Opinion
‘Lockdowns’ and us
We are experiencing another lockdown, this time for 10 days. The current death rate, due to COVID, is a reflection of what happened two weeks ago and hence the death rate is likely to rise even during this lockdown period, and the effects of the lockdown may not be apparent for another four weeks. It should be realised that the people are already paying a heavy price for the mistakes made, not just ours but governments in other countries. However, the important thing is to learn from the mistakes and improve as we go on to get rid of this deadly virus.
National ‘Lockdowns’ impose a change of behaviour needed to achieve an objective. In a war situation, military ‘lockdowns’ prevent the enemy engaging in activities that can damage the nation. This form includes roadblocks, curfews, surveillance, crowd control, arrests, lockups, punishments, etc. We have seen this during the war and also now during the pandemic. The objective of a ‘lockdown’, in this pandemic, is to minimise the spread of the virus and implement a weaning strategy to avoid a return to the same ‘lockdown’ once again.
We are a small country, with 21M people. We can be united and the pandemic managed a lot easier when compared to other countries. The USA has 330M, India 1300M and China 1400M. Maintaining family links, to support each other, is essential in the form of ‘defined’ bubbles to maintain sanity in a civilised nation. Weddings and funerals are important events of our life and these have to be carried out and can be done within the rules of preventing the spread of the COVID virus. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson had his wedding and Prince Phillip Duke of Edinburgh had his funeral during the peak of the pandemic, with no spectators, and adhering to every rule that was in place. Why cannot we be more humane in Sri Lanka?
The COVID pandemic is a healthcare emergency. Many other countries implemented ‘lockdowns’ for control of the spread of the virus. None of the Governments got the strategy perfectly right but they learnt from the mistakes and increasingly adhered to scientific directions to prevent the spread of the disease and return back to normal life patterns, without disrupting the cultural needs of the population or subjecting them to undue distress. The expenses required were revolved around obtaining government loans. For people in countries, such as Brazil, the presidential stubbornness made them pay with the dear loss of life which has now turned to a massive anti-government campaign.
Science had to be at the forefront as none of the administrators, or politicians, had any previous experience of a pandemic. These are ‘civilian’ lockdowns. The purpose was mainly to prevent health facilities from becoming overwhelmed and to maintain the ‘status quo’ until herd immunity was developed, by infection or immunisation. For example, in the UK new hospital facilities were developed, with military assistance, to accommodate more cases, if the existing hospital system got overcrowded. Many hospitals stopped routine work, redeployed staff, and converted their operating theatres and recovery areas to ICUs.
Unfortunately, our leaders interpreted ‘lockdowns’ as a solution, not realising this was applied in the developed world not to close down activities but to prevent the healthcare system from getting overwhelmed by too many sick people. To bridge, working from home was promoted, but education and essential services continued. The aim was to maintain the status quo until herd immunity has developed by vaccination or infection.
Coming out of lockdown is the most difficult task. This is because it has to be linked to daily infection rates, death rates, immunisation rates, based on prediction models, to understand what may work best. With our falsified, or manipulated erroneous data, there was little hope in making any useful prediction. It was a garbage ‘in’ garbage ‘out’ scenario.
The UK government, for example, did all it can to maintain other activities, complying with the restrictions required to prevent the spread of the virus. As advised by the scientific group, the use of masks indoors, regular handwashing, minimal nose and mouth touching and 2M social distancing was implemented in all institutions. Schools were kept open for children of essential workers to attend with minimal staff whilst others engaged in development and execution of online education. Examination formats were changed to ensure that the country will be on track to maintain educational goals, such as university entry. All workers, too, had to work from home, where possible, and national transport facilities were available with socially distanced rules applied to minimise contact. In other words, some seats were blocked and hence public transport services carried a lesser number of passengers. Since the number of commuters reduced due to ‘working from home’ where possible, public transport could easily cope with the need. Mass gatherings were not allowed anywhere. Masks were not required outdoors as there was no evidence to support significant virus spread outdoors. The role of police was mostly advisory to maintain ‘social distancing’ rules. The number of people who could attend weddings, religious ceremonies and funerals were restricted to a few, but none were cancelled. The military was called to help civilian needs, such as development of new healthcare facilities and mass testing campaign.
