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Could ‘greenwashing’ Adani wind project help save Mannar?

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By Hemantha Withanage

Senior Advisor, Centre for Environmental Justice

There is no gainsaying that we have to look for green energy to combat climate change. However, the world now seeks a “just energy transition”, meaning the development of energy sources that do not harm local communities and nature while doing justice for workers. Mannar, the location for the Adani wind power project, is undoubtedly a very sensitive location for different reasons. This island has been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change. Mannar is expected to lose over 8000 ha of land to sea level rise in the next 25 years.

The proposed wind power project in Mannar has become controversial due to its impact on the birds, the cost of its electricity, and the unsolicited bidding process. The project is unusual as it is an agreement with political regimes in India and Sri Lanka and not an ordinary investment project. It is also linked to the proposed transmission line between India and Sri Lanka. This is not included in the approved Long-Term Energy Generation Plan-2023-2042(LTEGP) or the Renewable Energy Development Master Action Plan (REDMAP) developed by the CEB.

This Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is highly inadequate due to its weak components, including the identification of alternatives, lack of cumulative impacts assessment and an attempt to greenwash a destructive project.

Why is cumulative impact important?

The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) manages a 100 MW “Thambapawani” wind power project in Mannar. A feasibility study for a second project has also been conducted. The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the Adani project is the third project set to be built on Mannar Island.

On another note, both coasts of the island have been given to Mars Minerals and Metals, an Indian mining company, to explore ilmenite. Furthermore, an Australian mining company is in the process of purchasing land for ilmenite mining. However, we have noticed that the TOR has not specifically requested a cumulative impact assessment, which is a significant weakness.

The Adani wind power project will install 52 turbines on the entire island and construct several kilometres of access roads across sensitive habitats. The EIA states, “The key result of the cumulative assessment is that the Mannar II wind park would not make any material change to the cumulative impacts for Mannar I and the transmission line, as it would contribute only a small additional risk. I disagree with this statement as the existing project located only one line of turbines on the southern coast of the island; in contrast, the new 250 MW Adani wind power project will lay 52 turbines on the entire island.

The Sustainable Energy Authority should be held responsible for declaring this region a renewable energy generation site without first assessing its social and environmental impact. Ideally, they should have conducted a Strategic Environmental Assessment before inviting investors. However, the MANNAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2018-2030 prepared by the Urban Development Authority has identified only the southern coast for renewable energy generation and the northern coast for fishery development. Yet, they compromised this plan when it gave a no-objection letter to the Adani wind power project, perhaps due to political pressure.

Effectiveness of emergency radar shutdown system

The Centre for Environmental Justice pushed the CEB and the Asian Development Bank regarding the ADB-funded 100 MW wind power plant due to the project’s location in the central Asian Flyway. This intervention resulted in installing an emergency radar shutdown system at an extra cost of about 1 million USD. As we know, Mannar is the most important wintering wetlands for migratory birds in Sri Lanka. In my opinion, this radar system is somewhat effective due to the size and location of the CEB project. However, we questioned the effectiveness of a radar system when the Adani Wind power project was built across the entire island.

According to The Island newspaper on 1st April 2024, Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera has stated, “According to the EIA Report, meticulous planning has been undertaken to mitigate potential risks to migratory birds. Contrary to assertions, the EIA report explicitly states that turbines will not be within the migratory birds’ flight corridor”. Interestingly, he believes that birds tend to fly within a corridor that spans 2 kilometres in width. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the proposal to create a so-called bird migration corridor is just a greenwashing idea. When we already know that elephant corridors in Sri Lanka are not functioning, how can they expect the birds to follow these human rules?

According to the data reported in Thambapawani solar park, the most affected birds due to turbines were raptors such as Brahminy kites. However, water birds have been adversely affected by the transmission lines. The EIA report endorses the feasibility of the wind park, claiming that the period with high wind does not coincide with the bird migration period. However, the Environment Monitoring Report- Thambapawani Wind Project shows 93 birds from 21 species have been killed during a 4-month period due to both transmission lines and the wind turbines. In the case of Thambapawani Wind Power Project, higher bird collision risks than predicted have occurred, as there are reported bird collisions in the transmission lines. I believe bird collisions will highly increase once the whole island is covered with wind turbines installed under the Adani wind power project.

