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Midweek Review

How Quad strategy to contain China affects Sri Lanka

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President Rajapaksa greets Lord Ahmad while FM Prof. Peiris and BHC Hulton look on. In the wake of the Lord British Human Rights Minister's visit, the BHC announced funding through the Conflict, Stability, and Security Fund (CSSF) to address what the British called 'legacies of conflict, promote human rights and build cohesion across all communities through programme funding of up to £3.7m in 2022/23' pic courtesy PMD

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The Japanese Embassy in Colombo on the afternoon of January 19 organised a joint media briefing at Sasakawa Hall with the participation of Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris to announce plans for the 70th anniversary commemoration of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Among those who addressed the media, in addition to twice Foreign Minister Prof. Peiris, were Foreign Secretary Admiral Prof. Jayanath Colombage and Japanese Ambassador in Colombo Mizukoshi Hideaki.

Prof. Peiris served as the External Affairs Minister (2010-2015) and was re-appointed in August 2021.

The current status of Sri Lanka-Japan relations cannot be discussed without taking into consideration the alignment or, more appropriately, the ganging up of certain Western powers and their allies against the People’s Republic of China whose relationship with Sri Lanka has irked the US-led grouping. Let me, briefly mention three other recent events/developments, namely visits undertaken here by the UK Minister of State for South Asia, the United Nations and the Commonwealth Lord Tariq Ahmad and the Speaker of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea, Park Byeong-Seug and a sudden shocking Canadian Travel Advisory primarily targeting Sri Lanka’s efforts to revive tourism, before examination of Sri Lanka-Japan diplomatic relations.

Japan, Korea, the UK and Canada are part of the US-led coalition against China. There is absolutely no ambiguity in their stand. In line with their overall strategic objectives, they pursue an agenda inimical to war-winning Sri Lanka at the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Unfortunately overwhelmed by their well-rehearsed chorus, backed by their International NGO hacks, Sri Lanka lacked political will at least to set the record straight. Over 12 years after the successful conclusion of the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) despite all odds arraigned against us, Sri Lanka remains entangled in a well-coordinated so-called accountability process meant to undermine the country. Continuing humiliation of the war-winning armed forces is part of their overall strategy.

Three years after the war (March 2012), a resolution targeting Sri Lanka was adopted at the UNHRC. Twenty four countries voted against Sri Lanka, 15 for the country, whereas eight abstained. India voted against Sri Lanka. The UK, Japan and Korea didn’t represent the UNHRC at that time. Sri Lanka’s current Ambassador in Washington Mahinda Samarasinghe led the government delegation.

The UNHRC membership is based on equitable geographical distribution. Seats are distributed as follows: African States 13 seats, Asia-Pacific States 13 seats, Latin American and Caribbean States eight seats, Western European and other States seven seats and Eastern European States six seats.

At the March 2014 session, the UNHRC adopted a resolution that paved the way for the HRC Chief, who is obviously a part of the conspiracy against countries like Sri Lanka targeted by the self-appointed international community of the West, to undertake a comprehensive investigation into alleged serious violations and abuses of human rights and related crimes ostensibly against both parties in Sri Lanka. But in actual fact it is only Colombo that they are targeting! While the Tiger military/terror machine was vanquished on the banks of the Nanthikadal lagoon in May 2009 by the security forces, those like the TNA that backed the LTTE terror machine to the hilt, until the very end, continue to be the darlings of the West. The resolution was adopted thanks to the Western clout with 23 countries in favour, 12 against and 12 abstentions. Korea and the UK voted in favour, whereas India and Japan abstained.

Korea and the UK again voted in favour of the anti-Sri Lanka resolution at the March 2021 session whereas Japan and India abstained. Korea and the UK were among 22 countries which denounced Sri Lanka. Eleven countries opposed the resolution while the rest abstained. Those who skipped the vote included New Delhi and Tokyo. The March 2021 resolution empowered the HRC Chief to collect and store information that could lead to international criminal proceedings.

Moving beyond Comprehensive Partnership

In between the second (March 2014) and third resolutions (March 2021), Sri Lanka co-sponsored a resolution (Oct 2015) against her own armed forces. Within a week after the Geneva betrayal, the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe entered into a Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CPA) with Japan. The signing took place in Tokyo on Oct 6, 2015. The then Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe signed on behalf of Japan. The CPA has to be considered against the backdrop of Tokyo being part of ‘Quad’ (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) comprising the US, India, Australia and Japan arrayed against China.

Ambassador Hideaki’s predecessor Akira Sugiyama last November called for further expansion of Japan – Sri Lanka ties beyond the CPA between the two countries on the eve of his departure from Colombo having concluded his term.

At his farewell meet with Prof. Peiris Ambassador Sugiyama has said that 70th anniversary celebrations would be a fitting occasion to enhance existing CPA to a further height.

