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Foreign Exchange Crisis

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By Dr.C.S. Weeraratna

csweera@sltnet.lk

One of the main strategies to resolve the current Foreign Exchange crisis would be to increase export earnings and reduce expenditure on imports. Most of the activities involved are short-term while the others are medium/long term.

Increase export earnings

Increasing exports is of paramount importance to improve the present FE crisis. A major source of FE is the plantation sector. Around 800,000 ha are cultivated with crops such as tea, rubber, coconut, etc., and this sector has in the last few years earned nearly Rs. 360 billion annually. However, as indicated in table 1, production of these major export crops have not shown any substantial increase during the last five years and the contribution from this sector has remained at nearly 20% of the export income. Hence, strategies need to be implemented to increase production and hence FE earnings from this sector. There are many state sector organisations to implement such strategies.

As shown in Table 1 tea production has been fluctuating around 300 million kg per year during the last five years in spite of several institutions assigned to the tea sector. The average tea yields are considerably lower than the potential yields. In the smallholder tea sector the average yield is around 1800 kg/ha and in the estate sector it is about 1200 kg/ha. In 2020, tea earned Rs. 230 billion in FE. Better management practices in the short term would increase the quantity and quality of the tea produced making it possible to increase FE earnings substantially from the current Rs. 230 billion.

Rubber is another important export crop. In 2017, it earned nearly Rs. 6 billion in foreign exchange but has decreased during the following three years. Based on Central Bank annual reports, the total Rubber production in 2010 was 152.9 million Kg and by 2019, it has plummeted to 74.8 million kg. The corresponding average yields are 1561 kg/ha and 665 kg/ ha respectively. These figures indicate that the Sri Lankan rubber sector is ailing in spite of several institutions assigned to promote rubber production in the country. With the current higher rubber prices it would be possible to earn more FE by increasing rubber production by better management practices which would produce results in the short term. During the last few years the rubber sector has been affected by many factors one of which is ineffective management.

Coconut production too has declined during the last five years as shown in Table 1. The total extent under coconut in Sri Lanka is around 400,000 ha and about 325,000 ha are small holdings. Annual production of coconut has been fluctuating around 3,000 million nuts, (app. 6000 nuts/ha) As the state of the existing coconut plantations need to be looked into. If the production of the existing coconut lands is increased by 1000 nuts/ha/year by better management, and applying organic and inorganic fertilisers the total production can be increased by a substantial number within a year which will increase the export income from coconut.

This appalling situation in the plantation sector can be attributed to many factors. If the productivity of this sector is raised by implementing better management practices it would be possible to increase foreign exchange earnings from this sector. Most of these practices would produce results in the short term .

A large number of crops other than tea, rubber and coconut cultivated in Sri Lanka have a high potential as export crops. There are 24 agro ecological zones, each characterised by specific climate and soils. This makes it possible to cultivate different types of crops such as spice crops, tuberous crops, horticultural (fruit crops) and floricultural crops, medicinal herbs, etc.

Sri Lanka is famous for spices. The most sought-after spice crops are cinnamon, pepper, cloves, cardamoms, nutmeg, mace and vanilla which grow in abundance mainly in the wet and intermediate zone. In 2020, county earned nearly Rs. 60 billion by exporting spice crops.

Cinnamon is the most important spice commodity among the spice sector. In 2019, it earned around Rs. 32 billion in FE. The production of cinnamon has been fluctuating around 20,000 t per year during the last few years. Sri Lanka received its first ever Geographical Indication (GI) certification when the European Union (EU) Commission on 02 February,2022 granted GI status to Ceylon Cinnamon and this would make a higher demand for Sri Lanka cinnamon.

Pepper is the second important commodity among spices. It is grown in the wet and intermediate zones mostly as a mixed crop. The Sri Lankan pepper has higher piperine content which gives it a superior quality and pungency. Annual production of pepper too has remained stagnant at around 20,000 kg.

Other spices such as cloves, cardamom, nutmeg and mace have the potential to earn a substantial amount of FE. With the increase of international demand for natural products, and the island’s focus on enhancing and evolving its value added range, spices and the essential oils extracted from these crops will continue to earn more FE.

