Features
When will the Gang of Four be held accountable for their irresponsible decisions?
by Sanjeewa Jayaweera
Most living in Sri Lanka feel like they have got into the boxing ring with Muhammad Ali. The ferocious punches thrown regularly are taking their toll, with most either on their knees or on the canvas. The final punch that will knock us out seems inevitable, but the question is when?
The pounding started initially with queues to buy milk powder for children, which then got extended to buying cooking gas, then to long power cuts, and now to queues extending several kilometres to buy petrol, diesel, and kerosene. Along the journey of suffering, we have also been penalized with hyperinflation. The saying “it never rains but it pours” seems so accurate.
The country is facing a humanitarian catastrophe of a magnitude not previously experienced. Most foreign commentators say, “Sri Lanka is facing the worst economic crisis since 1948.” In a release, the World Food Programme (WFP), the world’s largest humanitarian organization, stated, “An estimated 4.9 million people – 22 per cent of the population – are currently food-insecure and require humanitarian assistance. Reduced domestic agricultural production, scarcity of foreign exchange reserves and depreciation of the local currency have caused food shortages and a spike in the cost of living, which is limiting people’s access to healthy and affordable meals. The economic crisis will push families into hunger and poverty – some for the first time – adding to the half a million people who the World Bank estimates have fallen below the poverty line because of the pandemic.”
The latest WFP assessment reveals that 86 per cent of families are buying cheaper, less nutritious food, eating less and, in some cases, skipping meals altogether. Before the economic crisis and the pandemic, malnutrition rates across Sri Lanka were already high. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Sri Lankan women and children suffered from far higher rates of malnutrition than most other middle-income countries: 17 per cent of children aged under five were too short because of stunting, and 15 per cent were too thin for their height (wasted). The current economic crisis will likely aggravate this further.”
The peaceful uprising, predominantly by the youth referred to as the “Aragalaya”, and the violence that erupted on May 9 resulted in the resignation of the Prime Minister and the cabinet. Thankfully, quite a few unsavoury characters are no longer in the cabinet and have remained mainly underground, although a few are making occasional media appearances to test the waters. A few less savoury but still abject failures of the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime have managed to get back into the cabinet. It is a paradox that a person who led his party to political oblivion and lost his seat is now the Prime Minister. So much for the will of the people!
However, my article is about the architects of our economic Armageddon. In a previous article, I identified them as Nivard Cabraal , P B Jayasundera , S.R. Attygalle and W D Lakshman and referred to them as the Gang of Four (G4). I have consistently advocated for the G4 to be charged and prosecuted for their actions that I would call criminal.
I am glad that recently a Fundamental Rights (FR) petition has been filed in the Supreme Court (SC) seeking appropriate action against those responsible for the prevailing economic crisis in the country, including the G4. One must hope that the SC will commence hearing the case on a priority basis and arrive at a verdict as soon as possible because most people I talk to say, “These fellows should be taken to Galle Face and be mercilessly whipped!” Although I don’t subscribe such drastic action, I understand their anger.
A few weeks back, the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) called the G4 for a hearing to ascertain the reasons for the economic collapse. Unfortunately, I have not been able to view the entire proceedings of the hearing as only a 15-minute video is available on YouTube. In that clip, Nandalal Weerasinghe, the incumbent Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, in an apparent snide remark aimed at Attygalle, said, “Responsible Government officials should refrain from engaging in politics and that the difference between a politician and an official should be properly recognized.”
It must be recalled that Attygalle was appointed as the Treasury Secretary in haste by the Mahinda Rajapaksa(MR) administration during the short-lived constitutional crisis in 2018. Some will also remember how MR immediately appointed Kapila Chandrasena as the CEO of SriLankan Airlines but had to quickly rescind the appointment due to public backlash. It was only subsequently revealed that Chandrasena’s wife had been paid US $ 2 million by Airbus as a bribe.
The belief is that many of the appointments made by MR appear to have been based on friendship and loyalty as opposed to competence. Therefore, it might be difficult for Attygalle to convince too many that he is not politically aligned with the Rajapaksas.
When questioned about the tax cuts that resulted in a significant loss of revenue to the government, Attygalle said that due to the commencement of the covid pandemic, it was not possible to pass judgment on whether the experiment of reducing taxes was correct. However, it does not need an Einstein to predict that a country grappling with a chronic budget deficit and a balance of payments crisis would get into severe economic difficulties due to such irresponsible decisions.