I doubt whether the new wind power proposal has real interest in installing an effective radar system. The reason is that the Adani project, which has spread all over Mannar island, has allocated only 253,968 USD for the Emergency Radar Shutdown system. In comparison, the CEB wind project has spent about 1 million USD to install one horizontal and 2 vertical radar systems. Considering the area spread of the Adani project It might require more systems to install. Since there is no design available, this proposal is just a greenwashing.

Flooding may cause severe social impacts

Besides the impact on birds, the project will increase the flooding in the area. Thambapawani wind power project is responsible for the increase in floods on Mannar Island during the last few years, though it was not identified during the EIA stage.  We believe that this project will further aggravate the flooding in Mannar.  Figure 3-10 on page 109 of the EIA shows high flooding areas encompassing several turbine sites, access roads, and a substantial part of the main road bisecting the island. The risk assessment on page 181 indicates the project is in a flood hazard area, with flood risk for turbine foundations on an annual basis.

Out of 72,000 people living in Mannar island, at least 40,000 people were affected by floods in the past. This project will undoubtedly increase flooding. However, no funds have been allocated for offsetting flood related impacts at the operation stage. The company will not be responsible for future flood mitigation work, and the government of Sri Lanka will have to spend public money on this.

Impacts on freshwater

According to the UDA Mannar Development Plan, water scarcity has been identified as a prominent element. The report states, “Historically, Mannar town has been facing many problems in accessing drinking water. Because Mannar is an only Island, people depend on groundwater for their day-to-day needs, but that is too salty and not suitable for drinking”. Due to ill development in the island including proposed mining, piling work for windmills, the proposed road network and the drainage and flooding will have serious negative impacts on the freshwater availability for human consumption. Who is going to pay for the future water projects?

Energy sovereignty at stake

Energy sovereignty is a prerequisite for the independence of a country. This project will have impacts beyond the environment and society. Although the Sustainable Energy Authority has been the project developer, it is only a proxy proponent. It is taking environmental clearance on behalf of the Adani company, owned by an Indian tycoon, to enter the Sri Lankan energy generation sector. They will have 6% of the control in the energy sector, and with Adani’s second power plant in Poonaryn, they will have 12% control of the energy generation in Sri Lanka. We also know there is ongoing negotiation to connect India and Sri Lanka through a transmission cable. This will seriously compromise the energy sovereignty of Sri Lanka.

Lack of alternative identification

The EIA’s alternative analysis is crucial. It should have also explored the possibility of having offshore turbines, alternative sites, and downscaling the project. High wind energy potential sites in mainland Sri Lanka could also generate 250 MW wind farms without significant ecological damage. Solar power is also a viable alternative. However, these technology alternatives have not been adequately considered in the EIA.

Although we agree that the LTGEP plan 2022-2041 includes multiple renewable energy sources and low-carbon technologies to provide green energy to the country for the next two decades, we have pointed out that this plan has not undergone a Strategic Environmental Assessment. As a result, it fails to identify the negative impacts of wind energy compared to solar power in other locations. Therefore, we would like to reiterate that the alternative site and technology analysis is highly inadequate in this EIA.

Destroying palmyra trees and reforestation

The EIA states that the proposed project will not have major adverse impacts on species of flora in the overall landscape. However, according to the EIA, a total of 4,256 Palmyra palms could be affected due to the installation of the wind turbines in the Hard-Standing Area (95mx90m). Additionally, 4,981 Palmyra palms will be cleared to establish the access roads and internal power cables. The number of palmyra palms in the soft standing area is 8822. We consider this as a major change in the tree cover on the island and will have a severe impact on the bird population as many birds use them for roosting and nesting. This aspect has not been studied adequately in the EIA.

The Mannar residents think that the number of palmyra palms to be removed is much higher as there are many saplings under each mature tree. EIA also states It is difficult to predict the exact number of palmyra palms to be felled site-specifically as action will be taken to minimize the palmyra palms to be cut in the Hard and Soft Standing Areas during the construction stage. Furthermore, a total of 260 coconut palms will be affected by turbine construction.

EIA has proposed an allocation of USD 707,491 for 62 ha of reforestation. However, it has not identified the areas where reforestation will happen. This is very important to negate the impacts of loss of habitats for species. However, such tree plantation will not immediately benefit the birds and other animals which use those trees as habitats and for nesting. The EIA does not provide which species will have significant negative impacts due to the loss of over 8000 trees.