In spite of tremendous pressure, South Korea has refrained from joining Quad as Seoul obviously does not want to antagonise China, its major trading partner. In the context of North and South Korean relations, Seoul cannot under any circumstances take a hostile stand against China, though South Korea being home to a strong US military presence. However, tiny Sri Lanka is not so lucky. Therefore, Sri Lanka shouldn’t expect South Korean support at the UNHRC. Seoul contributed to Sri Lanka’s humiliation both at the 2014 and 2021 sessions. In case, the US-UK alliance pushed for further action against Sri Lanka at the UNHRC this year, would South Korea be able at least to abstain in view of the 45th anniversary of formalising diplomatic ties with Sri Lanka.

Would South Korea ultimately end-up in Quad? The US led alliance is keen to bring Sri Lanka under its domain though China, too, appears to be well positioned here to enhance its influence. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi‘s recent whistle-stop visit to Colombo underscored how serious the Chinese took their project here. Sri Lanka should carefully examine the Quad approach as well as how individual countries responded to Colombo’s relationship with Beijing. Having allowed Chinese flagship project here, the Colombo Port City from the reclaimed sea, Sri Lanka cannot envisage an environment free of a string of Chinese presence here. In spite of pressure exerted by Western powers and India, Sri Lanka cannot adopt policies at the expense of China, an all-weather friend like Pakistan.

Sri Lanka faces a daunting challenge in balancing its relations with China and the US-led alliance that included India. Economically weak Sri Lanka can be exploited by both camps. The current dispensation as well as the Opposition should be mindful of their designs. Regardless of political differences, political parties represented in Parliament should seek consensus on foreign policy and related matters. A few corrupt politicians and officials shouldn’t be allowed to make personal gains at the expense of national interest. That is the stark and ugly truth.

UK’s agenda

Following Lord Tariq Ahmad’s meeting with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the Presidential Secretariat, the PMD (Presidential Media Division) issued a statement titled ‘Sri Lanka’s progress over human rights highly commendable….’ That statement quoted Ahmad as having declared at the meeting attended by Prof. Peiris and British High Commissioner in Colombo Sarah Hulton that Sri Lanka’s programme to empower human rights was making great strides. The PMD quoted him further that Sri Lanka would be able to resolve all issues pertaining to human rights by moving forward with a pragmatic approach to strengthen it. The PMD quoted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as having requested Lord Ahmad to provide an opportunity for discussions with the UK-based Diaspora. According to the PMD statement the President has assured the UK that his government aimed to solve all issues faced by Sri Lankans and create an environment where all Sri Lankans could live as one people.

However, Lord Ahmad in a short video issued at the end of his visit which he described as incredible three days certainly did not give any indication to support the PMD declaration as regards Sri Lanka’s progress on human rights.

First of all, the government should keep in mind that the UK, a member of the current UNHRC and the leader of the Sri Lanka Core Group at Geneva, wouldn’t do anything to ease pressure on Sri Lanka, especially ahead of the forthcoming Geneva session. Having succeeded the US as Sri Lanka Core Group leader, the UK relentlessly pursued Sri Lanka on the basis of unsubstantiated war crimes allegations. In spite of repeated calls by Lord Naseby to consider wartime (January-May 2009) UK High Commission dispatches from Colombo as part of the overall efforts to ascertain the truth, the UK has refused to do so.

We have to recall the fact that the UK became a great power not through sheer hard work the way the modern China has done. In fact it was one of the first narco-states dealing in opium, which brought China to its knees. It always plundered much of the world by a policy of divide and rule of its subjects as in Sri Lanka. And the problems here are without doubt the result of that policy, which favoured especially the minority Tamils over others. The same problems can be seen even in places like Burma to this day, where insurgencies are still engineered/financed mainly by the West. We will not go into India because the servile Premier Modi having got a seat at the head table of the Western camp and blinded by its glitter obviously often can’t see beyond his nose. Indians often forget how they were treated like lepers by the West till the collapse of the Soviet Union and how everything possible was done to undermine it and even to break it up.

Lord Naseby following over a two-year legal battle with his government in Oct 2017 disclosed a section of the dispatches from Colombo. The rest of the dispatches hadn’t been released on the basis their disclosure would undermine UK’s relations with Sri Lanka. During Dinesh Gunawardene’s tenure as the Foreign Minister, the UK turned down Sri Lanka’s request to submit the relevant documents to the UNHRC. President Rajapaksa brought in Prof. Peiris as his Foreign Minister last August.

Obviously the UK suppressed diplomatic cables sent by its wartime Defence Attaché Lt. Colonel Anthony Gash from the British High Commission, Colombo, because they ran counter to the claims made by the western bloc as regards Sri Lanka at the UNHRC.

Having visited Jaffna and Trincomalee, in addition to his meetings in Colombo, Lord Ahmad, in his video message made reference to human rights defenders and civil society representatives. The UK Human Rights Minister declared while he discussed a broad range of issues, including education, environment, investment opportunities as well as economy with government leaders, human rights defenders and members of the civil society shared with him the challenges faced by them.

