News
Moody’s downgrade ‘unwarranted, erroneous suggesting reckless reaction’
Government wades into battle with facts, figures and projections
In an extraordinary hard-hitting rejoinder to Moody’s downgrade of their Sri Lanka rating from B2 to Caa1 with a stable outlook, the Ministry of Finance, State Ministry of Money, Capital Markets and Public Enterprise Reforms (headed by former Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal) and the Central Bank accused the well-known rating agency of an “unwarranted and erroneous” finding that suggests a “reckless reaction.”
It said that “instead of understanding the economic turnaround as well as awaiting the Budget that is due in November, the downgrade of SL at the beginning of the Economic Revival is inexplicable.”
“This hasty rating action seems similar to the previous premature and reckless downgrades by rating agencies in the immediate aftermath of the ending of the internal conflict in 2009 and during the political impasse at the end of 2018. In both instances, the rating actions were proven to be hasty and erroneous, and those actions only resulted in several investors suffering unnecessary loses and missing out on emerging opportunities.”
“Moody’s rating downgrade fails to recognize and do justice to the ground reality of the ongoing rapid economic recovery backed by vastly improved business confidence arising from the return of political stability and policy stability after a lapse of five years,” the presentation said.
It went on to stress that Sri Lanka, like many of its peers in the emerging market group, experienced initial capital outflows, exchange rate depreciation, showdown in activity and pressure on government finances in response to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“But, the swiftness with which decisions were taken followed by the landslide victory of the government, enabled Sri Lanka to move along a recovery path towards growth and stability,” it said.
Since May, merchandise exports had bounced back, and by July, had returned to pre-Covid monthly averages of USD one billion, the presentation supported by graphs and charts said.
It argued that SL recognized the probable external sector pressure early, and decisively curtailed non-essential imports in order to prioritize external debt service obligations. The cumulative trade deficit by end December is expected to be around only USD 5.8 billion, significantly down from USD eight billion the previous year.
“The savings on the import bill due to the curtailment of non-essential imports as well as significant reductions in the fuel import bill is expected to be over USD 2.0 billion,” the presentation said.
Discussing the vital tourism sector, it said that although inbound tourist movements are yet not possible given the global pandemic situation, other service exports, including IT services and shipping remain robust. It added that workers’ remittances have recorded a sharp increase in spite of the initial expectations of a slowdown and at current trends, “the cumulative decline in workers remittances is likely to be marginal, compared to previous expectations of a decline of 15%.”
On foreign direct investment, it admitted that FDI inflows had slowed, but the investment pipeline is strengthening. While FDI slowed in the first half of this year (from a peak of USD 2,000 billion in 2018), looking ahead prospects were promising particularly with expected inflows into the Port City project and for new manufacturing projects.
“The expected finalization of new legislation for the Port City within a month will result in the realization of investment by those who have already completed due diligence on such investment,” the presentation said. “Other expected investments include import alternative industries as well as investments by international financial institutions.”
“FDI inflows during 2020 are expected to be over USD 750 million, which is only about USD 400 million less that in 2019. At the start of the pandemic, FDIs were expected to be only around USD 300 million for the year 2020.”
The presentation further said that stock market indices have improved dramatically to pre-Covid levels and are likely to gain further momentum. Also, foreign inflows to the government securities market have already showed signs of resumption and according to initial responses, are likely to increase in the coming months, particularly in the wake of the attractive SWAP arrangements offered by the SL authorities.
With increased emphasis on domestic agriculture, agro-based industries and resource-based industries, domestic economic activities have turned around remarkably and recorded V-shaped recoveries. A bumper Yala crop was expected to follow the bumper Maha. Industrial production has rebounded, electricity generation is normalizing with greater reliance on hydropower generation and the construction sector has gradually gathered pace.
The exchange rate had appreciated sharply since mid-April and remains stable at appreciated levels, allowing the Central Bank to accumulate reserves through market purchases of foreign exchange. Foreign inflows following the Moody’s downgrade enabled the Central Bank to purchase USD 30 million from the forex market on Sept. 29.
The presentation further said that the Debt to GDP ration which increased in recent years is expected to improve in the medium term; that envisaged financing inflows for 2020 favours domestic markets and strategic foreign financing; and that foreign Treasury bills and bonds holdings are likely to attract a substantial volume of investments in coming months.
Other positives outlined includes that official reserves of CBSL had increased to USD 7.4 bn. by end August 2020; a policy environment facilitating high economic growth beyond the recovery stage while preserving macro-economic stability and a “deep and unwavering commitment to our investors.”
News
New Chancellor appointed to General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has appointed Air Chief Marshal Kolitha A. Gunathilake (Retd.) as the new Chancellor of General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University.
The letter of appointment was presented to Air Chief Marshal Kolitha A. Gunathilake (Retd.) by Secretary to the President Dr Nandika Sanath Kumanayake at the Presidential Secretariat on Monday (05) afternoon.
Air Chief Marshal Kolitha A. Gunathilake(Retd.) has served as Commander of the Sri Lanka Air Force and as Chief of Defence Staff.
