Features
Waiting for a Democratic Opposition
by Tisaranee Gunasekara
“The future is cloth waiting to be cut.”
Seamus Heaney (The Burial at Thebes)
The point had been made often enough. Without a Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency, there wouldn’t have been an Anura Kumara Dissanayake presidency. For the NPP/JVP to go from three percent to 42 percent in four plus years, the system had to be broken from within by the very leaders entrusted with its care by a majority of voters. Gotabaya Rajapaksa achieved that feat in ways inconceivable even by his most stringent critics (who in their sane minds could have imagined the fertilizer fiasco?).
But President Dissanayake’s victory has two other fathers: Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa. President Dissanayake won because the competition was so uninspiring. It was more a case of Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe losing rather than President Dissanayake winning. While the NPP’s rise was meteoric, President Dissanayake failed to gain 50 percent mark of the vote. He is Sri Lanka’s first minority president.
As the IHP polling revealed continuously, all major presidential candidates had negative net favourability ratings; they were more unpopular than popular. The election was a contest to pick the least unpopular leader. Thus the winner’s inability to clear the 50 percent line.
This situation hasn’t changed qualitatively in the run up to parliamentary election. According to the latest IHP poll, President Dissanayake’s net favourability rating is still negative, which means more people regard him unfavourably than favourably. He and Harini Amarasuriya are at minus 10, the least unpopular of leaders. Sajith Premadasa at minus 31, Ranil Wickremesinghe even lower, lag behind not just President Dissanayake and Ms. Amarasuriya, but also the now retired Ali Sabry.
The NPP/JVP is likely to clock a bigger win at the parliamentary election even so, because the oppositional space is clogged by Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa, with the Rajapaksas hanging on to the seams. The same actors representing the same unattractive futures. Compared to these prospects, a Harini Amarasuriya premiership would seem alluring to most Sri Lankans (she is an excellent choice, in any case, for the job).
President Dissanayake has avoided any obvious missteps in his first month. He is treading cautiously, especially in the economic arena, opting not even to tweak Ranil Wickremesinghe’s deal with a group of ISB holders, despite some unfavourable – and precedent-making – clauses such as giving bondholders the option of changing the law underpinning them from New York to England or Delaware; New York is about to pass a bill giving debtor nations greater bargaining power. He is no Gotabaya, at least economics.
In Sri Lanka, it is normal for the party that wins the presidency to win the parliament as well. In 2010, after Mahinda Rajapaksa won the presidential election, the opposition unity fractured. The UNP contested on its own and the JVP contested in an alliance with the defeated presidential candidate, Sarath Fonseka. In the presidential election, Mr. Fonseka had polled 4.2 million. At the parliamentary election, the main oppositional party, the UNP, polled only 2.4 million. Even after the votes for the Tamil and Muslim parties and the JVP/Fonseka headed DNA were factored in, this amounted to an erosion on a massive scale – 1.2 million votes.
In 2019, Sajith Premadasa polled 5.6 million votes. Yet his newly formed SJB polled a mere 2.8 million at the 2020 parliamentary election. Once the votes given to Tamil and Muslim parties and the UNP were factored in, this amounted to a bigger erosion, over 2 million votes.
Even the Rajapaksas could not buck this general trend in 2015. The UNP won the general election despite the much vaunted Mahinda Sulanga.
So the NPP/JVP winning on November 14 would be the norm. The only question is about the extent of that victory: would it be limited to a simple majority or something bigger, close to a two thirds?
A simple majority would be necessary to run an effective government. But a near two thirds victory would be a tragedy. Every time a Sri Lankan party won so big, disaster ensued in 1956, 1970, 1977, 2010 and 2020. Too much power not just corrupts but also stupefies. A future NPP/JVP government might be able to avoid the (financial) corruption trap. But if burdened with a huge majority the government will not be able to evade a blunting of senses, of growing blindness and deafness to public distress, of an addling of wits. Already, future ministers are shrugging off price hikes in such staples as rice, calling them normal. They might be but the dismissive attitude hints that the rot of indifference to public pain might have begun to set in already. In the absence of a strong, principled, and effective opposition, the rot will grow faster, to the detriment of all Sri Lankans, including compass enthusiasts.