Dehydrated food is another agricultural product which has a potential to earn much -needed FE. During some months there is a glut of fruits and exporting dehydrated/canned fruits would bring in an appreciable amount of FE.

In any programme/plan to increase foreign exchange earnings from the agricultural sector, agro-industries has to be given much emphasis . A large number of crops cultivated in Sri Lanka have considerable potential in various agro-industries. However, only rubber, coconut and a few fruit crops are used in industries. Crops such as cassava, horticultural and floricultural crops, medicinal herbs, cane, bamboo, sunflower, castor, ayurvedic herbs, etc. have a considerable industrial/export potential but are not cultivated to any appreciable extent. The development of agro-industries will also increase export income and will have a tremendous impact on the economy of the country and also provide employment opportunities among rural people. Private sector can be involved in such projects for which appropriate technical assistance need to be given by the relevant public organizations.

Decrease expenditure on imports

While implementing strategies to increase our FE income by promoting exports, action needs to be taken to decrease our expenditure on imports. During the period 2017-2020 annual expenditure on importing food has been around Rs. 320 billion. The current expenditure on food imports is likely to be even more due to the depreciation of SL rupee, and shortage of rice and other food crops the result of banning import of agrochemicals. .

One of the problem the country is facing is the fuel crisis, which is likely to have extremely undesirable repercussions. A large sum of money is spent on importing petroleum to Sri Lanka, In 2020, we imported fuel worth Rs. 540 billion . If we are going to consume petroleum products at the current rate, at least an additional Rs. 50 billion will have to be spent in 2022. Hence, it is essential that the consumption of petrol and diesel be reduced. In many other countries such as China, Thailand, Singapore, action has already been taken to reduce fuel/ power consumption and cut down wastes. If we reduce our power consumption by 10%, it will result in a saving of Rs 60 billion in foreign exchange.

Studies conducted in many countries have found that ethanol is an alternative to petrol. Many countries are either producing or using ethanol in large quantities or are providing incentives to expand ethanol production and use. Prompted by the increase in oil prices in the 1970s, Brazil introduced a programme to produce ethanol for use in automobiles to reduce oil imports. Brazilian ethanol is made mainly from sugar cane. Among the countries using ethanol as a bio fuel are Australia, France, India, Sweden, USA, South Africa, etc. Use of ethanol tends to reduce environment pollution caused by compounds such as tetraethyl lead found in petrol. Ethanol can be made from high starch containing crops such as manioc and maize, or high sugar containing crops such as sugarcane. These crops are cultivated in Sri Lanka. Around 10 million litres of alcohol are produced annually at Pelwatta and Sevanagala sugar factories. These can be used to blend petrol and used at least in three wheelers so that those who use them need not pay higher fares. A few years ago Prof. Thissa Vitharana, who was the then minister of Science and Technology, appointed a committee to look into the possibility of using substitutes for fuel. The committee recommended the use of ethyl alcohol and Jatropha oil as bio-fuels. No follow-up action was taken by the subsequent governments to promote these substitutes as bio-fuels. Oil from Jatropha (Weta Erandu) a crop that can be grown widely in the Dry Zone of Sri lanka can be used as a bio fuel.

Dendro-power can be generated using fast growing nitrogen fixing tress such as glyricidia and leuceana. These crops not only can be used to generate electricity but also are a good source of animal feed and fertilisers. It may be more beneficial to grow these crops in eroded tea lands where the yields are relatively low. Soil erosion in such tea lands also can be reduced by growing these crops. The Bio Energy Association of Sri Lanka has been instrumental in promoting cultivation of glyricidia.

Sri Lanka, a country begging for dollar loans to import medicine, fuel, etc., which are critically important, needs to have a flexible policy on exports and imports. As indicated above, there are 24 agro ecological zones, each characterised by specific climate and soils. This makes it possible to cultivate different types of crops. Most of the food imported can be locally produced thereby reducing expenditure on food imports. A closer look at the imports reveals that around Rs. 50 billion (nearly 16% of food imports) in FE is spent on importing sugar, most of which can be locally produced. The total annual requirement of sugar in the country is around 620,000 t but, only about 50,000 t are produced locally.

