Business
Why the Government Should Increase Tobacco Taxation in the Forthcoming Budget
A Win-Win Strategy:
by Harini Weerasekera
The COVID-19 pandemic has left many economies struggling to revive economic activity and boost growth. Economic stimulus packages of varying sizes, shapes and forms have been disbursed by governments around the world to keep their economies afloat. What this means is that governments of developing countries in particular, face extremely tough fiscal policy choices; in some cases, compelled to spend money that they do not necessarily have.
Sri Lanka is no exception to this. COVID-19 has pushed what was already a high spend-low revenue economy into further fiscal turmoil. IPS has stressed that getting the country’s fiscal house in order is the need of the hour, in order to effectively respond to the pandemic, on top of dealing with an already mounting debt burden.
When government finances are tight, policy solutions that can be leveraged to boost government revenue without threatening growth and which support additional pandemic-related spending in the coming years, are essential. Increasing tobacco taxation is an excellent example.
IPS Study on Tobacco Taxation
A recent study by IPS projects that government tax revenue can be boosted by LKR 37 billion by 2023, if taxes on cigarettes are streamlined and raised in line with inflation. Although the government assumed a policy stance of cutting taxes across the board when they came into power, excise taxation of sin-goods such as cigarettes is one area where it is still politically feasible to raise taxes in order to boost much needed revenue. For example, back in 2019, the government increased excise taxes on tobacco to offset an overall reduction in VAT rates on goods.
This month’s budget is therefore an opportune moment to increase tobacco taxation, which will simultaneously help raise revenue at a critical time for the country, and generate significant and positive health benefits that would flow from reducing smoking.
Why Cigarette Taxation?
Although tax rates on some types of cigarettes in Sri Lanka have been raised in recent years, the most-sold brand of cigarettes in the country remains affordable according to the World Health Organization (WHO) affordability index. Further, the tax structure for cigarettes is not streamlined, and tax policy changes have been implemented in an ad-hoc manner. What this means is that there is further space to reduce cigarette affordability by using appropriate tax policy. This will ease health costs to the government from tobacco related-illness which can then be redirected towards pandemic related health costs, whilst also securing additional tax revenue in these difficult times.
In order to do this, IPS recommends in our latest study, that the government and related institutions deploy an incremental approach to revising cigarette taxes over the next four years (2020-2023). Sri Lanka currently has a five-tier tax structure for cigarettes based on cigarette length, some of which remain affordable and accessible to the young and poor in particular. Adopting a uniform excise tax system that is periodically adjusted for changes in inflation, in line with the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) protocol, will reduce overall affordability of all types of cigarettes.
Implementing these recommendations will result in Sri Lanka’s government revenue from cigarettes increasing by Rs 37 billion by 2023; cigarette consumption reducing from one billion sticks by 2023; and prevention of 140,000 premature deaths from cigarette consumption in the future.
Additionally, a forthcoming study by IPS finds that the net effect of tobacco control policies on national income is positive, as a result of consumers switching their spending from tobacco products to other goods and services.
A Link between Tobacco Taxation and Illicit Trade?
While industry lobbyists, the world over, are resistant to cigarette tax increases, and argue that increased taxes promote illicit tobacco trade and beedi consumption – the evidence shows otherwise. According to WHO FCTC Knowledge Hub research, there is a negative correlation between illicit trade share and cigarette prices, globally (Figure 1). Instead, it is the existence of informal trade channels, easily crossed borders, weak governance, ineffective customs/tax administration, corruption and complicity of producers/importers, among other reasons, that cause large-scale illicit trade of tobacco. Hence, illicit trade should be controlled through organizational changes in tax administration such as more investigations, more tax and customs officers, and technology, rather than by keeping cigarette taxes/prices low.
Similarly, there is concern that beedi consumption has risen due to tax increases on cigarettes. However, the Alcohol and Drug Information Centre (ADIC) trend surveys over the years have found that there is no pattern of switching from cigarettes to beedi in response to cigarette price increases. However, authorities should consider taxing beedis too; avoiding tax increases on cigarettes, on the other hand, will not aid in reducing consumption of either cigarettes or beedis.
Moreover, controlling the consumption of various tobacco products needs to be tackled using different strategies, as outlined by internationally recognized sources such as the WHO.
Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence estimates that 2.3 million bank cards were leaked on the dark web, based on an analysis of data-stealing malware log files from 2023-2024. On average, every 14th infostealer infection results in stolen credit card information, with nearly 26 million devices compromised by infostealers, including more than 9 million in 2024 alone. Kaspersky released its report on the infostealer threat landscape while the technology world gathers at MWC 2025 in Barcelona.
Kaspersky experts estimate that approximately 2,300,000 bank cards have been leaked on the dark web. This conclusion is based on an analysis of the log files from data-stealing malware, dated 2023-2024, that were leaked on the dark web market. While globally the share of leaked cards is well below one percent, 95% of the observed numbers appear technically valid.
Infostealer malware is not only designed to extract financial information, but also credentials, cookies and other valuable user data, which is compiled into log files and then distributed within the dark web underground community. An infostealer can infect a device if a victim unknowingly downloads and runs a malicious file, for example one disguised as legitimate software, such as a game cheat. It can be spread through phishing links, compromised websites, malicious attachments in emails or messengers and various other methods. It targets both personal and corporate devices.
On average, every 14th infostealer infection results in stolen credit card information. Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence experts found that nearly 26 million devices running Windows were infected with various types of infostealers in the past two years.
“The actual number of infected devices is even higher. Cybercriminals often leak stolen data in the form of log files months or even years after the initial infection, and compromised credentials and other information continue to surface on the dark web over time. Therefore, the more time passes, the more infections from previous years we observe. We forecast the total number of devices infected with infostealer malware in 2024 to be between 20 million and 25 million, while for 2023, the estimate ranges between 18 million and 22 million,” says Sergey Shcherbel, expert at Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence.
In 2024, Redline remained the most widespread infostealer, accounting for 34% of the total number of infections.
The most significant surge in 2024 was in infections caused by Risepro, whose share of total infections increased from 1.4% in 2023 to almost 23% in 2024. “RisePro is a growing threat. It was first discovered two years ago but seems to be gaining momentum. The stealer primarily targets banking card details, passwords and cryptocurrency wallet data, and may be spreading under the guise of key generators, cracks for various software and game mods,” explains Sergey Shcherbel. Another rapidly growing stealer is Stealc, which first appeared in 2023 and increased its share from nearly 3% to 13%.
Caterpillar equipment dealer UTE has delivered the country’s largest Cat D8 Track-Type Tractor to NEM Construction Pvt. Ltd., marking a significant milestone in heavy machinery. This delivery strengthens the long-standing partnership between UTE and NEM Construction, which spans over 45 years. The Cat D8 is expected to boost operational efficiency in large-scale projects. As the sole authorized dealer for Caterpillar in Sri Lanka, UTE continues to provide top-tier machinery and after-sales support. The handover is particularly notable as Caterpillar celebrates its 100th anniversary. NEM Construction’s Chairman, Raja Nanayakkara, praised the Cat D8’s superior performance and UTE’s unmatched service and parts support, which have been key to the company’s long-term collaboration. This purchase highlights the continued trust in both Caterpillar and UTE’s expertise in supporting Sri Lanka’s construction industry.
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon’s prowess in comprehensive disclosure of sustainability-related information to stakeholders has won its 2023 Annual Report two top awards at the 2025 Sustainability Reporting Awards presented by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA).
The Bank was adjudged the overall runner-up and the winner in the Banking category at these awards, repeating the achievement of its 2022 Annual Report which was similarly honoured by the ACCA last year.
The ACCA Sustainability Reporting Awards recognise Annual Reports that clearly acknowledge and explain the economic, environmental and social impacts of the business to internal and external stakeholders, demonstrating the organisation’s policies, targets and long-term objectives towards the goal of sustainable development.
Commercial Bank’s 2023 Annual Report also won two Golds, a Silver and a Bronze at CA Sri Lanka’s ‘TAGS’ Awards 2024, excelling in the key aspects recognised by the awards programme which is dedicated to Transparency, Accountability, Governance, and Sustainability – TAGS.
The Bank won the Gold for ‘Corporate Governance Disclosure’ in the Financial Services sector, the Gold for the Best Annual Report among the private sector banks, the Silver for ‘Digitally Transformative Reporting’ across all sectors, and the overall Bronze award for Excellence in Corporate Reporting.
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