Business
CB chief sees negative fallouts from IMF deal
ECONOMYNEXT – Central Bank governor Nivard Cabraal said seeking International Monetary Fund (IMF) help to resolve a debt and forex crisis would lead to currency depreciation and sharply higher interest rates, trimming the public sector and privatization of state enterprises.
However several policy corrections, which are usually in IMF deals are already done, he said.
Sri Lanka has been downgraded to CCC by rating agencies indicating higher risk of default as the country printed money to keep rates in a “monetary stimulus” on top of “fiscal stimulus” and lost foreign reserves as the printed money was exchanged for dollar reserves to maintain the exchange rate.
Ministers of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ruling SLPP coalition has discussed the possibility of the government seeking IMF assistance to resolve the external crisis as it became more difficult to import oil and other goods.
The party had come to power slamming the last administration for going to the IMF, which led to tax hikes.
“If we want, there is no problem going for the IMF. We had gone in 2009. So nobody should think that we hesitate or fear to go,” Cabraal said at a news briefing on Thursday.
“The IMF could tell us to depreciate the rupee, raise the interest rates by 30 percent, 40 percent, 50 percent further, reduce the number of government sector employees, reduce or curtail pension benefits, and sell various state assets.
“These are some conditions they include in their reform agenda.
“Our view is that we do not need that reform agenda at this juncture. Our view is that without going for that, we can pay back our creditors. Though we see some pressure during this time, we know that will ease in the time ahead.”
The last IMF program failed to impose sufficient controls on the central bank giving it enough room to print money under discretionary flexible inflation targeting and triggered a second currency crisis in 2018 within the program leading to an output shock.
It also failed to impose spending controls on the Treasury ‘under so-called revenue based fiscal consolidation’ sans ‘spending based consolidation’ leading to steep rise in government spending and an increase in state sector pension entitlements.
The currency fall which usually comes a under an IMF program leads to a fall in real wages, a consumption fall, higher unemployment and an economic slowdown – the inevitable consequence of monetary and fiscal excesses – which leads to unhappy voters if elections come before growth recovers.
Cabraal, however, said Sri Lanka itself has been already doing what the IMF might prescribe in a policy package.
“The issue is we need to face the debt problem,” Cabraal said. “The main reason for the debt problem is 6.9 billion US dollars had been borrowed as loans via sovereign bonds to this country from 2018 April to 2019 June. Those loans have put a lot of pressure on the country’s debt.”
“So we have decided to do away with that kind of borrowing and reduce them while using some other borrowing methods. That is what we are doing right now. This will be the same advice the IMF will give us. No other advice they will give.”
“Debt restructuring is basically you change from one instrument to another. This has been done with a deep thought and scientific manner. Since we are already doing it, we do not need external help to do that.”
He also said the government has already taken decisions to change maximum retail prices of commodities.
“In some instances, we have removed them which could be told by the IMF.”
The budget for 2022 had already frozen recruitment raised taxes on companies including turnover based taxes and there were no salary hike for state workers except for striking teachers.
However any IMF programme now is likely to require the float of the currency as a prior action to restore foreign exchange markets.
Two groundbreaking reports launched by the Pathfinder Foundation in collaboration with the Australian Trade and Investment Commission have laid out a practical vision for Sri Lanka’s economic future, pinpointing the mineral and clean energy sectors as twin engines for sustainable growth and investment.
The reports, unveiled on December 17 in Colombo, present actionable roadmaps for project developers and technology providers, positioning Sri Lanka as an emerging frontier in the global clean energy and critical minerals supply chain.
Key content from the minerals report:
Sri Lanka’s largely underutilised mineral sector holds significant potential, with resources increasingly vital to global industries. The country boasts high-purity graphite, rare earth elements (REEs), mineral sands, and phosphate – all critical for electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies, and high-tech manufacturing.
While current mineral exports are around USD 389 million, the International Trade Centre estimates a potential of USD 778 million, with primary data suggesting the true figure could reach USD 2 billion. To capture this value, the report stresses moving beyond exporting raw materials to domestic refining and beneficiation.
A key strategic recommendation is deeper regional collaboration, particularly under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). It highlights an opportunity for Sri Lanka to partner with India’s booming automotive and clean energy sectors, where demand for REEs and permanent magnets is soaring. This could involve upstream Indian investment in Sri Lankan REE resources or exports of rare earth oxides for India’s EV, wind, and electronics industries.
Key content from Clean Energy report:
Parallel to its mineral potential, Sri Lanka is pursuing an ambitious transition to clean energy, targeting carbon neutrality by 2050. The country’s renewable energy sector offers a diverse range of investment and trade opportunities for international stakeholders, spanning large-scale utility projects, distributed generation, and service-based collaborations.
Specific opportunities include utility-scale solar and wind projects, offshore wind resource mapping, and rooftop solar in urban corridors. There is also growing momentum for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to stabilise the grid, green hydrogen pilot plants, and the development of net-zero industrial parks powered entirely by renewables.