Feudal ethos and tyrannical practice
To be fully functional, a bourgeois democratic system needs bourgeois democratic parties. Unfortunately, most Sri Lankan parties are feudalist in ethos and tyrannical in practice. We have a history of leaders treating their parties as private or familial property. The Rajapaksas are the most egregious example but they didn’t start the habit, merely took it to a new low. Senanayakes and Bandaranaikes preceded the Rajapaksas, both families treating dynastic succession as the norm.
When he became the leader of the UNP, J.R. Jayewardene made a clean break with that feudalist ethos. He delinked the UNP from familial politics and opened it to new blood, providing the space for the creation of a line of brilliant second level leaders. In 1977, he allowed the candidates for the upcoming parliamentary election to choose a steering committee to manage the campaign (in a secret vote). The man who topped that internal poll was made the deputy leader, Ranasinghe Premadasa.
Had Mr. Jayewardene won a simple majority in 1977, history might have turned out differently and better. But he won a five sixth majority. It didn’t take long for hubris to set in, making a man of undeniable intellect commit a bunch of avoidable mistakes and unnecessary crimes. And having obtained undated letters of resignation from all parliamentarians, Mr. Jayewardene ran the party like a dictator. Unlike the Bandaranaikes and Senanayakes, he didn’t crown his offspring. Instead, he turned himself into an uncrowned king.
Ranil Wickremesinghe opted for a dictatorial leadership style from day one. He gave himself the title The Leader, changed the party constitution to make it literally impossible to effect leadership changes, marginalised potential challengers and promoted untalented loyalists. He slowly abandoned the J.R./Premadasa UNP’s anti-feudal ethos, turning the UNP into a party where preferment was given to spouses, siblings and offspring of politicians.
As president, Mr. Wickremesinghe prevented the economy’s freefall and achieved a turn around. The NPP government’s decision to go the same route, at least for now, is a tacit admission of the success President Wickremesinghe achieved under extremely difficult circumstances. Yet, his me-or-deluge attitude to the UNP continued and continues. As president, instead of allowing a new young leadership to rebuild the party, he kept control of the UNP via discredited and deeply unpopular yes men. After his humiliating defeat, he clings to the party leadership.
Sajith Premadasa in this department is a veritable Wickremesinghe clone. He has suffered three national defeats, losing the presidency twice and the parliament once. Yet, like Mr. Wickremesinghe, he seems determined to cling to the SJB leadership even at the cost of running the party to the ground. He is also allowing his family into politics. Consequently, the SJB too has become a party unsuited to a bourgeois democratic system, feudal in ethos, dictatorial in style.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the presidency because the JVP understood its own un-electability and created a more electable cocoon as cover, the NPP. Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe are incapable of even such minimal evolution. Like the woolly mammoths who couldn’t adapt to climate changes and were hunted extensively, their inability to adapt to the new political climate created by the NPP/JVP victory would drive their own parties to extinction. With no opposition to keep it on its toes, the government would succumb to hubris sooner rather than later.
The rest would be history. All too familiar history.
Somethings new, one thing old
What if J.R. Jayewardene did not commit the deadly mistake of banning the JVP on totally fabricated charges?
The JVP entered the democratic mainstream in 1977. From then till about 1983, the JVP was non-racist, trying to reach out to Tamils along the lines of class solidarity. It also treated the SLFP as its main enemy, and dreamted of becoming the main opposition (thus the famous lecture series: The Journey’s end for the SLFP). The JVP leadership maintained contact with some government leaders (especially Prime Minister Premadasa). When the opposition launched the general strike of July 1980, the JVP criticised the move and stayed out of it (the strike failed and the government sacked 60,000 striking workers). At a personal level, Mr. Wijeweera got married and started raising a family. These were hardly the actions of a party or a leader harbouring insurgent intentions.
Mr. Wijeweera’s abysmal performance in the 1982 election created a crisis in the JVP. The party’s reversion to a more Sinhala-oriented line was arguably a reaction to the shock of defeat. Yet going the armed revolution path was never on the JVP’s agenda even then. Had President Jayewardene not extended the life of the existing parliament (in which his UNP had a five sixth majority), the JVP would have contested the next general election (scheduled for 1983), won a few seats and settled down into standard parliamentary existence of reform and compromise.