Implementing a lockdown is simple but coming out of it, maintaining the original objective of ‘preventing spread of the virus’, is difficult. This is where there was a need for expert advice, not based on wishful thinking, but based on daily data and prediction models. In order for prediction models to be accurate, there was a need for accurate data, which is lacking. This is why Sri Lanka is facing great difficulty, economically, as ‘lockdowns’ reduced productivity, with no mechanism in place to keep it going. The UK never had curfews or stop work instructions given to anyone. Instead, how can we work from home, safely, was the motive?
It is not late for Sri Lanka to allow civilian expert leadership to takeover and let them redeploy healthcare staff as they always did for healthcare campaigns, assisted by the military, if necessary, to do specific jobs. Enhance mechanisms for accurate data collections, invite professionals to develop prediction models, based on crucial data that is helpful to predict the evolution of the pandemic. Military style lockdown will only exacerbate the economic shutdown, as they would not know how to manage weaning off from the lockdown, based on daily health data and measures of herd immunity.
Let us start by at least calculating the R factor (daily or weekly) for every region. R is the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average. R factor above 1.0 is not very good as one infectious individual is infecting more than one. If the R factor is less than 1.0 for a particular region, then relaxing prevention restrictions can be considered very carefully. R factor should be published weekly with a set of recommendations. This is important as this is also a public health education exercise. More and more people will start listening and abiding by COVID prevention rules with time. We together have to look after the nation and not punish them at this difficult time for all.
For this scientific strategy to work, there is a need to collect true data and publish it openly with a set of recommendations to the Government by the Director-General of Health Services. The government will then be able to make its own judgment, balancing other needs. A democratically elected government should also have democratic governance throughout its term of office and not just expect that to have been only operational at their own election.
Crowds are the main spreading events. Although the democratic right is existent for protests, even within the pandemic, such protest leaders should consider postponing such events until the infectious environment has subsided.
The COVID pandemic is a healthcare emergency and not a military emergency. Please hand over the leadership of handling this matter to the Director-General of Health Services (DHS) and his department who has engaged in preventive medicine practice for donkey’s years. Let the DHS invite relevant ‘brains’ and the ‘boots’ to carry out tasks, not by force, but by public education and understanding. Public engagement on preventive measures and developing herd immunity by immunisation are the only two hopeful tools that will let us come out of this dredging pandemic with minimal cost of life and economic damage.
Chula Goonasekera
Former Professor of Anaesthesiology, University of Peradeniya.
Opinion
The second term of Donald Trump: What could we expect? – Part II
by Tissa Jayatilaka
(This article is based on a talk given to the members of the Sri Lanka Foreign Service Association on the 10th of December, 2024. First part of it appeared in The Island of 01 Jan. 2025).
Karl Rove, a veteran conservative political operative, wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal as follows:
Rather than for any particular skill or competency, Mr. Gaetz was selected because he promised he would spite Mr. Trump’s enemies within the Justice Department and hound his opponents outside it. Senator Markwayne Mullin, the junior senator from Oklahoma, essentially said much the same when he said, “I think the President wants a hammer at the Department of Justice (DoJ), and he sees Matt Gaetz as a hammer”. When asked if she would vote for Gaetz, Senator Marsha Blackburn said that she and her fellow Republicans are ready to support “every single one of Trump’s nominees”. Trump’s replacement nominee for Attorney General Pam Bondi, the senior senator from Tennessee has vowed to pursue Trump’s retribution agenda.
The Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE was first announced by Donald Trump about a month or so ago. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, two billionaires and possibly the two highest financial contributors to Trump’s election campaign are to be in charge of the new department. Trump envisions that DOGE “will become, potentially, The Manhattan Project of our time”, the President-elect wrote on his social media platform referring to a top-secret World War 11 programme to develop nuclear weapons.
