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WHY GOTA MUST GO

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By Anura Gunasekera

We are way more powerful when we turn to each other and not on each other, when we celebrate our diversity….and together tear down the mighty walls of injustice ( Cynthia Mckinney- American politician and activist)

Perhaps, by the time this is published, Sri Lanka will have a working government. As it is being written, Sri Lanka has a dysfunctional administration which has failed the country. If the lawmakers do not bury both individual and inter-party differences, elect a working parliamentary group and quickly set in motion a viable recovery strategy, very soon Sri Lanka will be classified as a failed state, because successive regimes have failed the people. As leaders, the Rajapaksa family regimes have contributed heavily, with recent assistance from the Sirisena-Wickramsinghe duo, through indecisiveness, personal conflict and condonation of colossal fraud during the period of the “Yahapalanaya” delusion, to which this writer too subscribed, briefly, for a few euphoric months.

Whilst the fabric of the nation is disintegrating on real-time TV, the lawmakers responsible for this tragic situation have been, for the last three days, trading insults and accusations across the floor of that talk- shop, once the nation’s legislature, but now a haven for the scoundrel and the thief; Apart from nauseatingly pious statements about the imperative of comforting a nation in despair a single constructive proposal is yet to emerge.

The proceedings are a mirror image of the president’s address to the nation of a few weeks ago when, despite floundering helplessly in a morass largely of his own making, he blandly declared that he had nothing to do with it. Whoever wrote that juvenile, simplistic speech with its wish list of unattainable financial goals, also needs a serious reality check; included were two ridiculously contradictory statements, hilarious if not for the desperation of the nation’s condition- ” I accept responsibility for the decisions I take……. This crisis was not created by me”. That typically robotic, emotionless delivery , carried as much credibility as a confession extracted under torture.

Moving back to the events of the day, what is the solution available to the people ? Whilst he is grappling with immediate issues, GR must also understand the why of it. 26 months after being elected president with a massive majority, a popular endorsement reflected in the parliamentary elections which followed, the same millions are now calling for his immediate ouster or resignation. Though the regime in totality features in the citizens’ animosity, it is still largely personal against GR and the Rajapaksa family. It has always been crystal clear that all crucial decisions are made by GR, his siblings, a handful of trusted courtiers and handed down to a legislature of flunkies for unquestioning approval.

Take for example the disastrous edict on organic cultivation; GR chose to go with a personal belief, reportedly urged on by Dr. A. Padeniya- a paediatrician- and Ven Athuraliya Ratana, a Buddhist priest, whilst disregarding the advice, and entreaties, of a large body of agricultural experts and scientists. Perhaps Gnana Akka, the palace sorceress, also approved of it. It will also be recalled that the same Ratana was the architect of the ruinous Glyphosate ban, imposed with such catastrophic consequences during Sirisena’s tenure. These two examples alone re-inforce the need to remove both religion and servile amateurs from governance, a poisonous mixture permanently bubbling in the Rajapaksa cauldron, along with ethno-nationalism, the bogey of minority ascendancy and other related spectres, successfully paraded before the fragile Sinhala- Buddhist mindset.

GR appears to have convinced himself that the problem is simply a shortage of essentials and the daily power outages, and that re-establishing the supply chain will appease a raging nation. There was the immediate cosmetic exercise of reassigning portfolios while dropping brothers Basil, Chamal and nephew Namal from the cabinet, obviously in the belief that a reshuffled dispensation could carry on, with himself and brother Mahinda at the helm.

The reality that Gotabaya refutes is that what the nation is seeking is not just cooking gas, vehicle fuel and assurances of power delivery but, also, a change in the administration of which he, with the power conferred on him by the 20th amendment, is the pivot. The expulsion of the Rajapaksa oligarchy from the governance of the country is a unanimous wish, cutting across race, religion and social and economic divides. The once deified family is being demonized across the country. Gotabaya, who levered himself in to power by brutally divisive politics, dismissing the minorities as being inconsequential as he had the total support of the Sinhala-Buddhist polity, has, by the countrywide chaos his incompetent rule created, finally succeeded in uniting all those divided segments in a common cause; his immediate removal.