Not only did President Jayewardene postpone parliamentary polls. He also banned the JVP. It was that criminal error which led to the second JVP insurgency (the insurgency’s racist, brutally intolerant nature was the JVP’s choice alone).
Perhaps President Dissanayake is where Mr. Wijeweera would have been had parliamentary election not been postponed and the JVP not been banned. Unfortunately, the JVP’s commendable evolution on matters economic has not been paralleled in the ethnic problem arena. The NPP was remarkably reticent on the subject in its tome-like presidential manifesto. Listening to the JVP general secretary Tilvin Silva indicates the reason. Behind a non-racist façade, the JVP is as regressive about the Tamil question today, as it was in the past.
“After 1970, our major political parties became provincialized gradually,” Mr. Silva said in a recent TV interview when asked about the NPP’s unimpressive electoral performance in the North and the East. “This allowed new forces to come into being in the North, the East, and the plantations… Tamil parties in the North, Muslim parties in the East, plantation parties in the plantations… So these parties decided on how to vote. For example, the people of the North did not vote freely. They voted according to what the TNA decided.”
Not a word about how the supposedly national parties alienated Tamils via discriminatory policies and violence actions, nothing about the disenfranchisement of Upcountry Tamils, Sinhala Only, the race riot of 1958, the standardization of university admissions in 1971 or the brutal attack on the Tamil Language Conference in Jaffna in 1974. Nothing of that history exists in the JVP’s universe, according to Mr. Silva. He admits to the existence of a language problem. The rest is reduced to water, markets, schools and education.
Perhaps the most telling is how he explains the land issue. “During the war some left their lands. Then they couldn’t return. Those who stayed back grabbed the land. Now when the owner goes back someone else is in occupation. So there’s a fight. So the government must intervene, set up land kachcheris and solve the problem.” Not a word about the continued military occupation 15 years after the war ended, the military’s ongoing attempts to grab more land or the road closures which hamper ordinary life. So like the Rajapaksas.
Mr. Silva accuses the Tamil leaders of talking about the 13th Amendment and devolution to protect their own interests. “But people on the ground don’t want 13; they don’t want devolution of power…” Even if that argument is granted, what about the thousands of acres occupied by the military? According to the JVP’s reading, do the Tamil people want their land back from the military, or not? Do they want their roads opened or not? Do they want justice for their dead or not? If the JVP cannot understand those basic demands and yearnings, if the best solution it can offer is administrative decentralisation (under a de facto military occupation), the NPP won’t make much headway in creating a Sri Lankan nation. If Sri Lanka’s road ahead lies between a Sinhala government and a feudalist autocratic (and ineffective opposition), the next five years are unlikely to be all that different from the last 76.
(First published in Groundviews)
by Geewananda Gunawardana
It is encouraging that the piece on agnotology and ethnicity (The Island December 4, 2024) elicited an erudite discourse (‘Ethnicity and genetics – A non-racial academic response’ and ‘Ethnicity – a synonym for confusion,’ The Island December 11 and 16, 2024, respectively) concluding that ethnic divisions have no biological basis. However, we cannot overlook the fact that humans have an evolutionary tendency to belong to a group, clan, or cult for survival purposes; we are social animals. Not having fangs, claws, venom, or any other protective anatomy, tribalism is the way humans have chosen to defend themselves. Unfortunately, the same evolutionary force makes us blind to the hazards of this habit. Throughout human history, this vulnerability has been exploited by story tellers of all stripes and spots to bring us under their fold and fatten themselves. We Sri Lankans tend to fall for such stories at an alarming rate with grave consequences. That is the focus of agnotology: the investigation of our weakness in believing stories, or the resulting culturally induced ignorance, and its effects on our society. It goes beyond ethnic relations.
One thing must be made clear, there is no point in continuing endless academic discourse and hoping for problems to go away. What is necessary is to find ways to reduce and finally eradicate culturally induced ignorance, or the habit of adhering to baseless, false stories that are harmful or counterproductive, and put them into action.
