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Priorities in Focus: Will Budget 2025 address Sri Lanka’s agricultural challenges?

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Manoj Thibbotuwawa is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) with 

research interests in agriculture, agribusiness value chains, food security, climate change and environmental and natural resource economics. He has more than 19 years of research experience at IPS. . Dr Thibbotuwawa holds a BSc (Agriculture) with Honours from the University of Peradeniya, an MSc (Agricultural Economics) from the Post-Graduate Institute of Agriculture at the University of Peradeniya, and a PhD from the University of Western Australia. He has also obtained a Post-Graduate Diploma in Modelling and Accounting for Sustainable Development from the International Institute of Social Studies (ISS) in The Hague. Dr Thibbotuwawa is a recipient of the prestigious Nuffic Fellowship from the Government of the Netherlands and the Endeavour Award from the Government of Australia.

Lakmini Fernando is a Research Fellow at IPS with primary research interest in Development Economics, Public Finance and Climate Change. She has expertise in econometric data analysis, research design and causal methodologies. Dr Fernando holds a BSc in Agriculture from the University of Peradeniya, a Master of Development Economics (Advanced) from the University of Queensland, Australia and a PhD in Economics from the University of Adelaide, Australia. She was awarded the Dean’s Honour Roll from the University of Queensland for Outstanding Academic Excellence in 2015 and the Dean’s Commendation for Doctoral Thesis Excellence from the University of Adelaide in 2021.

By Dr Manoj Thibbotuwawa and Dr Lakmini Fernando

Public expenditure on agriculture as a share of total government spending has decreased from 6.4% to 2% between 2014 and 2023.

The irrigation subsector receives most of the agricultural spending (41%), with subsidies accounting for a high 26%.

Change to funding priorities necessary to address critical concerns.

The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka has long been a pillar of the nation’s economy, yet its decline reflects a complex interplay of economic shifts, policy decisions, and underutilised potential. Agriculture’s contribution to the overall economy in Sri Lanka has gradually diminished over time, while the agricultural labour force has shrunk at a slower rate. This disparity between a declining sector and a stagnant workforce, coupled with the failure to address structural changes by improving land and labour productivity, has led to poor sector performance, particularly in terms of food security and farm income.

Additionally, unproductive public spending in the form of inefficient allocation, short-term concentration, and neglect of crucial areas is an important contributory factor. In this context, it is crucial to assess whether public expenditure allocation in Sri Lanka has undergone significant shifts aimed at unlocking the agriculture sector’s potential while advancing food security and fostering rural development.

Tracking the Shift: Trends in Public Spending on Agriculture

Over the last decade, Sri Lanka has struggled to spend adequately on agriculture due to competing fiscal concerns. Before COVID-19, total agricultural investment was around LKR 112 billion in real terms between 2014 and 2020. However, due to the impact of COVID-19, it sharply declined to LKR 88 billion in 2021. Since then, agricultural investment has slightly increased, averaging LKR 97 billion in the past two years (2022-2023). Despite an increase in absolute public expenditure on agriculture (PEA), both the GDP share and the percentage of the total budget allocated to agriculture have been declining.

PEA as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 1.1% in 2014 to 0.8% by 2023. Similarly, PEA as a percentage of total government spending has decreased from 6.4% to 2% throughout the same period. Notably, the balance between capital and recurring expenditures has shifted dramatically in favour of more recurrent expenditures during institutional structure changes linked to changes of government, as shown in 2015, 2019, and 2020.

Guiding the Budget: Who Shapes Agricultural Investments?

The agriculture sector in Sri Lanka is primarily managed by the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), the Ministry of Plantation Industries (MOP) and the Ministry of Fisheries (MOF), as outlined in the Public Investment Programme (PIP). While the land and irrigation sectors are closely linked to agriculture, they fall under the jurisdiction of separate ministries: the Ministry of Lands (MOL) and the Ministry of Irrigation (MOI), respectively. In terms of budgetary allocations, MOA historically receives the largest share, accounting for 51% of agriculture-related expenditures.

This is followed by the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment (MOE) with 23%, and MOI with 13%. MOF and MOP receive smaller allocations, at 3% and 4% respectively. While the nominal PEA has been on the rise, real-term PEA has either declined or remained largely unchanged across all ministries.. However, this does not necessarily indicate whether agricultural expenditures are aligned with sectoral policies, making it challenging to evaluate the effectiveness of spending in addressing critical concerns within the sector.



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Sampath Bank’s strong results boost investor confidence

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The latest earnings report for Sampath Bank PLC (SAMP), analysed by First Capital Research (FCR), firmly supports a positive outlook among investors. The research firm has stuck with its “MAINTAIN BUY” recommendation , setting optimistic targets: a Fair Value of LKR 165.00 for 2025 and LKR 175.00 for 2026. This signals strong belief that the bank is managing the economy’s recovery successfully.

