Repercussions on prices to be felt by next March or April

Recent heavy rains have completely destroyed approximately 80,000 hectares of paddy, and the government must not only compensate affected farmers but also encourage them to return to farming, according to Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe from the Department of Crop Science, University of Peradeniya.

Prof. Marambe, during a recent televised interview, highlighted the grave implications for Sri Lanka’s rice supply if immediate action is not taken.

“We estimate an average yield of 4.5 metric tonnes per hectare. With 80,000 hectares of paddy destroyed, this equates to a loss of around 360,000 metric tonnes of paddy. Such a loss could severely impact rice prices by March or April 2025. It is vital to resume farming in these areas as much as possible, in addition to providing compensation to the farmers,” he said.

Prof. Marambe pointed out that one of the key challenges in restarting farming is the shortage of seed paddy. “The private sector does not have sufficient seed paddy, and the government’s stock is limited. However, the Ministry of Agriculture is making efforts to collect seed paddy from farmers who have surplus and redistribute it to those who have lost their fields,” he said.

Sri Lanka consumes approximately 112.3 kilogrammes of rice annually, translating to about 200,000 metric tonnes per month or 2.4 million metric tonnes per year, he explained. Additionally, around 350,000 metric tonnes of paddy is used annually as animal feed, with a further 50,000 metric tonnes allocated for beer production.

“Poultry farmers prefer corn for feed as it enhances the yellow colour of egg yolks. However, Sri Lanka’s corn harvest has also suffered a significant blow, with a 50 percent drop due to fertiliser shortages, though it is slowly recovering,” Prof. Marambe said.

Discussing rice production, Prof. Marambe revealed discrepancies in conversion rates from paddy to rice. “According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 100 kilogrammes of paddy yields 68 kilogrammes of rice, a 68 percent conversion rate. The National Institute of Post-Harvest Management reports a conversion rate of 62 to 65 kilogrammes. Large-scale millers claim a rate of around 62.5 percent, while small and medium-scale millers estimate between 52 and 62 percent,” he said.

Sri Lankan farmers produce approximately 4.6 million metric tonnes of paddy annually, which, based on a 68 percent conversion rate, would result in about 3 million metric tonnes of rice.

“This should mean we have a surplus. However, if we use the lower conversion rate of 52 percent reported by small-scale millers, it suggests we may not produce enough rice for domestic consumption. This discrepancy raises serious concerns, and I understand the Ministry of Agriculture is working to address the issue,” Prof. Marambe said. (RK)