Do not mix-up CSR and benefits to local communities

We have learned that the project proponent has already reached out to fishermen groups to convince them on the project. However, except the improved road network, the community will receive no benefits from the project. Mannar is a tourist destination popular among the bird watchers. The EIA report expects tourism potential will develop further as they might be attractive for tourists to watch those turbines. We believe this is not really the case. In fact, tourism potential may be reduced due to a lack of incoming birds. A steep drop in bird visits, a reduction in wildlife and the depletion of the tree cover in Mannare will severely impact Mannar’s economy and the potential for wildlife-based tourism planned by the Tourism Development Authority and Northern Development framework.

Meanwhile, the EIA has included CSR activities as part of the benefits. They cannot be considered the benefit sharing of the project. Adani as an Indian company and mandatory for companies to spend at least 2% of average net profits made during the three immediately preceding fiscal years (the “Minimum CSR Amount”) on CSR initiatives in accordance with the company’s CSR Policy.

We have learnt that non-title holders of lands will not get compensation for their losses. They will only get land development costs and a one-time payment of 100,000 rupees. Information on the land entitlement in the project area is not available. Around 4500 people live in the GN divisions where these wind turbines are planned.

Does the project conform to just energy transition principles?

The climate solution may harm the people and nature who are not even responsible for climate change. While the contribution of people in Mannar is negligible to climate change, the migratory birds are not responsible for the climate crisis. This is where just energy transition principles are important.

‘Just Energy’ transition is about defunding fossil fuels in a way that reduces inequality, shifting the costs of climate action onto wealthy polluters while prioritizing economic, racial, and gender justice. It requires stopping the use of fossil fuels and utilising renewable energy sources, while ensuring that efforts to scale up renewable energy production do not replicate the harms of fossil fuel, like taking land from people without consent and unjust compensation. It also requires working with indigenous community leaders to seek their free, prior, and informed consent when rolling out renewable projects on their land. The Adani project must respect the Just Energy Transition principles. However, this project neglects the community’s voices and participation.

The project could cause more negative impacts than positive ones on the country, posing significant threats to the environment and communities. The EIA has not considered the combined effects of this and future projects. The area has unique natural resources and ecosystems that could be adversely affected. The extended cost-benefit analysis has not considered the loss of fishery, long-term impacts on birds, bird migration, and other ecological impacts. If the project is to continue, it should explore better alternatives. The project-approving agency should advise the proponent to produce an addendum to study such alternatives for this wind power project. Greenwashing, such as the so-called bird migration route, cannot save Mannar Island or the bird life.



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Your six-year-old needs a tablet like a fish needs a smartphone

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THE GREAT DIGITAL RETHINK — PART II

Nordic countries handed tablets to toddlers and called it early childhood education. Now they’re taking the tablets back, handing out pencils, and hoping nobody noticed. Meanwhile, the Global South is still signing the tablet contracts. Someone should probably warn them.

The Tablet Arrives in Preschool

It is 2013, a government minister stands in a preschool in Stockholm, handing a shiny tablet to a four-year-old. Press cameras click. A press release announces that Sweden is building the digital classrooms of the future. The child, who until recently had been learning to hold a crayon, now swipes confidently at a screen. Innovation! Progress! The future!

Fast forward to 2023, the same Swedish government, or at least its successors, announces that preschools were wrong to make digital devices mandatory. Children’s reading comprehension is declining. Books are going back on the shelves. Pencils are making a comeback. The preschool tablets are being quietly wheeled into storage, and nobody wants to talk about the press release.

What Finland Actually Did — And Is Now Undoing

Finland has long held a special place in the global education imagination. When PISA scores are published and Finland sits at or near the top, education ministers from Seoul to São Paulo take note and wonder what they are doing wrong. Finland is the benchmark. Finland is the proof that good education is possible.

Which makes it all the more significant that Finland, in 2025, passed legislation banning mobile phones from classrooms. Not just recommending restraint. Not just issuing guidelines. Banning them, with teachers empowered to confiscate devices that disrupt learning. The law covers both primary and secondary schools. It came after years of evidence that children were distracted, and that Finland’s own PISA scores had been falling.

