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IMF China and debt-trap

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by N.A.de S. Amaratunga

The above topic is relevant to all countries experiencing economic crises for IMF and China, it appears are alternative and perhaps competing sources for economic aid and they are both accused of causing debt-traps for the recipient countries. IMF is accused by people like Joseph Stiglitz of manipulating the economy of poor countries in such a way that there is a drain of their wealth for the benefit of the rich countries. China is accused of trapping the recipients of its aid to cough out to the Chinese their valuable national assets like harbours and airports. Poor countries have turned to China after realising the apparent folly of following IMF policy and China has willingly stepped in to displace the IMF. In this context IMF is perceived as a tool of the Western powers and China as the alternative power that could stand up against Western imperialism.

Sri Lanka seemingly is in a situation where it is not possible to be choosy. Most of the economic advisers have been asking the government to go for an IMF programme since 2019 when the early symptoms of an economic downturn were visible. However, the then government decided not to go to IMF but tried out other measures like heavy cuts on tax and stabilizing the rupee against the dollar. These plus other blunders like a ban on agro-chemicals brought the country to bankruptcy forcing it to default on debt repayment and to decide to seek IMF assistance. IMF may have already asked the government to adopt policies that may cause lot of hardship to people. Heavy taxation has been brought back. Loss making public enterprises may have to be privatized. Welfarism may have to be curtailed with less public expenditure. Market forces may have to be given more freedom with less government intervention.

All these measures would finally hurt the lower middle class and the poor. This is where the Chinese factor comes in. The relevant questions are whether China is an alternative to IMF, whether its presence as a player in the global debt scenario would give recipient countries the opportunity to negotiate with the IMF for more favourable terms and conditions and whether any of these lenders have designs on the recipients. These are important questions for Sri Lanka at the present moment as negotiations with the IMF are not finalised, rescheduling of debt is still being discussed and nothing is certain yet. And China seems to be closely watching the unfolding events, all the time promising every assistance.

A research study done by James Sundquist (2021) involving 104 developing countries covering the period from 2001 to 2017 has shown that Chinese aid has helped some countries to turn away from the IMF and others to negotiate deals with less damaging conditions. Chinese loans may have achieved much more than the loudest critics of the IMF. Plain criticism of the IMF has not brought any results beneficial to poor countries. But the competition brought on by China has resulted in the change of policy in relation to terms and conditions of the IMF. In 1996 the IMF and the World Bank developed the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative, under which low-income countries with multi-year track records of good policies would qualify for grants in association with their concessional loans.

The HIPC initiative soon came under heavy criticism for “offering too little relief too slowly to too few,” with only four countries obtaining full stock of available debt relief before the end of the century. In 1999, the Bretton Woods institutions “enhanced” the Initiative by lowering the bar for judging whether debt was unsustainable and providing debt relief and grants sooner to qualifying countries. Within three years, enhanced HIPC could deliver almost US$1 billion in debt relief to 25 countries.

Critics of China on its role as an aid-giver accuse China of many dirty tricks including 1) prioritising short term projects instead of long term programmes aimed at sustainable prosperity, 2) non-transparent lending with little regard for issues such as corruption and money laundering and 3) promoting infra-structure projects that benefit China’s economy, for instance its imports of raw materialas and export of manufactured goods.

However, if China is intent on ensnaring poor helpless countries it would target countries like Zimbabwe, but it did not come forward to bail out that country for it was seen that Zimbabwe had no reliable foreign exchange earning capacity. This shows that China focuses on debt sustainability of a country rather than its vulnerability that provides an opportunity to trap them and force them to part with their national assets. Countries which export large volumes of natural resources are the most likely to benefit from Chinese aid. This could mean that China may not be interested in encouraging these countries to develop their technology that would enable them to add value to their natural resources before they export them. Yet there are countries which see China as an alternative to the IMF. China may not be engaged in ensnaring poor countries but it certainly is interested in their natural resources.

