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Why APEC Cannot Save Asia?

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There is no rosy picture on the horizon for Asia, nor for much of the planet. West Asia will continue to burn, its embers fanned by the possibility of fresh escalations with Iran, even as the Gaza war drags towards a brutal close by the first quarter of next year. Ukraine remains the grand theatre for warmongers, with NATO edging towards deeper intervention against Russia, threatening to drag the world into a legal and moral limbo from which there may be no escape. Latin America fractures under its own contradictions: Argentina sinks into crisis under Javier Milei’s economic experiments, while Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Brazil’s Lula da Silva, and others tilt eastwards in defiance of Washington’s grip.

Venezuela faces a year of turmoil that could destabilize the hemisphere further. Across Asia and Africa, the story is eerily similar: conflicts manufactured and sustained by global powers bleed from Myanmar to Sudan, while the natural world delivers its own retribution. Southern Africa was brought to its knees by the worst drought in a century last year—27 million lives shattered, 21 million children left malnourished. This year offers no reprieve. Western aid cuts and cynical geopolitical horse-trading have condemned millions to famine. Against this backdrop of systemic crisis, where collapse outweighs stability, APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) leaders will meet in South Korea at the end of this month.

The meeting comes not as a ceremonial summit of economic integration but as a battlefield of contradictions. APEC, founded in 1989 as a loose forum to liberalise trade and strengthen economic ties, has always been a stage for larger geopolitical manoeuvring. Yet in 2025, with the world economy teetering between inflationary shocks and protectionist instincts, APEC stands naked: a bloc that commands nearly 62 per cent of global GDP and 47 per cent of trade, yet cannot shield its own members from the very crises it was created to soften.

The headlines at this meeting will, of course, be stolen by the possible encounter between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Two men, neither strangers to brinkmanship, now cast as reluctant architects of the region’s fragile stability. One presides over a country where property markets collapse like dominos and demographics wither; the other seeks to mask fiscal black holes by resorting to his most cherished mantra—tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. Both understand that to lose face in Seoul is to surrender leverage at home.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has already sounded the alarm. Its September outlook paints a bleaker picture than April’s, with regional growth trimmed to 4.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.5 per cent in 2026. Developing Asia, excluding China, is barely better at five per cent and 4.8 per cent across the two years. Inflation is forecast to ease to 1.7 per cent next year, only to edge back up to 2.1 per cent in 2026. These are not catastrophic figures in isolation, but when juxtaposed against the needs of billions across Asia, they are a flashing red light.

Mongolia is expected to slow from 6.6 per cent growth this year to 5.7 per cent, while Korea stagnates at a meagre 1.6 per cent. Even India, the supposed bright star, is forecast to dip to 6.5 per cent by 2026. The Pacific islands—those sacrificial canaries of the climate crisis—face an even more erratic future: Fiji shrinking to 3.0 per cent growth in 2026, Kiribati barely scraping 3.3 per cent. These numbers are not abstractions; they are food prices, factory jobs, remittances, the viability of small states.

APEC, however, will sell optimism. Its Economic Policy Report for 2024 emphasizes financial inclusion, digitization, and credit guarantees for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The language is compelling—extending banking to the rural poor, ensuring women and indigenous groups have access to credit, unleashing AI-powered digital wallets to empower the elderly and the disabled. Yet beneath the rhetoric lies an old problem: the gap between aspiration and implementation. In Vietnam, QR-code adoption has indeed leapt forward, creating millions of digital accounts. But in Papua New Guinea, half the population remains outside formal banking. In the Philippines, credit guarantee schemes exist, but MSMEs still face suffocating interest rates. Financial literacy campaigns run in nearly every APEC economy, but scams and mis-selling scandals proliferate at faster speed. To speak of inclusion without addressing predation is not reform but deception.