It would be pertinent to ask whether any of those categorised as human rights defenders and civil society at least privately requested the British High Commission intervention in the wake of the LTTE using civilian human shield on the Vanni (east) front in 2009. The TNA leader R. Sampanthan, MP, who declared the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamil speaking people way back in 2001 was among those who met Lord Ahmad. Lawmaker Sampanthan never ever bothered to speak on behalf of those who had been trapped on the Vanni East front though he raised accountability issues at the end of the war.

The British, too, never sought at least an explanation from those who cooperated with the LTTE’s agenda. If the British are keen for reconciliation and justice for what had happened in the past as stressed by Lord Ahmad in his video message, the UK cannot ignore its own role in the once India-run separatist project.

The UK allowed the LTTE absolute freedom of movement in its territory where millions of Sterling Pounds were raised to procure weapons. The LTTE had its so-called International Secretariat in London at the time it assassinated former Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi in May 1991, over a year after New Delhi ended its military mission in Sri Lanka. One-time British High Commission employee Anton Stanislaus Balasingham, in spite of being the theoretician of a murderous organisation, enjoyed the status as a British citizen until his demise in Dec 2006. The UK had no issue with Balasingham’s British citizenship even after the assassination of the then Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar in August 2005. The terrorist was allowed to operate freely. The late Balasingham’s wife, Adele, in spite of having promoted the LTTE’s despicable cause and even privy to the assassination of Gandhi by a female suicide bomber still lives there. When Lord Ahmad talked of the past, obviously he was only referring to alleged atrocities committed by the Sri Lankan military.

UK pursuing hostile strategy

The recent BBC reportage on Sri Lanka underscores continuing British hostility towards Sri Lanka. In spite of China being one of the major trading partners of the British, the latter in line with overall US-fashioned policy takes a hostile view of Sri Lanka’s relationship with China. The UK spearheaded efforts to set up a special investigation targeting Sri Lanka following the March 2021 Geneva session. Lord Ahmad’s recent visit and his promise to come back here again very soon wouldn’t change a thing. The British would continue to undermine Sri Lanka essentially for two reasons (i) Sri Lanka-China relationship and influential Tamil Diaspora relationship with all British political parties.

Regardless of Sri Lanka’s Opposition, Western powers ensured the setting up of high profile special investigation (Sept 2021 to Sept 2022) against the country to complete the encirclement of Sri Lanka at the UNHRC. The investigation is now underway. Did Sri Lanka at least raise the issue during Lord Ahmad’s recently concluded visit here? Sri Lanka shouldn’t expect fair play under any circumstances. The special investigation, too, will justify previous unsubstantiated accusations. Hope, the current dispensation, particularly the Foreign Ministry hadn’t conveniently forgotten how the yahapalana government co-sponsored a resolution against the war-winning armed forces on the basis of accusations that weren’t examined in a court of law. What really intrigued the public is the UN declaration that the identity of those who made accusations would be covered by confidentiality clauses for a 20-year period. As the declaration has been made in March 2011, Sri Lanka wouldn’t have an opportunity to know its accusers or at least whether they existed till 2031. Even then they have left a provision to extend that confidential clause for a further period. Where is the rule of law in all that, though always mouthed by the West of its virtues like a parrot?

Let me get back to the investigation led by a Senior Level Advisor in terms of the UNHRC dictate. Declaring that the UNHRC expected the Senior Legal Advisor to have (verbatim) experience in international criminal justice and/or criminal investigations and prosecutions to coordinate the team and oversee an information and evidence collection strategy; the development of a central repository to consolidate, preserve and analyse information and evidence; coordinate the processes of reviewing and sharing of information with national authorities for universal jurisdiction and extraterritorial jurisdiction cases and other accountability purposes in line with relevant United Nations guidelines; develop accountability strategies and engage with accountability mechanisms including specialised investigators, prosecutors, judges, and other legal practitioners both for information sharing purposes, to promote accountability and advise on the development of accountability strategies; and liaise with other parts of OHCHR, other independent mechanisms and the UN system to ensure a coordinated approach”

It is not too difficult to understand where we are heading. It would be the responsibility of the current dispensation to set the record straight in Geneva and New York without further delay. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) participated in an abortive political project to elect war-winning Army Commander the then Gen. Sarath Fonseka as the President at the 2010 presidential poll should be officially made known in Geneva and New York. The fact that Fonseka comfortably won electoral districts with Tamil speaking majority, too, should be part of Sri Lanka’s defence. Shouldn’t Sri Lanka ask those shedding crocodile tears for war victims why the Tamil speaking people, including those living in the Vanni who suffered dearly voted for the man whose Army was accused of killing over 40,000 Tamils?



