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13th Amendment, fair political representation, and social-choice theory

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The signing of the Indo-Lanka Accord, which led to the establishment of Provincial Councils.

by Chandre Dharmawardana,
chandre.dharma@yahoo.ca

The TNA is the main political party of the North. S. Shritharan was recently elected its leader and M. A. Sumanthiran, who is regarded by some as being “barely Tamil”, as one Eelamist resident in Canada put it, was sidelined.  Sritharan’s vision, expressed in post-election speeches, demands the merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces; he rejects the 13A as being grossly inadequate to meet the aspirations of the Tamils. The political parties of Gajendra Ponnamblam, and of C. V. Wigneswaran takes an even harder public stand. All tactically reject 13A, even though they rush to India to support 13A when support for 13A weakens in the South. The positions taken by southern politicians regarding 13A are also merely tactical and opportunistic.

Ironically, 13A is already a part of Sri Lanka’s Constitution, with some parts of it implemented, and others in suspense, mainly due to a huge lack of trust across the Northern and Southern political formations. Even the Eastern Tamil leaders do not trust the Northern leaders.

While the minority leaders still seek the chimera of an Indian supervisory role, the majority-community politicians know that strong Indian interventions, even “parippu dropped from air” are no longer a part of the show. President Ranil Wickremasinghe was seated next to Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the latter’s inauguration, while no TNA leader was visible. Meanwhile, the provincial councils themselves have atrophied, with provincial elections not even considered worth the cost, under the current circumstances.

The Northern political leaders rightly believe that any government in Colombo will be a government of the Majority Community and that minority rights will NOT be protected under such a set-up, judging by past history. So, they aspire to have a separate government of their own as the “only effective approach”. However, this approach triggered the past history of communal politics and violence that led to terror and counter-terror. Finally, the TULF leaders, Sinhalese politicians, even the Indian Leader who fathered the 13A, and thousands of innocent civilians got wiped out.

If there is no trust, there can be NO federalism, nor an effective 13A. Even an independent Eelam, separate from a Sinhalé by a physical border is not viable, as the two neighbours will be continually at war, as is the case between India and Pakistan, or across and even within Indian states (e. g. Manipur), even though the “Indian Model”, like 13A, is claimed to resolve these conflicts. Furthermore, such “independent” states will be forced to join up with big powers and become mere pawns of global proxy wars. That is the end of their “self-determination”.

The TNA says, “We don’t trust the majority, so we want our own government; but the minorities who will be under us, i.e., Muslims of the East or any Sinhalese who live in our “exclusive homeland” must trust us. Just forget attacks on Muslims or Sinhalese minorities when the TNA was an LTTE proxy”! This “aspiration” for hegemony by Tamil leaders over other minorities will be rejected by the respective minorities, just as the Tamil leaders reject being ruled by the Majority that they do not trust.

Social-choice theory

How can we equitably allocate agents (or electoral seats) to represent a group of people within a unitary setup (with a total quota of 225 seats), or with subdivided setups (e. g., with provincial councils or federal states with quotas of seats reflecting minority groups)?

This question falls within a class of much studied mathematical problems in game theory, mathematical economics as well as in the theory of social choice. Intellectual giants like John von Neumann and other mathematicians pioneered these studies. However, the most important results relevant to our discussion here came from Blinski and Young as well as from Kenneth Arrow. The latter won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1972 for his theorems on “social-choice theory”.

Blinski and Young proved a theorem showing that any apportionment rule (or representation and devolution rule) that stays within an assigned quota (say, of seats) suffers from what is known as the population apportionment paradox. This states that unless the populations remain absolutely static, even if the minority has a decisively large rate of population growth, the majority still gains more representation (or more power) inexorably! There is NO fair apportionment scheme!

