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Ukraine: Phantom invasion

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Russian troops near the Ukrainian border

By SANJA DE SILVA JAYATILLEKA

In the 21st century international political theatre, unnerving in the extreme, we were treated recently to how things are likely to be played out in the world when Great Powers flex their muscles in a context of a fluidity when the balance of forces is less than obvious. In this context, the recent Chinese-Russian convergence on many matters, including the future of the world order, increasingly looks like the emergence of a necessary corrective.

|As the US, Germany, France, Britain, Poland, Italy and other heads of state and/or foreign ministers of the NATO alliance rushed to Moscow for consultations at the highest levels, it looked like Europe was on the verge of war. The Western governments did their best to convince everyone that Ukraine was about to be invaded by Russia.

At a White House press conference, the press thought that after the Iraq experience, they needed a bit more evidence to accept the claim that an invasion of Ukraine was imminent. Jake Sullivan replied that in Iraq, they were trying to start a war, but this time they were trying to prevent one. Somehow, he succeeded in looking like they were trying to provoke one.

The Russians had been engaged in intense diplomacy with the US and European governments in an effort to ensure their existential concerns regarding NATO expansion right up to their borders were addressed. The US requested that their written response to Russian documents, containing their proposals, not be disclosed. It turns out that the US had rejected Russia’s proposals. Russia was deploying troops along their border with Ukraine and conducting military exercises on land and sea in a show of strength. It was clear that a show of strength was what it was.

Panic was being spread in the west by their governments. Announcements were made of travel advisories and requests for US citizens to leave before Russian bombs fell on civilian lives. Those who stayed would be on their own, they said, for their government would be unable to save them. Ukraine itself was asking people to calm down. They didn’t want their people leaving. Russia was assuring that they weren’t about to invade since their interest was in NATO powers taking their long-discussed security concerns into consideration and diplomacy was still on.

And yet, the world was being told that Russia would invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympic Games were over. “We are very clear…” the US said, that it is very likely that Ukraine would be invaded anytime. Only a couple of days ago, the British Ministry of Defence even published a military map with red arrows curving towards Ukraine, calling it “President Putin’s possible Axis of Invasion”.

It was “Deja Vu, all over again”.

What’s The Buzz?

What would India feel if Sri Lanka were to formally express the desire and aim to enter into a military alliance with the China? Should anyone consider how India feels? Aren’t we a sovereign country, and shouldn’t we be able to decide on our own security arrangements and with whom we ally militarily?

We have some indication of how that would go down with our closest neighbour. It’s not that long ago that a Chinese submarine was docked at one of our ports, followed by a flurry of diplomatic activity to reassure India that such a thing will not happen again. Sri Lankan leaders take pains to assure India that no activity will be allowed on either land or sea which threatens India’s security concerns.

NATO is a military alliance. Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet Union. Now it’s an independent country. Russia would like to keep it that way. They refer to agreements which promised that NATO would not come too close to its borders. Ukraine insisted that it wants to exercise its sovereign right to join the EU and NATO. As Russia objected in no uncertain terms, suddenly everyone involved started throwing their military toys out of their prams.

I don’t think the rest of the world panicked. They were thinking, where’s the adult in the room?

Long Table De-Escalation

Diplomacy was still on. European heads of state were visiting Moscow.

Anyone who knows anything about the Russian Federation knows that the Russians are serious people with serious weapons who are hardly likely to start a war without serious thought. They have a considerable number of well-developed strategic studies think-tanks with well recognised scholars, academics and intellectuals, and some regularly brief the Kremlin. Their impressive international defence conferences are a reflection of the depth and breadth of their thinking on all strategic matters. Their recent convergence on a number of areas with China, even though it didn’t stretch to any kind of strategic alliance, also ensures that any surprise unilateral military adventure is most improbable.

It was a matter of time before Russia, having drawn their lines in dark red, would let their well-practiced diplomacy take over, and de-escalate. This happened on the 14th of February when Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, well known around the world for his skilled diplomacy (also known to us Sri Lankans for his ability to speak Sinhala), sat at one end of a very long table with President Putin at the other, and informed his boss that not all diplomatic options had been exhausted and there was still room for negotiations. Very considerable social distancing didn’t take away from the seriousness of the event which the Western media described as choreographed, which it probably was. It made good theatre.

Foreign Minister Lavrov informed the President that he was not satisfied with the responses he received from his counterparts. “…They basically said the right of a state to choose unions and join or replace them overrides everything else and is not a subject for discussion, as it were. We are reminding the Americans and our other Western colleagues that this right, formalised in OSCE top-level decisions at the 1999 and 2010 summits, the Russia-NATO 2002 Rome Declaration, and the Lisbon Declaration of the 2010 Russia-NATO summit, is not unconditional. This right is directly conditioned by other points that were supported, let me repeat, as a package by consensus. The second part of the package basically says that each state’s right to choose alliances is limited by its own commitments not to enhance its security at the expense of any other state.”

It’s easy to spot the hypocrisy if one imagines Cuba, entering into a military alliance with Russia or China. The collective Western howl would certainly be heard in Colombo. Colombo would in any case not agree with that position. Our stated position is that we don’t presume to use the sovereignty argument without considering India’s perceptions of the impact on its security.

However, in the second part of his conversation, Minister Lavrov informs President Putin that the responses were constructive: “The second part is more constructive to a certain extent. It envisages rather specific measures to address the problems of land-based short and intermediate-range missiles after the Americans discarded the corresponding treaty, the INF. It also contains specific proposals on a range of measures to reduce military risks, confidence-building measures and military transparency.”

President’s question whether there was “still .. a chance of coming to terms with our partners” Minister Lavrov said “…as the head of the Foreign Ministry, I must say that there is always a chance.”