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Midweek Review

July 09: An inexcusable overall security failure and exceptional contingency plan

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A massive throng of people inside the President's House after mobs forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee on 09 July, 2022

Ulugetenne

The Sri Lanka Navy, on 04 June, commissioned SLNS Samudravijaya, formerly United States Coast Guard Cutter Decisive. It is the fourth mothballed US Coast Guard cutter transferred to the SLN through the US Excess Defence Articles Programme. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake attended the ceremony at the Colombo Port. The US Embassy in Colombo, in a statement issued on the same day, quoted Defence Attaché Lieutenant Colonel Matthew House as having said: “Few partners have demonstrated the commitment to maintaining and operating these vessels as successfully as the Sri Lanka Navy. The outstanding condition and operational performance of SLNS Samudura, SLNS Gajabahu, and SLNS Vijayabahu are a testament to the professionalism and technical expertise of Sri Lankan sailors. Their stewardship of these vessels helped build the confidence that made this fourth transfer possible.” The first of the four vessels SLNS Samudura was commissioned on 19 February, 2005, during Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s tenure as the President. Milinda Moragoda, Economic Reforms and Science and Technology Minister of the previous UNP-led UNF government, played a significant role in acquiring that vessel. SLNS Samudura boosted SLN and participated in numerous operations, including the high profile hunt for LTTE floating warehouses, during the Eelam War IV. But, the US refrained from transferring any more big ships during the war though on the then Navy Commander Vice Admiral Wsantha Karannagoda’s request to provide intelligence and Washington obliging, made the successful hunt for LTTE floating arsenals in the last stages of the war possible. The transfer of the second vessel took place 19 years after the end of the war. Ex USCG Sherman was commissioned 06 June, 2019, as SLNS Gajabahu (P626). The third vessel was transferred to the Sri Lanka Navy on October 26, 2021, as the country was heading towards an unprecedented economic crisis. That vessel was commissioned as SLNS Vijayabahu at the Colombo Port with the participation of President Ranil Wickramasinghe and US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie Chung on November 20, 2022. Ironically SLNS Gajabahu, one of the ex-US vessels prominently figured in the contingency plan to save President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, but whose downfall was engineered by the US.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The moment President Gotabaya Rajapaksa decided to take up residence at the President’s House (Janadhipathi Mandiraya), Fort, in the first week of April, 2022, the Navy had no option but to prepare a thorough contingency plan, in case the regime change project posed a realistic threat to the life of the President.

The President, in consultation with senior military officers, made his move within 48 hours after violence erupted outside his private residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirihana, on the night of 31 March, 2022. That decision seemed realistic and sensible at that time.

But, in the wake of the disastrous overall armed forces response to the coordinated violence unleashed by the regime change project on 09 May, 2022, in the aftermath of the Temple Trees ordered attack on Galle Face protesters, the top brass must have recognised the urgent need for total overhauling of security strategy. But, unfortunately, that hadn’t been the case. With violent crowds overwhelming the armed forces, deployed to block them, rapidly approaching the President’s House, those who had been at the makeshift Operations Room there were stunned.

In hindsight, the President’s decision to remain at the President’s House, regardless of the near failure on the part of the armed forces to repulse the raid on Temple Trees, on 09 May, seemed unwise. The rescue operation could have gone wrong and the war-winning President Mahinda Rajapaksa could have ended up in the hands of an angry mob.

Perhaps, the conspirators envisaged the President’s move, from Pangiriwatte to the President’s House, situated walking distance away from the Galle Face protest site, where they could draw additional strength.

The failure on the part of the government to take tangible measures, in the wake of the President’s House becoming the sole target on that fateful day, is a contentious issue that needs to be properly investigated. Don’t forget that the court case filed over the 09 May attacks on the residences and properties belonging to SLPP politicians, and some supporters ,was later withdrawn. The Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government never investigated the 09 May incidents.

Exactly two months after the mobs almost succeeded in breaking through defences at Temple Trees, on the night of 09 May/10, where Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was residing, they mounted the assault on the President’s House.

In the wake of the 09 May mayhem, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa named Lt. Gen. Vikum Liyanage as the Commander of the Army. He succeeded General Shavendra Silva who served as the CDS but was out of the country when all-out mayhem was unleashed by the Aragalaya mobs on 09 July, 2022, to oust the sitting government.

In spite of a direct and growing threat to the President’s House, on 09 July, 2022, the President felt confident in meeting the challenge. The President issued a directive to the Secretary, Ministry of Defence, General (retd.) Kamal Gunaratne, to shift the Operations Room from the Defence Force Headquarters, at Akuregoda, to the President’s House. Having shifted the Operations Room on 08 July, 2022, to the President’s House, as directed by the President, the top brass prepared to face the challenge.

Maj. General K.B. Egodawela, who served as an Additional Secretary (Administration) to the President, from the day the President moved to the President’s House, till he vacated on 09 July, 2022, in his memoirs ‘Aragalaya: Adarayen Prachandathwayata’ (From Love to Violence) revealed that though the top brass opposed the shifting of the Operations Room they carried out the directive. While the President felt that the top brass could collectively work at the President’s House to bring the situation under control, Gen Gunaratne proposed that the President should move to Akuregoda Defence Forces Headquarters, according to Egodawela. In fact, Gunaratne, who had been with Gotabaya Rajapaksa from the very beginning of the sinister campaign, strongly opposed the President’s decision to remain there.