Sugarcane has a considerable potential to reduce the expenditure on food imports. Sugar production in the country has not increased by any appreciable amounts during the present decade. The Kanthale sugar factory remains closed while a plan to cultivate sugarcane in Bibile remains shelved. Jaggery made from kitul, and sugarcane are good substitutes of sugar manufactured from sugarcane.

A substantial amount of foreign exchange is spent on importing milk. In 2020, Rs. 60 billion in FE was spent to import milk and dairy products. We have around 1 million cattle consisting of mostly indigenous cattle. Their productivity is low (1-3 litres/day) mainly due to the poor nature of the breeds and inadequate low quality feed supply. The dairy industry has a potential to contribute considerably to solving the Sri Lanka’s FE crisis. Milk production can be increased by increasing availability of cattle food, and thereby an appreciable amount of foreign exchange spent on milk imports can be reduced. Milk production also plays an important role in alleviating nutritional poverty and it is a source of extensive employment opportunities. If milk production can be increased, an appreciable amount of foreign exchange spent on milk imports can be reduced and improve the nutrition status of the people.

Expenditure on subsidiary food crops such as chilies, green gram, ground nut, potato, etc., is few billions of rupees. The extent under these crops and their average per hectare yields have not increased by any appreciable amount during the last decade. A few years ago, a former Minister of Agricultural Development Chamal Rajapaksa appointed an Advisory Panel to make proposals to develop the agricultural sector so that there was a quantitative and qualitative increase in crop production at a lower cost with no damage to the environment. The recommendations of the panel were mainly on development and use of better varieties of seeds and planting material, effective control of weeds, insect pests and diseases, better water management, and water conservation, proper use of inorganic and organic fertilizers, controlling soil degradation and appropriate land use, promoting agro –industries, and carrying out relevant agricultural research and use of their findings. During the last few years numerous programmes such as “AMA’, ” Waga Sangramaya” and “Govi Sevana ” were implemented. All these activities/programmes, appear to have not made any appreciable positive impact on the agricultural sector of the country indicated by increasing expenditure on food.

In addition to sugar, milk, and rice, we spend a colossal sum on importing food items which can be locally produced. Among these are lentils (Rs. 20 billion) onion( Rs 16 billion), maize (Rs. 10 billion) fruits and vegetables and spices mainly chillies. Even herbs such as katuwelbatu and thippili which can be produced locally and used for ayurvedic drugs are imported at a cost of nearly USD 6 million every year. Most of these crops can be cultivated in the dry zone where only about 2 million acres are in productive use out of the 4.5 million ha. Non-availability of adequate rainfall during the yala season is one of the limiting factors of crop production in the dry zone. However, better water management practices and rainwater harvesting would reduce this limitation.

Although hundreds of research projects related to plantation and food crops are carried out by the faculties of agriculture, the Department of Agriculture, etc., there appears to be very little liaison/interaction among the relevant institutions, to utilise the research findings so that we can increase productivity in the agriculture sector and save an appreciable amount of FE.



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People’s mandate and judicial legitimacy

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BASL public forum held last Saturday

Sri Lanka is witnessing the dismantling of the culture of impunity that dominated public life for decades. This is happening through the courts, police investigations and legal process. It is not an easy task and requires strong leadership as it is generating strong resistance. The ongoing revelations about the nexus between politicians, including those at the highest levels, and criminal networks show that the government’s electoral mandate with regard to corruption and crime is now being translated into action through the legal system. The vote of the people at the last national elections was for a corruption free country and an end to the climate of impunity that had prevailed for decades. They voted for a system change that would replace impunity with accountability under the rule of law. They expected those who had looted the country and brought it to the point of bankruptcy to be held accountable through the due process of law.

The cases that are being investigated by the police, in tandem with the Attorney General’s Department, and adjudicated by the judiciary are based on hard evidence. Much of the evidence that is now receiving publicity had been available several years ago and had even entered the legal process. In the past those cases failed to reach fruition. Investigations lost momentum, prosecutions failed to marshal the available evidence and many cases were dismissed, some on technical grounds. Between 2019 and 2024, a total of 102 cases were withdrawn from the courts by the government authorities. The public knew, or strongly believed, that corruption and serious crimes had taken place. The inability to establish wrongdoing before a court of law and hold those responsible accountable created a climate in which political power appeared to provide protection from legal accountability.

