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Verité Research highlights key takeaways from Budget 2022

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Verité Research hosted an expert commentary on the budget speech immediately after it was presented to parliament on November 12, 2021. The commentary focused on the promises stated in the budget speech along with analytical insights from PublicFinance.lk.

Major Highlights

▪ According to the values given in the budget speech, revenue is expected to grow by 46% to LKR 2,284 billion in 2022. Several new taxes and tax increases are proposed in this regard: surcharge tax on profits, social security contribution, and financial VAT.

▪ Even if the projected contribution from the new revenue measures (LKR 333 billion) is considered realistic, the rest of the revenue base would need to grow by 24% in 2022 – at least double the expected nominal GDP growth – to achieve the expected revenue target. The discussion concluded that the estimated revenue growth of 46% was highly ambitious.

▪ Whilst several panellists agreed that weak revenue generation is a critical constraint in the Sri Lankan economy, efforts to improve digitalisation of the tax system and other administrative improvements were highlighted by some panellists.

▪ Similarities between the super gain tax introduced in the 2015 interim budget and the newly introduced surcharge tax were discussed. The tax is expected to bring a revenue of LKR 100 billion. However, due to its one-off nature, this tax will not be a sustainable solution to the structural revenue constraints in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it is a retrospective tax that will undermine the government’s stated objective of creating a stable and predictable tax regime.

▪ The proposed social security contribution appears similar to NBT tax that was removed in 2020, but the budget projects collection to be around 40% more than the typical annual collection from NBT (LKR 105 billion in 2019). This ambitions projection is in spite of having a tax-free threshold (LKR 120 million per annum) ten times higher than the NBT threshold (LKR 12 million per annum), with implementation occurring only once legislation is passed in April.

▪ Concerns were raised regarding the dampening impact the new taxes may have on investor confidence, particularly since many of the new measures are one-off in nature, and in the case of the surcharge tax, it is retroactive in operation. The misalignment between the allocations provided in the budget speech and the priorities of the economy was highlighted throughout the discussion. The high allocations for defence, road development, and generally high levels of capital expenditure over allocations for education, healthcare, and skill development were identified as being problematic.

▪ The panellists also highlighted that social security should not be limited to Samurdhi payments and should have a wider scope in ensuring the safety and the security of the citizens.

▪ The proposal to include an amendment to the Appropriation Bill preventing requests for Supplementary Estimates for 2022 was viewed in a positive light by the panellists as it would ensure that the deviation from the budgeted and actual expenditure would be minimised.

▪ The failure of the budget to address some of the critical issues facing the economy was also highlighted. The lack of attention to and focus on the management of external debt, the lack of a clear plan to regain access to international capital markets, and the related implications for dollar liquidity in the banking system were identified as shortcomings in this year’s budget.



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Sri Lanka pitches Saudi investors for new investment partnerships

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Saudi and Sri Lankan dignitaries at the National Day reception.

By Ifham Nizam

Sri Lanka is pitching Saudi Arabia for greater investment and deeper trade ties, seeking to attract Saudi capital into new development opportunities while aligning bilateral economic cooperation with the Kingdom’s ambitious Vision 2030 agenda, Ports and Civil Aviation Minister Anura Karunathilaka, chief guest at Saudi Arabia’s 96th National Day celebrations in Colombo, said.

Addressing the National Day reception at ITC Ratnadipa, Karunathilaka said Sri Lanka was keen to identify new areas of economic cooperation with the Kingdom and create fresh opportunities for Saudi investors and businesses.

‘We look forward to creating new opportunities for the people of both countries by working in cooperation with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and its broader development initiatives, he said.

The minister said Sri Lanka wanted to move beyond its existing development cooperation with Saudi Arabia and build a broader economic partnership encompassing investment, trade and new development projects.

He noted that Saudi Arabia had already made a substantial contribution to Sri Lanka’s development. Since 1981, the Kingdom has provided concessional financing amounting to around Saudi Riyals 1.5 billion for 13 projects in Sri Lanka, supporting key sectors including energy, healthcare, education, drinking water and infrastructure.

Karunathilaka said Sri Lanka appreciated this support and was keen to build on the foundation created by those projects by opening further avenues for Saudi investment.

The minister’s investment pitch comes as Saudi Arabia advances its Vision 2030 programme, with the Kingdom seeking to diversify its economy and develop new international partnerships. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, is seeking to attract investment and expand economic opportunities through closer engagement with international partners.

Karunathilaka also highlighted the strong people-to-people links between the two countries, noting that nearly 250,000 Sri Lankans currently work and reside in Saudi Arabia.

‘They serve as an important bridge between our two countries and contribute significantly to strengthening the people-to-people ties between Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia, he said.

He expressed appreciation for Saudi Arabia’s continued assistance to Sri Lanka and thanked the Saudi government for the facilities extended to Sri Lankan Muslims undertaking Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages.

