Who trumped Trump?

No, it wasn’t Biden, or the Democratic Party – it was Trump himself and Covid.

When the Democrats have finished dancing in the street, and celebrating their ‘great’ victory, there is a lot they must reflect on. This should really have been, as predicted, a cake-walk, if not a landslide, to the Democrats instead of a nail-biting affair. Now the inclination would be to brand Trump as a mad man, a bad man, an aberration, a nasty dream which, thank God, has come and gone. If they do so and go on believing it was a ‘great’ victory and a full endorsement by the people, they would be making a big mistake – the same kind of mistake they made in 2016 and ever since.

What does a man have to do, to make sure he loses? Insult all around him, sack anyone who disagrees with him, run a most dysfunctional White House apparatus, offer bribes to foreign leaders and, in the end, dismiss a raging pandemic as a ‘passing thing, and don’t worry, it will be alright in the summer’? And, yet, this man comes very close to being re-elected – in spite of having a very nice and decent man as his opponent.

WHY? This is the question the Democrats never bothered to ask since the shock defeat of 2016. Their behaviour has been petty and irresponsible. They wasted 3 ½ years (and lots of money) attacking Trump personally and trying to get him impeached. Instead, they should have reflected: “Why did we lose? Where did we go wrong? What did we miss? How do we beat him, politically? How do we fight him on policies?”

If they cared to ask, the answers are simple and obvious. The electorate was tired of ‘more of the same’ by the same people. The silent majority felt they were not listened to by either established party. They had had enough of the same old boring self-serving establishment. So the flamboyant outsider rides in: he speaks their language, seems to understand their concerns and priorities, promises to do the very things they wanted and to shake up the old establishment. HE is the man they were waiting for.

What if he is a rude, brassy, big-headed womanizer? Who cares? They simply wanted someone who gets the job done.

The average American is very nationalistic. They are proud of their country – the flag is venerated. They do not want to see America being pushed around and taken for granted. Trump hit the right button with his ‘Make America Great Again’ message.

They do not want a President for the world, but for the USA. They are tired of the US trying to be the world’s policeman, and of seeing their kids coming home in body bags fighting in pointless wars.

They do not want to see the country being ‘swamped’ by illegal economic migrants, masquerading as refugees; or to see the homeland security compromised by ‘imported’ terrorists.

They like to stand on their own feet. They want work and are proud to work. They do not want to depend on handouts and view disparagingly and disdainfully at those who do. They are not very high on ‘social justice’ (‘I am alright, Jack’) and resent their hard-earned money being taxed and ‘lavished’ on those too lazy to work.

(Whether WE agree with these sentiments is neither here nor there.)

This is the typical American psyche, which the Democratic Party dismally failed to read, or understand. Looking back, it is not a surprise that Trump won in 2016.

Since then, the Democrats have lived in denial. While they were concentrating on ‘how to get him impeached?’ Trump was busy doing the things he promised, albeit in a bull in a china shop fashion.

Promises and Actions:

Let us forget the man for a moment and concentrate objectively on what he promised and what he delivered:

· Reduce company taxes and red tape, thus stimulate the economy and produce growth

He cut the company taxes from Obama’s punitive 35% to a reasonable 21%. Companies which left the country returned with fresh investment and jobs.

GDP grew consistently from 2016 to 2019 at an average of 2.5% per year, compared to 1.7% under Obama, from 2008 to 2016 ()

Due to Covid (understandably), the Growth rate took a plunge in the first two quarters of 2020 (-5% and -31.4%). But made a dramatic recovery to a record high in Q3 +33.1% ()

Unemployment rates among the Whites fell from 4.5%, in 2016, to 3% in 2020, and even more dramatically for the Blacks, from 9% to 5.5%. (). For Black women it reached a record low figure of 4.4% (CNN Business – not the most Trump-friendly site)

· Stand up to China

He put up tariffs against cheap imports from China and the detractors cried, “Trade war! Reciprocal tariffs! Job losses!” Trump said, “Trade war? Bring it on! We can’t lose. We are already losing billions!”.

In the end, none of the above-mentioned happened. Instead, the trade deficit FELL from 396.0 billion USD to 365.8. ()

· Control immigration

He did not ‘ban all Muslims’ as he promised in the campaign trail. Presumably, he was persuaded that this was a crass idea, and settled for the more practical one of introducing severe restrictions for countries blacklisted by Homeland Security.

Nor did he ‘build a wall’; funds were blocked by the Congress. But he increased control at the Southern border and stood up to the threat of ‘invasion by the army of caravans of refugees’. Every sensible person knows ‘refugee’ is a euphemism for an economic migrant. While it is true that their plight must be pathetic, no US President could echo Merkel (“Let them come”) and hope to be reelected.

In the event, illegal immigration to the US fell from 84,988, in 2016, to 29,916 in 2019. ()

Significantly, while shootings, stabbings and beheadings were going on in Europe, there were no Islamic inspired terrorist incidents on American soil.

· The world’s policeman?

He did not start new ‘foreign wars’, unlike his predecessors. He was forced to deal with ISIS, which he did.

He was sick of America being taken for a ride by its NATO allies. ‘Cough up your dues or else’, he said rather rudely. They grumbled and mumbled, but eventually complied.

North Korean leader Kim had been making threatening noises towards S. Korea ever since he came to power. Nobody dared to confront him, being wary of his nuclear weapons, real or imagined. When Trump ‘took him on’, the world feared the clash of TWO mad men would lead to a nuclear war.

Then Trump did the unexpected and hit the white charm button, instead of the red one. As a result, Kim may not have halted his nuclear weapons programme, but the S Koreans can now sleep more soundly. More importantly, for the first time, in half a century, South Koreans were able to visit their long lost relatives in the North and vice versa.

(In my opinion, this is the greatest achievement of Trump. The media gave him no credit and dismissed the famous handshake as a publicity stunt. Had Obama done it, he would have been hailed as a true world leader and a great man of peace.)

There are other aspects of Trumpism, which are not so savory.

He tried to repeal Obamacare, but was prevented by legal action. He does not believe in climate change, and came out of the Paris accord. (In his defense, these were part of his manifesto.)

And then, there is the man and his manner. Where would one start?!

Still, by January 2020 Trump stood unassailable. There was no one in the Democratic landscape who could have challenged him.

Then came Covid and effectively saved the Democratic campaign.

Trump shot himself in the foot by not taking it seriously. As he was pelting his own version of ‘alternative facts’ about it, making fun of people for wearing masks and organizing rallies with no mask-wearing, nil social distancing, people could SEE their friends and relations dying around them. This is what turned the voters against him. They preferred a mild-mannered old uncle who was predictable and dependable, if not very exciting.

They had had enough ‘excitement’.

BUT, Biden and the Democratic establishment are well advised to:

Dump Trump by all means, but NOT TRUMPISM.

Otherwise, they would be in line for another rude shock, in four years’ time.

Dr ASOKA WEERAKKODY

Colombo