I highlighted my concern over several of the tax proposals in an article written by me called “Sri Lanka’s Tax Conundrum” published in the Sunday Island of January 12, 2020. Although I am no economist, my two and half decades of working in Sri Lanka, mainly as a Chief Financial Officer in several hotels, manufacturing and retail businesses, have given me sufficient knowledge and exposure to raise concerns.
The tax cuts entailed the reduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) to 8% from 15%, reduction of corporate tax for manufacturing companies to 18% from 28%, abolishing the 2.5% Nation Building Tax, the increase in the taxable supply threshold for VAT from Rs. 12 million to Rs. 300 million, the increase in single-person tax-free allowance to Rs. 3 million from Rs. 1.2 million together with significant widening of tax slabs and reduction of rates resulting in the highest rate coming down to 18% from 24%.
All these changes were done with no projection of how much tax revenue will be lost. Neither was there any comment about how the government intended to bridge the revenue deficit. It was all so reckless and irresponsible.
The international credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings, reacted immediately and, in a release, stated that tax concessions granted are “credit negative” and revised the outlook on Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable.
These agencies are independent and skilled in their assessments. However, our Treasury Secretary (Attygalle) and the Central Bank Governor (Lakshman) released statements sharply rebuking the Fitch statement. In fact, in a TV chat show, he accused the international credit agencies of being politically biased and being part of an international conspiracy against GOSL! Furthermore, every subsequent downgrade of our credit ratings drew a sharp rebuke from Attygalle, Lakshman and Cabraal, questioning the motives of such downgrades.
For those of us who had engaged credit rating agencies on behalf of the companies we worked for, such criticisms were not valid and were downright stupid. Given the critical role that international rating agencies play, commonsense dictated that even if there is disagreement, there was a need for a far more diplomatic engagement and consensus building than releasing strongly worded rebukes and questioning their motives. The arrogance and the stupidity of the G4 are stunning.
In addition, in their infinite wisdom, the GOSL also decided that the PAYE tax at source previously collected from employers and Withholding Tax (WHT) from interest income paid by banks and financial institutions to individuals should be abolished. To say that this was a stupid and irresponsible decision is being polite.
In my article of January 12, 2020, I published a table from the Department of Inland Revenue Performance Report for 2018 setting out statistics of low compliance by businesses and individuals when filing their tax returns from 2013-14. I stated, “In such a scenario, expecting individuals to be compliant with their tax returns and payment of quarterly tax is being optimistic.”
I believe the architect of the above changes was none other than PBJ. When he was the Treasury Secretary during the period 2010 – 15, at many private sector forums, he said, “I have told the IRD to stop worrying about collecting PAYE taxes as the collection is so small.” However, he also stated, “If government servants are exempt from income tax, why should the private sector employees pay tax?” The end result was that many of us had our income tax files closed by the IRD, which was way back in 2011!
The decision to print money under both Lakshman and Cabraal led a former deputy governor of the CBSL to state that “Lakshman has turned the CBSL to a printing press.” It is believed that the G4 and others in charge of economic policy were disciples of the highly controversial Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Many independent economists raised concerns and predicted that such action would lead to hyperinflation. Abraal arrogantly refuted these concerns.
The Island of April 27, 2021 quotes Cabraal as follows “State Minister of Money and Capital Markets Ajith Nivard Cabraal said yesterday that there was no relationship between money printing by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the depreciation of the local rupee in the foreign currency market. Minister Cabraal commented while responding to questions during an interview on Swarnawahini television. When asked whether the value of the Sri Lanka rupee showed a negative correlation to a surge in money printing by the Central Bank as the Opposition claimed, the state minister replied, “Generally, people say it may be because they don’t know. The issue is when those that claim to be in the know of these matters also say the same thing.”
The G4 also pursued a policy of keeping interest rates well below the inflation rate. This was purported to encourage borrowing. This ludicrous policy resulted in depositors being able to negotiate higher rates for their US Dollar deposits than for their LKR deposits! One of the first actions of the new Governor was to increase the treasury bill interest rates significantly. It is a tried and tested formula to raise interest rates to curtail demand and reduce inflation. Currently, the world over, nearly all central banks have resorted to this policy. It seems that G4 are the only exception.