The Seoul meeting is being billed by diplomats as a “reset moment” for US–China relations. Washington insiders whisper that Trump, under fire for the cost of his second-term trade war, will seek to project both toughness and pragmatism. His tariffs, sometimes exceeding 20 per cent on Chinese goods, have crushed US farmers: soybean exports to China fell by more than half this year, sorghum sales by 97 per cent. The American Soybean Association openly voices frustration, warning that growers may abandon fields if a deal is not reached. China, meanwhile, has no incentive to concede on intellectual property or data sovereignty over TikTok’s prized algorithm. Xi will arrive in Seoul projecting calm, but his message will be pointed: lift the tariffs, or relations stagnate.

The truth is that APEC has long been paralyzed by these very rivalries. Few recall that in 1999, its leaders had to cancel their summit in Auckland for fear of anti-globalization protests. Or that in 2018, the Papua New Guinea meeting collapsed without a joint communiqué—the first time in its history—because the US and China clashed over trade language. Even today, when officials champion “open regionalism”, they quietly admit that binding agreements are impossible. Instead, APEC has been reduced to incremental capacity-building workshops, financial literacy tool kits, and pilot projects. These matter, but they are crumbs compared to the storm its members face.

The stakes, then, are not about communiqués or photo-ops but about survival. For the United States, the ability to maintain its alliances in Asia depends on positioning China as the perennial rival, the looming threat that justifies security pacts from Tokyo to Manila. For China, survival means ensuring its slowdown does not become systemic collapse. For smaller states—Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru, Papua New Guinea—the danger is irrelevance, their economies buffeted by tariffs they did not impose, climate shocks they did not cause, and financial contagion they did not spark.

And yet, amid this bleak tableau, the truth is undeniable: APEC is failing. Its voluntary, non-binding ethos has become a shield for inaction. It speaks of inclusivity while its own members cut aid to drought-stricken African states. It praises resilience while allowing global supply chains to be weaponized. It trumpets free trade while tolerating the rise of protectionist tit-for-tats that make a mockery of its founding principles. The Seoul meeting, then, risks becoming another exercise in managed decline: leaders speaking in warm tones while their economies drift towards cold realities.

But perhaps the real danger is deeper. By clinging to the fantasy that technocratic fixes—digital wallets, credit guarantees, workshops on women’s entrepreneurship—can substitute for structural shifts, APEC risks becoming complicit in the erosion of the very stability it seeks. Without a coordinated stance on tariffs, debt restructuring, and climate financing, financial inclusion will be cosmetic at best. Without political will to resist great power rivalry, the forum will remain a hostage to US–China dynamics. Therefore, who can deny that history may yet judge the Seoul summit as a squandered moment of consequence?

by Nilantha Ilangamuwa ✍️

 



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The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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OPA seminar examines Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and growth pathways

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(L to R) Dr Achinthya Koswatte, Anushan Kapilan, Dr Harsha Aturupane, Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President, OPA and moderator of the discussion, and Eng Chamil Edirimuny, General Secretary, OPA, at the head table.

A seminar, “Sri Lanka’s Economic Crossroads: Navigating Recovery, Resilience and Growth” was recently held by the Organisation of Professional Associations of Sri Lanka (OPA) at the OPA Auditorium, bringing together economists, OPA members, and professionals from diverse fields for an insightful discussion on Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and future growth prospects.

The event was held under the patronage of Jayantha Gallehewa, President of the OPA, and was jointly organised by the National Issues Committee (NIC) and the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee of the OPA. The event reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to advancing professional excellence, fostering insightful intellectual engagement, facilitating interdisciplinary knowledge exchange and creating a constructive platform for informed dialogue on issues of national importance.

The panel of speakers comprised Dr. Harsha Aturupane, Lead Economist and Programme Leader for Human Development at the World Bank for Sri Lanka and the Maldives; Dr. Achinthya Koswatta, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Open University of Sri Lanka, and Anushan Kapilan, Lead Economist at Verité Research.