 Blinsky and Young’s result was a surprising “no-go” theorem. However, Arrow’s theorem, formulated in 1951 was even more surprising and counter-intuitive. Arrow laid down five “self-evident” axioms (or rules) about what may be called the “Will of the People” to be represented. For instance, a key rule is that the preferences and aspirations of a group should be chosen only from the group members (and not from outsiders). Another axiom is that the “will of the group” must not be that of one particular person; this is known as the no-dictator rule. The other axioms are similar harmless-looking rules about the group having specific preferences (e.g., favouring a set of religious or cultural traits against another set), or having maverick members who have changed policies in the past on a specific preference, although now in accordance with the “will of the group”.

Arrow’s impossibility theorem

Kenneth Arrow proved that, in spite of the highly democratic and seemingly “fair” formulation of these axioms, no such fair representation is possible. This is known as Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem. This theorem states that mandating the preferences and aspirations of the group cannot be ensured while adhering to usual “democratic” principles of fair voting procedures!

The mathematical conclusion is that a selection of people making decisions for those who elected them can never be a rational or fair process, however wise or benevolent they are! Their decisions will be necessarily autocratic! Naturally, the minorities within any group, be it under the Sinhalese majority in the main government, or under the Tamil majority in the TNA government reigning over the North and the East, will discriminate against the minority in each case.

Every available constitutional representation that satisfies Arrow’s axioms (i.e., common-sense ideas of fairness) is a perverse one. There is no “will of the people” or a democratic way of representing it. This very painful conclusion, reached by mathematicians in the 1950s, has stood all critical attacks on it. For over twenty-two decades, political scientists for whom the concept of the “will of the people” is as sacrosanct as the geocentric universe was to the medieval church attacked it! Instead of disproving Arrow, similar impossibility theorems, no-cloning theorems, etc., have been established in quantum information theory and quantum mechanics.

Devising an electoral scheme is mathematically equivalent to an apportionment scheme. Instead of allocating seats on the basis of population (i.e., “The People”), one may consider allocating “seats” on the basis of votes. This leads to models based on proportional representation (PR) instead of apportionment.

Mathematicians have shown that PR leads to even more serious negative consequences than apportionment. A variety of paradoxes of the Blinsky and Young type have been established. A very serious conclusion is that even the mildest PR system will confer a disproportionate amount of power to the third largest party in parliament! The third largest party becomes the king maker and often comes into a coalition with the second-ranking party to become the government! The validity of these results from game theory in practical politics has been established by studies of the history of governments in Germany, Israel and Denmark where high levels of proportional government have been legislated.

In my opinion, a way around these problems is to abandon electoral methods and return to the method of SORTITION advocated by Aristotle and used in several Hellenic cities during the time of Pericles.

Sortition has been adopted today in various limited ways, especially for local or provincial governments, in Ireland, France, Belgium, Canada and even Mongolia. In the simplest sortition model one arbitrarily selects by lottery a group of people who constitute the parliament. While these legislators last only five or six years, it is the administrative service that persists. The sortition parliament is not claimed to represent the “will of the people”. The lottery may be open to all the people, or only to a selection defined by their public service, education etc., as specified by a parliament chosen initially by simple sortition. That is, the first sortition parliament may enact more elaborate sortition models, but ensuring that the random element implied by sortition is never negated.

The sortition model ensures that the same set of corrupt politicians do not continue to get elected every time by controlling the list of candidates as well as the vote-gathering infrastructure which favours existing parties that have accumulated much wealth, by hook or crook. It also eliminates demagogues as the election is by lottery.

In other words, SORTITION ensures that a “system change” occurs every time. It ensures that political crooks, their henchmen and progeny do not entrench themselves and hold onto power over decades and decades, be it in the North or the South. I had given a discussion of the sortition model in a previous article in the Island (02-01-2023). It may also be accessed via the web (https://thuppahis.com/2023/01/02/crunchtime-resolving-sri-lankas-political-dilemma/ The applicability of the sortition model to the political problems in the USA has been discussed in the Harvard Review of politics (https://harvardpolitics.com/sortition-in-america/).