Obviously, the President’s House pathetically failed to ascertain the scale of the protest and the rapidity with which protesters overwhelmed troops deployed outside the President’s House stunned the top brass. Had they swiftly reached consensus on Gen. Gunaratne’s suggestion, perhaps the 09 July regime change operation could have been thwarted. The armed forces could have resorted to tougher measures to prevent a march on Akuregoda Defence Forces Headquarters had the President agreed to move there.

Within two hours after the protest, targeting the President’s House began, video footage provided by drones indicated that troops couldn’t hold the rampaging mobs any longer. According to Egodawela, the top brass had been prepared to remove the President, even without his consent, by landing a helicopter in the Colombo harbor or by ship. Finally, they resorted to the second option. As the President and First Lady Ayoma got into a vehicle and took the rear exit into the adjoining former Navy Headquarters, mobs entered the President’s House. Another vehicle carrying several other persons followed.

The then Navy Commander Vice Admiral Nishantha Ulugetenne who had been with the President at the President’s House got into the vehicle carrying the President. Had they stayed at the President’s House for 10 more minutes, the consequences could have been devastating. https://island.lk/gotabayas-escape-from-aragalaya-mob-in-rti-spotlight/

Egodawela, who had been with the President from the very beginning of the presidential term, alleged that the raiders planned to kill the President and several others and display their bodies. The author quoted an unidentified intelligence officer as having told him that the raiders wanted to display the bodies the way LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran’s body was shown.

Perhaps shifting the Operations Room from Akuregoda Defence Force Headquarters to the President’s House had been a risky move that, in a way, facilitated the regime change operation. The rationale in bringing those who had been tasked with countering the impending threat to one place (President’s House) to be with the target (Gotabaya Rajapaksa) seems unbelievably a dicey move. The President had been influenced by what he described as inordinate and unforgivable delay on the part of the Akuregoda Operations Room to carry out timely evacuation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on the night of 09 May from Temple Trees. Most probably, the President wanted to oversee the 09 July counter operation personally. But, in hindsight, the decision to shift the Operations Room from Akuregoda to the President’s House obviously hadn’t been a clever move.

SLN preparations

When mobs threatened to overwhelm the President’s security at Pangiriwattta, on 31 March, additional police and STF contingents were brought in. They were followed by the Navy and Air Force. The Army arrived at the scene, subsequently.

As pointed out by the President himself, the situation at Temple Trees, on 09 May, had been far worse and the combined police and armed forces response revealed that they hadn’t taken precautionary/counter measures, even after the Pangiriwatta fiasco.

At the time of the incidents, the overall Temple Trees security deployment included about 60 elite Special Boat Squadron (SBS) personnel deployed within the premises and were supplemented by seven SLN platoons. The Army also moved in to strengthen Temple Trees defences but the mobs pressed on till troops fired blank ammunition.

The top brass, directing counter measures from Akuregoda Defence Force Headquarters, had to act swiftly and decisively to evacuate those at the Temple Trees or face the consequences. As there hadn’t been any other alternative place of living proposed, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, wife Shiranthi and their eldest son Namal were escorted to nearby former Air Force Headquarters and from there flown to the Trincomalee Navy base. VA Ulugetenne, over the phone, issued instructions to the relevant officer in Trincomalee to make arrangements as two helicopters carrying the group took off from the helipad on the top of the former Air Force Headquarters. The helicopters departed around 04 in the morning.

They had stayed at Trincomalee Navy House for about a week and, as requested by the Navy, paid for their stay because by then Mahinda Rajapaksa had resigned. Perhaps, they could have taken refuge at the Panagoda Army cantonment or at Saliyapura, home to the Gajaba Regiment, but, at the end, sought the protection at the Trincomalee Navy base.

Ironically, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, too, had to take refuge at the Trincomalee Navy base, exactly two months later. Ever since the President moved into the President’s House, Fort, the Navy had been on their toes to meet any eventuality. The daunting task of arranging evacuation by sea fell on the shoulders of VA Ulugetenne, who, meticulously, planned the operation with his staff.

Having informed the President of the contingency plans, VA Ulugetenne stationed two Advanced Offshore Patrol Vessels (AOPVs), namely SLNS Sindurala and SLNS Gajabahu and four Fast Attack Craft (FACs), at the Colombo Port. It would be pertinent to mention that SLNS Sindurala, built at the Goa shipyard, in terms of an agreement signed at the tail end of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, was adjudged the best vessel in the SLN fleet in 2022.

Additional SBS personnel and snipers, too, had been brought in to Colombo though none of them knew exactly what their task would be. The OPV and FAC crews most probably felt that they were awaiting orders for a major anti-drug operation in the high seas.