A countrywide study titled Factors Guiding Voter Preference in Elections in Sri Lanka was commissioned by the National Peace Council prior to the 2024 elections under the European Union funded project Active Citizens for Elections and Democracy and conducted by researchers Dr Mahesh Senanayake and Ms Crishni Silva of the University of Colombo. It found overwhelming public support for accountability and good governance. While 93 percent of respondents identified resolving the economic crisis as their foremost electoral concern, an equally striking 83 percent said they prioritised candidates committed to fighting corruption. The mandate given to the government can, therefore, be interpreted to mean to restore integrity to public life and end the long standing culture of impunity.

Different Approach

Today, it can be seen that the police, the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption, the Attorney General’s Department and the judiciary are approaching matters of impunity in respect of corruption and crime in a manner that is markedly different from the past. Several persons who formerly occupied high office have now been subjected to due legal process and, in a number of cases, convicted after judicial scrutiny at different levels of the court system. This is an important difference from earlier years when cases involving politically prominent persons frequently failed to proceed or collapsed before reaching their conclusion. The strength of the present accountability process lies not only in the convictions that have been secured but also in the growing public confidence that no one is above the law. It is in this context that reports of a government proposal to extend by two years the retirement age of judges of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal have generated support from those who wish to see the present accountability process continue and opposition from those who see it as an attempt to influence the judiciary.

Many countries have increased judicial retirement ages in recognition of longer life expectancy and the value of retaining experienced judges. This has not only been limited to the judiciary but also the academia and the public service. However, the controversy in Sri Lanka is due to the context and as the proposal for an extension of the period of service of judges of the superior courts comes at a time when the courts are hearing politically significant corruption and criminal cases. The Bar Association of Sri Lanka has taken the lead in questioning the proposed constitutional amendment. The BASL has stated that it “notes with grave concern” reports that the government is considering increasing the retirement age of judges of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal. It has warned that extending the tenure of sitting judges at this point of time is likely to be viewed by the public as an attempt to interfere with the independence of the judiciary.

The main issue raised by the BASL is therefore one of preserving public confidence in the administration of justice. A discussion organised by the BASL also highlighted that this issue has implications beyond Sri Lanka. Representatives of the Commonwealth Lawyers Association and LAWASIA acknowledged that many countries have increased the retirement age of judges in recognition of greater life expectancy and the value of retaining experienced judges. Their concern was not with increasing the retirement age itself but with changing the tenure of sitting judges while politically significant corruption cases are before the courts. In such circumstances, even well intentioned reform could create a public perception that the judiciary is being influenced to take forward the government’s mandate in a partisan manner.

Maintain Confidence

The challenge before the government is to preserve two equally important objectives. The first is to continue implementing the people’s mandate to hold the corrupt and those responsible for grave crimes accountable before the law. The second is to ensure that nothing is done which could diminish public confidence in the independence and impartiality of the judiciary that is entrusted with carrying out that responsibility. The strength of the present accountability process lies in the confidence it has generated among the public that investigations, prosecutions and judicial decisions are being made according to law as in the convictions that have been secured. Sri Lanka has come a long way from the days when politically sensitive cases rarely reached a successful conclusion. It would be unfortunate if doubts regarding the independence of the judiciary were to overshadow what has otherwise been a significant institutional achievement.

In the face of the concerns expressed by the BASL, opposition political parties and international legal organisations, it would be prudent for the government to widen the discussion on the proposed amendment. If there is a compelling case to increase the retirement age of judges of the superior courts, that case should be placed before the public and parliament and debated openly. Such a constitutional amendment should not rest solely on the government’s parliamentary majority, even if it has the numbers to secure its passage. Simply utilising the numbers that the government on its own to make changes to the constitution will not increase its legitimacy or credibility. Those values will be strengthened if they were preceded by public consultation and supported across party lines in Parliament. Bipartisan political support can be expected from those in the opposition, of whom there are many, who have shown an inclination to practice responsible politics in the national interest.