But the phone ban is only part of the story. The deeper shift in Finnish primary education has been a quiet reassertion of analogue fundamentals. Early literacy is being treated again as a craft that requires time, patience, practice and, crucially, a pencil.

Sweden gave tablets to toddlers. Then took them back. The pencils were in a drawer the whole time.

Sweden’s Spectacular U-Turn

Sweden’s reversal is arguably the most dramatic in recent educational history, because Sweden had gone further than most in embracing early-years digitalisation. The country had not merely allowed devices in preschool, it had in places mandated them, treating digital interaction as a developmental right alongside physical play and social learning. There was a logic to it, however misplaced: if the future is digital, surely children should encounter that future as early as possible.

The problem is that young children are not miniature adults navigating a digital workplace. They are human beings in the early stages of acquiring language, developing fine-motor-skills, building concentration and learning to regulate their own attention. These are not processes that are enhanced by a swipeable screen. Research on early childhood development is consistent on this point: young children learn language through conversation, storytelling, and physical manipulation of objects. They learn to write by writing, by the slow, muscular, tactile process of forming letters with a hand.

By 2023, Swedish education authorities had seen enough. Reading comprehension scores were down. Handwriting was deteriorating. Teachers were reporting that children were arriving in primary school unable to hold a pen properly. The policy reversed. Books came back. Cursive writing was reintroduced. The national curriculum was amended. And Sweden became, instead, a cautionary tale about what happens when you swap crayons for touchscreens before children have learned what crayons are for.

Australia: Banning Phones at Lunch

Australia’s approach to primary school digitalisation has been somewhat less ideologically charged than Scandinavia’s, and accordingly its reversal has been more pragmatic than philosophical. Australian states and territories arrived at phone bans largely through the accumulating pressure of parent complaints, teacher frustration and growing evidence that smartphones were damaging the social fabric of school life, not just in classrooms, but in playgrounds.

Queensland’s ‘away for the day’ policy, introduced in Term 1 of 2024, was notable precisely because it extended beyond lesson time to cover break times as well. This was a direct acknowledgement that the problem was not simply digital distraction during learning, it was the way that always-on connectivity was transforming childhood itself. Children who spend every break time on a phone are not playing, not resolving social conflicts face to face, not developing the unstructured social skills that primary school has always, if accidentally, taught.

The cyberbullying dimension added particular urgency in Australia, where research showed that many incidents of online harassment between primary-school children were occurring during school hours, facilitated by the phones sitting in their pockets. Banning the phone at the school gate did not solve the problem of online cruelty, but it did remove the school day as a venue for it.

The Science of the Pencil

The cognitive argument for handwriting in primary education is, it turns out, and far more interesting than the popular ‘screens bad, pencils good’ slogan suggests. The research on note-taking in university students, the finding that handwritten notes produce better conceptual understanding than typed notes, has a more fundamental parallel in primary education.

When a young child learns to write by hand, they are not merely practising a motor skill. They are encoding letters through physical movement, which activates memory systems that visual recognition alone does not reach. Studies in developmental psychology suggest that children who learn to write letters by hand recognise them faster and more accurately than those who learn through typing or tracing on screens. The hand, it appears, teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not.

This does not mean that digital tools have no place in primary education, nobody sensible is arguing that children should graduate from primary school unable to use a keyboard. The question is sequencing and proportion. The emerging consensus, hard-won through a decade of failed experiments, is that foundational literacy and numeracy need to be established through analogue means before digital tools are introduced as supplements. Screens can follow pencils. Pencils, it turns out, cannot follow screens without catching up on what was missed.

The hand teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not. And it took a decade of falling scores to rediscover this.

The Rest of the World Is Still Buying Tablets

Here is the uncomfortable part. While Finland legislates, Sweden reverses course and Australia bans phones from playgrounds, a large portion of the world’s primary schools are doing the opposite. Governments across South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are actively expanding device programmes in primary schools. Tablets are being distributed. Interactive whiteboards are being installed. AI tutoring apps are being piloted. The logic is identical to the logic Finland and Sweden followed 15 years ago: modernise, digitalise, equip children for the future.

The vendors selling these systems are not telling ministers about the Swedish U-turn. The development banks financing device programmes are not adjusting their models to reflect the OECD’s inverted-U curve. The international consultants advising education ministries are largely still working from a playbook written in 2010.