It is a fact that unlearning is much harder than learning. Therefore, it is best if we can stop learning such baseless, fake stories in the first place. The unpleasant truth is that it can be too late for some segments of society as such stories are deeply engraved in their minds. They will reject the facts, and we have no choice but to look beyond their objections. Therefore, the best remedy is to stop our children from learning culturally inherited myths, beliefs, and practices that disrupt harmony, waste valuable resources, and stop us from joining the 21st century. We must tell them the truth that they are poems, myths, and beliefs, etc., and they should not be accepted as undisputable truths. We must train the younger generation to think critically and have the skill to separate facts from fiction, instead of being blind followers. If the Buddha could say that about his teaching, why cannot we say the same about fabricated stories with hidden agendas?
It is inevitable that there will be a deafening outcry that such actions will ruin our proud culture and heritage. There is absolutely no need to let that happen; we can continue culturally and religiously important activities intelligently if we knew their true meaning and that we are not manipulated by some storyteller for their benefit. We must give our children the facts and train them to make sensible decisions rather than blindly following rituals. Even Buddhism teaches us that following rituals blindly is a barrier to liberation.
We have paid dearly for inflaming ethnic division. Let us not forget that the civil strife had cost the nation more than twice the current debt. Should we continue to spread questionable theories that try to prove one is superior to the other or one arrived before the other and has a larger claim to the land? Is it necessary to impress children by glorifying the battle between Dutugamunu and Elara that happened two thousand three hundred years ago? Or, is it more important to convince them that divided we will continue to wallow in misery?
Let us not forget that whether it is the iron age or the 21st century, the root cause of these evils is the elite that manipulate these stories to their benefit. We managed to sideline the old elite, the establishment, or the aristocracy, but there is a new elite trying to raise its ugly head: the so-called academic elite. Please do not jump to conclusions. There is no need to explain again when elite becomes a dirty word but let us be clear that there is an honourably learned community that provides a valuable service to the country. We value them. It is the fake academics that we must be weary of. Let us admit that it is the cream of the cream that enters our public universities. Whether they exhibit additional letters before or after their names or not, we must bear in mind that they are the smartest lot the country has produced. Whether the country reaps the investment made in them or not is a different issue.
Those who could not get in are not necessarily inferior, it is just that the others did better; and if they can afford it, they continue their education in private institutions here or abroad. Unfortunately, this is where elitism raises its ugly head; we want meritocracy for good reasons, but did everyone get an equal opportunity to collect such merits? We have a habit of giving more weight to foreign degrees, a residue of elite veneration, without verifying the quality of the granting institution or the veracity of their claims. It is no secret that it is possible to buy a degree in some countries. Even worse, I know firsthand an individual who worked as a checkout clerk at a pharmacy chain abroad and paraded as a doctor back at home! However, in this internet age, there is no need to be ignorant, to be gullible and believe their stories; few questions and a quick search of the web can verify their claims, and stop the emergence of a new elite, the bad kind. Let us ask not what letters they have added to their names but ask what they have done or can do to solve problems (my apologies to JFK).
We shamelessly propagate many stories that originated in the iron age without ever questioning their relevance to the 21st century. The ugliest of them is the caste system. We must question the value, or the purpose of following a social stratification system started by nomadic farmers from the central Eurasian Steppes to safeguard their feudal system four thousand years ago. Once again, it was their elite that deceived the humble peasants and took advantage. Imagine starting a similar system by treating descendants of computer programmers differently from those of civil engineers, for example. Force them to have different naming systems, prevent intermarriages, live in segregated enclaves, and assume one is above the other. It is a disgrace that we keep this system and go to the extent of forming separate voting blocks.
Another antiquated practice we hang onto is astrology, which started in Mesopotamia. They used the cyclic movement of celestial bodies as a calendar to plan their agricultural activities. Their geocentric models of the cosmos did not allow them to realise that the seasonal changes are the result of the tilt in earth’s rotational axis and varying distance to the sun. This ignorance made them elevate seasonal changes to acts of divinity. It is true that the gravitational force of the moon causes tides, but how can nuclear furnaces that are light years away impact human lives on earth? Science has yet to discover any such forces or find any evidence that astrological predictions have any basis. There are billions of people who lead healthy successful lives in this world without ever following astrology. Instead of astrology, let us teach the children astronomy, so that they will understand that climate change is not a hoax.
