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INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY’S DOUBLE-EDGED CONTRIBUTION

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Students march in Dhaka on Saturday as they demand justice for victims arrested and killed in the recent nationwide violence

by Jehan Perera

Sri Lanka has so far been spared the riots and political instability that has rocked other countries facing debt repayment crises. Kenya and more recently Bangladesh have seen large scale rioting that are directly the consequence of economic problems that have sharpened the pain felt by the masses of people. Sri Lanka too was heading in a similar direction at the time President Ranil Wickremesinghe took over the reins of government. The president’s handling of the economy, and the support he has obtained from the IMF to regain access to international loans, has won him plaudits from the international community. Ironically, the majority of Sri Lankan people, though patient and quiet, may be having a different view which may explain the president’s apparent reluctance to test his popularity at the presidential election.

However, the question of whether the presidential election will indeed take place as constitutionally mandated appears to have been finally settled by the announcement of September 21 as the date of the elections by the Election Commissioner. This issue was at the centre stage of public speculation over the past several months. Several months ago, the president appointed a presidential commission to consider changes to the constitution and government ministers started to talk about abolishing the presidency. It reached a crescendo when petitions were filed in the Supreme Court asking for a postponement of the presidential elections, the president insisted on gazetting the 22nd Amendment and then expressed doubts as to whether the election could be held after the Supreme Court suspended the IGP from his position until the case against his appointment was decided upon.

The speculation about the holding of the presidential election was also given credence, even by the international community, when some of them voiced their concerns about elections undermining the progress of the IMF debt restructuring process. However, when US ambassador Julie Chung welcomed the setting of the date of the election by the Election Commission, the die was cast for the elections. President Wickremesinghe, with his understanding of international politics, would have realized that any postponement of the elections would not be tolerated by the international community in particular, which was otherwise very supportive of his economic reforms. The international community and its representatives in Sri Lanka by and large have indicated on many occasions that they are supportive of the IMF led debt restructuring process but also of the democratic process.

PEOPLE SUFFER

The support given to the IMF debt restructuring process by the international community is hardly to be surprised at, as the rich countries are the main beneficiaries of the present economic order that extracts the resources out of poorer countries. It is in their enlightened self-interest to see the IMF led process as the way for Sri Lanka to recover. In their most recent statement after making yet another visit to Sri Lanka, the IMF team stated “The economic reform program implemented by the Sri Lankan authorities is yielding commendable outcomes. The recovery continues with real GDP posting three consecutive quarters of expansion, and growth accelerating to 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. Inflation remains contained below the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) 5 percent target and domestic borrowing rates have declined. Gross international reserves increased by US$1.2 billion during the first half of 2024 and reached US$5.6 billion.”

However, the IMF team had the grace to also warn that more hardship will be the lot of the general population. “With Sri Lanka’s knife-edged recovery at a critical juncture, sustaining the reform momentum and ensuring timely implementation of all programme commitments are critical to cement the hard-won economic progress to date and put the economy on a firm footing. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring debt sustainability require further efforts to raise fiscal revenues.” In other words, more money needed to be extracted from the country, which suggests that the general population who are already paying two to three times as much for their basic essentials while earning more or less the same as they did three years ago will have to pay even more and consume even less.

The question is whether the economic turnaround which has been highlighted by the IMF is actually benefiting the people. The evidence is negative as the poverty level has doubled to 26 percent and is also borne out in statistics that show malnutrition and stunting increasingly affecting children. In 2015, the per capita consumption of fish was around 30 kg per year. Today it has dropped to around 19 kg. This is a catastrophic fall as nearly 60 percent of animal protein consumed by Sri Lankan people comes from fish. The fall in consumption is due to the high price of fish, which in turn is caused by the lower catches of fish due to the price of fuel increasing three fold and making it unprofitable for fishers to venture into the deep seas to catch more fish which they cannot sell at the price it costs.

