country’s food supply and economic stability. However, the risks associated with climate change, fluctuating market prices, and ad-hoc policy changes threaten to destabilise this vital industry. Crop insurance can provide a safety net, allowing farmers to continue cultivation despite the odds.
One of the key barriers to implementing an effective insurance system in Sri Lanka is the bureaucratic red tape, leading to delayed claims and confusion over policy conditions. Farmers are left feeling unsupported, often burdened with agreements they cannot understand without legal assistance. A simplified, transparent, and technology-driven insurance model—like those seen in developed countries—could remove these barriers, instill confidence in farmers, and promote sustained agricultural output.
In addition to protecting farmers from natural disasters, agricultural insurance can also provide a buffer against policy-related risks. As seen during Sri Lanka’s overnight shift to organic agriculture, farmers were unprepared and left vulnerable to losses. A well-drafted insurance scheme would ensure that, even in times of policy shifts, farmers can rely on compensation and return to farming.
Five key Recommendations to Make Agriculture Insurance Popular and Effective in Sri Lanka
Introduce a Farmer-Friendly Insurance Policy: Develop a simplified insurance agreement that is easy to understand, without the need for legal expertise. Make the terms and conditions clear, concise, and accessible in local languages to encourage widespread adoption.
Leverage Advanced Technology for Crop Monitoring and Claim Processing:Adopt satellite imagery, AI tools, and mobile apps to monitor crop health and assess losses. These technologies will provide real-time data, ensure accurate assessments, and expedite claim settlements, creating a transparent system.
Implement Government-Backed Reinsurance to Guarantee Payouts: Ensure that the government partners with private insurance companies to back up the claims process. This would help maintain timely payouts, build trust among farmers, and reduce the risk of disputes.
Tailor Insurance Solutions to Local Agricultural Needs: Offer insurance policies that cater to Sri Lanka’s diverse crops and regional differences. Whether it’s paddy fields or tea plantations, the insurance system should be flexible enough to cover various risks specific to each agricultural zone.
Government Subsidies to Make Premiums Affordable:Provide government-subsidised premiums to make agricultural insurance affordable for smallholder farmers, who form the majority of Sri Lanka’s agricultural workforce. This would ensure that all farmers, regardless of size or income, can access insurance coverage.
Conclusion
As the 2024 presidential election draws near, Sri Lanka’s leaders must recognize the importance of agricultural insurance in safeguarding the nation’s food security. By learning from global examples like Canada, New Zealand, the US, and France, Sri Lanka can create an effective, transparent, and technology-driven system that protects farmers and encourages them to continue cultivation in the face of adversity. Implementing these reforms will not only benefit farmers but also ensure the long-term sustainability of the country’s agricultural sector – an outcome vital to Sri Lankas future.
Lalin I De Silva, former Senior Planter, Agricultural Advisor / Consultant, Secretary General of the Ceylon planters Society, Editor of the Ceylon Planters Society Bulletin and freelance journalist.
Features
Charting a brighter future: Sri Lanka’s path to prosperity
By Dr Matara Gunapala
During the reign of King Parakramabahu (1153-1186), Sri Lanka earned the distinguished title of the ‘granary of the Orient,’ reflecting its unparalleled agricultural abundance. The island’s breathtaking landscapes, fertile soil, and bountiful resources—including precious stones, renowned tea, rubber, and coconut—alongside its strategic deep harbours, made it a crucial hub in maritime trade. These resources drew foreign powers’ attention, and Sri Lanka experienced successive periods of colonial dominance under the Portuguese, Dutch, and eventually the British from 1815 to 1948.
British rule shifted Sri Lanka’s focus to export-oriented plantations and infrastructure primarily to benefit colonial interests. By independence in 1948, the Sri Lankan rupee was valued at approximately Rs 3.33 to the US dollar. However, economic mismanagement in the 75 years, following independence, has led to unprecedented economic crises and currency depreciation. As of February 2024, the rupee has plummeted to around Rs 310 against the US dollar, with only a slight improvement to Rs 300 by August 2024, plunging Sri Lanka into the ranks of the world’s 22 most heavily indebted nations.