(PMD)
News
Govt. urged to halt ‘illegal’ presidential pardons
By Shamindra Ferdinando
The government is coming under pressure from civil society organisations to formulate a clear ‘mechanism’ to deal with requests for presidential pardons.
Representing civil society organisations, Gamini Viyangoda yesterday flayed the NPP government for the delay in taking action against Ven. Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara Thera, after the Supreme Court declared the 2019 presidential pardon granted to him by President Maithripala Sirisena null and void. He said successive Presidents had abused their executive power to release convicted persons from prison.
Purawesi Balaya activist Viyangoda pointed out that the Supreme Court ruled that President Sirisena had acted arbitrarily and failed to independently consider the relevant materials before exercising his executive power.
The Court of Appeal, in August 2018, sentenced Gnanasara Thera, General Secretary of the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS), to six years rigorous imprisonment for contempt of court over his conduct during proceedings concerning missing journalist Prageeth Ekneligoda. Viyangoda said that those who had been affected by the monk’s conduct have the right to know on what basis the President released him, in May 2019.
The Court of Appeal yesterday (05) ordered the relevant authorities to enforce the remaining period of imprisonment imposed on the Thera.
Gnanasara Thera, who had been subject to an open warrant for his arrest, was produced before the Court of Appeal, today, by prison officials.
Having considered the submissions made before it, the Court of Appeal directed the Commissioner General of Prisons to take the necessary steps to enforce the remaining period of the sentence imposed on Gnanasara Thera. Police on Saturday (03) apprehended the monk at a forest monastery in Kalutara. The Colombo Magistrate’s Court on Sunday (04) ordered the Thera to be remanded in custody till Monday.
Appearing for Gnanasara Thera, Attorney-at-Law Iresh Seneviratne, together with Attorney-at-Law Pasan Karunaratne, told the court yesterday that his client had been experiencing severe mental distress and had therefore gone to an ‘Aranya Senasanaya’, where he had been staying.
Viyangoda said that examination of presidential pardons, executed over the years, would reveal how successive leaders exploited the executive power to appease their own. Responding to The Island queries, Viyangoda said that Sirisena, in Sept. 2019, just two months before the presidential election, granted Jude Shramantha Jayamaha a Presidential pardon.
Jude Shramantha Jayamaha was sentenced to 12 years by the High Court, but the Court of Appeal revised that sentence to death, in July 2012, which the Supreme Court later upheld. Viyangoda said that though the Supreme Court, in June 2024, declared that the particular Presidential action was illegal and arbitrary, law enoforcement authorities were yet to take tangible measures to enforce the court directive.
Viyangoda stressed that no President should exercise the right to pardon a convicted on his or her own without following laid out procedures. According to him, Sirisena appeared to have simply ordered the monk, and the convicted murderer, released in response to appeals received by him. A comprehensive investigation could identify those who had been involved in these wrongdoings.
News
GL urges cautious handling of Saudi death row case, blasts govt. over BRICS affair
Convenor of Janathawadi Joint Opposition, Prof. G. L. Peiris, yesterday (05) emphasised the responsibility on the part of the government and others to act cautiously when making representations in respect of Sivarasa Anojan facing death sentence in Saudi Arabia over a controversial social media post.
Addressing the media at former President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s Flower Road Office, Prof. Peiris emphasised that whatever representations should be made through the Foreign Ministry.
The one-time External Affairs Minister warned of dire consequences of political party leaders, members of Parliament and civil society making direct representations and trying to get in touch with various Saudi authorities over the phone.
Prof. Peiris said that those who intervened on behalf of Anojan should keep in mind that Sri Lanka should be mindful of the Saudi way of governance and sensitivities.
The former Minister questioned the circumstances Sri Lanka was left out of the recent BRICS summit held in New Delhi. He recalled how former President Wickremesinghe discussed Sri Lanka’s entry into BRICS with Russian President Putin and received an invitation for the Summit there but as a result of the change of government, in Sept. 2024, Sri Lanka ignored that invitation.
That resulted in Sri Lanka being left out from the New Delhi summit, Prof. Peris said.
Prof. Peiris pointed out the absurdity in sending the Foreign Secretary to the BRICS Summit in Russia instead of the President, PM or the Foreign Minister to represent the country.
Referring to the forthcoming conclusion of the current IMF programme, initiated during Wickremesinghe’s time, Prof. Peiris said that Sri Lanka lost a great opportunity to benefit from BRICS by failing to represent the country at a higher level at the Russian summit.
The BRICS nations established the New Development Bank (NDB), originally called the BRICS Development Bank, Prof. Peiris said.
Dismissing NPP government’s explanation regarding Iranian ships awaiting necessary supplies but deprived by US imposed restrictions, the former Minister strongly criticised the administration’s response. According to him, this government responded in a similar manner when the US sank an unarmed Iranian frigate just outside Sri Lankan territorial waters in March this year.
Prof. Peiris declared that the government’s assertion that the US restrictions weren’t only directed at Sri Lanka but all Iranian vessels in other regions as well was not acceptable (SF)
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