As the decision was made to evacuate the President and the First Lady, the Chief alerted the vessels and quickly deployed tugboats to pull SLNS Sindurala and, shortly thereafter, SLNS Gajabahu, formerly of the US Coast Guard, carrying the President and the First Lady. By the time the two AOPVs moved in different directions, on the instructions of VA Ulugetenne, the hand phones of SLNS Gajabahu crew were collected to prevent them from revealing what was happening. Along with the AOPVs, two pairs of FACs had moved out to sea. (https://island.lk/ranil-reveals-bid-to-get-rid-of-him-while-gr-was-fleeing-to-trinco-on-board-slns-gajabahu/)

Nearly 12-hour journey to Trinco

The SLNS Gajabahu, formerly of the US Coast Guard, had a crew consisting of over 100 officers and men. Someone, most probably a port employee, posted a short clip of some unidentified persons taking large travelling bags into the ship but the President, First Lady and VA Ulugetenne going in were never captured on a camera.

As the vessel began its journey towards Trincomalee, it remained approximately 12 nautical miles from land and the President received many calls, some of which weren’t answered. VA Ulugetenne, too, received quite a number of calls. Those familiar with the developments at that time said that some felt that SLNS Gajabahu should move out of Sri Lankan waters. There had been suggestions that the destination should be the Maldives, India or Singapore. Regardless of such suggestions, SLNS Gajabahu proceeded towards Trincomalee where the Navy made necessary arrangements to host them.

Captain Marlon Perera, who still serves the Navy, had been the Commanding Officer of the vessel. Perera now holds the Commodore rank.

During the journey precautions were taken to ensure the safety and security of the President and the First Lady. Although the crew hadn’t been aware that they would be entrusted with such a sensitive task at a time the country was in crossroads against the backdrop of an economic collapse and sovereign default, there were fears of the crew being affected by propaganda in support of regime change operation.

The attempt made by sailor Wijemuni Vijitha Rohana de Silva to cause harm to Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, way back in July, 1987, underscored the necessity to take precautions during the Colombo-Trincomalee journey as the possibility of anti-Gotabaya campaign having an impact on at least some members of the ship crew couldn’t be ruled out.

On July 30, 1987, during a guard of honor in Colombo, the 21-year-old naval rating struck Gandhi on the shoulder and back with the butt of his rifle. Gandhi narrowly avoided the full impact of the blow by evasive ducking.

On the invitation of VA Ulugetenne, Gotabaya Rajapaksa attended all the formalities in respect of a visit undertaken by the President to the Trincomalee Navy base. The President participated in those formalities knowing that he couldn’t attend the commissioning parade that was scheduled to be held on 15 July, 2022. The Navy was not in a position to put off the commissioning parade hence the decision to invite Defence Secretary Gunaratne as the Chief Guest.

Ulugetenne retired from active naval service on 18 December, 2022, following a distinguished career, spanning over 37 years. He received the appointment as the 24th Commander of the Navy in July, 2020, just a couple of months after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s election as the President.

Wickremesinghe, in his capacity as Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s successor, appointed Ulugetenne as Sri Lanka’s Ambassador to Cuba. The appointment was made in late 2023 and the retired Navy Chief presented his credentials to Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on 13 February, 2024 (https://island.lk/from-fonseka-convictions-to-arrest-of-ulugetenne/)

However, within weeks after the last presidential election held in late November, 2024, the NPP government recalled over a dozen top envoys appointed by the previous administration. Admiral Ulugetenne was among them. The government deprived a decorated officer, who had served the country for nearly four decades, from completing his term in Havana. Within months after his return, he became the target of a murder investigation.

Then out of the blue the retired Navy Chief became the focus of a murder investigation, that, too, post-war. The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) arrested him on 28 July, 2025, over the disappearance of a person reported in July, 2020.

Kurunegala High Court Judge Tikiri Jayatilleke, on 14 October, 2025, granted him bail. Jayatilleke declared that the CID acted in an illegal manner in respect of the former Navy Commander. His counsel Kalinga Indatissa, PC, alleged in court that his client had been apprehended only on the basis of an ex-LTTE cadre’s allegation in the absence of any evidence

The next hearing is scheduled for 08 July, 2026. Ulugetenne was held at the Kegalle Prison for four days and then transferred to the Dumbara (Pallekale) Prison. Altogether, he was in prison for 80 days, like a common criminal, despite him being a former Navy Commander with an unblemished career record.

Wartime Chief of Naval Intelligence, Rear Admiral (retd) Sarath Mohotti, who had been also arrested in connection with the same investigation, was also granted bail, a few weeks later.

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Midweek Review

India should convene a regional El Niño preparedness dialogue in Delhi

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El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker monsoons in South Asia, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased risks of droughts and floods.

The coming months could bring South Asia and the wider Indian Ocean region a dangerous mix of climate shocks, economic strain, and geopolitical instability. At the centre of this looming challenge is the anticipated El Niño event, which is likely to disrupt monsoon patterns, intensify weather extremes, and place additional pressure on already fragile food, water, and energy systems.