The people voted not only to change a government but to change a system. They expected those who abused public trust to be held accountable through institutions that commanded public confidence. That expectation is beginning to be fulfilled. It should not be placed at risk by constitutional change that lacks broad public acceptance. If the government believes there is a compelling case to extend the retirement age of the judges of the superior courts, it should first make that case to the people and seek bipartisan support in Parliament with those in the opposition who are also sincere about anti-corruption and good governance. The challenge is to protect the independence of the judiciary while ensuring that no one is above the law. Overcoming this challenge is the surest way to make Sri Lanka’s transition from a culture of impunity to one of accountability a lasting one.

by Jehan Perera

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Intelligence-led governance: the strategic path to a sovereign nation

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In an increasingly volatile and interconnected world, the strength of a nation is no longer determined solely by the size of its military, the abundance of its natural resources, or the growth of its economy.

In an increasingly volatile and interconnected world, the strength of a nation is no longer determined solely by the size of its military, the abundance of its natural resources, or the growth of its economy. The true measure of national strength lies in the resilience of its institutions, the confidence of its people, the effectiveness of its governance, and its ability to anticipate and respond to emerging challenges before they become national crises.

The twenty-first century has introduced a security landscape that is far more complex than ever before. Nations today confront not only conventional military threats but also terrorism, organised crime, cyber-attacks, economic instability, disinformation, climate change, pandemics, energy insecurity, irregular migration, financial crimes, and geopolitical competition. These challenges are interconnected and demand integrated responses rather than isolated solutions.

To navigate this evolving environment successfully, every nation requires a shared strategic vision supported by strong institutions working in harmony. At the centre of this vision should be a modern, professional, and intelligence-led system of governance that enables informed decision-making, protects democratic values, and promotes sustainable national development.

A Shared Strategic Vision

Every successful nation should aspire towards a common national vision:

A Sovereign Nation Happy People Peaceful Society Prosperous Economy A Respected Global Partner

These are not independent aspirations but interconnected national outcomes. Achieving them requires every State institution to work collectively under a common strategic framework rather than as isolated entities pursuing individual objectives.

A sovereign nation is one that possesses not only secure borders but also strong institutions, economic resilience, social cohesion, and the confidence to make independent national decisions. Sovereignty today extends beyond territorial integrity to include economic security, cyber resilience, energy security, food security, environmental sustainability, and protection against external influence.

Good Governance: The Cornerstone

The foundation of every successful nation is good governance.

Transparency, accountability, integrity, professionalism, and efficient public administration create an environment where citizens trust their institutions and investors have confidence in the country’s future. Corruption, political interference, inefficiency, and weak institutions undermine national resilience and weaken sovereignty from within.

Good governance is not merely an administrative principle; it is a national security imperative.

When public institutions function efficiently, public services improve, economic opportunities expand, and social grievances diminish. This reduces vulnerabilities that extremist groups, organised criminals, and foreign actors often exploit.

The Rule of Law and Judicial Independence

An independent judiciary is one of the strongest pillars of democracy.

Justice must be administered impartially and without fear or favour. Citizens must have confidence that the law applies equally to everyone, regardless of social status or political influence.

Judicial independence strengthens public confidence, attracts foreign investment, and reinforces national stability. Investors are more likely to invest in countries where contracts are enforceable, disputes are resolved fairly, and property rights are protected.

Likewise, professional law enforcement agencies play a vital role in safeguarding public order. Intelligence-led policing, supported by modern investigative techniques, community engagement, and technological innovation, enables law enforcement to prevent crime rather than merely react to it.

Human Rights: A Strategic Asset

There is often a misconception that national security and human rights exist in opposition. In reality, they reinforce one another.

Respect for human dignity, equality before the law, freedom of expression, religious freedom, and constitutional rights strengthens national unity and social cohesion. Citizens who trust their institutions are more willing to cooperate with authorities, report suspicious activities, and participate in community safety initiatives.

Communities become the first line of defence against extremism, organised crime, and social unrest when mutual trust exists between citizens and the State.

