Editorial
Economic recovery:some home truths
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has told Sri Lanka some home truths, the most disconcerting one being that economic recovery is beginning to lose momentum. It has attributed this situation to post-disaster disruptions, the West Asia conflict and rising global oil prices. These three factors are causing high inflationary risks, the IMF has said, warning that economic growth in 2026 could drop to 3% from 5% in 2025. Not that these facts were unknown to the government, the Opposition and the public, but dispassionate statements made by the IMF are credible and more impactful.
The parlous state of Sri Lanka’s economy is also due to several other factors, such as a sharp drop in tourism receipts, vehicle imports that helped revive the automobile sector and boost state revenue but took a heavy toll on foreign reserves, a huge increase in diesel consumption by oil-fired power plants to compensate for a generation loss caused by a coal procurement racket at Norochcholai, and staggering disaster recovery costs.
Problems like external pressures on the economy, caused by foreign conflicts, etc., are obviously beyond Sri Lanka’s control, but other causative factors could have been tackled much better. Vehicle imports should have been regulated properly, with a balance being maintained between revenue generation and the stability of foreign currency reserves.
The JVP-NPP government is apparently driven by a desire to brag that it has ‘filled the state coffers” and done much better than its predecessor on the economic front. It should have restricted vehicle imports and nonessentials much earlier at the first signs of trouble to ease mounting pressure on the rupee. Procrastination is the thief of forex. Measures taken to address the rupee and foreign currency crises must complement each other to help achieve the broader goal of economic stability and growth.
After weeks of dilly-dallying, the JVP-NPP government has taken some action to curtail the foreign exchange outflow. However, its efforts to reduce the national oil bill are far from satisfactory. Expenditure on fuel imports is the largest item in Sri Lanka’s import basket, comprising around 20% of the total import bill on average annually over the past 10 years, according to the Central Bank data. So, reducing the oil bill is half the battle in strengthening the country’s foreign currency reserves. The government should intensify its focus on increasing power generation from renewable sources and encouraging rooftop solar projects across the country while developing the public transport sector to reduce fuel consumption significantly.
The IMF can only assist in achieving economic stability, and sustained growth has to be achieved through a far-reaching reform drive. The biggest challenge before the JVP-NPP government is not holding the Opposition at bay but preparing the country for the task of straightening up the economy, instead of making more promises and promoting the “hand-out culture” in the name of social welfare. Most of all, corruption must be eliminated and austerity measures adopted in keeping with the promises of the JVP/NPP.
The IMF has reportedly indicated support for temporary fiscal easing in 2026 to accommodate relief measures linked to external shocks and reconstruction spending following Cyclone Ditwah, but the government is expected to return to stricter fiscal targets from 2027 onward. This kind of reprieve is popularly called an interval in hell. The Opposition had better take cognisance of the harsh economic reality and stop promising the public the stars and the moon in a bid to recover lost ground. It does not seem to have an alternative strategy to stabilise the economy and spur growth. If it knows how to do so, let it be urged to reveal its plan for the benefit of the country. Mere rhetoric won’t do.
While out of power, the JVP/NPP, too, pretended to have a panacea for all economic ills of the country and won elections. It is now struggling to make good on its election promises, most of which remain unfulfilled. The Opposition ought to stop trying to dupe the public into believing that more relief can be granted while the economy is in the current state.
Editorial
Emperor’s new clothes
Friday 5th June, 2026
The Opposition’s propaganda mill is in overdrive, manufacturing various stories about a split in the JVP-NPP government. Mighty governments collapse not because their political enemies regain lost ground and turn the tables on them. They fall largely because the arrogance of power blinds their leaders to reality while their members dare not speak truth to power. Government members sing hosannas to their leaders and even defend the latter’s wrongdoing, committing collective political hara-kiri in the process. The incumbent JVP-NPP government has its fair share of acolytes who try to defend the indefensible.
Former Public Security Minister Sarath Weerasekera (SW), in his response to a recent editorial in this newspaper, has sought to lay the blame for the failure of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR) government on others. In his letter published on the opposite page, today, he insists that the Rajapaksas had the national interest at heart. He implies that they never engaged in dynastic politics, and the 2022 economic crisis was due to factors other than the mismanagement of the economy.
The economy went into a tailspin during the GR government not solely due to the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the repayment of foreign loans obtained by the Yahapalana government. Economists have pointed out that the pandemic did not cause bankruptcy on its own, but it acted as a major trigger that exposed pre-existing weaknesses such as high debt, weak foreign reserves, and overdependence on exports and tourism. All governments pay back loans obtained by their predecessors.