The decision to peg the Lankan Rupee to the US Dollar at 200 for a considerable period against the advice of many independent economists and bankers has had a debilitating impact on our economy. Undoubtedly, this has resulted in a burgeoning black/ grey market where the rate differential was significant. In addition, this has led to a substantial decrease in the receipt of remittances by Sri Lankans working overseas and also by exporters who may be keeping the funds overseas in anticipation of a devaluation. We all are fully aware of the pain now endured by a lack of dollars in the country.
Having held on to the US Dollar to LKR 200 for too long, the Monetary Board under the chairmanship of Cabraal recklessly let go of the peg resulting in a steep depreciation of the LKR by nearly 80% over just two months. This was despite the IMF’s explicit warning that any peg relaxing needs to be done carefully and systematically. A couple of members of the former monetary board have stated that Cabraal unilaterally decided to abandon the peg. This is being disputed by him, claiming that it was a collective decision. Whether it was collective or unilateral, Cabraal needs to bear complete responsibility for this reckless decision that has upended the lives of millions of our people. Lastly, I must say that my personal opinion is that the members of the Monetary Board who objected to the policy decisions of Cabraal should have resigned and made their reasons public at the time. To claim that to have resigned would have been cowardly is unacceptable.
Cabraal has recently released several public statements in which he has attempted to exonerate himself. He has stated that even now, the exchange rate is being pegged, and money is still being printed. Yes, no doubt. However, the damage done in the last two years is so immense that it is impossible to stop the rot immediately. As the saying goes, it is like riding a tiger and not being able to get off. That is the country’s predicament.
I believe the COPF meeting ended with another scheduled follow-up meeting. There has been no news of any further deliberations involving the G4. I doubt whether anything of value emanates from these deliberations. In the last couple of months, the Committee of Public Enterprises (COPE) reviews, Chaired by Professor Charita Herath, have made headlines over how poorly the state-owned enterprises are being administered and managed. However, for me, they are just theatrics as most such disclosures have been included in the Auditor General’s reports of such enterprises and have been in the public domain for quite some time. It is just that no one bothered to read such reports.
Undoubtedly, the G4 need to be charged and prosecuted for bringing this country and its people to its knees. Our lifestyle has been taken back several decades. As stated in the WFP report, millions of our people will starve and be malnourished. The youth of our country, referred to as the future, do not see any future, and most are in a mad scramble to leave the country.
The President, PM and the Cabinet are equally responsible for this dastardly state of affairs. Still, for me, the G4 bears the greater responsibility in that, as so-called experts, they failed, and their failure is due to sheer arrogance and their reckless decision to experiment with the lives of millions of people.
For me, the comment made by MP M A Sumanthiran when addressing the G4 at the COPF meeting is relevant in meting out punishment to those responsible for the current situation in our country. He said, “The former minister of finance Mangala Samaraweera, who was a fashion designer and not an economist, predicted in October 2019 that the tax proposals of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as set out in his manifesto would result in an express train to bankruptcy, default and a Greek-style financial crisis.” He rebuked the G4, saying that their so-called expertise in economic management could not foresee what a fashion designer was able to!
That is precisely my conclusion too. This is a man-made disaster, and it is a travesty of justice that those responsible are still not behind bars whilst the people of this country are on their knees.
Features
The CPC’s decisive role in China’s rise to economic superpower
[Translation from the original Sinhala speech delivered at the 105th anniversary celebration of the Communist Party of China, organised by the CGTN Sinhala Service and hosted by the Communist Party of Sri Lanka. Watch full speech. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v* C90V4qY7iGQ]
Before the MoU between the United States and Iran was signed, President Trump let slip something crucial at the G7 meeting in France. When he was asked how Iran’s enriched uranium was to be removed from the country, Trump said that the enrichment facility had been placed beneath a mountain by the Iranian government but US B2 bombers caved-in the mountain itself, burying the uranium under its rubble, making it almost impossible to retrieve. He claimed that the United States was the only country in the world which had the capacity to retrieve it, pausing momentarily and adding “and China”.
So, by President Trump’s admission, this impossible task could be handled by only two countries on the planet: the US or China.