In his welcome address, the President of the OPA emphasised that Sri Lanka was at a critical juncture in its economic recovery journey where sustained reforms, effective implementation, and collective national commitment are essential to achieving long-term stability, resilience and inclusive growth. He noted that the country had experienced one of the most severe economic crises in its history with the economy contracting by 7.8 percent in 2022 and a further 11.5 percent in 2023, resulting in significant economic and social challenges.

Delivering his introductory remarks Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee, underscored the need to move beyond short-term economic stabilisation towards a comprehensive agenda of structural transformation. He observed that the economic crisis had revealed deep-rooted weaknesses within the economy, including persistent fiscal pressures, rising public debt, foreign exchange limitations, and insufficient diversification of the export base. He stressed that addressing these challenges through strategic reforms, institutional strengthening and long-term economic planning would be essential to establishing a more resilient and competitive economy.

While acknowledging recent positive developments, including improved inflation management, tourism recovery and signs of economic stabilisation, Wijeyaratne stressed the need to advance reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline, enhancing productivity, improving competitiveness, developing human capital and reinforcing governance and institutional effectiveness.

He further highlighted the important role of professionals, businesses, academia and other stakeholders in contributing to evidence-based dialogue and supporting Sri Lanka’s journey towards a resilient, inclusive and sustainable economic future.

Delivering the keynote presentation, Dr. Harsha Aturupane provided a comprehensive assessment of Sri Lanka’s economic prospects within the broader context of global economic transformation. He argued that Sri Lanka functioned as a small open economy whose performance is significantly influenced by developments in the global marketplace. External factors could not be controlled, and the country must strengthen its domestic capacity and resilience to respond effectively to international economic shifts, he noted.

Tracing the evolution of global economic systems, Dr. Aturupane highlighted the transition from ideological divisions between state-controlled and market-oriented economies towards increasingly pragmatic approaches focused on growth, competitiveness and development. He noted that Sri Lanka’s own economic journey reflects a similar evolution, with contemporary policy debates now centred on practical solutions for sustainable economic progress.

The presentation also examined the transformative impact of globalisation. Dr. Aturupane observed that global economic integration had enabled several East Asian economies, including South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to achieve remarkable economic advancement through export-led growth strategies. Sri Lanka similarly benefited from this process through the expansion of its apparel industry and increased integration into global value chains.

Turning to Sri Lanka’s recovery programme, Dr. Aturupane emphasised that the ongoing stabilisation process should be viewed as a national programme supported by the International Monetary Fund rather than solely as an IMF initiative. He observed that strong worker remittances, improved tourism earnings, enhanced government revenue mobilisation and prudent import management have contributed significantly to economic stabilisation.

Despite this progress, he cautioned that rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and meeting future debt obligations remain major challenges. He underscored the need to strengthen export performance, attract investment and generate sustainable foreign exchange earnings to ensure long-term economic resilience.

The discussion also focused on monetary stability, inflation management and exchange-rate policy. Dr. Aturupane stressed that maintaining price stability was fundamental to sustainable growth and household welfare, while sound monetary policy remains essential for preserving economic confidence.

Looking beyond stabilisation, he argued that Sri Lanka must transition towards a broader economic transformation agenda. Sustainable growth, he noted, will depend on expanding productive capacity through investment, technological advancement, innovation, skills development and structural reforms.

Among the key constraints identified was the high cost of energy, which continues to affect competitiveness and investment attractiveness. Dr. Aturupane emphasised the importance of improving efficiency and affordability within the energy sector to enhance Sri Lanka’s business environment.

He further highlighted the social dimensions of the crisis, noting the rise in poverty and economic vulnerability among households. Strengthening social protection systems and ensuring inclusive growth, he argued, must remain central components of the national development agenda.

Another critical challenge identified was Sri Lanka’s demographic transition. With an ageing population, outward migration and evolving labour market dynamics, the country is increasingly confronting labour shortages in several sectors. Dr. Aturupane suggested that greater automation, increased labour-force participation and strategic workforce planning would be necessary to address these emerging realities.