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Opinion

Significance of Tamil vote in 2024 general election

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Apart from the resounding victory by the NPP, the most significant election outcome is the remarkable change in the voting pattern of the Tamils in the North, the East, and the Central province not to mention Colombo that brought defeat to most of the Tamil political stalwarts like Sithatharan, Sumanthiran, Palani Thigambaram, Mano Ganeshan et al. This is the first time that such a change has happened in a general election where usually the ethnic political parties hold sway over minority votes. It is of vital importance for everybody including Tamil politicians, the present government, international community, hegemonic powers, ultra-nationalists and separatists to understand and correctly interpret this change in the Tamil political fabric.

The decisive factor that was apparent in the pre-election period was the need for a change which manifested in a weaker form at the presidential election that brought in a new president with 42% of the national vote with the majority of Tamils voting against the NPP candidate. In less than two months the whole picture had changed and a majority of Tamils who did not vote for the NPP at the presidential election took the unprecedented step of going against their own ethnic parties and voted for the NPP. Although it appears to be a sudden change of attitude obviously such changes on such a wide scale cannot happen overnight. The need for a system change must have been slowly and steadily growing in the minds of Tamils over a period of time, like it had in the Sinhalese. The latter was obviously weary of suffering under the governments of the two major political parties since independence. The former however had hitherto been loyal to their ethnic parties who pursued divisive communal politics appealing to the ultra-nationalist sentiments of the Tamils. What was the reason for the Tamils to change in this manner?

Presidential election may have shown the Tamils that the Sinhalese had decided to bring about a radical change. This would have been the cue for them to come out into the open and demonstrate the change that has been slowly taking place in their minds. The change that appeared to have taken place in less than two months was probably catalyzed in this manner.

Tamils suffered during the thirty-year war. It is probable that the new generation of Tamils have realised the futility of war and confrontation and decided to chart a different course and deviate from the main sociopolitical stream from the time of independence though there were times of convergence and cooperation albeit of short duration. Independence and universal franchise have driven a wedge between Sinhala and Tamil leaders which was rather unfortunate for they were together in the struggle for Independence. Tamil politicians enjoyed parity of political power and suddenly they realized that their privileged position was in danger due to universal franchise which would make them a minority in the parliament. They could not reconcile with the fact that they were representatives of a minority community. What is most unfortunate is that they could not see the opportunities that were there for them to play a vital role in the development of the whole country. The mistake the Tamil leaders committed at that time was to abandon the opportunity that was available to jointly participate in the central government and contribute to the development of not only the Tamils but also the whole country and instead choose the narrow parochial path of communal politics. This blunder has continued to plague the country and even caused the birth of terrorism and a bloody war.

These historical mistakes must have dawned on the new generation of Tamils who, like the Sinhalese want a change in their lives which could come with economic development rather than ultra-nationalist dogma. Further they may have realized the fact that Tamil ultra-nationalism was flawed, unjust, parochial and does not belong in the modern world. Communal barriers have to be breached to achieve connectivity, interaction and networking which are capable of opening new vistas in the modern electronic era. All communities who have made Sri Lanka their home must unite and develop their country. The absence of this unity may have been one of the reasons for the country to lag behind in economic development and finally end up being bankrupt which would have affected all communities alike. In this regard the Tamils have taken the first step and it is now up to the other communities to suitably respond.

The government must know that the Tamils have significantly contributed to their massive victory. The government must understand what these Tamils who have rejected their own political parties and leaders want. They, too, like the Sinhalese are affected by economic mismanagement and poverty. Their problems are same as those of the Sinhalese majority. All communities are in the same boat. Tamils have realised this truth and would want urgent attention to their immediate needs. Their nutrition, health and education should receive immediate and sufficient attention. Tamils have abandoned their own parties and embraced the governing party expecting urgent redress to their burning problems.