Johnston Fernando, Chief Government Whip, hilariously declared that there is no question of the president stepping down as he carries the mandate of 6.9 mn people. When millions of people from across the country have, for weeks, been demanding the man’s resignation, braving extreme weather, serious personal discomfort and the realistic expectation of bodily harm from the police and the armed forces, in what context can one cite a citizens’ mandate ? Even to Johnston’s limited intellect It should be clear that GR’s vote base has become a mirage.

Despite this reality Gotabaya seems determined to stay and, obviously, needs to be levered out politically. The protests are now in the nature of a magnificently passionate Civic Movement and the determination of the nation and its momentum is such, that its inability to achieve the primary purpose may convert it to Civic Unrest or active civil disobedience; a situation which could be catalyzed in to violence with covert assistance from mercenaries allied to the regime. The Avant Garde hand, wielded by GR’s close ally NIssanka Senadhipathi, was linked to the Mirihana violence by Anura Kumara Dissanayake in his April 7 speech in parliament. Given GR’s known appetite for the suppression of dissent, that would be exactly what he is waiting for; the opportunity for a counter by deploying the armed forces. The second stage would be governance in which the military machine overrides civil authority. The cogs are already in place in the mechanism, in the form of former army cronies in key positions in the administration.

Any repression leading to bloodshed may result in driving the movement underground and the emergence of an insurgency, which, unlike the earlier JVP uprisings, would receive the support of people all over the country. John F Kennedy once said, “those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable”.

But no army will be able to quell the wrath of a united nation, the power of a citizens’ movement, which has no political, ethnic or religious boundaries, or any other insular reference points. The outcome of an armed repression of the movement will be an ungovernable nation, the total disintegration of the economy, and the consequent withdrawal of international financial assistance, combined with sanctions. In an earlier writing I spoke of Lebanon and that doomsday scenario is not too far off from Sri Lanka unless, as a first step, the ruler who has lost legitimacy, the moral right to govern, resigns instead of clinging on to power citing a constitutional right. But the ruler who has no moral sense and is therefore unable to understand this reality needs to be ejected.

Despite the lack of unity in the Opposition there is sense in its reluctance to participate in any new form of government with Gotabaya still at its head. But it must also be clear to them that anarchy is a likely scenario unless, within the coming days, it sinks differences and initiates a viable strategy for GR’s removal. Tabling motions without securing a majority within the House will only reinforce GR’s decision to cling on to power. He is the malignancy in the national body and its excision must take place in Parliament, before Gotabaya offers his customary brutal solution to dissent.

Prime Minister Rajapaksa addressed the nation on Monday; a self-righteous, mendacious delivery with his tired, old rhetoric given a different twist, laying the entire blame on the previous regime and the Corona pandemic whilst equating a citizens’ democratic protest to an assault on democracy itself; there was also a request not to humiliate the ” Ranaviru”, of which there was no evidence in any of the protests. Absent was an acknowledgment of the regime’s responsibility to the ongoing collapse or a reassurance to a desperate nation. Instead there was a veiled warning to the protestors, with a reference to the JVP insurrections and the then state response; the younger brother’s ethos voiced by the elder sibling. He was a menacing Don Vito Corleone, addressing the convocation of the Five Families, implying violent repression if his family position is threatened. MR has thrown down the gauntlet and made the Family intentions clear to the nation.

What is taking place is a non-political citizens’ movement. It is the agitated heartbeat of a nation in turmoil, Sri Lanka’s Bastille moment. But the incredible energy generated by the people must be harnessed, before it loses its integrity by being hitched to an engine with a specific political agenda. In the despair of a people there is also an opportunity for a new beginning for the country, to usher in a different governance in which systems work for the people; in which the regime stands accountable to the nation for its conduct, with an effective mechanism for the punishment for the dishonesty of the elected, and for the excision of the systemic corruption and the impunity of the powerful, pervasive across successive regimes. This is a turning point and may also be our finest hour since independence. Future generations should be able to reflect on the events of today and be thankful to their ancestors, for making Sri Lanka a better country for them to live in.

There is hope for a new dawn for this country but that light will not emerge unless the Rajapaksa star is first extinguished from the horizon. That is an imperative and the primary task before the legislature and the nation.



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Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

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“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

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After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could  not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references  – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

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The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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