China arrived at this point of development, not by having been a colonial power for centuries like the UK and much of Western Europe. Nor by transnational corporations extracting resources for many decades from around the world. Not by establishing over hundreds of military bases all over the globe. But today, even the US accepts that China has now reached the status of a “peer competitor”.
Some would say that China is a civilisational state, and was able to do so because of nationalism built on their ancient civilisation. But it is while this same civilisation was in place that Genghis Khan’s Mongols were able to breach the Great Wall, enter China and conquer it. It is during this same civilisation that Britain was able to use its warships’ cannons to force China to buy and consume opium (‘the Opium Wars’). Therefore, the great and rapid rise of China is not purely attributable to its ancient civilisation.
China’s economic development has eliminated absolute poverty within a short period of 40 years, for the first time in the economic history of the world and done so without a history of colonialism.
So how did China achieve this miracle and when did this happen?
The initial efforts were under the leadership of Sun Yat-Sen, who founded the Guomindang, a patriotic, modernising, progressive party. His party was supported by Lenin but the character of that party completely changed after his death. In 1926 the party was an honorary member of the Executive Committee of the Communist International, but in 1927, under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek, they collaborated with the colonial powers and foreign capitalists based in China to turn on and massacre the Communist Party of China in Shanghai and Canton.
We cannot conclude that the Guomindang party was the driver of the rise of China, because they were unable to protect China from Japan’s war of aggression against it (1937).
Mao Zedong
That task could only be achieved by the Communist Party of China (CPC) which was born in 1921, 105 years ago. Among the founders of that party was young Mao Zedong. Mao became the leader of the Communist Party during 7th Congress in Zunyi in 1935.
So how did the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) initiate and steer the rise of China to its current Great Power status?
The secret of its success can be grasped by understanding the CPC through three major periods of its history, under the leaderships respectively of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping.
In September 1959, Mao Zedong himself explained the secret of China’s success, in an address to the Military Commission of the Central Committee of the CPC. Mao explained that if the political and military lines are correct, then you will receive all that you don’t have, such as cadre, people, weapons and eventually power. But if the political and military lines are incorrect, you will lose all that you have– cadre, the people, weapons and power.
Therefore, the secret which is revealed is that of the correct line, i.e. correct thinking; the thought process. The Chinese Communist Party has never claimed that they always had the correct line of thinking from its inception through to the present day. According to the official history of the party, there were at least 11 struggles between ‘two lines’ in the history of the party.
That’s how we know that there were struggles against Chen Du Xiu’s ‘rightist deviation’ and Li LiSan’s and Wang Ming’s ultra-left lines. The people were informed about these struggles through the published writings and speeches of Mao and other leaders throughout the history of the party. The CPC didn’t attempt to hide the line-struggles.
Mao was not only a great political leader, but also a great military leader, philosopher and poet. He taught that in order to arrive at the correct line; one has to correctly identify contradictions; distinguish between antagonistic contradictions (with the enemy) and non-antagonistic contradictions (among friends); recognise the primary and secondary contradictions; understand the main and secondary aspects of the contradiction and how the secondary becomes the primary and vice versa. It is according to this philosophical methodology that the correct line could be established.
For example, when Japan invaded China, the main enemy became this external aggressor. But when there was no external threat, the CPC taught that the main enemy was the comprador capitalists, bureaucrat capitalists and semi-colonialism. The ‘comprador capitalist’ class is the intermediary class between the imperialist power and the country; the agent of colonialism.
Mao and the CPC also recognised the role of the ‘national bourgeoisie’. This is the nationalist capitalist class that stood for a national industrialisation and the national market, and had some contradictions with colonialism. One cannot achieve a victory without distinguishing between these different factions and strata of the capitalists. One cannot embrace the comprador capitalists and/or bureaucrat-capitalists in order to develop a country. That was not the way China achieved its victories.
The Chinese Communist Party understood the contradictions correctly, and when there was an incorrect understanding of the contradictions, they fearlessly engaged in ‘line-struggles’ and ensured the correct line prevailed. It is in 1935 that the CPC under the leadership of Mao arrived at last, at the correct line. Even after that there were struggles of rectification, as in 1942.