But El Niño will not arrive in isolation. It will intersect with continuing global disruptions—from the war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East—each of which continues to reverberate through energy markets, food supply chains, and shipping routes. The combined effect is likely to be cumulative, not linear.

This is, therefore, a moment that calls for anticipatory regional coordination rather than fragmented national responses.

A record of regional first response

There is already a clear precedent for such coordination in the region.During the COVID-19 pandemic, India emerged as a key first responder, supplying vaccines, medicines, and logistical support across the neighbourhood under its “Neighbourhood First” policy. This helped establish a practical framework for regional cooperation in times of systemic stress.

More recently, India played a similar role during the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, providing critical financial assistance, fuel, and essential supplies at a moment of acute vulnerability. India has also been among the first responders during major climate-related disasters, including cyclone events such as Cyclone Ditwa, delivering rapid humanitarian assistance.

These are not isolated gestures. They reflect an emerging pattern in which India increasingly functions as a stabilising force in the wider region.

This trajectory is reflected in India’s evolving regional frameworks—from Neighbourhood First, to SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), and now the broader MAHASAGAR vision, which signals an expanded maritime and regional engagement architecture.

Why El Niño is different this time

El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker monsoons in South Asia, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased risks of droughts and floods. In a region where agriculture remains highly climate-sensitive, even modest deviations can translate into inflation, rural distress, and fiscal pressure.

This year, however, the risks are compounded by global fragilities:

* Persistent food and fertilizer price volatility

* Elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions

* Supply chain disruptions in key commodities

* High debt burdens in several neighbouring economies

Together, these factors reduce the resilience of national systems and increase the risk of cascading shocks across borders.It is also important to recognise that social instability in some fragile countries in the region should be kept in mind, as climate shocks and economic pressures can quickly reinforce each other and create wider humanitarian and political consequences.

The case for a Delhi-based regional initiative

Against this backdrop, there is a strong case for India to convene a regional El Niño preparedness dialogue in Delhi, bringing together neighbouring countries, key development partners, and multilateral institutions.

This should not be limited to South Asia alone. The impacts of El Niño extend across the wider Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Participation could include:

* Neighbouring states in South and Southeast Asia

* The United Nations system

* The World Bank and Asian Development Bank

* Key bilateral partners such as Japan and others active in regional resilience

Given its geographic position, institutional capacity, and experience as a first responder, it is both natural and appropriate for India to chair such an initiative.

What the initiative should focus on

The objective should be practical coordination rather than declaratory statements. Three areas stand out:

1. Shared forecasting and early warning systems

Strengthening real-time exchange of climate data, monsoon projections, and sectoral risk mapping, particularly for agriculture, water, and fisheries.

2. Contingency planning for essential supplies

Coordinating regional approaches to food reserves, fertilizer availability, and energy supply buffers during climatic disruptions.

3. Disaster response and financing coordination

Improving interoperability among disaster management systems, and exploring rapid-response financing through multilateral development banks for climate-related shocks.

From Neighbourhood First to MAHASAGAR

India’s regional doctrine has steadily evolved—from Neighbourhood First to SAGAR, and now MAHASAGAR—reflecting a broader conception of responsibility in the Indian Ocean region.Each stage has expanded the scope of engagement: from immediate neighbourhood assistance, to maritime cooperation and growth, to a wider vision of regional interconnectedness.

A structured El Niño preparedness initiative would be a natural continuation of this trajectory, embedding climate resilience into the region’s evolving strategic architecture.

Climate as regional security

The distinction between climate events and security outcomes is increasingly blurred. A failed monsoon in one country can trigger food inflation in another; a cyclone can disrupt trade routes; droughts can accelerate migration pressures and fiscal instability.

El Niño should therefore be seen not only as a meteorological phenomenon but as a systemic stress test for regional resilience.

India is already widely seen in the region as a first responder in times of crisis. The experiences of COVID-19, the Sri Lankan economic emergency, and climate-related disasters have reinforced this role in practical terms.

The next step is to move from reactive response to anticipatory coordination.

A Delhi-based regional El Niño preparedness meeting—anchored by India and supported by multilateral institutions and key bilateral partners—would be a timely and pragmatic initiative. In an era of compounding global risks, regional cooperation is no longer optional; it is essential.

(Milinda Moragoda is the Founder of the Pathfinder Foundation. Can be contacted via email@milinda.org, courtesy wionews.com.

by Milinda Moragoda

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Midweek Review

Beyond Harsha’s IMF “Revelations”

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Harsha

“A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.” — H.L. Mencken

Summary

During a recent television appearance (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0QWfenCFlk) , opposition MP and Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chair Dr. Harsha de Silva dramatically brandished the latest IMF Letter of Intent (LoI, 13 May 2026), pointing to the signatures of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe as proof of a “secret” alignment with austerity and cost-reflective utility pricing. However, for serious students of Sri Lankan macroeconomics, this “revelation” contained no new information. The legal, structural, and institutional mandate for cost-reflective pricing was codified long before the current administration took office—embedded in the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of 2023, the 2023 IMF Governance Diagnostic, and the Economic Transformation Act of 2024. This article argues that veteran economists in parliament must move beyond theatrical “gotcha” moments designed for political popularity and instead fulfill their true duty: educating the public on the non-negotiable continuity of structural adjustment programmess.