Sri Lanka’s recent debt restructuring agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its bondholders has sparked significant debate and criticism. According to Verite Research’s Dr Nishan de Mel, the debt sustainability parameters Sri Lanka agreed with the IMF are not workable and the country will not achieve debt sustainability on the current path set out. It has to do something different or it will become prey to further defaults in the future. He advocates two options. The first is “Go back to square one internationally: announce that Sri Lanka government and the IMF need to redraw the Debt Sustainability parameters, do that, and restart the negotiations, without losing too much of the necessary goodwill among all parties to the process.”

BAD DEAL

Sri Lanka’s new government after the presidential election will face huge challenges, ranging from economic recovery to dealing with corruption and addressing potential issues of renewed ethnic conflict if the economic collapse continues or gets worse. Tackling these issues demands a holistic and inclusive approach. Foremost among these is the challenge of economic recovery. Despite optimistic government declarations, the tangible benefits of economic recovery have not reached the majority of the populace whether in the north or south, east or west. This creates a potentially volatile situation. The people have, by and large, been patient and quiet in the expectation that they will be able to change the government at the coming election and the government will show results soon. The danger is that if it fails, the demons of the past who are now hiding in the woodwork can re-emerge.

Addressing the issue of economic recovery that benefits the majority of people will necessitate a multifaceted approach. The negotiations that the government claims it engaged in successfully cannot be called successful in comparison to terms obtained by other defaulting countries. There can hardly be any doubt that the deal obtained cannot be described as successful. A research study by Graf von Luckner C.M. Meyer J. Reinhart C.M. Trebesch C., (Publication Date, 06/2024) pointed out that “over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts”. Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent.” In comparison, the Sri Lankan haircut is so negligible that neither the IMF nor government are clearly saying what it is.

The first priority of the new government would be to renegotiate the terms of debt restructuring with the IMF and other international creditors. Sri Lanka’s dire economic situation has led foreign creditors to capitalise on the country’s desperation to escape bankruptcy, demanding onerous terms, that the government in a hurry agreed to. Secondly, it is crucial to shift the economic burden away from the poor, who are least capable of shouldering additional financial strain. The government’s targeting of the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) for restructuring, effectively reducing pensions payable to workers while sparing banks and corporations (including those that owe billions to the banks), exemplifies an inequitable approach that has disproportionately impacted the vulnerable. A more balanced strategy is needed to ensure that the costs of economic recovery are fairly distributed and Sri Lanka does not go down the road of Kenya and Bangladesh.



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US’ drastic aid cut to UN poses moral challenge to world

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An UN humanitarian mission in the Gaza. [File: Ashraf Amra/Anadolu Agency]

‘Adapt, shrink or die’ – thus runs the warning issued by the Trump administration to UN humanitarian agencies with brute insensitivity in the wake of its recent decision to drastically reduce to $2bn its humanitarian aid to the UN system. This is a substantial climb down from the $17bn the US usually provided to the UN for its humanitarian operations.

Considering that the US has hitherto been the UN’s biggest aid provider, it need hardly be said that the US decision would pose a daunting challenge to the UN’s humanitarian operations around the world. This would indeed mean that, among other things, people living in poverty and stifling material hardships, in particularly the Southern hemisphere, could dramatically increase. Coming on top of the US decision to bring to an end USAID operations, the poor of the world could be said to have been left to their devices as a consequence of these morally insensitive policy rethinks of the Trump administration.

Earlier, the UN had warned that it would be compelled to reduce its aid programs in the face of ‘the deepest funding cuts ever.’ In fact the UN is on record as requesting the world for $23bn for its 2026 aid operations.

If this UN appeal happens to go unheeded, the possibilities are that the UN would not be in a position to uphold the status it has hitherto held as the world’s foremost humanitarian aid provider. It would not be incorrect to state that a substantial part of the rationale for the UN’s existence could come in for questioning if its humanitarian identity is thus eroded.