The Countryside and the Peasantry
The great victories during Mao’s period were the victory in the struggle for national liberation by defeating Japan, and the peasant-based revolution. An important feature of Mao’s thinking was that in countries like ours, in the global south, the primary force was the rural peasantry. Without considering the rural peasantry as the main force, one cannot arrive at the correct line. This is the reason that while India is a great economic power, China has become an economic superpower. Why? Because there are no semi-feudal residues of casteism among the peasantry in China unlike in India. This is because the national liberation struggle of the CPC had as its
main force, the rural peasantry and its main arena, the countryside.
Mao Zedong recognized clearly the reality of China at the time. He said it was a semi-feudal, semi-colonized country. Why semi-colonized? Because all of China was colonized not by one colonial power but different parts of the country, especially the coastal ports and cities, were dominated by different foreign powers. This was done through China’s comprador- bureaucratic capitalist class.
Having put an end to all these challenges, the foundation for the China we see today was laid by Mao Zedong. On October 1st 1949, addressing the people at a meeting to celebrate the victory of the Chinese Revolution and the liberation of China, the first sentence he uttered was “The Chinese people have stood up!”
Deng Xiaoping
The second period was of Deng Xiaoping. During the armed people’s revolution in China, there was a huge province-wide liberated zone under Deng. The pragmatic economic policies he implemented in that province were different from the policies adopted in other liberated zones under other CPC leaders. What he had was a model of economics that enabled and provided opportunities for the rural areas and the peasantry to grow prosperous.
Decades after the Revolution Deng was expelled from power but Zhou Enlai rehabilitated him. When he assumed the CPC leadership there were three great contributions that Deng made. First, he introduced an objective historical analysis of Chairman Mao to the party and the country. He didn’t completely reject Mao the way that the Soviet Communist Party did to Stalin, nor did he say that Mao was holy and infallible. He didn’t maintain a cult of Mao but didn’t negate him.
He followed Mao method regarding Stalin. Mao said that Stalin got more things right than wrong– 70% right and 30% wrong. Deng did a similar analysis of Mao. Because of that balanced perspective China was able to move forward taking the best from the past and eliminating what was bad. This was publicized widely, not limited to secret meetings inside the party. The Central Committee Resolution passed at the Party Congress in 1981 is available as a book, which analyses the errors made in the period encompassing the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution and the rue of the ultra-left Gang of Four.
In economics, the first thing Deng did was to implement policies enabling the rural peasantry to become wealthy. The enriched peasantry in turn deposited their savings in state banks. The state then was able to invest those savings for the leap in its industrial development.
His second step was to open the coastal areas to foreign capital. In this, he was encouraged by Lee Kuan Yew, during his 1978 visit to Singapore. Lee said to him, if the Singaporeans who originated from China’s poor fishing communities can transform their economy from Third World to First, it would be not be difficult for you and your comrades from the educated Chinese elite from the cities including Beijing, to do so. Deng took this advice into account.
Xi Jinping and Globalization
The third great period in the history of China led by the CPC is the on-going period of Xi Jin Ping. There are many things one can say about this period but I will draw out just one lesson: the question of globalization. Now, in Sri Lanka as well as in many other countries, there is a leftist denunciation of globalization and an anti-globalization movement. Yet the Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels recognizes and applauds globalization by capitalism and the bourgeoisie.
However, Xi Jinping offers a new perspective. He is against the inequity and unfairness of the prevailing system of globalization. He says China stands for globalization, but offers the Belt and Road project of globalization, which is very different to colonial, neocolonial and neo-liberal globalization. It is a developmental project in which China is prepared to invest in the infrastructure development of countries.
In Sri Lanka one group is opposed to globalization, but when they obtain state-power, rush to embrace it as it is in the neoliberal version! Another group is partial to neoliberal globalization but their neoliberal version of globalization disregards the protection of sovereignty, and agrees to demands of bridges and channels to neighboring big countries. People are opposed to this kind of anti-national, unpatriotic globalization. Even in Britain, people were opposed to this, hence Brexit, Britian’s exit from the European Union.
Under President Xi, a powerful, important and modern conceptual intervention has been made, offering a more balanced, more equitable world order and an alternative globalization project. It is a balanced, multipolar globalization.