Though DOGE has Trump’s support and has the word ‘department’ in its name, it is not an official government department that has to be established through an Act of Congress. Instead DOGE, it is believed, will operate as an advisory body, run by two of Trump’s right-hand men with a direct line to the White House. In an article published in the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago, Musk and Ramaswamy said they would “serve as outside volunteers, not federal officials or employees”. Their task is to provide guidance to the White House on spending cuts and compile a list of regulations that they believe are outside the legal authority of certain agencies and ought to be revised or discarded.
Government reforms by way of major cuts appears to be the remit of DOGE. The federal bureaucracy “represents an existential threat to our Republic”, Musk and Ramaswamy have written in the Wall Street Journal. “Unlike government commissions or advisory committees, we won’t just write reports or cut ribbons. We will cut costs”. At what cost they will do so is anybody’s guess. And the pair of billionaires have threatened to slash federal regulations, oversee mass layoffs and totally shut down some agencies. We should bear in mind in this context that during his campaign to secure the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Ramaswamy vowed to do away with the Department of Education (DoE) – – something Trump repeated days after winning the election. He released a video announcing that the DoE’s days were numbered. “One other thing I’ll be doing in the administration is closing up the DoE in Washington D.C. and sending all education and education work and needs back in the States”). For his Education Secretary, Trump has picked Linda McMohan, the co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment, who served as head of the US Small Business Administration in Trump’s first term.
Speaking at a gala held at Mar – a -Lago in November, Ramaswamy thanked Trump “for making sure that Elon Musk and I are in a position to start mass deportations of millions of unelected federal bureaucrats out of the District of Columbia bureaucracy”.
Even before it has been officially established, DOGE has been set a deadline of 4 July, 2026, to finish its job. When announcing the new body Trump said:
A smaller government with more efficiency and less bureaucracy, will be the perfect gift to America on the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
These are large claims and threats indeed. Whether they could be actually implemented or not remains to be seen.
Let’s take a look at some others of Trump’s picks for top posts. They have dismayed policy circles in Washington – -including Republican lawmakers and former officials who served during his first presidency.
Trump’s proposed inner circle on the foreign-policy front, is made up of notable hawks including Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser. Rubio is an unbelievably steadfast supporter of Israel and advocates a hardline approach to China, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela; Waltz is a Green Beret veteran who has been one of Beijing’s fiercest critics. He has consistently supported a tough stance on China.
Fox News host Pete Hegseth, Trump’s initial pick for Secretary of Defence, raised howls of protests from even among Republicans. He is a decorated Army veteran but has little or no direct experience in the Pentagon or government. He has referred to Army generals who adhere to diversity, equity and inclusion efforts as “woke shit” and said that women should not serve in combat roles. Hegseth has been accused of alcohol abuse, financial mismanagement, and sexual misconduct. It looks almost as if sexual misconduct or allegations thereof is a pre-requisite for higher office in Trump’s second term! Happily, there are unconfirmed reports that indicate Trump now has second thoughts about Hegseth as a nominee for his Secretary of Defence. One of the names in circulation as a possible replacement for Hegseth is Florida Governor Ron de Santis.
Military veteran Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democractic Party in 2022 and became an independent, is Trump’s nominee to be the Director of National Intelligence, regardless of her lack of direct intelligence experience. John Bolton, one of Trump’s former National Security Advisers, described Gabbard’s nomination as “hilarious” in a post on X. Bolton is on record as saying that Trump cannot tell the difference between the national interest and his personal interest.
Rubio, Hegseth (in case he remains Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defence), Gabbard all require Senate confirmation before they can serve in their respective posts. According to information in the media Senate Republicans are unlikely to give Trump and his nominees a free pass.
Let me now take a close look at the likely main features, discernible at present, of Trump’s foreign policy during his second term. It is expected to be more of the same as during his first term; a trade war with China and hostility to multilateralism.