The Age of Reason along with scientific revolution started in the 17th century helped humanity get rid of baseless beliefs and myths that were used by the elite to retain power. Unfortunately, we seem to have missed that revolution and are still trapped in the past. That is no accident either: the elite had done their part to limit our access to knowledge. The underlying reasons that resulted in the widespread tuition business that sells knowledge are good examples. The disparity in the quality of public schools between urban and rural areas is another; do the elite send their children to rural schools? According to one report, over eight hundred rural schools had been closed permanently by 2023. The school dropout rate due to poverty is estimated to be about 30 to 35 percent. Is there any doubt that quality education is only for the elite?
Not only that many practices we engage in have no real value, but they also funnel our precious resources to nefarious activities. Unfortunately, these stories are so deeply engraved in our collective psyche that we do not have the will to challenge them. That is the power of storytelling, and its role in shaping our destiny. This is particularly ironic for one important reason. The goal of the ‘Age of Reason’ and the ancient tradition that most Sri Lankans venerate, protect, and give their lives to preserve have the same goal: understanding the natural world and humanity’s place in it through reason: knowing reality. Unfortunately, instead of following that guidance, we have shrouded that timeless truth we inherited with practices based on beliefs, myths, and mysticism. We have legitimized many primitive practices such as rituals centered on appeasing deities, demons, ghosts, clairvoyant reading, and other numerous spirits bringing them under the umbrella of that venerated tradition and blinding ourselves to truth.
We fail to see that communicable diseases are caused by germs and not by angry spirits, and the absurdity of appeasing higher powers for cures instead of using proven medications. The facts of a simple biological event such as reaching puberty are often buried under rituals; the associated taboos impact females from participation in education and in the work force and, at times, risk their health. The period poverty is discussed in high circles, but does it help the needy? These practices teach our children to leave their destinies at the mercy of mystic superpowers instead of taking control of their lives themselves. There lies the biggest obstacle to prosperity. These are all difficult subjects to deal with, but we must initiate a dialogue on the information gap at a minimum if we must move the country forward.
There are many more practices and beliefs that hamper our progress. Hopefully, we will have the courage and wisdom to have that discussion, someday. Until then, we can do one thing at home: let us tell our children the truth. If our practices have artistic, cultural, and economic values, let us tell them so without wrapping them in mysticism. Let us teach them poems for their literary value but not as historical facts. Let them know that history is written by the victors and often gives the writer’s perspective. Let us teach them the value of rational thinking and help them join the 21st century along with the rest of the world. Let us have no doubt that a prosperous country can be built only on fact-based information that is objective, and not on opinions, beliefs, or assumptions inherited from the dark ages. Let elimination of such culturally acquired ignorance be our new year resolution.
“The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.”
Cassandra quotes below a poet she never could enjoy – Alfred Lord Tennyson (1809 – 1892). He was 1st Baron Tennyson and Poet Laureate during much of Queen Victoria’s reign. To her he sounds pompous but his Ring Out Wild Bells is a simple poem and she found it apt at this time. Two stanzas of the poem go thus:
Ring out the want, the care, the sin, / the faithless coldness of the times;
Ring out, ring out my mournful rhymes/But ring the fuller minstrel in.
Ring out false pride in place and blood, /The civic slander and the spite;
Ring in the love of truth and right, /Ring in the common love of good
.I am certain you reader will guess the implied meaning Cass has in mind when quoting these lines. Yes and a loud YES; Sri Lanka is ringing out the bad, ugly, mean, corrupt, pompous pride and bloated egos of those who ruled us. The majority of us have hope in our hearts and look forward to an all-round improvement in how the country is governed. We also are sure the new people at the head of government and state are very different from those Big Wigs of this year before October and down the years, who so drastically dragged the country down to the very depths of deprivation and bankruptcy.
Tennyson rings out the want, the care, the sin; the faithless coldness of the times.