Since Sri Lanka adopted an executive presidency, a cascade of constitutional amendments has fostered an environment where corruption and misconduct flourish, compromising democratic governance, destabilising the economy, and undermining the rule of law. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. Politicians wielding excessive power have exploited their positions, undermining institutions like the Central Bank and judiciary, eroding accountability, and distorting justice, leading to degraded public services and denying equitable access to opportunities, a distant dream for ordinary citizens.
While those in power and their associates revel in luxury and foreign travel, many Sri Lankans grapple with soaring prices and shortages of basic necessities. Therefore, Sri Lanka must embark on a transformative journey without delay to restore its economic health and political integrity, paving the way for a prosperous future.
Constitutional Reform
The Constitution is the bedrock of a nation’s governance, shaping the balance of power and safeguarding citizens’ rights. In Sri Lanka, however, the Constitution has been amended over 20 times, often in ways that have concentrated power in the hands of politicians, eroded judicial independence, and compromised economic stability and public service effectiveness. These changes have frequently undermined ethno-religious unity and hindered equal opportunities for all citizens. Recent attempts to further amend it to delay presidential elections have only deepened concerns about the current Constitution and the need for its drastic reform.
A few have advocated for significant changes for constitutional reform. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, presidential candidate Nagahananda Kodituwakku, and the Collective for Democracy and Rule of Law (CDRL)—a coalition of senior academics, professionals, and activists—have proposed new constitutional reform. The National Peoples Power (NPP) party has highlighted the urgent need for constitutional reform in its policy statements.
For Sri Lanka to embark on a path to prosperity, a transformative new Constitution must: a) discard the presidential system of governance and curtail politicians’ ability to influence the public sector, limiting their responsibility for policymaking; b) strengthen checks and balances to combat mismanagement and enhance transparency, ensuring accountability with strict penalties for misleading the public or making false promises, c) strengthen judicial independence to uphold justice, d) fair representation to ensure equal opportunity of all ethnic groups in governance, promote unity, and give every citizen an equitable voice, e) ensure Parliament is not a burden to the country. An excessive number of parliamentarians (225 members and the President) has long been a focal point of criticism. Their extensive powers and privileges have frequently burdened the nation. The proliferation of politicians—alongside over 455 provincial councillors and nine governors—has led to inefficiencies and corruption, with many exploiting their ability to misuse administrative and financial powers for personal gain. Therefore, a new Constitution should:
Prevent malpractices by implementing stringent measures to curb corruption and misuse of power, ensuring that public officials are held accountable for every action and expenditure.
Reducing inefficiencies by streamlining the parliamentary system by reducing the number of representatives and establishing an independent body of experts to oversee political conduct, aligning governance with democratic principles and national interests.
Introduction of merit-based appointments
The current economic crisis and rampant corruption are symptoms of a deeper problem: many politicians lack the commitment and capability to serve the nation effectively. The mismanagement of nationalised enterprises has resulted in significant economic losses and weakened public services. For effective governance, members of Parliament and public officials must be selected, based on merit—education, capability, experience, and integrity—rather than nepotism or sectarian interests. Parliamentary members should possess qualifications comparable to a recognised university degree and demonstrate essential leadership skills, including collaboration, critical thinking, and effective communication.
Moreover, political parties must prioritise national unity and development, preventing sectarian policies and political dynasties. Leadership should be determined by merit, honesty, and education rather than family ties, race, or other divisive factors. Embracing principles of meritocracy, pragmatism, and integrity—mirroring the values that contributed to Singapore’s success—can help restore Sri Lanka’s status as the “Pearl of the Indian Ocean” and set it on a path to renewed prosperity.