Financial Times reports (18th January 2022) that some 74 low- and middle-income countries “will have to repay an estimated $35 bn to official bilateral and private-sector lenders in 2022”, which is a 45% increase compared with 2020, “with seen as one of most vulnerable.” Ghana, Salvador and Tunisia could also be in jeopardy. Zambia defaulted in 2020 on an amount of $3 billion and the situation has not improved. The Zambian government is negotiating a new loan from the IMF, which, if granted, will demand more austerity measures. As explained in the Financial Times, this surge is a consequence of developing countries contracting ever more debt to face the impact of coronavirus, but also of the rising cost of refinancing existing loans and the resumption of debt repayments that had been suspended during the pandemic. David Malpass, President of the World Bank, warned that the creditors’ insistence on being paid will increase the risk of disorderly defaults. “Countries are facing a resumption of debt payments at precisely the time when they don’t have the resources to be making them,” he said.

Almost all countries take loans from other countries with the US being the biggest borrower. For the rich it is a game they can play and also enjoy very well. But for the poor countries it is a matter of life and death. The slightest mishap, eg; Covid pandemic, and their survival is in danger. This is so mainly because the system involving global debt is so designed that it ensures a flow of wealth from the poor to the rich. The IMF and the World Bank may have changed their policies, but that may be to prevent the total death of the indebted countries but not with the intention of making them prosperous. The idea is to keep the developing countries in a permanant state of poverty and remain suppliers of raw materials and cheap labour. “The hidden agenda, the one that is actually applied, is to subordinate the public and private spheres of all human societies to the capitalist imperative of seeking maximum . The implementation of this hidden agenda results in reproducing poverty rather than reducing it and in increasing inequalities rather than reducing them. It results in stagnation, if not deterioration, of the living conditions of a great majority of the world’s population, concurrently with a greater and greater concentration of wealth in the hands of a smaller and smaller elite. A further result is the continued deterioration of ecological balances, which means that the very future of humanity is in danger” (Eric Toussaint, 2022).

China, if it is not a party to this evil system must try to help change the system. Chinese economy is not entirly profit dependent and neo-liberal. It must come forward, as it has shown in the recent past, at this critical hour to help the poor countries come out of the debt-trap they have got into. It must get together with other like-minded countries to set up an alternative to the IMF. This new organisation could prevent poor countries from being entrapped by the imperialist forces. It could strengthen the negotiating capacity of poor countries which have to obtain loans for their survival. It should be possible for these countries to get some aid without having to mortgage their future survival.



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Fractious West facing a more solidified Eastern opposition

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An Iranian attack on a neighbouring Gulf state. Image courtesy BBC.

Going forward, it is hoped that a reported ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would provide a basis for a degree of stability in the Middle East and pave the way for substantive peace talks between the powers concerned. The world is compelled to fall back on hope because there is never knowing when President Donald Trump would change his mind and plans on matters of the first importance. So erratic has he been.

Yet, confusion abounds on who has agreed to what. The US President is on record that a number of conditions put forward by him to Iran to deescalate tensions have been accepted by the latter, whereas Iran is yet to state unambiguously that this is so. For instance, the US side claims that Iran has come clear on the point that it would not work towards acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, but there is no official confirmation by Iran that this is so. The same goes for the rest of the conditions.

Accordingly, the peace process between the US and Iran, if such a thing solidly exists, could be said to be mired in uncertainty. Nevertheless, the wider publics of the world are bound to welcome the prospects of some sort of ceasing of hostilities because it would have the effect of improving their economic and material well being which is today under a cloud.

However, questions of the first magnitude would continue to bedevil international politics and provide the breeding ground for continued tensions between East and West. Iran-US hostilities helped highlight some of these divisive issues and a deescalation of these tensions would not inevitably translate into even a temporary resolution of these questions. The world community would have no choice but to take them up and work towards comprehending them better and managing them more effectively.

For example, there are thorny questions arising from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Essentially, this treaty bans the processing and use of nuclear weapons by states but some of the foremost powers are not signatories to it.

Moreover, the NPT does not provide for the destroying of nuclear arsenals by those signatory states which are already in possession of these WMDs. Consequently, there would be a glaring power imbalance between the latter nuclear-armed states and others which possess only conventional weapons.

Such a situation has grave implications for Iran’s security, for instance. The latter could argue, in view of the NPT restrictions, that the US poses a security threat to it but that it is debarred by the Treaty from developing a nuclear arms capability of its own to enable it to match the nuclear capability of the US. Moreover, its regional rival Israel is believed to possess a nuclear weapons capability.