The reports highlight a powerful synergy: Sri Lanka’s minerals are essential for the very clean technologies it seeks to deploy. For instance, its phosphate can be used in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, while its high-purity quartz is vital for solar-grade silicon.
Australia is identified as a key partner in both sectors. Australian Mining Equipment, Technology, and Services (METS) firms can provide cutting-edge, sustainable mining technology, while Australian expertise in smart grids, BESS, and green hydrogen aligns with Sri Lanka’s long-term energy strategy.
While outlining vast potential, the reports also acknowledge challenges, including regulatory complexities, infrastructure gaps, and the need for enhanced skills development. Proposed solutions include modernising approval processes, developing a national critical minerals strategy, and fostering public-private partnerships.
The consensus from keynote speakers at the event – including Pathfinder Foundation Chairman Bernard Goonetilleke, Australian High Commissioner Matthew Duckworth, and senior representatives from academia, government, and Austrade – was clear. Their collective insight underscored the reports’ central thesis: Sri Lanka is presented with a unique, synergistic opportunity. By strategically developing its mineral wealth and accelerating its clean energy transition in tandem, the nation can attract significant foreign investment, create high-value jobs, and secure a competitive position in the Indo-Pacific’s sustainable economic future.
By Sanath Nanayakkare ✍️
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Prime Lands and Prime Land Residencies to provide up to 100% financing for customers purchasing condominium units or gated houses developed by the Prime Group, demonstrating the Bank’s unwavering commitment to empowering more Sri Lankans to achieve their dream of home ownership.
The agreement enables prospective homeowners to seamlessly access Commercial Bank’s home loan facilities with tripartite agreements involving the developer, the buyer and the Bank. As the market leader in home loans, Commercial Bank brings unmatched expertise and flexibility to borrowers seeking to invest in properties developed by one of Sri Lanka’s most trusted names in real estate.
Commenting on the partnership, S. Ganeshan, Deputy General Manager – Personal Banking at Commercial Bank said: “This agreement with Prime Lands and Prime Land Residencies creates an excellent opportunity for us to expand our housing loan portfolio while enabling more Sri Lankans to realise one of their life goals. Commercial Bank’s strong home loan offering, combined with Prime Group’s reputation as a leading developer, ensures customers benefit from both financial strength and quality of construction.”
The Prime Group, which positions itself as the leader of real estate artistry in Sri Lanka, comprises subsidiaries associated with lands, houses, finance and condominiums. With over 30 years of trust and excellence and a base of more than 300,000 customers, the Group says it is driven by its evergreen vision: ‘Committed to Creating a Better Place on Earth,’ which continues to inspire its passion to deliver homes that bring customers’ dreams to life.
Mahogany Masterpieces, a Sri Lankan luxury furniture brand, has launched the “An Ode to Grain” collection. This showcase honors mahogany’s natural beauty and the brand’s craftsmanship. The philosophy is to let the wood’s grain guide the design, creating timeless pieces that respect the material. The collection includes new architectural elements like architraves, paneling, and corbels, designed to bring lasting warmth and character to interiors.
Visitors can view the full collection at the Mahogany Masterpieces Showroom and Design Studio which is located at No. 87, Dr. Lester James Peiris Mawatha (Dickman’s Road), Colombo – 05. www.mahoganymasterpieces.com
Duffy, Ajaz rip through West Indies as New Zealand seal series 2-0
Financial contributions received for ‘Rebuilding Sri Lanka’ Fund
UNICEF representatives and PM discuss rebuilding schools affected by the Disaster
A few showers may occur in the Uva province and in Ampara, Batticaloa, Matale, Nuwara-Eliya, and Hambantota districts
NMRA laboratory lacks SLAB accreditation
Air quality deteriorating in Sri Lanka
‘Dates have the highest sugar content to fight Coronavirus’
Sunday Island 27 December – Headlines
#SundayIsland 17th December – Headlines
Sunday Island – 28th March
Sunday Island Headlines – 21 March
Sunday Island – 21st February – Headlines
-
Midweek Review6 days agoHow massive Akuregoda defence complex was built with proceeds from sale of Galle Face land to Shangri-La
-
News5 days agoPope fires broadside: ‘The Holy See won’t be a silent bystander to the grave disparities, injustices, and fundamental human rights violations’
-
News5 days agoPakistan hands over 200 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Lanka
-
Business4 days agoUnlocking Sri Lanka’s hidden wealth: A $2 billion mineral opportunity awaits
-
News6 days agoBurnt elephant dies after delayed rescue; activists demand arrests
-
Editorial6 days agoColombo Port facing strategic neglect
-
News4 days agoArmy engineers set up new Nayaru emergency bridge
-
News6 days agoSri Lanka, Romania discuss illegal recruitment, etc.