The GR government should have sought IMF help at the first signs of trouble. One may recall that acting on Central Bank (CB) advice, the Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) government (2005-2010) secured IMF assistance and managed an emerging forex crisis, which would have derailed the war effort. If the GR government had heeded CB advice and taken action to increase tax revenue and shore up the country’s foreign currency reserves with IMF help, the 2022 economic crisis could have been averted.
Sri Lanka had to opt for a soft default and seek IMF assistance in 2022. The choice it had was between a soft default and a hard default, which would have ruined its chances of borrowing from external sources again. Sri Lanka was bankrupt, and that fact had to be announced.
The UPFA and SLPP administrations during MR’s second presidential term (2010-2015) and GR’s presidency (2019-2022) were in fact governments of the Rajapaksas by the Rajapaksas for the Rajapaksas. In the GR government, the number of key ministries held by the Rajapaksas increased to five. The share of government expenditure linked to the ministries controlled by them was more than 50% between 2010 and 2015 and between 2019 and 2022, according to political commentators. The other members of the MR government (2010-2015) became so disgruntled that a group of prominent UPFA MPs including ministers voted with their feet in 2014, and General Secretary of the SLFP Maithripala Sirisena went on to challenge MR in the 2015 presidential contest and secure the presidency. As many as 41 SLPP MPs broke ranks with the GR government in early 2022.
Aragalaya,
which crippled the Rajapaksa rule, began as a genuine, leaderless protest campaign against economic hardships, especially prolonged fuel shortages and power cuts. Some political forces infiltrated it subsequently, but it was losing steam when a group of SLPP goons set upon peaceful protesters at Galle Face in May 2022, and triggered a spree of retaliatory violence, which led to the ouster of the Rajapaksas, and paved the way for the 2024 regime change.
As for reconciliation, a retired Major General known for his distinguished military career and respected leadership, writing under a pseudonym––‘Old Soldier’––recently had this to say in his letter critical of the way the government handled this year’s War Heroes’ commemoration, which was the topic of the editorial comment under discussion: “Reparations are claimed by the winners in wars between nations. After civil conflicts there should be reconciliation. There should be no humiliation. When will commemoration of the dead be national in Sri Lanka?”
If the SLPP is to make a comeback, its leaders and their apologists must shed their aversion to self-criticism. The same applies to their equally self-righteous counterparts in other Opposition parties.
Editorial
Another game of chicken
Thursday 4th June, 2026
The government has locked horns with private bus operators, who are demanding a fare hike amidst soaring fuel prices. The former has rejected the fare hike demand out of hand, claiming that it is unfair. President of the Lanka Private Bus Owners’ Association Gemunu Wijeratne has threatened to launch a bus strike unless a fare increase is granted forthwith. He has claimed that there is legal provision for the annual bus fare revision due in July to be advanced. The government and the irate private bus owners are now playing a game of chicken.
School vehicle operators have warned that they will have to increase fees. Trishaw owners have also demanded a fare hike. Container truck operators have already increased freight charges by 5% to offset surging operating expenses, primarily driven by higher diesel prices, inflated costs of tyres and spare parts.
A brutal one-two combination—fuel price hikes and rupee depreciation—has sent all vehicle owners, save a few, to the canvas, so to speak. The prices of spare parts, lubricants and tyres have also skyrocketed. It is only natural that transport operators are demanding fare revisions. The government should stop making political statements and address the issues facing the transport sector. The public cannot take any more shocks, and another fare hike is something everyone needs like a hole in the head. It may not be feasible to grant the bus operators’ request for a fuel subsidy, but the government may be able to help them lower costs in some other way.
It will not be possible to overcome Sri Lanka’s balance of payments woes, strengthen the rupee and shore up foreign currency reserves without a proper strategy to reduce the national fuel bill, which accounts for more than 20% of the total value of imports. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has pointed out that the country’s monthly fuel import expenditure has surged nearly six-fold. Driven by escalating tensions in West Asia, the fuel import bill rose from USD 98 million in February to USD 522 million in May, according to him. There is no gainsaying that drastic measures need to be adopted to reduce fuel consumption urgently. However, increasing fuel prices is not the only way to achieve this goal.
