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The Government’s Term Tests & Results: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 16th December, 2024, Monday in New Delhi during his first official overseas visit since assuming office in September 2024

by Rajan Philips

A newspaper editorial suggested that the NPP government is facing its December term test and that its weaknesses are showing. In fact, there have been quite a few term tests set up by different pundit examiners and they are producing a mixed bag of results. Overall and objectively, if I may say so, the government has done a reasonably good job for the most part; with a few bads, mainly gaffes, including a Prime Ministerial gaffe involving the two ‘Chinas’; and one standout ugly – the pathetic “PhD in Biochemistry and BSc in Chemical Engineering” lies of Asoka Ranwala MP, and his deservedly quick fall from Speakership grace. The focus has been mostly on his PhD boast, but his claim to a degree in Chemical Engineering is itself an instant hoax. And the leap from Chemical Engineering in Moratuwa to Biochemistry in Japan is manifestly ignorant and creatively stupid.

The real tests have been on the government’s many critics including almost all media outlets – all of them outside parliament as there is no worthwhile opposition within parliament, and all of them wanting to rip a feather off the fledgling AKD presidency and NPP government. The Speaker fiasco has been the critics’ biggest reward so far but even they know that Mr. Ranwala’s stupid twin boasts are a damning indictment of the man’s character but not a fatal flaw of the government. There is no excuse for what this quack of an MP did but there is a limit to which the government can take the blame for it.

There is no question that the NPP government is being asked by numerous critics to show either results or its abilities to produce them almost instantly. Quite a rigorous treatment for a new government and so early in its term. A few of the critics have still not been able to come to terms with the reality that Sri Lanka now has a new JVP (NPP) government. Others are in it for the ride, and also because many of them do not have the same cordial access to the inner circles of the present government as they would have had to its (Ranil-Rajapaksa) predecessors.

All that said, the government with so many new MPs and Ministers is still on a long learning curve, and there are miles to go before it has its real ‘term test’ – the next general election, which one would hope will only be a parliamentary election without another presidential election. And miles to go in many directions involving different ministries and new initiatives.

This Sunday, it will be 90 days since the presidential election and 37 days after the parliamentary election. At the year end, President Dissanayake will be completing his first one hundred days in office, while his full government would have been in office for 47 days. So far, it is the President who has been the centre of all actions and attention. If the government is serious about transitioning to a parliamentary democracy, other cabinet ministers must and must be encouraged to step up and take responsibility for their portfolios in a very public manner as it used to be before 1977 and even until 1994.

People’s Pre-occupations

While President AKD’s first hundred days may not have been spectacular, they have been solid. He could be proud of his tone setting inaugural speech to parliament, his leadership in providing continuity on economic matters, the setting up of a compact cabinet, and the deft handling of his first official visit to India, the island’s preponderant neighbour. While these are commendable accomplishments, the people’s preoccupations are about the availability of essential goods and the affordability of their prices. The government has not found its stride on either front.

Rice and coconuts, among other essentials, have become thorny issues both in terms of rising prices and growing shortages. Fuel and electricity costs are added concerns, though there have been reductions in fuel prices. People and even critics are willing to give the new government some slack, but because so much was promised by the NPP during the election campaigns that order and fairness will be restored in the supply and sale of essential goods and services, the general public and critics have been expecting to see at least different approaches to these problems by the new government even if there are no immediate results arising from them.

Rice, Sri Lanka’s perennial political problem, is now the NPP government’s primary problem. There are both shortages and the uncertainty of prices, which will have to be addressed promptly to avoid facing the fury of the people. The usual quick fixes like price control and supplementary imports are creating more confusion than resolution. The paradox of high levels of rice consumption and the relative poverty of the farmers who produce rice is a longstanding structural problem. But if NPP were to be worth its salt it needs to get cracking on some of these structural problems.

The most notorious of them and where immediate action is needed is the stranglehold that of about six large rice millers have on the rice market. They virtually control the upstream purchase of paddy in large quantities, provide for intermediate processing and storage in massive capacities, and similarly control the downstream sale of rice to wholesalers and retailers in the distribution market. In addition, the rice millers who have benefited hugely from bank credit facilities to build up their milling industry have now become the primary lenders for the poor farmers and producers of paddy. They have taken advantage of the lack of regulatory oversight under successive governments and now become out of control monsters.

In their 2022 research paper on Rice Milling Economics and Market Power, WAN Wijesooriya and IV Kuruppu, two Agrarian Researchers, recommend government initiatives for establishing a comprehensive database covering the rice milling industry in the country, and for encouraging the growth of medium scale millers to break the stranglehold of the largest rice mill holdings. If the NPP government wants to succeed where previous governments have not only failed but did not even try, it must make use of the agrarian expertise available in the country and spearhead a systematic approach to break the stranglehold of the large rice millers. Anything less will be fruitless tinkering with a longstanding problem. The government must also encourage its subject Ministers to take the lead on these matters rather than channelling any and all files all the way to the President’s desk.

Indian Visit

I am not sure whether Sri Lanka’s current rice crisis came up for discussion during the President’s otherwise successful official visit to India. I do not recall if the word rice being in any of the reports or statements on the visit. Rice may not be the only missing word. There have been no references to 13A, or its plus or minus. For the first time, according to one wordy observer, the word ‘Tamil’ has been missing in all the public pronouncements of the visit. During his first meeting with a Sri Lankan President (Mahinda Rajapaksa) in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously reset the bilateral clock to 13A. Perhaps 13A was a bone of contention when the Rajapaksas were at the helm.

Not anymore, it would seem, with a different President, a new government, its tone and messaging, and most of all the topsy turvy election results in the North and East of Sri Lanka. The NPP government could not have hoped for a better start with India on, for want of a less offensive word to some ears, the ‘Tamil’ file; but it has quite a bit of homework to keep it going the way it has started. The objective should be not to ‘disappear Tamil’ as a bilateral subject, but to accommodate Sri Lanka’s Tamils, Muslims and the Tamils of recent Indian origin as equal citizens in law and fact, in a not too distant post-racial Sri Lanka.

For all the historical ties and the geographical proximity between India and Sri Lanka, the relationship between the two countries in the twenty first century is both seen in and defined by the backdrop of China. President AKD’s visit was seen both as a test and as a signal as to which way he might be leaning considering the fact that his two predecessors have been wildly inclined to one side or the other.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, as former president, has been egging President AKD to go all in with India and follow the vision statement he co-announced with Modi in India without any reference to anyone back home. On the other hand, Mahinda Rajapaksa since becoming President in 2005 tilted Sri Lanka significantly towards China without unduly disturbing India. Which way will the wind be blowing with President AKD, has been the question on the minds of all observers of the little Indian Ocean drama involving Sri Lanka.

To his credit, President AKD flew straight and was sincere and honest in his interactions in New Delhi, and he could be expected to be similarly straight, sincere and honest when he goes to Beijing. Enough has been said about the range of topics for co-operation between India and Sri Lanka that was covered by the two leaders and articulated in their joint statement. The areas of co-operation between Sri Lanka and China may not be so extensive on paper but have been quite substantial on the ground.

The challenge to the NPP government, in my view, would be to take a comprehensive review of the plethora of projects in Sri Lanka that have been and are slated to be undertaken by the two Asian giants, make an assessment of their costs and benefits, and to have an integrated internal plan to ensure that the country would maximize the benefits of these projects, while minimizing environmental impacts and avoiding waste and duplication of resources.



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Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

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“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

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After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could  not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references  – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

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The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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