Accordingly, a case could be made that the NPT is inherently unfair. The US would need to help resolve this vexatious matter going forward. But if it remains, US-Iran tensions would not prove easy to resolve. The same goes for Iran-Israeli tensions. Consequently, the Middle East would remain the proverbial ‘powder keg’.

Besides the above issues, the world has ample evidence that it could no longer speak in terms of a united NATO or West. Apparently, there could be no guarantee that US-NATO relations would remain untroubled in future, even if the current Iran-US standoff is peacefully resolved. US-NATO ties almost reached breaking point in the current crisis when the US President called on its NATO partners, particularly Britain, to help keep open the Hormuz Straits for easy navigation by commercial vessels, militarily, on seeing that such help was not forthcoming. Such questions are bound to remain sore points in intra-Western ties.

In other words, it would be imperative for the US’ NATO partners to help pull the US’ ‘chestnuts out of the fire’ going ahead. The question is, would NATO be willing to thus toe the US line even at the cost of its best interests.

For the West, these fractious issues are coming to the fore at a most unpropitious moment. The reality that could faze the West at present is the strong opposition shown to its efforts to bolster its power and influence by China and Russia. Right through the present crisis, the latter have stood by Iran, materially and morally. For instance, the most recent Security Council resolution spearheaded by the US which was strongly critical of Iran, was vetoed by China and Russia.

Accordingly, we have in the latter developments some marked polarities in international politics that could stand in the way of the West advancing its interests unchallenged. They point to progressively intensifying East-West tensions in international relations in the absence of consensuality.

It is only to be expected that given the substance of international politics that the West would be opposed by the East, read China and Russia, in any of the former’s efforts to advance its self interests unilaterally in ways that could be seen as illegitimate, but what is sorely needed at present is consensuality among the foremost powers if the world is to be ‘a less dangerous place to live in.’ Minus a focus on the latter, it would be a ‘no-win’ situation for all concerned.

It would be central to world stability for International Law to be upheld by all states and international actors. Military intervention by major powers in the internal affairs of other countries remains a principal cause of international mayhem. Both East and West are obliged to abide scrupulously with this principle.

From the latter viewpoint, not only did the West err in recent times, but the East did so as well. Iran, for instance, acted in gross violation of International Law when it attacked neighbouring Gulf states which are seen as US allies. Neither Iran nor the US-Israel combine have helped in advancing international law and order by thus taking the law into their own hands.

Unfortunately, the UN has been a passive spectator to these disruptive developments. It needs to play a more robust role in promoting world peace and in furthering consensual understanding among the principal powers in particular. The need is also urgent to advance UN reform and render the UN a vital instrument in furthering world peace. The East and West need to think alike and quickly on this urgent undertaking.

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Science-driven health policies key to tackling emerging challenges — UNFPA

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Dr. Dayanath Ranatunga

Marking World Health Day on April 7, health experts have called for a stronger commitment to science-based decision-making to address increasingly complex and evolving health challenges in Sri Lanka and beyond.

Dr. Dayanath Ranatunga, Assistant Representative of the United Nations Population Fund, stressed that health is no longer confined to hospitals or traditional medical systems, but is shaped by a broad spectrum of social, environmental, and technological factors.

“This year’s theme, ‘Together for Health. Stand with Science,’ reminds us that science is not only for laboratories or policymakers. It is a way of thinking and a tool that shapes everyday decisions,” he said.

Dr. Ranatunga noted that modern health challenges are increasingly interconnected, ranging from infectious diseases such as COVID-19 to climate-related risks, demographic shifts, and emerging forms of online violence.

He warned that maternal and newborn health continues to demand urgent attention despite progress. Globally, an estimated 260,000 women died from pregnancy and childbirth-related causes in 2023 alone—many of them preventable through timely, science-based interventions.

“In countries like Sri Lanka, where fertility rates are declining and survival rates improving, every pregnancy carries greater significance—not just for families, but for the future of communities and economies,” he said.

The UNFPA official also highlighted the growing threat of Technology Facilitated Gender-Based Violence (TFGBV), including cyber harassment and online abuse, noting that these forms of violence can have deep psychological consequences despite lacking visible physical harm.