Yes, the times of waiting days in queues for essentials is over. Some may remind Cass it was Ranil W, who did away with queues by taking the right economic decisions. Yes, partly, but during his time as Prez he could have done much more to ease the lot of not only the poorer segment of Sri Lanka’s population but all who suffered. And this while 90 odd persons were advising him and running around in luxury cars while we suffered deprivation.
There certainly was ‘faithless coldness’ during times past when decisions were taken to please the very small minority of the rich at the expense of the rest of Sri Lankans. Coldness we associate with Prez Gotabaya and ‘false pride in place and blood’ during the years Mahinda R was Prez with his favoured persons doing just as they please, not caring one jot for those they made to suffer. Cold unconcern. Coldness is attributed to Ranil W. Comes to mind Keheliya Rambukwella and Lohan Ratwatte, the former importing medical drugs that were ineffective or lethal; the latter strutting in prisons at night with a thigh exposing woman friend. The list of crimes is very long.
Tennyson calls for a ringing in of love of truth and right and common love. AKD, Harini, Vijitha Herath and others of the NPP are ringing in truth and honesty; right government ensuring people’s rights; and intending to end the evils of corruption, nepotism, favouritism and family bandyism of concern only for the wellbeing of families.
A sense of empathy and concern for the country and its people by those in power is definitely in the air, which was never present, except as far back as when DS Senanayake, Dudley Senanayake and John Kotelawala were in power. Kotelawela showed concern in his own brusque way. They were not self-centered and we do not expect our new leaders to be this, even to the slightest degree.
Cassandra’s summation on the state of the country and people’s perceptions is optimistic. The country will sure improve and Ministers in the Cabinet will work to improve the country and its people, not themselves. When honesty, commitment and selflessness are apparent in political leaders, lesser ones too will follow. Thus, we could expect bureaucrats who serve the country with honesty and dedication.
Accidents and apparent incompetence
We are glad the Police have taken due note of the far too many road accidents and have started preliminary findings to arrive at the root of the serious trouble. As the Editor of this newspaper commented in his editorial on this subject, common causes of road accidents are incompetent drivers; road unworthy vehicles; buses plying competitively for fares; and drivers and bus conductors addicted to drugs or intoxicating drinks and being at the wheel under either influence. Also, their being over-worked with far too long spells driving. All these can be remedied. Strict supervision of drivers and vehicles; bus owners being law abiding; the Police taking preventive and punishing action; and punishment meted being severe.
Cassandra experienced the crass incompetence and, perhaps, the debilitating influence of drugs on a driver of a motorbike. She was informed by a friend that a parcel was being delivered to her by one of the delivery services now having good business during this season of gift giving. The delivery man was to be expected around 8.30 pm, the friend said. Cass waited till 9.30, her equanimity fast disappearing and her ire rising. She phoned her friend who contacted either the delivery service or the courier. She was promised he would be at her door in 20 minutes. The clock hands showed 10.30 pm. The driver contacted her. She gave him detailed directions to her home, which even an idiot could follow.
No delivery. She phoned the delivery man, thrice. Each time she heard the motorcyclist ask people directions to Cass’ abode and they gave very accurate directions. But the man could not follow them. She called him. He was just a couple of yards away but at a cross roads, which he should never have been in. Directions were given – simple, easy to follow and unambiguous. No man, no parcel. She sent her domestic to the end of the lane leading to her place. Man finally appears at 11.45. Cass was beyond throwing a tantrum and closer to a stroke or heart seizure.
She was sure, though inexperienced in dealing with druggies, that this driver was under the influence of a drug which dulled his senses to near zero. Her Man Friday tells her that young men are recruited from places far distant from Colombo and do not know its roads and streets. No excuse at all. Glaring faults of employers are non-caring and greed for profit at any cost. Fault of employees: sheer incompetence and immorality in being under the influence of drugs or drink while on the job.
This anecdote is to highlight possible-to-be-remedied faults of businesses. Even government offices had don’t-care-less employees. That will change, and sure must already have changed. Thankfully, Prez AKD gave govt employees a strong pep talk: do your job or you will be made to quit.