Steve Holgate, another of my former U.S. Foreign Service Officer-colleagues, is also an intimate friend. He has had experience working with the U.S. Congress and headed a committee staff in the senate of his home state of Oregon. Holgate, a perceptive observer of the passing political scene with whom I exchange views frequently, (which diverge at times) has pointed out, and I agree, that Trump clearly has an isolationist impulse. Trump’s vow to put “America First” and “Make America Great Again” taps into sentiments that date back to the beginnings of the American republic when George Washington and Thomas Jefferson talked of the uses of isolationism, though not as whimsically as Trump now does. What this will mean is hard to say, as he, unlike Washington and Jefferson, is totally mercurial. He has indicated that he would stop supporting Ukraine. Holgate thinks this would have catastrophic results, for not only would the United States be abandoning a troubled but functioning democracy but it, under Trump’s leadership, may also mean that the United States would be betraying and abandoning U.S. NATO allies, who have really stepped up. Not only will this be harmful in itself but it could, Holgate notes further, persuade China to conclude that the United States would do nothing if China invades Taiwan; and allow Kim (Jong Un) to recalculate the risks of invading the South. Xi has shown that he is more than willing to rattle sabres in order to distract the Chinese from their internal problems, especially on their economic front. Therefore, Xi may find it handy, Holgate opines, to strike Taiwan in order to create a spurious domestic unity. We both (i.e., Holgate and I) agree that Trump has always shown himself sympathetic to dictators and Trump would love to be one. His values are opposed to those that have held American democracy and its alliances together. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada could not only cause a trade war but would, in turn, weaken the economies of the world including that of the United States. As for Israel, Trump’s impulse is to give it unlimited unconditional support – – unless Netanyahu turns nettlesome and puts Trump off. We know that everything is personal and everything is transactional with Trump.
There are some commentators who feel that it is Hamas who set off the ongoing round of violence, and despite the justified criticism of the force of Israel’s retaliation and the accusations of genocide, the attack by Hamas was also an act of genocide. I have a different take. My sense is that such commentary is akin to a case of bending over backwards to soften the shockingly excessive and totally disproportionate response of Israel to the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023. Now it may be that the latter attack was designed to keep a pending anti-Iranian agreement creating a coalition of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States from going through and that is why Iran pushed both Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. But, most of us, including some Israeli citizens themselves and many other anti-Zionist (but not anti-Semitic) activists around the world are of the view that Israel is more to blame as the anti-Israel UN Resolutions (vetoed by the United States) and the findings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) illustrate. The ICJ found Israel responsible for racial segregation and apartheid against the Palestinians, and pointed to a long list of abuses and violations of international law by the Israeli authorities. And on 21 November, 2024, the UN-backed International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (together with a former Hamas commander) citing war crimes and crimes against humanity. The judges on the ICC said that there were reasonable grounds that the three men bore ‘criminal responsibility’ for the alleged war crimes committed ‘from at least 8 October, 2023 until at least 20 May, 2024’.
Bruce Lohof whom I have quoted with approval earlier is of the view that:
Trump will continue the reflexively Israel right-or- wrong addition that has driven US policy in West Asia since Harry Truman was in the White House. I am among those who’ve often thought that the US policy towards Israel surfaces slowly because it has to be translated from the Hebrew.
(To be concluded tomorrow)
Opinion
Wildlife conservation: Dogs to the fore
A passion for wildlife conservation and a love for dogs has led to the creation of a non-profit organisation that trains puppies to protect endangered species.
Dogs4Wildlife, based in Carmarthen, supports frontline conservation efforts across sub-Saharan Africa.
Founders Darren Priddle and Jacqui Law train and develop specialist conservation dogs to support anti-poaching rangers.
“There is no better feeling on this planet than to know that our dogs are saving lives,” said Jacqui.
Darren and Jacqui are professional dog trainers and have been developing operational working dogs for 15 years.
Darren said: “Our love for dogs and our commitment to developing them for specialist work helped us to decide ‘why not?’
“If we are able to train dogs to track people in this country, then why can we not train dogs to help protect our wildlife all across Africa and that’s where Dogs4Wildlife was born.”
The dogs are bred in-house and go through “extensive and advanced training” and a development programme that starts from as early as two days old.
“Relationship is key when deploying a dog to work with anti-poaching rangers,” Darren added.
“We do a lot of relationship building, a lot of conditioning in terms of the patterns of behaviour we want from the dog.
“Whether that be human scent tracking, specialist detection work or operating in a control base on a wildlife reserve.”
The team then “impart all of that knowledge and experience” to the rangers once the dogs have been deployed to a wildlife reserve.