Karunathilaka said Sri Lanka looked forward to working more closely with Saudi Arabia to strengthen political relations, broaden investment opportunities and enhance development cooperation.

Yaser Abdulrahman Al-Hazme, Chargé d’Affaires of the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia to Sri Lanka, said the embassy remained committed to strengthening bilateral relations by promoting political, economic and cultural communication between the two countries.

‘The embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Colombo has been keen during the past period to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries by playing its role in supporting political, economic, and cultural communication, Al-Hazme said.

Al-Hazme also highlighted the embassy’s role in strengthening communication between Saudi and Sri Lankan institutions and following up on the interests of Saudi citizens in Sri Lanka.

‘On this precious national occasion, I extend my sincere thanks and appreciation to the government and people of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka for the attention and care given to relations between our two countries, and for the constructive cooperation that has contributed to strengthening the bonds of friendship and partnership between the Kingdom and Sri Lanka, he said.

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Sonali Rodrigo earns national recognition from Australia’s finance industry

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Sonali Rodrigo receiving the prestigious AFG Women on the Move Scholarship at the awarding ceremony held in Melbourne.

Australian finance professional Sonali Rodrigo has been recognised with the prestigious AFG Women on the Move Scholarship, presented by Australian Finance Group (AFG), in recognition of her leadership, industry contribution and impact spanning more than two decades in Australia’s finance industry.

The AFG Women on the Move program is dedicated to supporting and advancing women in the finance and mortgage broking industry, recognising individuals who demonstrate leadership, professional contribution, growth, impact and a commitment to empowering other women. The scholarship is supported by leading industry partners, including HSBC and Thinktank.

Sonali’s career spans more than 20 years in Australia’s finance industry, encompassing senior leadership, financial advisory and governance roles. Alongside her professional responsibilities, she has actively mentored and supported women in their career development, contributed to financial literacy, and helped individuals make more informed financial decisions. Her recognition reflects both her professional achievements and the broader impact of her leadership, particularly in creating opportunities and empowering the next generation of women in finance.

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Beyond the crisis: Sectoral paths to durable growth

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Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS)

Continued From last Friday

Regional infrastructure improvements beyond the Western Province are essential to close market-access gaps and improve efficiency. The Western Province alone generates 42% of Sri Lanka’s GDP, but the dynamics of such agglomeration may also be highly underestimated. Officially, barely a fifth is deemed ‘urban’ in the province, but IPS re-estimates from the 2024 census using population density and infrastructure access, place the true figure at nearly 61%. The absence of strong secondary cities and industrial clusters outside the province reduces the potential gains from this agglomeration, thereby weakening incentives for firms to locate elsewhere or decentralise operations.

Fiscal incentives can promote decentralised corporate operations by offering tax rebates, lower property taxes, and land access in secondary cities like Kalutara and Gampaha, leveraging the connectivity of Southern and Colombo-Katunayake Expressways. The Hambantota seaport and airport, along with Koggala and Mirijjawela Export Processing Zones, can help develop the Southern Province through geography-based tax concessions.

Immediate measures, such as pricing vehicle entry into Colombo city will support regional agglomeration while tackling the acute problem of city congestion. Adopting a low-cost, technology-anchored free-flow method, similar to the Automated Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) currently used in commercial parking facilities for vehicles entering the city, is one such means. Installing high-mounted overhead ANPR gantries at key arterial entry points can operationalise congestion pricing without disrupting traffic speed. Fee collection can use a system like E-Tags electronic toll collection on expressways, integrated with digital payment gateways like GovPay and LankaQR for dynamic, time-of-day variable pricing.

The renewable energy transition is vital to drive competitiveness, external shock resilience, and green growth. Sri Lanka’s transition to renewable energy (RE) has advanced from a mere aspiration to tangible progress. Yet, the evidence suggests the transition is advancing faster on the generation side than the system built to absorb it. Transmission capacity, market design, financing channels, and digital infrastructure have not kept pace with capacity additions, and this gap is what will determine the pace of the transition through 2030.

Capital spending on transmission must be ring-fenced by legally, operationally, and financially separating the electricity grid (the transmission network) from the rest of the energy sector or by the broader government budget as a protected public investment within the medium-term budget framework. Funding should shift from general budget support to dedicated multilateral facilities, reinforced by sovereign guarantees for eligible borrowing. To safeguard public funds, this must be paired with a clear tariff pass-through mechanism that effectively limits open-ended Treasury exposure.

To build market trust, domestic budget funding should be earmarked for market-design technical assistance, signalling strong policy ownership rather than relying on external donors. Transparency too should be strengthened by publishing a firm implementation timeline in the Budget statement and fully disclosing long-term fiscal commitments from Power Purchase Agreements, capacity arrangements, and ancillary services.

(Concluded)

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