Anatomy of a Non-Revelation

The recent spectacle of Dr. Harsha de Silva presenting the IMF Letter of Intent on live television was framed as a grand exposure of the current administration’s hidden fiscal policy. With theatrical emphasis, Dr. de Silva pointed to the signatures of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and the Central Bank Governor, declaring that the government had bound the public to the bitter pill of cost-reflective electricity and fuel pricing.

Yet, to anyone who understands the mechanics of central banking and sovereign debt restructuring, this performance revealed nothing that was not already part of (i) the public, (ii) legal, and (iii) institutional reality. A Letter of Intent is a standard operational requirement of the IMF review process; it is not a newly minted policy conceived in secret. By treating a routine administrative continuity as a shocking disclosure, Dr. de Silva engaged in political showmanship rather than economic education.

Legacy of Cost-Reflective Pricing

The narrative that cost-reflective utility pricing is a novel concession by the AKD administration is factually incorrect. The institutional architecture to eliminate non-commercial losses within the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) was firmly established under the previous administration of Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The structural benchmarks were explicitly laid out in (i) the March 2023 IMF EFF Agreement and (ii) re-emphasized in the September 2023 IMF Governance Diagnostic Report. This framework was further consolidated by the legislature through (i) the Economic Transformation Act of 2024 and (ii) the new Sri Lanka Electricity Act. When the current administration assumed office, the fiscal tracks had already been laid. President AKD is merely operating the machinery of state within the legal and economic boundaries inherited from his predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe to prevent a secondary default.

The Myth of the Solitary Saviour

There is a troubling tendency among Sri Lanka’s technocratic elite to engage in a saviour complex—positioning themselves on television screens as the singular authorities capable of managing public finance or navigating international waters. Dr. de Silva’s presentation was less about unveiling unknown data and more about projecting an image of unrivaled smartness in public finance.

When veteran economists resort to these manoeuvers, they diminish their own professional standing. Sri Lanka’s economic recovery does not hinge on the brilliant insights of a single individual or party; it depends on (i) institutional discipline, (ii) data-driven planning, and (iii) structural continuity. Pretending that routine compliance documents are exclusive intelligence updates serves only to feed personal political popularity at the expense of public intellectual growth.

Real Politics behind the Screen

Why, then, did Dr. de Silva choose to make a mountain out of an administrative molehill? The answer lies in pure political strategy. The National People’s Power (NPP) platform ascended to governance on strong anti-austerity rhetoric, promising relief from the heavy tax and tariff burdens imposed by the previous regime.

By holding up the signed LoI, Dr. de Silva sought a political checkmate. His objective was to expose the contradiction between the NPP’s populist election promises and its executive actions. While highlighting this policy convergence is fair game in partisan politics, framing it as a “new discovery” misleads the electorate into believing that the IMF programme is an optional, arbitrarily signed document rather than a legally binding national framework that leaves any sitting President with zero alternative manoeuvers.

True Mandate of Parliament’s Financial Oversight

During the broadcast, the fundamental boundary of the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) was brought into question. Dr. de Silva correctly noted that COPF does not formulate state policy—that remains the strict prerogative of the Executive and its chosen advisors. COPF’s true mandate is oversight: ensuring transparency, accountability, and the efficient monitoring of state revenues and expenditures.

If the head of our public finance oversight body wishes to protect the national interest, that energy should be (ii) directed toward evaluating the actual performance scorecards of state institutions, (ii) tracking structural benchmarks, and (iii) monitoring the real-time efficiency of economic programs. Using the platform of technical oversight to score quick points on a talk show blurs the vital line between a state auditor and a political campaigner.

Conclusion: The Need for Institutional Candour

Sri Lanka has paid a catastrophic price for populist rhetoric and the manipulation of economic facts for electoral gain. What the public requires from veteran economists and seasoned politicians today is not more political theater but radical candor.

The truth is simple: Sri Lanka is locked into a long-term, institutional structural adjustment programme that transcends whoever sits in the presidential secretariat. President AKD is executing pre-existing state commitments because the alternative is immediate economic isolation. Rather than trying to convince the public that they alone possess the secret key to salvation, opposition technocrats owe it to the nation to elevate the discourse. It is time to replace television showmanship with (i) honest, (ii) evidence-based planning, (iii) acknowledging that while politicians change, the arithmetic of national survival remains exactly the same.

(The writer, among many, served as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia from 2006 to 2012 and was a Senior Consultant with the UNDP for 20 years. He was a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993). He can be reached via asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com)

By Prof. Asoka S. Seneviratne

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