Cass ends this Friday’s optimistic Cry with wishing each of her readers a very happy New Year with much less burdens to bear and life improving with hope and anticipation. Gratitude to those who govern us can be given again, replacing the disdain and dislike, hate too, felt earlier. A New Year to the country we love so much of increasing prosperity, equal rights to all and peace!
Features
Navigating the Dragon’s Den: Sri Lanka’s strategic balancing act ahead of President AKD’s visit to China
by Professor Chanaka Jayawardhena
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is scheduled to embark on a state visit to China early next year, following his recent diplomatic success in India. As Sri Lanka rebuilds from the ashes of an economic meltdown, this visit will serve as a pivotal moment, shaping not just bilateral relations but also the island’s broader economic and geopolitical trajectory. While the allure of Chinese investments may offer short-term relief, the stakes are high: the decisions made during this visit could either cement Sri Lanka’s recovery or deepen its vulnerabilities.
The Economic Promise: Opportunity at the Doorstep
China’s economic might is undeniable. As the world’s second-largest economy and a leading investor in developing nations, China has demonstrated a remarkable ability to deploy vast sums of capital into infrastructure projects and industrial ventures. For Sri Lanka, a nation grappling with limited fiscal space, Chinese investment could unlock opportunities in critical sectors such as energy, transport, and manufacturing.
The Hambantota Port stands as a testament to the scope of Chinese involvement in Sri Lanka. Despite initial controversies, the port has emerged as a strategic hub, offering potential for revenue generation and job creation. However, the same cannot be said for the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, often dubbed the “world’s emptiest airport.” While envisioned as a key logistical and passenger hub, the airport has yet to realise its potential, serving as a reminder that infrastructure investments must align with realistic demand projections and comprehensive planning. Addressing this gap should be a priority during discussions with Chinese counterparts, ensuring that such projects contribute meaningfully to Sri Lanka’s economic landscape.
Additionally, enhanced trade relations with China offer significant upside. As Sri Lanka seeks to diversify its export portfolio, targeting China’s vast consumer base could invigorate key industries such as apparel, seafood, and tea. Establishing favourable trade agreements during this visit could pave the way for sustainable economic growth, moving beyond aid and debt reliance.
The Geopolitical Tightrope
The geopolitical stakes for Sri Lanka are both immense and intricate, requiring delicate balancing between its key regional partner, India, and the opportunities presented by China. India remains Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour and has historically shared deep cultural, economic, and security ties with the island nation. India’s contributions during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, including emergency financial aid, are a testament to its enduring commitment. However, India also views any expansion of Chinese influence in Sri Lanka with heightened concern, perceiving it as a potential security threat within its sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean region.
President Dissanayake must walk a fine line during his visit to China, ensuring that the agreements forged do not alienate India or exacerbate regional tensions. While pursuing Chinese investments, Sri Lanka must communicate its intentions transparently to India, emphasising that its engagement with China is rooted in economic pragmatism rather than any geopolitical alignment. Joint initiatives with India, such as collaborations in regional trade and maritime security, can serve as confidence-building measures to assuage Indian apprehensions.
China, on the other hand, presents unparalleled economic opportunities. Investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and renewable energy could provide Sri Lanka with a much-needed economic boost. However, Sri Lanka’s leadership must remain vigilant to avoid the pitfalls of overdependence on China, as evidenced by the debt crises faced by other nations engaged in the Belt and Road Initiative. The priority must be projects that not only bolster the local economy but also preserve national sovereignty.
To emulate the success of nations like Vietnam, Sri Lanka can adopt a “bamboo foreign policy”—firmly rooted in its national interests yet flexible in adapting to the complexities of great power politics. Vietnam’s ability to maintain economic ties with China while cultivating strategic partnerships with the United States, Japan, and ASEAN countries offers a valuable model. Sri Lanka, too, must engage other global players, ensuring a diversified set of partnerships that prevent over-reliance on any single nation.
Moreover, Sri Lanka’s policymakers must focus on ensuring that the benefits of Chinese investments accrue to Sri Lanka itself, rather than serving external strategic interests. This includes rigorous scrutiny of project proposals, transparent procurement processes, and an unwavering commitment to prioritising projects that yield tangible economic returns for the Sri Lankan people.
