In his editorial, ‘The art of debating without debates’ (12.09.2024) the editor of the The island in his customery style has hit the nail on the head with regard to the intentions of the NPP. Drawing attention to its Revolutionary Policy Declaration- The structure of the Economy (pp 23 and 24): “Foreign capital in every sphere shall be vested in the state without any payment of compensation. Free trade zones will be abolished ….” He raises the very valid, significant and crucial issue’ “a clarification should be sought from the JVP/NPP on the duality of socialism and capitalism it finds itself in”.

The editorial of the following day day (13.09.2024) ‘Foreboding and hope cheek by Jowl’ addresses the other significant issue which has been associated with the JVP/NPP namely- threats and violence. This matter has been further explored in an article of the same day- ‘Whither Sri Lanka: or would we have to say Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa?’ The question that ‘An old Connoisseur’ (AOC) is asking from the general populace of this country.

In the article AOC discusses the prospect of voting for Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and the JVP/NPP. AOC then invites the JVP/NPP to acknowledge their past deeds –”terrible mistakes and blunders”, apologise for these and assure the public that these will not happen in the future.

It is in fact these two elements with regard to the JVP/NPP i.e. their apparent duplicity with regard to economic policy and historical association with violence that has caused reservations in the majority from voting for the JVP/NPP. The recent episode with the band Marians and their subsequent ‘retraction ‘WhatsApp clips of the force’s rank and file supporters of the JVP/NPP making threats against their own superiors, only make the voters more wary of voting for the JVP/NPP.

As reiterated in this article by AOC, numerous previous articles, editorials and opinions, the people of this country want a ‘change’. But, not at any price. The JVP/NPP is seen as this potential ‘change’. The question is will they be able to reassure the public that they have the responsibility and capability to bring about this change?

There is no doubt that there are many, many others like AOC. In fact, in the article AOC states ‘However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough……they will get my vote’. Will is a future intention, not, the present intention. AOC further states that the ‘SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY’ (emphasis mine). THEN is the critical word. The JVP/NPP need to deliver on what AOC (and the rest of the country) are expecting: a categorical stand on their economic policies, taking responsibility for their past actions and a firm reassurance that such incidents will not occur under their watch in the future. It is only then that they will get the future vote.

AOC concludes, ‘All of us need to think very deeply before we exercise our much -valued franchise. Our decisions could be a harbinger of absolute disaster or a vista of an …. Let us contemplate ever so carefully and vote wisely for the sake of the country’. AOC is hoping that the JVP/NPP will step up to the task. However, when you take the two statements: ‘However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough……they will get my vote.” And ‘SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY’. It cannot be clearer. AOC (and the majority of the country) has no intention of voting for the JVP/NPP, unless these above-mentioned issues are addressed and sorted out.

AOC in his penultimate paragraph dismisses all the other candidates. ‘There is no point in wasting time with them as none of them will even have a ghost of a chance’. This may very well be true. However, I feel that it will be the votes for the provisional second runner-up and the rest of the also rans that will determine the fate of this country.

In order to explain/understand my theory a knowledge of how our electoral system works is required.

In our voting system for the presidential election, in the absence of a clear victor (a candidate obtaining over 50% of votes) in the first count, a provisional winner and runner-up are determined. These numbers are noted and the boxes are ‘sealed’. The second and third preferences on these ballot cards are not taken into consideration. Thereafter, the second choice of all the remaining cards are noted. If anyone of these are for the aforesaid winner or runner-up, they will be added on to that respective candidate and in these cases the third choice on these cards is immaterial.

If the second choice is not in favour of the runner-up or the winner, the process is then applied to the third choice of the remaining ballot cards. It is important to realise that in this system the value of being the second or third choice is the same, as if it were the first choice i.e. it is the total count of all the choices that matter. To illustrate this through an extreme example, candidate A gets 30% in the first count -making him the provisional winner- and Candidate D gets 5%- making him the runner up. In the second count candidate A gets 10% and candidate D gets 5%. However, in the third count candidate A gets only 5% while candidate D gets 40%. Therefore, in the final tally, candidate A gets 45% against 50% for candidate D, making candidate D the winner.

It is being argued in some quarters that the JVP/NPP will have the highest count, but it probably will not be able to secure a clear majority in the first round. So, let us take a scenario – in keeping with the article by AOC- where the JVP/NPP has got 30% of the vote. The next runner up Ranil or Sajith gets 20%. There is a remaining 50% of the votes. This 50% will have a significant percentage of ‘AOC and the rest of the country’ who want the JVP/NPP to come into power, only if they ‘fulfilled the asking criteria’. In the absence of the JVP/NPP ‘coming clean’ as it were, this lot would reluctantly prefer the alternative. Therefore, this 50% (or a considerable Majority of them) will vote for Ranil or Sajith in whatever order as their second and/or third choice. Even allowing for half of these votes to be spoilt, that still leaves 25%, which would come down in favour of the second runner up being the victor, be it Ranil or Sajith, in the final count.

The JVP /NPP have its work cut out. It is up to them to deliver on the expectations of the populace, in less than a week. If it does not do so and end up losing this presidential election, ironically it will be a ‘Mea maxima culpa’ on its part.

Dr. Sumedha S. Amarasekara