Inherent in these developments is a challenge for those sections of the international community that wish to stand up and be counted as humanists and the ‘Conscience of the World.’ A responsibility is cast on them to not only keep the UN system going but to also ensure its increased efficiency as a humanitarian aid provider to particularly the poorest of the poor.

It is unfortunate that the US is increasingly opting for a position of international isolation. Such a policy position was adopted by it in the decades leading to World War Two and the consequences for the world as a result for this policy posture were most disquieting. For instance, it opened the door to the flourishing of dictatorial regimes in the West, such as that led by Adolph Hitler in Germany, which nearly paved the way for the subjugation of a good part of Europe by the Nazis.

If the US had not intervened militarily in the war on the side of the Allies, the West would have faced the distressing prospect of coming under the sway of the Nazis and as a result earned indefinite political and military repression. By entering World War Two the US helped to ward off these bleak outcomes and indeed helped the major democracies of Western Europe to hold their own and thrive against fascism and dictatorial rule.

Republican administrations in the US in particular have not proved the greatest defenders of democratic rule the world over, but by helping to keep the international power balance in favour of democracy and fundamental human rights they could keep under a tight leash fascism and linked anti-democratic forces even in contemporary times. Russia’s invasion and continued occupation of parts of Ukraine reminds us starkly that the democracy versus fascism battle is far from over.

Right now, the US needs to remain on the side of the rest of the West very firmly, lest fascism enjoys another unfettered lease of life through the absence of countervailing and substantial military and political power.

However, by reducing its financial support for the UN and backing away from sustaining its humanitarian programs the world over the US could be laying the ground work for an aggravation of poverty in the South in particular and its accompaniments, such as, political repression, runaway social discontent and anarchy.

What should not go unnoticed by the US is the fact that peace and social stability in the South and the flourishing of the same conditions in the global North are symbiotically linked, although not so apparent at first blush. For instance, if illegal migration from the South to the US is a major problem for the US today, it is because poor countries are not receiving development assistance from the UN system to the required degree. Such deprivation on the part of the South leads to aggravating social discontent in the latter and consequences such as illegal migratory movements from South to North.

Accordingly, it will be in the North’s best interests to ensure that the South is not deprived of sustained development assistance since the latter is an essential condition for social contentment and stable governance, which factors in turn would guard against the emergence of phenomena such as illegal migration.

Meanwhile, democratic sections of the rest of the world in particular need to consider it a matter of conscience to ensure the sustenance and flourishing of the UN system. To be sure, the UN system is considerably flawed but at present it could be called the most equitable and fair among international development organizations and the most far-flung one. Without it world poverty would have proved unmanageable along with the ills that come along with it.

Dehumanizing poverty is an indictment on humanity. It stands to reason that the world community should rally round the UN and ensure its survival lest the abomination which is poverty flourishes. In this undertaking the world needs to stand united. Ambiguities on this score could be self-defeating for the world community.

For example, all groupings of countries that could demonstrate economic muscle need to figure prominently in this initiative. One such grouping is BRICS. Inasmuch as the US and the West should shrug aside Realpolitik considerations in this enterprise, the same goes for organizations such as BRICS.

The arrival at the above international consensus would be greatly facilitated by stepped up dialogue among states on the continued importance of the UN system. Fresh efforts to speed-up UN reform would prove major catalysts in bringing about these positive changes as well. Also requiring to be shunned is the blind pursuit of narrow national interests.

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Egg white scene …

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Hi! Great to be back after my Christmas break.

Thought of starting this week with egg white.

Yes, eggs are brimming with nutrients beneficial for your overall health and wellness, but did you know that eggs, especially the whites, are excellent for your complexion?

OK, if you have no idea about how to use egg whites for your face, read on.

Egg White, Lemon, Honey:

Separate the yolk from the egg white and add about a teaspoon of freshly squeezed lemon juice and about one and a half teaspoons of organic honey. Whisk all the ingredients together until they are mixed well.

Apply this mixture to your face and allow it to rest for about 15 minutes before cleansing your face with a gentle face wash.