In my presentation, I’ve outlined the paradigmatic thinking in these three great periods of the Communist Party of China founded 105 years ago, that drove the unique economic miracle of China and its rapid rise to ‘peer competitor’ status with the USA.
by Dr Dayan Jayatilleka
Features
Household economic friction and hidden pressures on Sri Lanka’s fixed-income middle class
Beyond macroeconomic stability:
Beyond the Headline Numbers
Sri Lanka’s recovery from the economic crisis has been accompanied by encouraging improvements in several macroeconomic indicators. Inflation has declined significantly from the unprecedented levels experienced during the crisis, shortages of essential goods have largely disappeared, foreign exchange conditions have improved and greater economic stability has gradually returned. These achievements deserve recognition because restoring macroeconomic stability is an essential foundation for sustainable economic recovery. Stable prices create confidence for investment, business planning and long-term development. Yet for many Sri Lankans who depend on fixed monthly salaries, one important question remains: if the economy is recovering, why does maintaining a reasonable standard of living still feel increasingly difficult?
The answer is not that inflation statistics are misleading. Inflation measures changes in the general price level and remains one of the country’s most important macroeconomic indicators. The challenge is that households experience the economy differently from national statistics. They experience it through the markets they enter every day. Buying food, paying utility bills, obtaining healthcare, educating children, maintaining homes and vehicles, accessing digital services required for work, and purchasing numerous everyday services determine whether improvements in the national economy are genuinely reflected in household welfare. In other words, macroeconomic recovery reaches households through markets.
Household Economic Friction
For many fixed-income households, these markets have become increasingly difficult to navigate. While prices of many retail goods are clearly displayed, a considerable share of household expenditure occurs in service markets where prices are neither standardised nor easily comparable. Vehicle servicing, household repairs, personal care services, private healthcare, tuition and numerous other essential services frequently operate without clear reference prices, making it difficult to judge whether the amount charged represents a reasonable price. The burden extends beyond the money eventually spent. Families increasingly devote time and mental effort to comparing prices, evaluating alternatives, judging quality, searching for reliable service providers, seeking recommendations from friends and relatives, travelling between businesses and postponing decisions until they feel sufficiently confident and deciding how best to allocate their limited household budgets. For working households balancing professional responsibilities with family commitments, these activities consume valuable time and mental effort. Together, these hidden costs create what may be described as household economic friction—the cumulative burden arising from market uncertainty, uneven price transmission, quality uncertainty and the limited ability of fixed-income households to adjust their incomes as rapidly as markets change. These hidden costs are rarely reflected in economic statistics, yet they have become an increasingly important part of everyday economic life.
This uncertainty becomes more visible whenever fuel or electricity prices change. Higher energy costs are naturally expected to increase the cost of producing goods and delivering services. However, the way these costs are passed on to consumers is often uneven. Similar businesses may respond quite differently to the same increase in energy costs, resulting in price adjustments that are difficult for consumers to anticipate or understand. Combined with regional differences in prices and varying service standards, this makes household budgeting increasingly uncertain even when family incomes remain unchanged.
Price, however, is only one part of the decision-making process. Households are ultimately searching for value rather than simply the lowest price. Yet in many markets it is difficult to assess quality before making a purchase. Fresh food may differ in quality despite similar prices, the durability of a vehicle repair becomes evident only after the work is completed, and many household services rely on professional expertise that consumers cannot easily evaluate beforehand. Paying more therefore does not always guarantee receiving better value.
Why Household Economic Friction Matters
The capacity to respond by increasing household income is also becoming increasingly constrained. Unlike businesses that can adjust prices or entrepreneurs who may diversify their income sources, most fixed-income professionals have limited flexibility to generate additional earnings. Many already work in occupations with demanding responsibilities, leaving little time or energy for supplementary economic activities. Even where additional employment or small business opportunities are possible, weaker consumer demand, rising operating costs and increased competition have reduced the viability of many income-generating ventures. Moreover, many professionals possess valuable knowledge, technical skills and experience, yet converting this human capital into supplementary income is often constrained by institutional responsibilities, professional commitments and prevailing economic conditions.
Pursuing additional income may also require sacrificing time that would otherwise be devoted to family responsibilities, rest or professional development. Consequently, for many fixed-income households, adjustment occurs primarily through changes in expenditure rather than increases in income. Teachers, university academics, nurses, engineers, government officers, bank employees and many other professionals generally adapt by purchasing smaller quantities of relatively expensive items while substituting cheaper alternatives where possible, scrutinising discretionary spending more carefully, and extending the life of household equipment rather than replacing.
