Whither UK?

By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

The ‘British Bombshell’, some of us were praying for, unfortunately never materialised! Had Rishi Sunak been elected the leader of the Conservative Party on 5th September, it would have been a bombshell of unimaginable proportions: a politician of Indian origin becoming the British Prime Minister! In fact, it would have been a double-whammy for the former ‘Colonial Ruler’ – as India overtook the UK as the fifth largest economy only the previous day. Times are changing fast and the East is beginning to dominate the world; it is only a matter of time before China overtakes the US as the world’s largest economy, if it has not already done so. But that is another story.

Liz Truss was lucky. Perhaps, not as lucky as Ranil Wickremesinghe, but believers in astrology would surely claim that they have similar horoscopes! No one expected RW to be president and, similarly, Liz Truss was never the front runner when the contest started to find a leader for the British Conservatives, following the exit of disgraced Boris Johnson. Just like Ranil, Liz Trust too is not the people’s choice: far from it, as I will show.

When Boris was forced to resign for violating the rules he himself introduced during the pandemic, the Conservative Party started the two-stage process of electing the new leader who would become PM automatically. The first stage consisted of five rounds of voting by Conservative MPs, eliminating the lowest polling contender/s at each stage. There were eight contenders, and at every stage Rishi Sunak topped the poll. Liz Trust was the distant third in the first four rounds, but became second in the last round, most unexpectedly.

It was left for the party members to choose the leader, from the top two voted by MPs. From 21 July to 3 September, Rishi and Liz took part in TV debates, in addition to a number of hustings held around the country to woo the voters. In a country of 66 million people, ultimately it was around 180,000 conservative members who were choosing the next PM! From the outset, pollsters were predicting a landslide victory for Liz Truss which, in a way is understandable as herd-mentality reigns supreme even in humans. However, the result was closer than expected, though it was a convincing victory for Liz Truss who polled 81,326 votes, whereas Rishi Sunak’s tally was 60,399. This, no doubt, was due to the superior performance of Rishi in the hustings. Further, the economic programme he proposed was far more pragmatic; tackling inflation, not tax cuts as proposed by Liz Truss.

In view of her advancing years, Her Majesty was unable to return to Buckingham Palace. Therefore, breaking tradition, Boris had to travel to Balmoral Castle in Scotland to tender his resignation, and for Liz Truss to receive the invitation from the Queen to form a new government, which she did in double -quick time. Her return to Downing Street was delayed by the British weather and, after addressing the nation from outside No.10, she set about shaping her new Cabinet.

Within hours it became pretty obvious that there was a total purge of Rishi Sunak supporters, and those who supported her and were close to Liz Trust have been handsomely rewarded. One such beneficiary is our own Ranil Jayawardena, who was fortunate enough to be a minister in one of her previous departments. He is the new Secretary of State for the Environment, Rural Affairs and Food. He is the first British Cabinet Minister of Sri Lankan origin and we should be proud of his achievement. Well done, Ranil. Congratulations!

To her credit, Liz Truss’ Cabinet is the most diverse in British political history and it is very significant that, for the first time, a white-male is not occupying any of the four greatest offices of state. Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor and James Cleverly, Foreign Secretary are Black, whilst Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary is of Indian origin. Although her father is originally from Goa, she is a practising Buddhist, who took her oath of office, as Attorney General in Boris Johnson’s cabinet, on the Dhammapada. Of the 31 members of her cabinet, 10 are women including Therese Coffee who is the Deputy PM and Health Secretary.

Whilst Liz Truss deserves congratulations for very successfully showcasing the talented ethnic diversity of modern Britain, she has made no attempt to unite the party. In fact, she has done just the opposite. Further, her economic policies are cause for concern. The current severe economic problems UK faces, largely due to the continuing war in Ukraine, are not likely to improve, as she is as enthusiastic as Boris about the Ukrainian war. On her first day in office, she accepted an invitation from President Zelensky to visit Ukraine!

In the UK, gas and electricity prices tripled in March and are due to triple again in October. Inflation, which had been under 2% for a very long time, was 10% in July, and is progressively increasing. It is feared that many may have to choose between fuel and food in the winter, and the number of families that are dependent on food banks is progressively increasing. Although the situation is not anywhere near that in Sri Lanka, Britain is heading in the same direction.

Truss has promised to reverse the tax increases Rishi Sunak introduced for the next year, when he was Chancellor. In fact, she went further and promised tax cuts. To alleviate energy poverty, Rishi planned a tax on the windfall profits of energy companies. Liz Truss opposed this, stating that making profits was conservative policy! When Rishi Sunak offered financial support to the needy, Liz Truss opposed saying handouts were not conservative policy but reversed her stand during the campaign, as she met stiff opposition. In fact, she is well known for U-turns, the best instance being Brexit; she was a strong Remainer but now says she fully supports Brexit. Apparently, she made a mistake being misled by faulty projections from the Treasury! She made so many U-turns that in a TV debate, the compere, having enumerated about ten U-turns, said “Will the real Liz Truss, please stand up!”, to the loud laughter of the audience.

For tax cuts coupled with increased spending, she will have to borrow more and more. No doubt it will add to the inflationary pressure. Looks as if the UK is heading the same way Sri Lanka has done for years. The way things are, it is very likely Liz Truss will lose the next general election due in 2024, even if she does not do too badly, as Conservatives have been in power for 14 years. We will have a labour government for five years and what it will do, nobody knows! Whether Rishi Sunak will replace Liz Truss as Conservative leader after the next election defeat, and become the first Indian origin PM of UK subsequently, only time will tell. Nothing is impossible but variables in politics are unfathomable!