Connect with us

Business

Panic, speculation and the mystery behind Sri Lankan rupee’s sudden rebound

Published

on

The sudden fall and equally rapid recovery of the Sri Lankan rupee within a matter of days has left many Sri Lankans confused about what truly happened inside the country’s foreign exchange market.

Within a short span, the rupee weakened sharply from around Rs. 324-325 against the US dollar to Rs. 354 in parts of the commercial market, before unexpectedly stabilising again close to previous levels. The speed of both the depreciation and the recovery triggered widespread speculation among businesses, importers and the public.

Responding to questions from the media regarding the abrupt divergence between official exchange rates and commercial bank quotations, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe recently explained that the volatility had emerged mainly outside the formal interbank foreign exchange market.

According to the Governor, Sri Lanka operates through two connected foreign exchange markets. One is the interbank market, where commercial banks exchange dollar liquidity among themselves. The other is the retail market between banks and customers, including importers, exporters and individual foreign exchange buyers.

Under normal conditions, customer buying and selling rates fluctuate within a narrow margin around the interbank market rate. However, during the week leading up to Friday, May 22, an unusual surge in dollar demand disrupted this balance.

The Governor said excessive speculation and panic-driven import demand created abnormal pressure on the market, pushing some customer transactions far above prevailing interbank rates.

“We observed that because of speculation and panic related to imports, there was excessive demand for US dollars,” he explained. “Transactions between banks and customers began taking place well above interbank market rates, which created a distortion.”

While the interbank rate remained around Rs. 320 to the dollar, certain customer transactions were reportedly taking place between Rs. 346 and Rs. 354.

The Central Bank viewed this widening gap as a breakdown in normal market transmission rather than a reflection of underlying fundamentals.

To restore order, the Central Bank held discussions with treasury officials of commercial banks on the evening of May 21 and introduced measures aimed at improving liquidity flows and reactivating smoother interbank trading.

According to the Governor, these measures helped reconnect the interbank market with commercial bank customer pricing, allowing exchange rates to realign rapidly.

“Liquidity returned to the market and buying and selling rates became fully aligned again,” he said. “The market has now normalised.”

The Governor emphasised that the Central Bank’s intervention was limited and intended only to smooth excessive volatility rather than artificially defend a specific exchange rate.

He noted that the authorities intervened only to a certain extent during the sharp depreciation phase and later carried out small operations to reduce market instability while allowing normal demand and supply conditions to function.

The episode has nevertheless raised broader questions about how fragile confidence remains in Sri Lanka’s post-crisis economy despite improving macroeconomic indicators.

Although foreign reserves and external sector conditions have improved significantly since the height of the economic crisis in 2022, the foreign exchange market remains highly sensitive to expectations, rumours and sudden shifts in import demand.

Many ordinary Sri Lankans believe the panic may have been triggered by a surge in Letters of Credit (LCs) opened for vehicle imports amid speculation over increased import activity and future dollar demand.

Meanwhile, Professor Wasantha Athukorale at the University of Peradeniya said remarks made by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake regarding rising US dollar outflows for fuel shipments may also have heightened importers’ anxiety over possible currency instability.

Economists say the episode demonstrates how market psychology can sometimes move exchange rates faster than economic fundamentals, particularly in relatively thin and fragile foreign exchange markets like Sri Lanka’s.

The speed of the rupee’s rebound suggests that the turbulence was driven more by speculative demand, temporary liquidity distortions and market sentiment than by a structural foreign exchange crisis.

Still, for a population that continues to carry memories of shortages, inflation and currency collapse, the brief rupee shock served as another reminder that confidence in Sri Lanka’s economic stabilisation remains delicate.

By Sanath Nanayakkare ✍️



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

‘First major legal reset on environmental protection in 38 years’

Published

on

Prof. Tilak Hewawsam: ‘Milestone reached.’

Parliament yesterday took up for debate and vote a sweeping overhaul of Sri Lanka’s main environmental law, in what the Central Environmental Authority (CEA) hopes will become the country’s first major legal reset on environmental protection in 38 years.

The National Environmental (Amendment) Bill, taken up for its final reading in the House, is being seen by environmental officials as a critical attempt to modernise an outdated legal framework that has struggled to keep pace with mounting pollution, hazardous waste, ecological degradation and the environmental fallout of unplanned development.

In a sign of the importance attached to the Bill, senior CEA officials remained in parliament throughout the day as the debate unfolded, amid growing expectations within the environmental sector that the revised law would strengthen the Authority’s hand in regulation, enforcement and environmental planning.

CEA chairman Prof. Tilak Hewawasam described yesterday as a “very special day” for the Authority and said the proposed amendments were long overdue.

“Yesterday was a very special day for the Central Environmental Authority. The Bill to amend the National Environmental Act was read in parliament for the final time, debated and voted on. This was the third revision of the Act and came 26 years after the previous amendment. While the 2000 revision was only a minor one, the 1988 amendment was a comprehensive reform that provided the legal framework and tools such as the EPL and EIA for environmental protection and environmental management in Sri Lanka. After 38 years, another comprehensive revision has now been proposed to Parliament, Hewawasam told The Island Finacial Review.