A country does not need a government to curtail the demand for fuel through price hikes. The JVP-NPP administration should be able to strategise to reduce fuel consumption through other means if it is to be considered worth its salt. Minister Anura Karunathilake and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation Chairman D. J. A. S Rajakaruna have gone on record as saying that action will be taken to have the QR-based fuel rationing system strictly regulated. Why didn’t the government care to do so earlier? If the fuel quota system is to be effective, the practice of motorists sharing the QR codes must be brought to an end. If the national fuel consumption has reached an unmanageable level, as President Dissanayake has said, will the government explain why fuel quotas were increased.
President Dissanayake and his government should learn from India’s efforts to reduce fuel consumption and adopt a top-down national austerity approach to conserve foreign exchange amidst external economic pressures. India’s strategy emphasises reducing official fuel use, adopting digital alternatives to travel, and promoting public transportation to manage energy consumption. After all, the JVP-led NPP came to power, promising austerity measures, which it must now adopt to curtail state expenditure while reducing the burgeoning import bill.
The JVP-NPP government is slow in responding to emergencies. Its disaster response following the landfall of Cyclone Ditwah was woefully tardy. It ignored warnings and waited until the country’s fuel reserves were almost depleted to introduce the QR-based rationing. It cannot wish away the threat of a private bus strike. It must get the bus owners around the table and have a serious discussion on how to resolve the transport sector woes instead of bellowing rhetoric.
Editorial
Lies and politics
Wednesday 3rd June, 2026
Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa is reported to have lamented that in Sri Lanka, politicians who are adept at lying succeed at the expense of those who work really hard. He never misses an opportunity to project himself as a hardworking politician, and therefore his political rivals may claim that his lament smacks of self-promotion. Nevertheless, his argument is not untenable. During the last several decades, we have heard zillions of lies uttered by numerous political leaders, who have overtaken Machiavelli, Goebbels and even Matilda, who told “such dreadful lies” as made “one grasp and stretch ones’ eyes”. Opposition parties are lucky that people lose interest in their campaign lies after elections.
Lying is the name of the game in Sri Lankan politics. False promises made by politicians out of power should also be considered lies, for they are intended to deceive the public. What are usually described as the incumbent government’s lies are the false promises contained in the NPP manifesto or made by JVP/NPP politicians before the 2024 elections.
It has now become clear that the JVP/NPP leaders lied to the public when they said they were opposed to the manner in which debt was restructured and, if voted into office, they would renegotiate the bailout agreement signed between the IMF and the previous government. But after forming a government they opted to keep the agreement intact, and wisely so. The SJB has been saying something similar about the IMF programme, and it would have been exposed for lying if it had been able to form a government.
Some Opposition parties that have banded together to challenge the government claim that they would have handled the current energy crisis differently and granted relief to the people by reducing taxes on fuel. Accusing its political rivals of lying to garner favour with the public, the government insists that there is no way the fuel prices can be slashed. It finds itself in an IMF straitjacket, and has to fulfill the bailout conditions or lose IMF assistance. It is required to increase state revenue and ensure that energy prices are cost reflective, the JVP/NPP says. So, the only way the Opposition can disprove the government’s claim that it has to increase fuel prices to recover costs is to obtain a detailed cost breakdown and prove that the fuel prices are way above costs. The Opposition politicians shedding copious tears for the public ought to present facts and figures to support their claim that the government is jacking up fuel prices to meet the cost of extra diesel stocks purchased to operate the oil-fired power plants to make up for the Norochcholai generation loss caused by fraudulently procured low-grade coal. Mere rhetoric won’t do. Parliament is the best forum where the Opposition should pressure the government to reveal how fuel prices are determined.
Meanwhile, an SJB spokesman has said something that is construed in some quarters as an unwitting admission that the Opposition’s claim that the JVP-NPP government is not on the right course to strengthen the economy is false. Likening the JVP-NPP government, which is making a frantic effort navigate a host of vexed issues to straighten up the economy, to the proverbial bullocks pulling loaded carts up the steep slope of Haputale, SJB MP Mujibur Rahman has said the SJB is waiting until that task is completed to capture power. It is advisable to get the JVP-led administration to tackle the current economic issues because the JVP/NPP, after losing its hold on power, will never allow a future government to do so, he has said. He may have sought to make his party out to be smarter than the JVP/NPP, but what was intended as a back-handed compliment became an unintended compliment for the government besides exposing the Opposition’s hypocrisy. What one gathers from his statement is that the SJB is waiting to enjoy the fruits of the JVP-NPP government’s labour while criticising the ongoing economic recovery programme. In other words, the SJB knows that the government is doing what is necessary to strengthen the economy. If it is as patriotic as it claims to be, it should subjugate its political agenda to the national interest and help strengthen the economy.
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