The consequences of these adjustments are often gradual and therefore easy to overlook. Decisions to postpone building repairs or home expansions, defer vehicle maintenance, delay household investments, or reduce spending on recreation and leisure activities may appear to be household rational decisions. Collectively, however, these decisions reduce demand for a wide range of local industries and services. What begins as prudent household budgeting can gradually influence broader patterns of economic activity, illustrating that the effects of household economic friction extend well beyond individual family budgets and into the productive capacity of the economy.
Sri Lanka’s fixed-income professionals represent a substantial share of the country’s human capital. Teachers educate future generations, university academics generate knowledge, healthcare professionals provide essential services, engineers maintain infrastructure, and public servants support the institutions upon which economic and social development depend. Their contribution cannot be measured solely by salaries or employment statistics; it is reflected in the quality, efficiency and continuity of the services they provide.
When sustained professional effort is no longer accompanied by a corresponding improvement in household living standards, maintaining motivation, investing in professional development, accepting additional responsibilities and consistently delivering high-quality work become progressively more challenging. Although many professionals continue to serve with dedication and commitment, persistent financial pressure may gradually influence organisational performance, service quality and institutional effectiveness—effects that are rarely reflected in conventional macroeconomic indicators.
The discussion surrounding Sri Lanka’s skilled workforce has understandably focused on migration during recent years. While outward migration deserves attention, equal consideration should be given to those who have chosen to remain and continue contributing through their professions. Retaining experienced teachers, researchers, healthcare workers, engineers and public servants is not merely a labour market issue. These professionals represent a valuable stock of human capital whose knowledge, experience and continued commitment are essential to Sri Lanka’s long-term development. Creating conditions that enable these professionals to maintain reasonable living standards and confidence in their future strengthens not only individual wellbeing but also national resilience.
The Next Phase of Recovery
Recognising these challenges does not diminish the importance of macroeconomic stabilisation. On the contrary, restoring stability has created the opportunity to address the next generation of economic reforms. The focus can now expand beyond restoring stability to improving the quality and efficiency of the markets through which households experience the economy every day.
Several practical measures deserve consideration. Improving price transparency in service markets would enable consumers to make more informed decisions while encouraging fair competition among businesses. Strengthening consumer access to reliable market information and improving quality assurance mechanisms would reduce uncertainty and increase confidence in everyday transactions. These measures would not require extensive market intervention; rather, they would help markets function more efficiently by reducing information gaps between buyers and sellers.
Periodic reviews of work-related allowances and professional support mechanisms would also help ensure that institutional arrangements evolve alongside changing patterns of work and living costs. The changing nature of professional work also deserves attention. Such reviews would help ensure that evolving workplace requirements remain aligned with the resources needed to perform those responsibilities effectively.
Equally important is recognising that improvements in household welfare cannot rely solely on periodic salary revisions. Well-functioning markets, transparent pricing, informed consumers, fair competition and efficient institutions all contribute to determining how effectively fixed incomes are translated into everyday living standards. Strengthening these foundations benefits households, businesses and the wider economy alike.
Sri Lanka has made remarkable progress in restoring macroeconomic stability under exceptionally difficult circumstances, and that achievement deserves recognition. Macroeconomic stability provides the foundation for recovery, but households ultimately judge economic progress through the markets they encounter every day. The next phase of recovery should therefore focus on strengthening the transparency, efficiency and reliability of those markets so that economic progress is experienced not only in national statistics but also in the everyday lives of Sri Lankan families. At the same time, this progress should strengthen and support the people who continue to invest their skills and careers in Sri Lanka. Safeguarding this valuable stock of human capital is not simply a matter of improving household welfare; it is an investment in sustaining the knowledge, commitment and productivity upon which the country’s long-term development depends.
About the Author
Kapila Chinthaka Premarathne is the Head of the Department of Agricultural Systems and a Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the Faculty of Agriculture, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka.
by Kapila Chinthaka Premarathne
Features
Recurring dengue epidemics: A commando operation needed
A university student at Ruhuna has died of dengue recently, yet another young life was lost while officials trot out the same tired clichés about “clean premises” and “public responsibility.” This ritualistic blameshifting has become the drunken gibberish of a health system that refuses to confront its own failure. Every death is treated as an unfortunate accident rather than the predictable outcome of chronic successive governmental paralysis.