The team has trained and deployed 15 operation dogs to five sub-Saharan African countries including Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Mozambique.
They also provide consultancy and specialist training to different organisations, including the Akashinga, an anti-poaching group in Zimbabwe.
In October, one of their dogs Shinga tracked a poacher 4.5 km (2.8 miles) straight to his front door after a warthog was killed in Zimbabwe.
The team’s work in Africa not only supports the anti-poaching rangers but also communities in the area.
The aim of the programme is to inspire the future generations “to love and support the natural world that surrounds them”, said Darren.
“Whether that be human scent tracking, specialist detection work or operating in a control base on a wildlife reserve.”
The team then “impart all of that knowledge and experience” to the rangers once the dogs have been deployed to a wildlife reserve.
Sunil Dharmabandhu
Carmarthenshire, Wales, UK
Opinion
TRC in a mess; public driven from pillar to post
In an era of rapid technological advancement, one would assume that losing a mobile phone could be addressed swiftly and efficiently. However, for a close friend of mine, Anura (not his real name), a senior professional and well-connected individual, the ordeal of tracing his lost iPhone 15 exposed a web of systemic inefficiencies, poor communication, and hidden truths.
Anura lost his phone on 15 Dec., 2024, while travelling in a Colombo suburb. What followed was a grueling process that highlighted the bureaucratic labyrinth ordinary citizens must navigate. Acting on the advice of two telecommunications veterans, he embarked on a quest to retrieve his phone only to encounter roadblocks at every turn.
Ravi, a retired IT engineer with over four decades of experience, outlined a standard procedure: file a police report, present it to the mobile network provider, and let the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) handle the rest. Siri, a board member of a prominent telecom network, confirmed that bypassing the police was not an option due to legal requirements.
Despite their expertise, neither expert was aware of a critical fact: the phone-tracking system had been compromised in 2022. Anura’s initial attempts at the police station were equally disheartening. Officers refused to provide him with a copy of his complaint, citing outdated practices, and he spent hours navigating red tape before finally obtaining a certified copy.
With the police report in hand, Anura visited the TRC in Narahenpita. The experience was no less frustrating. Initially directed back to the police by security staff, Anura had to argue his way into the premises. Inside, a polite but unhelpful officer informed him that the system for tracing lost phones had not been operational since 2018.
The officer defended the TRC’s actions, stating they had informed the Inspector General of Police of the changes, expecting the information to trickle down to individual stations. Anura, however, was unimpressed. “This top-down communication approach is ineffective,” he argued, highlighting the needless time, effort, and money wasted by citizens due to a lack of public awareness.
During his discussions, Anura uncovered an unsettling truth: the phone-tracking system was compromised.
“Your problem,” Anura told the TRC officer, “is sending people here and there without telling them the truth. If criminals know the system is down, they might exploit it—but hiding it isn’t the solution.”
Frustrated but undeterred, Anura vowed to bring the issue to light. He criticised the TRC for its lack of accountability, calling for a more proactive approach to public communication. “If I were the minister or the PM, I would prioritise making citizens’ lives easier and saving public resources,” he said.
On his way out, Anura ensured he had proof of his visit by photographing the TRC’s logbook, documenting yet another step in his relentless pursuit of accountability.
Anura’s experience serves as a cautionary tale about the consequences of poor communication and systemic inefficiencies. It underscores the urgent need for:
Transparent Communication: Regulatory bodies like the TRC must ensure critical updates reach all stakeholders, including the public, in a clear and accessible manner.
Streamlined Processes: Citizens should not have to endure unnecessary delays and expenses to resolve simple issues.
Accountability: Authorities must take responsibility for addressing systemic failures instead of deflecting blame.
As citizens, we must demand better. Until then, stories like Anura’s will remain a stark reminder of the work that still needs to be done.
The aforesaid incident highlights the need for transparent communication, streamlined processes, and greater accountability from regulatory bodies. Anura’s ordeal is a wake-up call for systemic reform to save citizens from unnecessary inconvenience and wasted resources.
Eng. P. N. D. Abeysuriya
Colombo
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