There is a lesson for the international community as well, especially for the imperialist western powers. The latter had made use of the lack of unity among the communities to destabilise the country in pursuance of their geo-political ambitions in the Indian Ocean region. The LTTE was a tool in their hands, and after the demise of its leader, other separatists moved in to fill the vacuum. The western powers must realise the futility of such policies in view of the radical changes taking place within the mind-set of the Tamils. Tamils may no longer see the Sinhalese as their oppressors and the Sinhalese may not harbour the fear that Tamils are demanding a separate country.

It is hoped that the time may come when the Tamils realise that the whole country belongs to all communities and it is their duty to participate in the development of the whole and not just the North and parts of the East. True Tamil national leaders may emerge who would want to share power at the centre rather than at the periphery and contribute to the governing of the whole country. It is hoped that this is the end of divisive communal politics and the beginning of a new era of unity and prosperity.

N. A. de S. Amaratunga

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Opinion

Revolutionary elections

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By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

No doubt, it is the ‘election like no other’ in the ‘country like no other’ that would top the league of revolutionary elections, of which there were three, just this month. Much has been written about two; the one in Sri Lanka and the second in the US but the third, in the UK, had hardly any mention in Sri Lankan media, perhaps, because it was not a general election but the election of the leader of a major political party, which I would come to later.

The NPP/JVP deserves to be congratulated on its unprecedented, massive victory and it is hoped that the new government will succeed. All ‘communal’ parties, save a few, faced humiliating defeats. The NPP won 21 out of 22 districts, the only exception being Batticaloa. Its win in Jaffna sends a clear message to the communal parties, whose leaders have been taking the people of the North for a ride to further their own interests. Do hope the new government makes good use of this golden opportunity to bring about reconciliation.

It is not only the results in the North that gives hope but also from the South. It was gratifying for me to note that my home district Matara, which is predominantly Sinhala, has elected a Tamil MP as well as a Muslim MP. Not only that, out of the 6 NPP MPs elected, the Tamil MP got the second highest and the Muslim MP got the fourth highest preferential votes. A district once well known to elect on the basis of caste and creed, a concept encouraged if not engineered by the Communist Party, has gone a full circle, thanks to another Marxist party! Perhaps, this demonstrates that voters are no longer misled by man-made differences and are achieving a degree of political maturity, which bodes well for the future. Yet another ray of hope for true reconciliation!

As far as the US election is concerned, even the bitterest critic of Donald Trump has to concede that he achieved the impossible, not once but twice. On both occasions, it was not that Trump was selected by the Republican Party but he got the party to rally round him. In fact, Trump started life as a Democrat and was not a professional politician. He achieved fame as a sharp businessman and a TV personality and decided to be president. One man’s ambition succeeding is unprecedented in US history, as far as I am aware. Though Trump won the 2016 election on the collegiate vote, he was almost 300,000 behind Hilary Clinton in the popular vote. In the 2020 election which he lost to Biden, he polled 74,223,975 whereas Biden polled 81,283,501. In the 2024 election though his popular vote increased to only 76,768,490 votes (according to the last count, as counting in US elections is very prolonged), he had a landslide winning 312 collegiate votes. Kamala Harris polled only 74,194,538, staggering 7 million less than Biden. Do these results give credence to Trump’s accusations of vote rigging in the 2020 election, I do not know. When he was portrayed as a bitter loser, no one ever imagined that Trump would have a comeback. Multitude of court cases he faced made the prospect even dimmer. His dramatic win, perhaps, adds weight to his claim that some of these cases were politically motivated.

The other important aspect of the US presidential election is that all polling organisations got their predictions totally wrong. Up to the last moment, it was too close to call they said, but as the counts proceeded, it was obvious that Trump has achieved the impossible again. However, the most important lesson for the rest of the world is that the US voting system is nothing worth emulating!