Strengthening Judiciary
A strong and independent judiciary is essential for upholding social justice and ensuring fair governance, especially in a nation battling widespread corruption, mismanagement, crime, and racial divide. Recently, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court has highlighted numerous individuals, including influential politicians and their associates, as key players in the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Yet, the judiciary has struggled to enforce the law effectively, allowing wrongdoers to evade accountability and enjoy government-funded luxuries. Consequently, Sri Lanka urgently needs a judicial overhaul to have an independent judiciary that will create an environment where justice prevails, public confidence in the legal system is restored, and governance is transparent and accountable, reinforcing the rule of law.
Education and Skill Development
Education is the cornerstone of a nation’s success, fostering strategic thinking, innovation, and entrepreneurship that drives prosperity and navigates the global landscape. A robust education system equips individuals with the knowledge and skills needed for personal and professional growth and promotes social cohesion. By ensuring that all ethnic and religious groups are represented in every educational institution, education can bridge divides and reduce communal tensions, creating a more unified society.
Moreover, providing opportunities for those who leave school early through technical and vocational training is crucial. These programmes enhance employability and contribute significantly to national development by preparing individuals for the workforce and addressing skill shortages.
Investment in higher education and research institutions is equally vital. Nations experiencing rapid development—such as the United States, China, South Korea, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, and various European Union countries—are notable for their substantial research and higher education funding. This investment drives innovation, economic growth, and global competitiveness.
Additionally, independent media is crucial in educating the public and informing citizens about significant issues. In Sri Lanka, information suppression has enabled corruption and misuse of power to flourish. An independent media sector encourages critical thinking and impartial analysis, helping to curb government inefficiencies and promote transparency. Independent media, in turn, supports socio-economic development and fosters a more informed and engaged citizenry.
Building a Disciplined Nation
A nation’s prosperity hinges on effective government institutions. Honesty, integrity, capability, and effective communication are essential for creating a thriving society. Despite having limited natural resources, countries like Japan and Singapore have achieved remarkable success primarily due to their strong sense of national discipline and robust legal systems.
In contrast, Sri Lanka has faced numerous challenges rooted in a lack of discipline across various sectors—from the streets to workplaces and even Parliament. This systemic issue has significantly contributed to the country’s struggles since independence. Building a disciplined nation requires a concerted effort to instil and uphold high standards of conduct at all levels of society. By fostering a culture of accountability and ethical behaviour, Sri Lanka can pave the way for sustainable growth and renewed prosperity.
Conclusion
Sri Lanka’s post-independence journey has been marred by corruption, mismanagement, and self-serving politics, culminating in a severe economic crisis. It has squandered countless opportunities for prosperity. Through comprehensive constitutional reform, Sri Lanka must curb politicians’ undue influence over the judiciary and public sector to reverse this decline. Establishing an independent judiciary and promoting disciplined behaviour across all levels of government and society enables racial unity and enhances good governance.
Investing in education, research, skill development, and entrepreneurship will unlock new opportunities and drive national prosperity. Additionally, safeguarding the environment and conserving natural resources are vital for developing Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and enhancing overall quality of life. Without transformative leaders like Mandela or Angela Merkel, it falls to the people to hold politicians accountable, driving them to embrace critical changes. Only then can Sri Lanka harness its true potential, restore integrity to its institutions, and forge a brighter, more equitable future for all its citizens.
Features
Countdown Week in Sri Lanka and Debate Week in the US
by Rajan Philips
As Sri Lanka starts the countdown week before its September 21 presidential vote, the US finished the debate week that is expected to set the campaign tones for the remaining eight weeks before its presidential election on November 5. In a riveting performance last Tuesday, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris exceeded all expectations and with consummate lawyerly skill laid bare the utter limitations and disqualifications of Donald Trump to be America’s president a second time.
The incoherent and blustering Trump undoubtedly made Harris’s debate tasks a whole lot easier, but the pre-debate onus was on her to show that she could perform in an unscripted engagement just as well as she is showing herself to be in organized rallies and in delivering tele-prompted speeches. And she did that superbly.