Concluding his presentation, he emphasised the need to improve governance, strengthen institutions, enhance competitiveness and create an enabling environment for private sector investment. Sri Lanka’s future success, he noted, will depend on its ability to move decisively beyond crisis management towards a development model founded on resilience, innovation, productivity and inclusive growth.

Dr. Achinthya Koswatta reiterated the importance of policy consistency and predictability in fostering investment and industrial development. She observed that frequent policy changes create uncertainty and discourage long-term investment decisions, whereas stable and coherent policy frameworks build confidence and support sustainable economic transformation.

Meanwhile, Anushan Kapilan highlighted the substantial progress achieved in restoring macroeconomic stability following the recent crisis. He noted significant improvements in fiscal performance, including increased government revenue, reduced reliance on debt financing and a historically low fiscal deficit.

He further observed that public debt levels are declining faster than anticipated, economic growth has exceeded expectations and inflation has been brought under control more rapidly than forecast. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the recovery remains uneven, particularly within the industrial sector and that many households have yet to experience a meaningful improvement in living standards.

The seminar was expertly coordinated by Eng. Chamil Edirimuni, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee, while the technical moderation and interactive discussion session were facilitated by Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee.

The event was attended by Tisara De Silva, President-Elect of the OPA, Eng. Ravi Rupasinghe, General Secretary, Past Presidents, members of the Executive Council, representatives of the General Forum and professionals representing a wide range of disciplines.

The seminar concluded with a vibrant exchange of ideas and perspectives, reaffirming the importance of evidence-based policy dialogue, institutional collaboration and collective national commitment in advancing Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and sustainable growth.

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Her roots run deep in Sri Lanka

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Samantha Kay: Now based in the UK Samantha’s biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women Whenever she visits Sri Lanka, she says she loves spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa She released a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts

Yes, for UK-based presenter and artiste Samantha Kay, home is where the heart – and the roots – are. And her roots run deep in Sri Lanka.

In an exclusive interview with The Island, Samantha says “I’m proud to be Sri Lankan. My mum is from Kandy and my dad is from Colombo, so Sri Lanka has always held a very special place in my heart.

“Whenever I visit Sri Lanka, I love spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa. It’s somewhere I always feel connected to my roots and completely at peace.”

Now living in Bournemouth, on the south coast of England, where, she says, she is lucky to be close to some of the UK’s most beautiful beaches, including the iconic Sandbanks, Samantha has built a career that refuses to fit into one box.

She is a radio presenter, podcast host, singer-songwriter, personal trainer and life coach.

“I genuinely love the variety because every role allows me to connect with people and, hopefully, make a positive difference in someone’s day.”

Of course, music has taken her far.

One of her proudest achievements, she says, was releasing a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts.

She also reached the final stages of The X Factor and performed at Wembley Stadium in front of thousands.

Beyond music, Samantha competed in bikini bodybuilding across the UK, winning several titles. “It taught me discipline, resilience and self-belief,” she recalls.

Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women. Her podcast encourages people to live life on their own terms rather than feeling pressured to follow society’s expectations.

Says Samantha: “Whether someone is single, changing careers, travelling solo or simply trying to find their purpose, I want them to know that it’s never too late to create a life that feels authentic. If you’ve ever felt like you don’t fit into the box, maybe you were never meant to.”

Samantha Kay also spent a year in Dubai, performing at five-star hotels, including FIVE, and coaching at the iconic outdoor gym on Palm Jumeirah.

“I taught strength and conditioning classes, and hosted wellness retreats, combining my passion for music, health and inspiring others.”

However, with family matters calling her back to the UK, she made the choice to return. “Family comes first,” she says.

Looking ahead, Samantha plans to grow her radio and podcast work, release more music, and expand her wellness retreats.

“My biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves,” she says.

“Wherever my career takes me, I hope to continue inspiring others to live with courage, kindness and authenticity, while never forgetting my Sri Lankan roots.”

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