He emphasised the need for multidisciplinary, science-informed approaches that integrate mental health, digital safety, and survivor-centered care.

Turning to demographic trends, Dr. Ranatunga pointed out that increasing life expectancy is bringing new challenges, particularly the rise of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular illnesses, and cancers.

In Sri Lanka, nearly 13.9% of mothers develop diabetes during pregnancy, a trend attributed to obesity and unhealthy lifestyles, underscoring the urgent need for preventive healthcare strategies.

“Are we investing enough in prevention?” he asked, noting that early intervention and healthier lifestyles could significantly reduce long-term healthcare costs, especially in a country with a free public healthcare system.

He underscored the importance of data-driven policymaking, stating that scientific research and analytics enable governments to identify gaps, anticipate future needs, and allocate resources more effectively.

The UNFPA, he said, is already leveraging tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to improve access to maternal healthcare, including mapping travel times for pregnant women to reach health facilities.

Digital innovation is also transforming healthcare delivery, from telemedicine to real-time data systems, improving efficiency and ensuring continuity of care even during emergencies.

In Sri Lanka, partnerships between the government and development agencies are helping to modernise training institutions, including facilities in Batticaloa, equipping healthcare workers with both clinical and digital skills.

However, Dr. Ranatunga cautioned that technology alone is not a solution.

“It must be guided by evidence and grounded in equity,” he said, pointing out that women’s health remains significantly underfunded, with only about 7% of global healthcare research focusing on conditions specific to women.

He also drew attention to the growing health impacts of climate change, including extreme weather, food insecurity, and displacement, describing it as an emerging public health crisis.

“Health does not begin in hospitals. It is shaped by the environments we live in, the choices we make, and the systems we build,” he said.

Calling for renewed commitment, Dr. Ranatunga urged stakeholders to invest in prevention, embrace innovation, and ensure that science remains central to policy and practice.

“Science is not just about knowledge—it is about ensuring that everyone has the opportunity to live healthy, dignified lives, and that no one is left behind,” he added.

 

By Ifham Nizam

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Sharing the festive joy with ‘Awurudu Kaale’

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The visually impaired who make up Bright Light Band in Awurudu attire

Melantha Perera is well known as a very versatile musician.

He was involved with the band Mirage, as their keyboardist/vocalist, and was also seen in action with other outfits, as well, before embarking on a trip to Australia, as a solo artiste.

I now hear that he has plans to operate as a trio.

However, what has got many talking about Melantha, these days, is his awesome work with the visually impaired Bright Light Band.

They have worked out a special song for the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, aptly titled ‘Awurudu Kaale.

Says Melantha: “This song has been created to celebrate the spirit of the Sinhala and Tamil New Year and to share the joy of the Awurudu season with all Sri Lankans”.

Yes, of course, Melantha composed the song, with the lyrics written collaboratively by Melantha, Badra, and the parents of the talented performers, whose creative input brought the song to life during moments of inspiration.

Melantha Perera: Awesome work with Bright Light Band

This meaningful collaboration reflects the strong community behind the Bright Light Band.

According to Melantha, accompaning the song is a vibrant video production that also features the involvement of the parents, highlighting unity, joy, and togetherness.

Beyond showcasing their musical talents, the visually impaired members of Bright Light Band deliver a powerful message, through this project, that their abilities extend beyond singing, as they also express themselves through movement and dance.

Melantha expressed his satisfaction with the outcome of the project and looks forward to sharing it with audiences across the country during this festive season.

He went on to say that Bright Light Band extends its sincere gratitude to Bcert Australia for their generous Mian sponsorship, the CEO of the company, Samath Fernando, for his continuous support in making such initiatives possible, and Rukshan Perera for his personal support and encouragement in bringing this project to completion.

The band also acknowledges Udara Fernando for his invaluable contribution, generously providing studio space and accommodating extended recording sessions to suit the children’s availability.

Appreciation is warmly extended to the parents, whose unwavering commitment from ensuring attendance at rehearsals to supporting the video production has been instrumental in the success of this project.

Through ‘Awurudu Kaale’, Bright Light Band hopes to spread festive cheer and inspire audiences, proving that passion and talent know no boundaries.

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