Human rights should therefore be viewed not as obstacles to security but as essential components of sustainable national security.

Intelligence: The Strategic Nerve Centre

At the heart of modern governance lies an effective national intelligence network.

Traditionally, intelligence was associated primarily with military operations and counter-terrorism. Today, its responsibilities extend much further.

Modern intelligence supports political leadership by providing timely, accurate, objective, and actionable information that enables informed decision-making. It anticipates threats, identifies opportunities, and supports strategic planning across all sectors of government.

An effective intelligence system should be:

*  Predictive rather than reactive.

*  Preventive rather than investigative alone.

*  Integrated rather than fragmented.

*  Technology-driven rather than paper-based.

*  People-centred rather than institution-centred.

Artificial intelligence, big data analytics, cyber intelligence, financial intelligence, geospatial intelligence, satellite imagery, behavioural analysis, digital forensics, and open-source intelligence are transforming the intelligence profession worldwide.

Countries that fail to modernise their intelligence capabilities risk strategic surprise and reduced competitiveness in an increasingly data-driven world.

Intelligence Beyond National Security

Modern intelligence should no longer be confined to counter-terrorism or espionage.

Its role should extend to supporting national development through the protection of critical infrastructure, monitoring economic trends, securing supply chains, safeguarding maritime interests, protecting natural resources, and assessing climate-related risks.

Intelligence should assist policymakers in areas such as:

*  Economic planning

*  Public health preparedness

*  Disaster risk reduction

*  Cybersecurity

*  Energy security

*  Food security

*  Environmental protection

*  Artificial intelligence governance

*  Foreign policy

*  Investment protection

An intelligence-led government anticipates future challenges instead of merely responding after crises emerge.

Whole-of-Government Cooperation

One of the greatest weaknesses in many developing nations is institutional fragmentation.

Government agencies often collect valuable information independently but fail to share it effectively. This creates duplication, delays, and missed opportunities.

A National Intelligence Fusion Centre should integrate information from intelligence services, police, armed forces, immigration, customs, financial intelligence units, cyber security agencies, disaster management authorities, health services, and environmental agencies.

Such integration provides decision-makers with a comprehensive national picture and significantly improves crisis management and strategic planning.

Economic Prosperity Through Security

Economic development depends fundamentally upon stability.

Foreign investors seek countries where governance is predictable, corruption is controlled, contracts are enforceable, infrastructure is secure, and political stability is maintained.

An effective intelligence system quietly protects these conditions by identifying threats to investment, monitoring organised crime, preventing financial fraud, protecting critical infrastructure, and safeguarding strategic industries.

Security and economic development are therefore mutually reinforcing.

Investment creates employment.

Employment reduces poverty.

Reduced poverty strengthens social stability.

Social stability reinforces national security.

International Partnerships

No nation can successfully confront modern threats alone.

Transnational organised crime, cybercrime, narcotics trafficking, terrorism, money laundering, illegal migration, and environmental crimes operate across borders.

Regional and global intelligence cooperation has therefore become indispensable.

Information sharing, joint investigations, coordinated maritime surveillance, and collaborative cyber defence significantly enhance national capabilities while strengthening diplomatic relationships.

Strong intelligence supports effective diplomacy.

Effective diplomacy enhances trade, investment, tourism, education, and technological cooperation.

Ultimately, international confidence contributes directly to national prosperity.

The Relationship Between National Stakeholders

National success depends upon collaboration among all stakeholders.

Government provides leadership and policy direction.

The judiciary safeguards justice.

Law enforcement protects public safety.

The intelligence community provides foresight and early warning.

Civil society strengthens social cohesion.

Educational institutions develop future leaders.

The private sector generates investment and innovation.

International partners facilitate trade, cooperation, and knowledge sharing.

Citizens themselves remain the most important stakeholders.

When these institutions operate with mutual trust, shared objectives, and effective coordination, they create a resilient State capable of responding confidently to both domestic and international challenges.

The Strategic Path Forward

Every nation requires a long-term vision rather than short-term political agendas.

That vision should place national interest above partisan interests and institutional collaboration above bureaucratic competition.