Whilst the USA is still waiting for the ‘glass ceiling’ to be broken, the UK has had three female prime ministers and recently elected another lady as the leader of a major political party.  Interestingly, it is the Conservative party that seems to be progressive, the Labour Party still waiting to elect a female leader, in spite of two having acted as leader!

Kemi Badenoch, who was elected as the leader by the members of the Conservative Party early this month, is the Leader of the Opposition and may well be next Prime Minister, if the Labour government continues to mess up, as it is doing now. She may well follow Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May and, of course, the disastrous Liz Truss.

Kemi Badenoch’s election is revolutionary in two more aspects. She is the first Black leader. male or female, of a major UK political party. Further, she is the first immigrant to be a leader of a major political party. Though the US constitution stipulates that only a person born in the US could hold the highest political position there is no such stipulation in the UK. If that was so, Boris Johnson would not have been PM, as he was born to British parents in New York, while his father was studying in Columbia University!

Kemi Badenoch’s family is from Nigeria, her father being a GP and her mother a professor of physiology. Theoretically, though she spent the first sixteen years of her life in Nigeria and USA where her mother lectured, she could be classed non-immigrant as her mother travelled to London from Lagos to have her in a private hospital in Wimbledon, to return shortly after the delivery of the baby. In fact, in her first speech in parliament Badenoch declared that “to all intents and purposes, I am a first-generation immigrant”. Whatever it may be, hats-off to the UK for achieving this degree of political maturity, which is hoped we would be able to emulate ultimately.

What a revolution would it be, if a Black immigrant lady became the Prime Minister of the UK!

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Opinion

Key to resilient plantation agriculture in Sri Lanka

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Sustainable soil health:

by Lalin I De Silva

With the escalating impacts of climate change, Sri Lanka’s plantation sector—spanning tea, rubber, coconut, spices, and oil palm—faces critical challenges in maintaining soil health. As fluctuating weather patterns affect nutrient availability and increase erosion, achieving sustainable crop productivity requires rethinking soil management. This article explores why a shift to adaptive soil practices is essential, discussing the role of nutrient management, organic matter enhancement, and precision techniques that can support a climate-resilient future for Sri Lankan planters.

Understanding Soil Health and Climate Adaptation

In Sri Lanka, where agriculture is deeply interwoven with economic stability and cultural heritage, soil is a foundational asset. Healthy soil not only sustains high yields but also contributes to carbon sequestration and water retention. However, climate change introduces frequent rainfall variability, which accelerates nutrient leaching, affects soil structure, and increases erosion risk—especially in sloped plantation areas common in tea production. Understanding the specific nutrient needs of each crop and adapting soil practices accordingly can help mitigate these adverse impacts.

Key Soil Nutrients and Their Importance

The macronutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) play vital roles in crop health, but their optimal levels vary between plantation crops:

Nitrogen (N): Essential for foliage growth, nitrogen requirements are particularly high for tea, which thrives with approximately 20-25 mg/kg. For other crops like coconut and oil palm, nitrogen supports broader canopy development, which is important for resilience against drought.

Phosphorus (P): Phosphorus supports root development, critical in early plant growth and essential for strong, resilient crops. A good level for most plantation soils falls between 10-30 mg/kg, depending on soil type and crop. Coconut, which requires strong roots for water absorption, greatly benefits from adequate phosphorus levels.

Potassium (K): Often called the “quality nutrient,” potassium improves crop resilience and quality. For example, tea thrives with potassium levels of 120-150 mg/kg, while rubber and coconut need slightly higher levels to promote nutrient distribution across the plant structure, supporting resilience during dry spells.

Tailoring Soil Practices for Plantation Resilience

Plantations must adopt region-specific soil management practices to meet crop needs while minimizing environmental impact. Here are some effective techniques for sustainable soil management:

Cover Crops and Erosion Control: By planting cover crops like legumes, farmers can reduce erosion while adding nitrogen to the soil naturally. Cover crops shield soil from heavy rain, reducing topsoil loss and adding organic matter as they decompose, which improves nutrient availability and soil structure over time.