The lesson of the Nordic reversal is not that screens are evil, it is that screens at the wrong stage, in the wrong proportion, without the right pedagogical framework, undermine the very foundations they are supposed to build on. That lesson is available. The question is whether anyone is listening.

What Primary Schools Actually Need

Literacy and numeracy are not enhanced by early device saturation. They are built through reading aloud, through writing by hand, through mathematical reasoning with physical objects, and through the irreplaceable medium of a skilled teacher who knows their students.

Technology in primary education works best when it supplements a strong foundation, not when it substitutes for one that has not yet been built. Sweden and Finland did not fail because they used technology. They failed because they used it too extensively, and without asking what it was actually for. That question — what is this for? — is the one that every primary school system in the world should be asking before it signs another tablet contract.

SERIES ROADMAP Part I: From Ed-Tech Enthusiasm to De-Digitalisation | Part II: Phones, Pens & Early Literacy (this article) | Part III: Attention, Algorithms & Adolescents | Part IV: Universities, AI & the Handwritten Exam | Part V: A Critical Theory of Educational De-Digitalisation

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)

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Government is willing to address the past

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Minister Ratnayake

Minister Bimal Rathnayake has urged all Sri Lankan refugees in India to return to Sri Lanka, stating that provision has been made for their reintegration. He called on India to grant citizenship to those who wished to stay on in India, but added that the government would welcome them back with both hands if they chose Sri Lanka. He gave due credit to the Organisation for Eelam Refugees Rehabilitation (OfERR), an NGO led by S. C. Chandrahasan, the son of S. J. V. Chelvanayakam, widely regarded as the foremost advocate of a federal solution and a historic leader of the Federal Party. OfERR has for decades assisted refugees, particularly Sri Lankan Tamils in India, with documentation, advocacy and voluntary repatriation support. Given the slow pace of resettlement of Ditwah cyclone victims, the government will need to make adequate preparations for an influx of Indian returnees for which it will need all possible assistance. The minister’s acknowledgement indicates that the government appreciates the work of NGOs when they directly assist people.

The issue of Sri Lankan refugees in India is a legacy of the three-decade long war that induced mass migration of Tamil people to foreign countries. According to widely cited estimates, the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora today exceeds one million and is often placed between 1 and 1.5 million globally, with large communities in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. India, particularly Tamil Nadu, continues to host a significant refugee population. Current figures indicate that approximately 58,000 to 60,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees live in camps in India, with a further 30,000 to 35,000 living outside camps, bringing the total to around 90,000. These numbers have declined over time but remain one of the most visible human legacies of the conflict.

The fact that the government has chosen to make this announcement at this time indicates that it is not attempting to gloss over the human rights issues of the past that continue into the present. Those who suffered victimisation during the war may be encouraged that their concerns remain on the national agenda and have not been forgotten. Apart from those who continue to be refugees in India, there are more than 14,000 complaints of missing persons still under investigation according to the Office on Missing Persons, which has received tens of thousands of complaints since its establishment. There are also unresolved issues of land taken over by the military as high security zones, though some land has been released, and prisoners held in long term detention under the Prevention of Terrorism Act, which the government has pledged to repeal and replace.

Sequenced Response

In addressing the issue of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India, the government is sending a message to the Tamil people that it is not going to gloss over the past. The indications are that the government is sequencing its responses to problems arising from the past. The government faces a range of urgent challenges, some inherited from previous governments, such as war era human rights concerns, and others that have arisen more recently after it took office. The most impactful of these crises are not of its own making. Global economic instability has affected Sri Lanka significantly. The Middle East war has contributed to a shortage of essential fuels and fertilizers worldwide. Sri Lanka is particularly vulnerable to rising fuel prices. Just months prior to these global pressures, Sri Lanka faced severe climate related shocks, including being hit by a cyclone that led to floods and landslides across multiple districts and caused loss of life and extensive damage to property and livelihoods.