The challenge lies in balancing these dynamics while maintaining Sri Lanka’s sovereignty. A comprehensive, long-term vision that places Sri Lanka’s national interests at the forefront is essential. Investments should align with the country’s development goals, fostering economic resilience and reducing external vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the success of this balancing act will determine whether Sri Lanka can emerge as a stable and independent player in the region or remain a pawn in the larger geopolitical chessboard.
Potential Pitfalls: Lessons from the Region
Sri Lanka’s impending engagement with China is fraught with risks, many of which have been experienced by other nations. Laos, for instance, has faced severe debt distress due to over-reliance on Chinese loans for infrastructure projects under the BRI. Similarly, Zambia’s excessive borrowing from China has resulted in contentious renegotiations and fears of asset seizures. These examples underscore the importance of scrutinising loan terms and prioritising projects that deliver tangible economic returns.
Another potential pitfall is the erosion of sovereignty. Nations that over depend on Chinese investments often find themselves compromising on key policy decisions, whether in trade, security, or governance. Sri Lanka’s leadership must ensure that economic agreements do not come at the expense of national autonomy.
Moreover, transparency is critical. Corruption in procurement processes and project implementation has plagued many BRI initiatives, undermining public trust and long-term viability. President Dissanayake’s government, which has earned public confidence for its anti-corruption stance, must maintain rigorous oversight over any agreements signed during this visit.
Charting a Vision for the Future
While the immediate focus of President Dissanayake’s visit will likely centre on securing economic investments, the government must adopt a comprehensive vision that extends beyond short-term gains. This vision should encompass three key pillars:
=Economic Sustainability:
Sri Lanka must prioritise investments that align with its long-term development goals. This includes focusing on renewable energy projects that reduce reliance on fossil fuels, thereby lowering energy costs and improving environmental outcomes. Digital infrastructure development, such as expanding broadband access, can drive innovation and attract high-value industries, while skill development initiatives can prepare Sri Lanka’s workforce for the demands of a modern economy. By diversifying its economic base, Sri Lanka can reduce its vulnerability to global economic shocks and ensure sustainable growth.
=Geopolitical Balance:
As Sri Lanka engages with China, it must simultaneously deepen partnerships with other nations, including India, our immediate neighbours in the SAARC region and the rest of both the western world along with the global south. Strengthening ties with India, its closest neighbour, ensures regional security and cooperation, while partnerships with any country with the means can provide access to alternative sources of investment and technology. A multilateral approach will mitigate the risks of over-dependence on any single nation and enhance Sri Lanka’s global standing. By actively participating in regional forums and initiatives, Sri Lanka can position itself as a bridge between competing powers, leveraging its strategic location to attract diverse opportunities.
=Social Cohesion:
The benefits of Chinese investments must be equitably distributed to avoid exacerbating social inequalities. Infrastructure projects should include components that directly impact local communities, such as job creation and skill development programmes.
Transparent planning and community engagement are essential to ensure that large-scale projects do not displace vulnerable populations or create environmental degradation. By fostering inclusivity and addressing the needs of all segments of society, the government can build public trust and strengthen social stability, which is vital for long-term development.
A Positive Path Forward
President Dissanayake’s forthcoming visit to China represents both a challenge and an opportunity. By adopting a cautious yet ambitious approach, Sri Lanka can harness the economic potential of Chinese investments while safeguarding its sovereignty and geopolitical balance. The lessons from countries like Vietnam, Laos, and Zambia serve as valuable guideposts, highlighting both the promise and perils of engagement with global powers.
Sri Lanka’s recovery journey is far from over, but the foundations for a brighter future are being laid. The government’s ability to navigate this complex landscape with transparency, vision, and pragmatism will determine whether the nation can emerge stronger, more resilient, and truly independent. As the president steps into the dragon’s den, the world will be watching—and so will the people of Sri Lanka.
(Views expressed in this article are personal.)
(The writer is Professor of (Chair) of Marketing, University of Surrey, UK. Linkedin: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/marketingchanaka, Email: Chanaka.j@gmail.com
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