The key reason for this optimism is the bank’s shift towards aggressive, yet smart, growth. Even as interest rates dropped across the market, which usually makes loan income (Net Interest Income) harder to earn, Sampath Bank saw its total loans jump by a huge 30.2% compared to last year. This means the bank lent out a lot more money, increasing its loan book to LKR 1.1 Trillion. This strong lending, which covers trade finance, leasing, and regular term loans, shows the bank is actively helping businesses and people spend and invest as the economy recovers.

In addition to loans, the bank has found a major new source of income from fees and commissions, which surged by 42.6% year-over-year. This money comes from services like card usage, trade activities, and digital banking transactions. This shift makes the bank less reliant on just interest rates, giving it a more stable and higher-profit way to earn money.

Importantly, this growth hasn’t weakened the bank’s foundations. Sampath Bank is managing its funding costs better, partly by improving its low-cost current and savings account (CASA) ratio to 34.5%. Moreover, the quality of its loans is getting better, with bad loans (Stage 3) dropping to 3.77% and the money set aside to cover potential losses rising to a careful 60.25%.

Even with the new, higher capital requirements for systemically important banks, the bank remains very strong, keeping its capital and cash buffers robust and well above the minimum standards.

In short, while the estimated profit for 2025 was adjusted slightly, the bank’s excellent performance and strong strategy overshadow this minor change. Sampath Bank is viewed as a sound stock with high growth potential , offering investors attractive total returns over the next two years.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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ADB approves $200 million to improve water and food security in North Central Sri Lanka

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ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Takafumi Kadono

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $200 million loan to support the ongoing Mahaweli Development Program, Sri Lanka’s largest multiuse water resources development initiative.

The program aims to transfer excess water from the Mahaweli River to the drier northern and northwestern parts of Sri Lanka. The Mahaweli Water Security Investment Program Stage 2 Project will directly benefit more than 35,600 farming households in the North Central Province by strengthening agriculture sector resilience and enhancing food security.

ADB leads the joint cofinancing effort for the project, which is expected to mobilize $60 million from the OPEC Fund for International Development and $42 million from the International Fund for Agricultural Development, in addition to the ADB financing.

“While Sri Lanka has reduced food insecurity, it remains a development challenge for the country,” said ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Takafumi Kadono. “Higher agricultural productivity and crop diversification are necessary to achieve food security, and adequate water resources and disaster-resilient irrigation systems are key.”

The project will complete the government’s North Central Province Canal (NCPC) irrigation infrastructure, which is expected to irrigate about 14,912 hectares (ha) of paddy fields and provide reliable irrigated water for commercial agriculture development (CAD). It will help complete the construction of tunnels and open and covered canals. The project will also establish a supervisory control and data acquisition system to improve NCPC operations. Once completed, the NCPC will connect the Moragahakanda Reservoir to the reservoirs of Huruluwewa, Manankattiya, Eruwewa, and Mahakanadarawa.

Sri Lanka was hit by Cyclone Ditwah in late November, resulting in the country’s worst flood in two decades and the deadliest natural hazard since the 2004 tsunami. The disaster damaged over 160,000 ha of paddy fields along with nearly 96,000 ha of other crops and 13,500 ha of vegetables.

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ComBank to further empower women-led enterprises with NCGIL

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Mithila Shyamini, Assistant General Manager – Personal Banking at Commercial Bank and Jude Fernando, Chief Executive Officer of the National Credit Guarantee Institution exchange the agreement in the presence of representatives of the two organisations

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has reaffirmed its long-standing commitment to advancing women’s empowerment and financial inclusion, by partnering with the National Credit Guarantee Institution Limited (NCGIL) as a Participating Shareholder Institution (PSI) in the newly introduced ‘Liya Shakthi’ credit guarantee scheme, designed to support women-led enterprises across Sri Lanka.

The operational launch of the scheme was marked by the handover of the first loan registration at Commercial Bank’s Head Office recently, symbolising a key step in broadening access to finance for women entrepreneurs.

Representing Commercial Bank at the event were Mithila Shyamini, Assistant General Manager – Personal Banking, Malika De Silva, Senior Manager – Development Credit Department, and Chathura Dilshan, Executive Officer of the Department. The National Credit Guarantee Institution was represented by Jude Fernando, Chief Executive Officer, and Eranjana Chandradasa, Manager-Guarantee Administration.

‘Liya Shakthi’ is a credit guarantee product introduced by the NCGIL to facilitate greater access to financing for women-led Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that possess viable business models and sound repayment capacity but lack adequate collateral to secure traditional bank loans.

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