As debate politics goes, the big US and little Sri Lanka are at extreme ends. Sri Lankan presidential candidates have studiously avoided the ordeal of a face to face debate in a structured forum and the challenge of responding to independently prepared questions. Instead, they are firing questions and making accusations about one another but only from the security of their own platforms and in front of their own cheerers and hangers on. President Ranil Wickremesinghe would seem to have taken this old approach to a new level in what is fast becoming his last hurrah.
A Lopsided US Method
In the US, on the other hand, self-serving media hype has turned presidential debates into the single most pivotal moment to establish the eligibility of one candidate over the other. The irony of it is that a single debate between two American candidates gets all the hype and attention in what is globally the most consequential political election. Even so, while doing well in the debate was hugely necessary for Kamala Harris to validate her credentials, it is not at all sufficient to ensure her victory in November.
Like her Democratic predecessors, Al Gore, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Harris is certain to win the popular vote; that is the majority of the total votes in the election. But that will not be enough unless she also gets the majority 270 of the 538 Electoral College (EC) votes in the undemocratically calibrated US presidential election system.
Al Gore polled more than George Bush nationally in the 2000 millennial election, but lost the EC vote and the election to Bush, because of his narrow loss in a single state, Florida and its 30 EC votes. Hillary Clinton similarly won the national vote but lost to Donald Trump in 2016 because of her loss in three Midwestern states – Michigan (15 EC votes), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (19), all of which had been won by Obama in the two previous elections. Biden turned the tables on Trump in 2020 and won all three states and took two more (Arizona and Georgia) from Trump.
Kamala Harris is running strong but tight with Trump in all the above five states that Biden won, and has brought two more into play – North Carolina and Nevada that Trump won in 2020. She has tremendously improved the chances of a Democratic victory since taking over from Biden, but nothing is certain until the votes in the now seven swing states are cast and counted.
The rest of the fifty states are divided between the two parties with baked in support no matter who the candidates are. Identification with and loyalty to either of the two parties is well entrenched in American politics. Democrats are dominant in 18 states, the so called blue states that are more urban, populous and diverse, and account for 225 EC votes. Republicans hold sway in the 25 red states that are relatively less populous, more rural and more white, and carry 219 EC votes.
The challenge for Harris is to win enough of the seven states to get 45 more (270-225) EC votes and prevent Trump from getting the 51(270-219) EC votes he needs from any number of the seven states. The margins of victory in any and all of these states could be a few thousand votes. And those voters will determine who America’s president and the world’s superpower leader will be for the next four years. A rather lopsided method for choosing the world’s most consequential political individual. All the more so, when it could lead to the second election of someone like Donald Trump, whom Kamala Harris clinically dismissed as a national disgrace and a global joke.
The Sri Lankan Variant
The Sri Lankan voters do not have the weight of the world on their hands, but they carry the fate of the country’s economy and its politics at least for the next five years. While Sri Lanka does not have an electoral college screening system as in the US, it has its own undemocratic aspect by virtue of the ranked method to determine the winner if no candidate passes the 50% muster on the first count. As everyone is predicting, the winner next week is likely to be determined after counting the second and the third preferential votes for the first two candidates marked on the ballots of all the other candidates.
The two front runners are widely expected to be Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa, with Ranil Wickremesinghe running third – but how close or far behind is still anyone’s guess. While neither of the two front runners is expected to get more than 50% of the vote, it is also likely that whoever comes first will end up the winner even after counting the preferential votes.
The chances are that the ultimate winner may not even exceed 40% of the vote. He could even win with only a third of the vote and would immediately be stigmatized as the executive president with one-third mandate. In a polity that swears by the two-thirds majority. No matter, the country will have a new president. Unless Ranil Wickremesinghe magically manages in one week to bewitch an electorate that has grown tired of him over several decades. Yet it would have been more democratic, but expensive, to have a second runoff election between the two front runners to elect a president with a clear majority.