He said the CEA leadership and senior staff had closely followed the proceedings, hopeful that parliament would clear the Bill and pave the way for a stronger legal framework for sustainable development.

“We were very eager to see this revised Act passed and enacted by parliament, as it will provide the legal framework needed to drive and accelerate the country’s sustainable development, he said.

The push for reform comes at a time when the country’s environmental governance framework is under increasing strain from industrial pollution, mounting solid waste, chemical hazards, encroachment into environmentally sensitive zones and the widening conflict between economic activity and ecological safeguards.

Environmental officials say the revised law is intended to close long-standing legal and institutional gaps that have weakened environmental enforcement and slowed regulatory action.

Among the major changes proposed are provisions to legally recognise Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA), strengthen the CEA’s authority to issue binding orders instead of merely recommendations, tighten controls on hazardous waste and chemicals, expand producer responsibility in waste management, and empower authorities to act more decisively against unauthorised constructions and environmentally harmful activities in protected and ecologically sensitive areas.

By Ifham Nizam

Continue Reading

Business

La Serena marks Vesak with evening of Bhakthi Gee and reflection

Published

on

Residents of La Serena recently came together in a spirit of quiet reflection and shared devotion for a Vesak Bhakthi Gee recital, transforming the serene beachfront setting into an evening of song, mindfulness and gentle celebration.

The programme, organised for residents and invited guests, featured a collection of Buddhist devotional songs that captured the essence of Vesak, fostering a sense of inner peace and spiritual fulfilment. Voices joined in harmony, creating a deeply moving atmosphere rich in meaning and memory.

With around 60 per cent of La Serena residents being expatriate Sri Lankans, the event was particularly evocative. One resident observed that having lived overseas for many years, they had missed Sri Lankan cultural and religious celebrations, making the celebration especially meaningful.

Beyond the music, the gathering strengthened the bonds of community that define life at La Serena, encouraging connection, conversation and companionship among residents. Rooted in Sri Lankan cultural and religious tradition, the event reflected the resort’s commitment to enriching emotional and spiritual well-being through thoughtfully curated experiences.

La Serena is a purpose-built beachfront retirement resort in Uswetakeiyawa, offering a secure and dignified environment for assisted living. Combining the privacy of independent living with access to personalised care and shared amenities, it fosters a vibrant, connected lifestyle where residents can enjoy comfort, companionship and peace of mind.

Continue Reading

Business

Sarvodaya Development Finance records strong FY2025/26 performance, reinforcing growth

Published

on

Sarvodaya Development Finance PLC (SDF) delivered a strong financial performance for the year ended 31 March 2026, recording significant growth in income, profitability, portfolio expansion, and asset quality while continuing its commitment to responsible and inclusive finance.

For the financial year under review, SDF reported total income of LKR 6.42 billion, a year-on year increase of 46.8%. Interest income rose by 43.8% to LKR 5.85 billion, driven by business expansion and growth in earning assets. Net Interest Income increased by 35.4% to LKR 3.58 billion, while Total Operating Income grew by 40.8% to LKR 4.15 billion, reflecting the Company’s ability to generate strong and sustainable earnings.

Profitability improved substantially during the year. Operating Profit before Tax on Financial Services increased by 59.9% to LKR 1.82 billion, while Profit Before Tax rose by 63.8% to LKR 1.36 billion. Profit for the Year increased by 73.1% to LKR 820.1 million compared with LKR 473.8 million in the previous year. Earnings per share improved to LKR 5.48, demonstrating enhanced value creation for shareholders.

The Company’s balance sheet expanded significantly, with total assets increasing by 65.8% to LKR 37.37 billion as at 31 March 2026. Financial assets at amortized cost, including loans and receivables, grew by 67.2% to LKR 20.60 billion, while lease rental receivables increased by 34.0% to LKR 9.19 billion. SDF also strengthened its funding profile through debt securities, including Sustainable Bonds, amounting to LKR 2.09 billion.

Commenting on the performance, Chief Executive Officer, Nilantha Jayanetti stated, “The results achieved during FY2025/26 reflect the strength of our business model, disciplined growth strategy, and commitment to delivering responsible financial solutions. We remain focused on creating sustainable value while supporting communities and enterprises across Sri Lanka.”

SDF maintained a strong capital position, with a Tier 1 Capital Adequacy Ratio of 15.48% and a Total Capital Adequacy Ratio of 22.13%, both comfortably above regulatory requirements. Asset quality also improved, with the Gross Stage 3 Loans Ratio declining to 4.93% from 7.88% and the Net Stage 3 Loans Ratio improving to 2.94% from 5.70%. The Stage 3 Impairment Coverage Ratio strengthened to 42.60%.

Operational efficiency improved as the Cost-to-Income Ratio reduced to 42.99%, while Return on Equity increased to 19.60%. Reflecting its stronger financial position, SDF’s external credit rating was upgraded to Lanka Ratings (SL) BBB- Stable.

With a network of 56 branches, SDF remains committed to advancing financial inclusion, supporting sustainable enterprise growth, and contributing to Sri Lanka’s long-term socio-economic development.

Continue Reading

Trending