The pathway is straightforward:

Good Governance Independent Judiciary Professional Law Enforcement Protection of Human Rights Effective National Intelligence Network Political Stability Investor Confidence Economic Growth Foreign Direct Investment Peaceful Society Happy People A Sovereign Nation

This strategic chain demonstrates that sovereignty is not achieved through military strength alone. It is the cumulative outcome of good governance, justice, intelligence, economic resilience, and public confidence.

The future belongs to nations that can anticipate change, adapt rapidly, and make informed strategic decisions. Intelligence must therefore evolve from being viewed solely as a security function to becoming a central pillar of national governance and development.

A modern intelligence network should serve as the strategic nervous system of the State—connecting governance with justice, justice with security, security with economic prosperity, and prosperity with international respect.

A sovereign nation is ultimately one where institutions are trusted, citizens are protected, rights are respected, opportunities are created, and decisions are guided by knowledge rather than assumption. When all stakeholders work in harmony under a shared strategic vision, the result is a nation that is secure, prosperous, peaceful, and respected on the global stage.

The challenge before every developing nation is therefore not simply to strengthen its security apparatus but to embrace Intelligence-Led Governance as a national philosophy—one that integrates good governance, rule of law, human rights, innovation, and strategic foresight into a unified framework for sustainable national development. Such a vision will not only safeguard sovereignty but also ensure that future generations inherit a nation defined by stability, prosperity, and enduring peace

By Mahil Dole, SSP (Rtd.)

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The perfect victim: How institutions respond

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Nils Christie

It has been almost two months since the judgement of Abeyasinghe v Tilakaratne and others by the Supreme Court. Since then, I have often been asked a simple question, which I, too, have asked myself. “Has anything actually changed?” My answer is both yes and no. Judgements can uphold the law, direct institutions and clarify principles. But they cannot, by themselves, change cultures.

I shall take the liberty of writing this piece because, in the weeks following the judgment, I have found myself reflecting less on the outcome of the case and more on what it reveals about our institutions. Yet institutions do not change simply because a court has spoken. They change only when they are willing to question long-held assumptions, reflect honestly on their procedures and practices, learn from their shortcomings and act decisively to foster a culture that places accountability at its centre.

The myth of the perfect victim

One such assumption is about the conduct of the Ideal or Perfect victim. The concept of the “ideal victim” was first articulated by the Norwegian criminologist Nils Christie in 1986. Interestingly, Christie was not concerned with identifying those most likely to become victims of crime. Instead, his question was who is most readily recognised and accepted by society as a “real” victim? Society is often more willing to extend sympathy and credibility to victims who fit a particular stereotype. According to Christie, the “ideal victim” is someone perceived to be weak and vulnerable, engaged in a respectable activity, in a place where they have every right to be, harmed by someone clearly viewed as “big” or “bad,” and, importantly, a stranger rather than someone they know. These characteristics continue to influence how victims are perceived today. Although we may not consciously apply such criteria, they often shape our instinctive judgments about who deserves to be believed.

In the context of sexual violence within universities, the assumptions surrounding the ideal victim quickly begin to unravel. Power relationships within universities are often complex, and professional relationships may have existed before the misconduct. The alleged perpetrator may not be a stranger but a lecturer, supervisor, colleague, or fellow student. The complainant may continue interacting with the alleged perpetrator because academic progression or employment leaves little choice. When a victim does not fit the mould of the “perfect victim,” attention shifts away from the conduct of the alleged perpetrator and towards the conduct of the complainant.

What should be kept in mind is that victims respond to trauma differently. Some report immediately; many do not. Some become emotional; others appear composed. Some resign from their workplace, while others continue to work because they have no realistic alternative or because they wish to confront the violence head on. Some preserve every piece of evidence; others delete messages simply because they cannot bear to see them again. Yet these perfectly human responses are often interpreted as reasons to doubt credibility.