There is a second point of difference between the US and Sri Lankan presidential elections. In the US, the president, the whole House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are all elected on the same day. The new administration and the legislature start their new tenure after the inauguration in January following the November election. The Sri Lankan presidential election next week will complete only half the job. The new president will assume office almost immediately after the election, but will be stuck with the old parliament that is crying to be put out of its misery. Again, there are unprecedented possibilities.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declared that if elected he would immediately dissolve parliament and call for a general election. There will be a caretaker government until a new parliament is elected. That is a clean as a whistle approach that is consistent with AKD’s promise to start a new chapter for the country. But it is not without perils and pitfalls. The size of his vote will determine the leeway he has in implementing a caretaker government. And the performance of the caretaker government with AKD as president will hugely determine the NPP’s fortunes at the parliamentary election.
The challenges are huge given the NPP’s inexperience in government. Innocence in government ceases to be a virtue once you start making choices and decisions that impact people. There may not be much time for expatriate experts to arrive and take care of a caretaker government before the parliamentary election. Unless there is already a plan in AKD’s back pocket.
Sajith Premadasa, unless I have missed it, has not taken a clear position like AKD on what he will do with the current parliament if he (SP) were elected as president. Unlike AKD, SP has enough numbers in parliament to form an interim cabinet and keep going for a while before calling a general election. He will have the opposite problem to that of AKD. While AKD will have to bring in people whom nobody knows, Sajith Premadasa will have a time excluding people whom everyone hates. It is difficult to see what Ranil Wickremesinghe will do differently if he were to beat all odds and be elected as president. He could certainly savour his lifetime achievement but that will be of no service to the country.
Both Dissanayake and Premadasa will have to figure out a way to implement their promise to eliminate the elected-executive presidential system. The easiest and the surest way would be to start the process immediately and tag a referendum question on the presidency to the general election ballot. That would call for a decision on their own status as president – if they are ready to do the opposite of, and reverse, what JRJ did in 1977/78. Anything less will show their lack of seriousness. There is no point in calling it a betrayal after all the broken promises since 1994.
Traditionally, Sri Lankan voters have been motivated by multiple factors: the ethnic identity, class politics, party loyalty, caste prejudice, candidates’ likeability etc. But these factors have always been woven into an overriding wave of judgment on the performance of the government in power. Until 1977, voters generally and cyclically voted governments out of power and the opposition into power. The cycle has been wrenched up after 1977 in more ways than one.
The upcoming election next week is unique in that there is no one to be judged and thrown out of power. Aragalaya has already done that, and the Rajapaksas are now out of even contention. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s candidacy is also unique in that he doesn’t think that he should be judged for anything, but rewarded for saving the country from the Rajapaksa mess. The problem with that premise is that while he may have cleaned up the economic mess of the Rajapaksas, he has perpetuated their political mess.
For the first time, and uniquely as well, Anura Kumara Dissanayake is presenting himself as the spearhead of a new political force without past political baggage, and is appealing to the expectations of people to have an honest and efficient government. He has won over many people to his promises about the future, but what is not known is how many people are taking him at his word that his organization no longer has any of its old baggage.
There is not much that is unique about Sajith Premadasa, but he has emerged as a fortuitous beneficiary of the disintegration of the country’s traditional political organizations. Dissanayake and Premadasa are the acknowledged frontrunners, but they have distances to go to prove their political mettle both before and more so after the election.
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Anura criticises Ranil’s erratic behaviour
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Features2 days ago
Countdown Week in Sri Lanka and Debate Week in the US
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Editorial6 days ago
‘Poster boys’ and monsters
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News4 days ago
ITAK reaffirms support for Sajith Premadasa
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Features2 days ago
Ranil talks to the Sunday papers, fields wide-ranging questions
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News3 days ago
Immigration and Emigration Chief ordered to appear before SC for failing to comply with order