Don’t forget to apply your favourite moisturiser, after using this face mask, to help seal in all the goodness.

Egg White, Avocado:

In a clean mixing bowl, start by mashing the avocado, until it turns into a soft, lump-free paste, and then add the whites of one egg, a teaspoon of yoghurt and mix everything together until it looks like a creamy paste.

Apply this mixture all over your face and neck area, and leave it on for about 20 to 30 minutes before washing it off with cold water and a gentle face wash.

Egg White, Cucumber, Yoghurt:

In a bowl, add one egg white, one teaspoon each of yoghurt, fresh cucumber juice and organic honey. Mix all the ingredients together until it forms a thick paste.

Apply this paste all over your face and neck area and leave it on for at least 20 minutes and then gently rinse off this face mask with lukewarm water and immediately follow it up with a gentle and nourishing moisturiser.

Egg White, Aloe Vera, Castor Oil:

To the egg white, add about a teaspoon each of aloe vera gel and castor oil and then mix all the ingredients together and apply it all over your face and neck area in a thin, even layer.

Leave it on for about 20 minutes and wash it off with a gentle face wash and some cold water. Follow it up with your favourite moisturiser.

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Confusion cropping up with Ne-Yo in the spotlight

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Ne-Yo: His management should clarify the last-minute cancellation

Superlatives galore were used, especially on social media, to highlight R&B singer Ne-Yo’s trip to Sri Lanka: Global superstar Ne-Yo to perform live in Colombo this December; Ne-Yo concert puts Sri Lanka back on the global entertainment map; A global music sensation is coming to Sri Lanka … and there were lots more!

At an official press conference, held at a five-star venue, in Colombo, it was indicated that the gathering marked a defining moment for Sri Lanka’s entertainment industry as international R&B powerhouse and three-time Grammy Award winner Ne-Yo prepares to take the stage in Colombo this December.

What’s more, the occasion was graced by the presence of Sunil Kumara Gamage, Minister of Sports & Youth Affairs of Sri Lanka, and Professor Ruwan Ranasinghe, Deputy Minister of Tourism, alongside distinguished dignitaries, sponsors, and members of the media.

Shah Rukh Khan: Disappointed his fans in Sri Lanka

According to reports, the concert had received the official endorsement of the Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau, recognising it as a flagship initiative in developing the country’s concert economy by attracting fans, and media, from all over South Asia.

Nick Carter: His concert, too, was cancelled due to “Unforeseen circumstances

However, I had that strange feeling that this concert would not become a reality, keeping in mind what happened to Nick Carter’s Colombo concert – cancelled at the very last moment.

Carter issued a video message announcing he had to return to the USA due to “unforeseen circumstances” and a “family emergency”.

Though “unforeseen circumstances” was the official reason provided by Carter and the local organisers, there was speculation that low ticket sales may also have been a factor in the cancellation.

Well, “Unforeseen Circumstances” has cropped up again!

In a brief statement, via social media, the organisers of the Ne-Yo concert said the decision was taken due to “unforeseen circumstances and factors beyond their control.”

Ne-Yo, too, subsequently made an announcement, citing “Unforeseen circumstances.”

The public has a right to know what these “unforeseen circumstances” are, and who is to be blamed – the organisers or Ne-Yo!

Ne-Yo’s management certainly need to come out with the truth.

However, those who are aware of some of the happenings in the setup here put it down to poor ticket sales, mentioning that the tickets for the concert, and a meet-and-greet event, were exorbitantly high, considering that Ne-Yo is not a current mega star.

We also had a cancellation coming our way from Shah Rukh Khan, who was scheduled to visit Sri Lanka for the City of Dreams resort launch, and then this was received: “Unfortunately due to unforeseen personal reasons beyond his control, Mr. Khan is no longer able to attend.”

Referring to this kind of mess up, a leading showbiz personality said that it will only make people reluctant to buy their tickets, online.

“Tickets will go mostly at the gate and it will be very bad for the industry,” he added.

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