Universities provide a particularly complex setting for this phenomenon. Most complainants do not initially seek justice. More often, they simply want the harassment to stop so that they can continue their education or employment in an environment where they feel safe. Sometimes victims make anonymous complaints, not because they wish to avoid accountability, but because anonymity provides the only sense of security they have. During preliminary inquiries/ fact finding processes, confidentiality can often be maintained. However, if the matter proceeds to a formal disciplinary process, complainants are usually required to reveal their identities. It is at this point that many decide not to proceed further, not because the harassment did not occur, but because the personal cost of pursuing justice becomes overwhelming.

Perhaps this should prompt us to ask a different question. Instead of asking why anonymous complaints exist or why complainants don’t come forward (sooner), should we not ask why so many complainants feel unsafe engaging with the institutional process?

The subject of scrutiny

When survivors do come forward, they frequently encounter another familiar phenomenon, victim blaming.

“Why didn’t you complain earlier?”

“Why didn’t you go to the police?”

“If you were sexually harassed, why are you still working there?”

“Why did you continue interacting with him?”

“The reason this happened is because you showed positivity towards him.”

“There is no smoke without fire.”

Although these questions appear different, they have something in common. They all examine the behaviour of the complainant. Very few begin by asking why the alleged perpetrator behaved in the way described. The familiar proverb, “There is no smoke without fire,” is often used to suggest that the complainant must have done something to invite the misconduct. Yet perhaps we have misunderstood where the fire lies. The fire is not the complainant’s behaviour. The fire is the conduct of the alleged perpetrator. The complaint is the smoke that finally becomes visible.

These responses also reveal another contradiction. If a victim complains immediately, some might question their motives. If they delay, the delay becomes the issue. If they resign, they may be described as unstable or unable to cope. If they remain in employment, their continued presence is taken as evidence that the misconduct could not have been serious or that it never had happened. If they show emotion, they risk being dismissed as irrational. If they remain composed, they may be accused of exaggerating. In truth, there is often no version of events in which a complainant can satisfy every expectation placed upon them. If our systems only work for the “perfect victim,” then they were never truly designed for victims at all.

The silence that speaks

The recent judgment also prompted me to reflect on another aspect of institutional culture, silence. Within academia, even discussing judgments concerning one’s own institution may be framed as bringing the institution into disrepute. Such framing places academics in an impossible position. Those who speak are sometimes portrayed as being disloyal or as failing to respect the institution they serve. Yet genuine respect for an institution should not require silence in the face of injustice. Universities are places that encourage academic freedom, critical inquiry, evidence-based reasoning, and intellectual debate. They should, therefore, be places where uncomfortable conversations are not avoided but embraced.

The relative silence surrounding the judgment in academia raises important questions. Does silence reflect satisfaction that justice has been served? Does it reflect concern about damaging the reputation of one’s university? Does it reflect uncertainty about whether difficult institutional conversations are welcome? Or does it reflect a real or perceived fear of professional consequences for speaking openly? These are questions that deserve thoughtful reflection.

Post judgement reflections

At the same time, my experience in the weeks following the judgment has also been one of hope. Individuals who have experienced different forms of abuse have quietly come forward to share their own stories with me. Some have sought legal advice. Others have simply wanted someone to listen. Their experiences remind me that judgments do more than resolve disputes between parties. They send messages to those who have remained silent, that seeking justice remains possible. Perhaps that is one answer to the question I posed at the beginning of this article. Has anything actually changed? For some victims, I believe the answer is yes. A judgement can restore hope and encourage those who had previously felt that their voices would never be heard.

Yet judgments alone cannot erase trauma, restore lost years, or undo the personal and professional consequences that many victims endure. Courts can interpret the law, but they cannot, by themselves, transform institutional culture. Culture changes only when institutions and university communities are willing to learn from judgments rather than merely comply with them. It changes when realities of power imbalances are recognised, when credibility is assessed through evidence rather than stereotypes, and when the question “Why did the victim not come forward sooner?” is replaced with “What conditions made it so difficult for the victim to come forward?” Ultimately, the true value of a judgement lies not only in the orders it makes, but also in the conversations it inspires and the institutional self-reflection it demands. Whether anything truly changes will not depend on the judgement itself, but on whether institutions have the courage to learn from them.

(Udari Abeyasinghe is attached to the Faculty of Dental Sciences at the University of Peradeniya)

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

by Udari Abeyasinghe

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