Organic Matter Management: Increasing organic matter in the soil improves moisture retention and overall fertility. Applying compost, mulches, or green manure boosts organic carbon levels, which is particularly beneficial in tropical climates with high decomposition rates. Mulching, for instance, helps regulate soil temperature, retain moisture, and add essential nutrients as it decomposes.

Biochar Application: Biochar, a type of charcoal added to the soil, improves water retention, nutrient availability, and microbial health. In tea estates or high-rainfall areas, biochar acts as a stabilizer, helping the soil retain nutrients that might otherwise be washed away. Its porous structure holds onto moisture, benefiting root health during dry periods.

Precision Fertilisation

Implementing a targeted fertilisation approach ensures the soil receives just the nutrients it needs. Slow-release fertilisers and digital soil sensors reduce nutrient leaching, prevent over-application, and support a balanced nutrient profile. For example, the use of a portable spectrophotometer can measure soil nutrient levels, guiding adjustments that enhance productivity and reduce waste.

Carbon Sequestration Techniques: Practices like agroforestry and low-tillage farming promote carbon storage in the soil, contributing to climate resilience and soil fertility. By integrating trees with crops, agroforestry not only sequesters carbon but also protects against soil erosion and provides shade, which reduces crop stress during high temperatures.

Implementing Soil Testing and Monitoring

For Sri Lankan planters, regular soil testing and monitoring are essential to maintain optimal soil health. Digital tools such as portable pH meters, EC (Electrical Conductivity) meters, and NPK soil test kits provide valuable data on soil composition and health. By regularly testing for pH, organic carbon, and nutrient levels, planters can make informed decisions on crop nutrition and soil amendments. Mapping plantation areas using handheld GPS devices also aids in precision agriculture, allowing farmers to apply fertilizers and water only where necessary, minimizing environmental impact.

Promoting Soil Biodiversity and Microbial Health

Healthy soils host a diverse range of micro organisms, essential for nutrient cycling and disease suppression. Adopting organic inputs and minimising chemical usage help sustain beneficial bacteria, fungi, and earthworms, all of which improve soil structure and fertility. Mycorrhizal fungi, for instance, form symbiotic relationships with plant roots, enhancing phosphorus uptake and strengthening plants against drought stress. Encouraging these organisms through organic farming practices is a vital component of sustainable soil health.

Way Forward: Embracing a Soil-Centric Approach in Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan planters face unique challenges from climate change, but by adopting a soil-centric approach, they can maintain crop yields and enhance environmental resilience. Partnerships with agronomists and value chain consultants can assist in identifying effective practices suited to local soil types and climate conditions. Additionally, government support for sustainable farming incentives and education initiatives would empower farmers to adopt these practices.

Implementing soil-friendly practices at scale requires both knowledge-sharing and community cooperation. Initiatives like training programes in precision agriculture, digital tools for soil monitoring, and organic fertiliser subsidies could be valuable. By aligning these practices with Sri Lanka’s climate resilience goals, the plantation sector can enhance productivity sustainably.

Maintaining healthy soils is not only a matter of crop productivity; it is a defence strategy against the unpredictable impacts of climate change. Through sustainable soil management practices—such as increasing organic matter, precise nutrient application, and encouraging soil biodiversity—Sri Lanka’s planters can create resilient agricultural systems that support long-term economic stability. Embracing these practices will enable the plantation sector to flourish sustainably, preserving the environment while continuing to contribute to the nation’s economy. With a soil-centric approach, the future of Sri Lankan agriculture holds promise for both productivity and resilience in the face of climate change.

Lalin I De Silva is a value chain journalist of www.vivonta.lk, Senior Planter, Agricultural Advisor / Consultant, Secretary General of Ceylon Planters Society, Editor of Ceylon Planters Society Bulletin and freelance journalist.

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