I have lived through this nightmare personally. In Galle, two schoolchildren from the same family died some years ago, triggering public fury so intense that roads were blocked and tyres burned. I do not condone the chaos, but I understand it. When you raise children in a dengue-stricken district, fear becomes a daily companion. I mosquitoproofed my home decades before it became fashionable, drenched my children in citronella, shut windows at 4:30 p.m., and became a nuisance to my own family, but I refused to apologise for protecting them. Today my daughter, once the toddler I guarded obsessively, is a postgraduate trainee in Community Medicine after doing her bit as an MOH fighting dengue in the deep interior. I am proud beyond words.
The tragedies never stopped. I still remember the day a friend rushed his daughter to me, when I was surgeon Teaching Hospital, Karapitiya, misdiagnosed with appendicitis. She had classic dengue warning signs, headache, lymphocytic shift, early thrombocytopenia and absolutely no clinical signs on the part of the abdominal wall overlying the appendix. I referred her urgently, but inexperience elsewhere cost her life. She died in Colombo after three days in the ICU of a well-known private hospital. That was 1988. The story is unchanged.
Sri Lanka’s dengue burden has only worsened.
* 2023: over 80,000 cases and over 50 deaths.
* 2024: more than 90,000 cases, with spikes in Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kandy, and Batticaloa.
* 2026 (to date): already 53,000+ cases, with the Epidemiology Unit warning of another major surge after the monsoon.
These numbers fluctuate, but the pattern is constant: epidemics every year, preventable deaths every year, excuses every year.
The official narrative blames urbanisation, four viral serotypes, climate change, and “public negligence.” The truth is simpler and more damning: Sri Lanka has never implemented a rational, scientific, sustained dengue eradication programme. The attitude is defeatist, dispassionate, and bureaucratically comatose.
History shows what works. In the mid 20th century, Aedes aegypti was eliminated from 27 countries in the Americas through coordinated militarystyle operations. Cuba remains the modern example, dengue-free for years because of relentless, structured, repetitive vector control. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka continues to rely on punitive measures and sermonising PHIs. Punishment has never eradicated a mosquito anywhere on earth.
What we need is not rocket science it is willpower.
A National Commando-Style Operation
Sri Lanka’s 14,000+ Grama Niladhari Divisions can be systematically cleaned. Each GND is roughly 4.5 km² manageable in a single day with 200 volunteers. The plan is simple:
* Simultaneous nationwide cleanups to prevent mosquitoes escaping to neighbouring areas.(Aedes Egypti can fly up to a kilometre).
* Fumigation of heavily infested zones.
* Repetition every three weeks, initially, then quarterly.
* Central steering committees in each GND with MOHs, PHIs, local officials, and private sector partners.
* Government reimbursement for equipment.
* A declared public holiday for national mobilisation.
* Continuous public education.
* Mandatory mosquito net isolation of all suspected dengue patients to prevent mosquitoes from acquiring the virus.
If mosquito numbers fall below a critical threshold, epidemics will cease. But this requires discipline, repetition, and leadership, not sporadic “cleanup weeks” and press conferences.
Structural Failures That Must Be Confronted
A sustainable programme demands:
* Medical entomologists with proper remuneration and career pathways.
* Urban development reforms to prevent waterlogging, regulate construction sites, and eliminate breeding niches.
* Environmental management of solid waste and grey water.
* Legislation with teeth and the courage to enforce it without political interference.
* Education from Primary school on mosquito biology and environmental responsibility.
* Media involvement beyond sensational death reporting, to public education, serials, panel discussions.
* Private sector mobilisation, which successive governments have inexplicably ignored.
Sri Lankans have been conditioned to believe dengue is a natural disaster, an unavoidable curse of the tropics. It is not. It is a manmade failure of governance, planning, and political courage. No senior doctor, politician, or public figure has ever led a sustained public campaign demanding accountability. The public remains unaware even of their basic right to health.
My intention is not to incite rebellion but to arm the public with knowledge, because knowledge is power. Dengue can be eradicated. It requires a commando operation, as it were, not committee meetings.
by Dr. M. M. Janapriya
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