From the beginning of its term, the government has been compelled to prioritise economic recovery and corruption linked to the economy, which were central to its electoral mandate. As the International Monetary Fund has emphasised, Sri Lanka must continue reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, reduce debt vulnerabilities and strengthen governance. The economic problems that the government must address are urgent and affect all communities, whether in the north or south, and across Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim populations. These problems cannot be postponed. However, issues such as dealing with the past, holding provincial council elections and reforming the constitution are not experienced as equally urgent by the majority, even though they are of deep importance to minorities. Indeed, the provincial council system was designed to address the concerns of the minorities and a solution to their problems.

Unresolved grievances tend to reappear in new forms when not addressed through political processes. Therefore, they need to be addressed sooner rather than later, even if they are not the most immediate priorities for the government. It must not be forgotten that the ethnic conflict and the three decade long war it generated was the single most destructive blow to the country, greatly diminishing its prospects for rapid economic development. Prolonged conflict reduced investment, diverted public expenditure and weakened institutions. If Sri Lanka’s early leaders had been able to negotiate peacefully and resolve their differences, the country might have fulfilled predictions that it could become the “Switzerland of the East.”

Present Opportunity

The present government has a rare opportunity to address the issues of the past in a way that ensures long term peace and justice. It has a two thirds majority in parliament, giving it the constitutional space to undertake significant reforms. It has also demonstrated a more inclusive approach to ethnic and religious minorities than many earlier governments which either mobilized ethnic nationalism for its own purposes or feared it too much to take political risks to undertake necessary reforms. Public trust in the government, as noted by international observers, remains relatively strong. During her recent visit, IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva stated that “there is a window of opportunity for Sri Lanka,” noting that public trust in the government provides a foundation for reform.

It also appears that decades of public education on democracy, human rights and coexistence have had positive effects. This education, carried out by civil society organisations over several decades, sometimes in support of government initiatives and more often in the face of government opposition, provides a foundation for political reform aimed at justice and reconciliation. Civil society initiatives, inter-ethnic dialogue and rights-based advocacy have contributed to shaping a more informed public about controversial issues such as power-sharing, federalism and accountability for war crimes. The government would do well to expand the appreciation it has deservedly given to OfERR to other NGOs that have dedicated themselves addressing the ethnic and religious mistrust in the country and creating greater social cohesion.

The challenge for the government is to engage in reconciliation without undue delay, even as other pressures continue to grow. Sequencing is necessary, but indefinite postponement carries risks. If this opportunity for conflict resolution is not taken, it may be a long time before another presents itself. Sri Lanka may then continue to underperform economically, remaining an ethnically divided polity, not in open warfare, but constrained by unresolved tensions. The government’s recent reference to Tamil refugees in India is therefore significant. It shows that even while prioritising urgent economic and global challenges, it has not forgotten the past. Sri Lanka has a government with both the mandate and the capacity to address that past in a manner that secures a more stable and just future for all its people.

By Jehan Perera

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Strategic diplomacy at Sea: Reading the signals from Hormuz

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The unfolding tensions and diplomatic manoeuvres around the Strait of Hormuz offer more than a snapshot of regional instability. They reveal a deeper transformation in global statecraft, one where influence is exercised through calibrated engagement rather than outright confrontation. This is strategic diplomacy in its modern form: restrained, calculated, and layered with competing interests.

At first glance, the current developments may appear as routine diplomatic exchanges aimed at preventing escalation. However, beneath the surface lies a complex web of signalling among major and middle powers. The United States seeks to maintain deterrence without triggering an open conflict. Iran aims to resist pressure while avoiding isolation. Meanwhile, China and India, two rising powers with expanding global interests are navigating the situation with careful precision.

China’s position is anchored in economic pragmatism. As a major importer of Gulf energy, Beijing has a direct stake in ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and stable. Any disruption would reverberate through its industrial base and global supply chains. Consequently, China advocates de-escalation and diplomatic resolution. Yet, this is not purely altruistic. Stability serves China’s long-term strategic ambitions, including the protection of its Belt and Road investments and maritime routes. At the same time, Beijing remains alert to India’s growing diplomatic footprint in the region. Should India deepen its engagement with Iran and other Gulf actors, it could gradually reshape the strategic balance in areas traditionally influenced by China.

India’s approach, in contrast, reflects a confident and increasingly sophisticated foreign policy. By engaging Iran directly, while maintaining working relationships with Western powers, New Delhi is positioning itself as a credible intermediary. This is not merely about energy security, though that remains a key driver. It is also about strategic autonomy the ability to act independently in a multipolar world. India’s diplomacy signals that it is no longer a passive player but an active shaper of regional outcomes. Its engagement with Iran, particularly in the context of connectivity and trade routes, underscores its intent to secure long-term strategic access while countering potential encirclement.

Iran, for its part, views the situation through the lens of survival and strategic resilience. Years of sanctions and pressure have shaped a cautious but pragmatic diplomatic posture. Engagement with external actors, including India and China, provides Tehran with avenues to ease isolation and assert relevance. However, Iran’s trust deficit remains significant. Its diplomacy is transactional, focused on immediate gains rather than long-term alignment. The current environment offers opportunities for tactical advantage, but Iran is unlikely to make concessions that could compromise its core strategic objectives.

Even actors on the periphery, such as North Korea, are closely observing these developments. Pyongyang interprets global events through a narrow but consistent framework: regime survival through deterrence. The situation around Iran reinforces its belief that leverage, particularly military capability, is a prerequisite for meaningful negotiation. While North Korea is not directly involved, it draws lessons that may shape its own strategic calculations.

What emerges from these varied perspectives is a clear departure from traditional bloc-based geopolitics. The world is moving towards a more fluid and fragmented order, where alignments are temporary and issue-specific. States cooperate on certain matters while competing with others. This creates a dynamic but unpredictable environment, where misinterpretation and miscalculation remain constant risks.

It is within this evolving context that Sri Lanka’s strategic relevance becomes increasingly visible. The recent visit by the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor, to the Colombo Port; is not a routine diplomatic courtesy call. It is a signal. Ports are no longer just commercial gateways; they are strategic assets embedded in global power competition. A visit of this nature underscores how Sri Lanka’s maritime infrastructure is being viewed through a geopolitical lens particularly in relation to sea lane security, logistics, and regional influence.

Such engagements reflect a broader reality: global powers are not only watching the Strait of Hormuz but are also positioning themselves along the wider Indian Ocean network that connects it. Colombo, situated along one of the busiest east–west shipping routes, becomes part of this extended strategic theatre. The presence and interest of external actors in Sri Lanka’s ports highlight an emerging pattern of influence without overt control a hallmark of modern strategic diplomacy.

For Sri Lanka, these developments are far from abstract. The island’s strategic location along major Indian Ocean shipping routes places it at the intersection of these global currents. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy flows, and any disruption would have immediate consequences for Sri Lanka’s economy, particularly in terms of fuel prices and supply stability.

Moreover, Sri Lanka must manage the competing interests of larger powers operating within its vicinity. India’s expanding regional role, China’s entrenched economic presence, and the growing attention from the United States all converge in the Indian Ocean. This requires a careful balancing act. Aligning too closely with any one power risks alienating others, while inaction could leave Sri Lanka vulnerable to external pressures.

The appropriate response lies in adopting a robust foreign policy that engages all major stakeholders while preserving national autonomy. This involves strengthening diplomatic channels, enhancing maritime security capabilities, and investing in strategic foresight. Sri Lanka must also recognise the growing importance of non-traditional security domains, including cyber threats and information warfare, which increasingly accompany geopolitical competition.

Equally important is the need for internal coherence. Effective diplomacy abroad must be supported by institutional strength at home. Policy consistency, professional expertise, and strategic clarity are essential if Sri Lanka is to navigate an increasingly complex international environment.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz thus serves as both a warning and an opportunity. It highlights the fragility of global systems, but also underscores the potential for skilled diplomacy to manage tensions. For Sri Lanka, the challenge is not merely to observe these developments, but to position itself wisely within them.

In a world where power is no longer exercised solely through force, but through influence and presence, strategic diplomacy becomes not just an option, but a necessity. The nations that succeed will be those that understand this shift now and act with clarity, balance, and foresight.

Mahil Dole is a senior Sri Lankan police officer with over four decades of experience in law enforcement and intelligence. He previously served as Head of the Counter-Terrorism Division of the State Intelligence Service and has conducted extensive interviews with more than 100 suicide cadres linked to terrorist organisations. He is a graduate of the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (Hawaii).

By Mahil Dole
Senior Police Officer (Retd.), Former Head of Counter-Terrorism Division, State Intelligence Service, Sri Lanka

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