Minister of Defence Shoigu was next at the long table on the 14th of February. Defence Minister Shoigu is from the Buryat region of Russia which contains a Buddhist population. He heads a very well-trained army with impressive hardware coveted by many countries around the world, with our neighbour India being a valued customer.

He described the recent military exercises: “…the exercises involved drills against various types of hypothetical enemy attacks in all areas, including those of surface ships, submarines and of blue-water navies.”

Then comes a submarine story of their own, a bit different to ours. Minister Shoigu informs President Putin of a rogue submarine seen in their waters:

“During the Pacific Fleet’s operations, as part of an exercise near the Kuril Island of Urup, we detected a submarine, presumably that of the United States. Following almost three-hour operations, the submarine was expelled from the territory of the Russian Federation. Actually, it had ventured over four kilometers into Russian territorial waters, a large distance, by local standards. We conducted special operations three times and forced the submarine to leave Russia’s territorial waters.”

Oh dear. That wasn’t nice. I mean it wasn’t very nice into sneak into somebody else’s territorial waters. A bit like an invasion, which everyone panics about.

Minister Shoigu was understandably offended. “Such activity in the east is absolutely incomprehensible and unjustified. But I want to repeat once again that the exercises will proceed: some of them are over, others are nearing completion…”

And thus, the de-escalation began and soon may it be completed.

World Order

We have got an unexpected glimpse into ‘world order games’. When the dust settles, the players will have learnt the limits of their strengths and the imperative of compromise. The shape of this new understanding will spill over into all international relations, including into our region, whichever way one decides to describe it, the Indo-Pacific or Asia-Pacific.

Some players came off looking better than others. The British will want to forget the meeting of the Foreign Ministers in Moscow and their Foreign Secretary’s faux pas with it. Not to be outdone, the British press provided the ammunition for the Russians to take the mickey, reporting that the “invasion” would take place at “3.00 am local time on Wednesday (0100 GMT)”! They cited “anonymous US intelligence officials as sources for the claim”. This being too tempting a target to overlook, the irascible Dimitri Peskov, President Putin’s Press Secretary, suggested that the Ukrainians set their alarms so as not to miss it!

But the critical importance of well-considered diplomacy intelligently conducted by competent persons was made clear to the world, and all efforts at ensuring the possession of such skills and persons able to conduct it without embarrassing themselves and their countries, may be the only way to avoid wars.

While the “invasion song” is still number 1 on the charts on NATO radio, the rest of the world, that is to say, most of the world, may have tuned-out. It sounds too similar to several previous chart-toppers.



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Opinion

The shadow of a Truman moment in the Iran war

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Wars often produce moments when leaders feel compelled to seek a decisive stroke that will end the conflict once and for all. History shows that such moments can generate choices that would have seemed unthinkable only months earlier. When Harry S. Truman authorised the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, the decision emerged from precisely such wartime pressures. As the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensifies today, the world must ensure that a similar moment of desperate calculation does not arise again.

The lesson of that moment in history is not that such weapons can end wars, but that once the logic of escalation begins to dominate wartime decision-making, even the most unthinkable options can enter the realm of strategic calculation. The mere possibility that such debates could arise is reason enough for policymakers everywhere to approach the present conflict with extreme caution.

As the war drags on, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu will face mounting pressure to produce decisive results. Wars rarely remain confined to their original scope once expectations of rapid victory begin to fade. Political leaders must demonstrate progress, military planners search for breakthroughs, and public narratives increasingly revolve around the need for a conclusive outcome. In this environment, media speculation about “exit strategies” or “off-ramps” for Washington can unintentionally increase pressure on decision-makers. Even well-intentioned commentary can shape the climate in which leaders make decisions, potentially nudging them toward harder, more dramatic actions.

Neither the United States nor Israel lacks the technological capability associated with advanced nuclear arsenals. The nuclear arsenals of advanced powers today are far more sophisticated than the devices used in 1945. While their existence is intended primarily as deterrence, prolonged wars have historically forced strategic communities to examine every available option. Even the discussion of such possibilities is deeply unsettling, yet ignoring the pressures that produce such debates can be dangerous.

For that reason, policymakers and societies on all sides must recognise the full range of choices that prolonged wars can place before leaders. For Iran’s leadership and its wider strategic community, absorbing this reality may be essential if catastrophic escalation is to be avoided. From Tehran’s perspective, the conflict may well be seen as existential. Yet history also shows that wars framed as existential struggles can generate the most dangerous strategic decisions.

The intellectual climate in Washington has also evolved. A number of influential voices in Washington now argue that the United States has become excessively risk-averse and that restoring global credibility requires a more assertive posture. Such arguments reflect a broader shift toward the language of renewed deterrence and strategic competition. Yet this very logic can make it politically harder for leaders to conclude conflicts without visible demonstrations of strength.

The outcome of this conflict will also be watched closely by other major powers. In 1945, the atomic decision was shaped not only by the desire to end a brutal war but also by the strategic message it sent to rival states observing the emergence of a new geopolitical era. Today, other significant powers will similarly draw lessons from how the United States manages both the conduct and the conclusion of this conflict.

This is why cool judgment is essential at this stage of the war. Whether the original decision to go to war was wise or ill-advised is now largely beside the point. Once a conflict has begun, the overriding priority must be to prevent escalation into something far more dangerous.

In such moments, the international system can benefit from the quiet diplomacy of actors that retain a degree of strategic autonomy. Among emerging nations, India stands out as a major emerging power in this regard. Despite its energy dependence on the Gulf and deep economic engagement with the United States, India has consistently demonstrated a capacity to maintain independent channels of communication across geopolitical divides.

This unique positioning may allow New Delhi to explore, discreetly and without public fanfare, avenues for de-escalation with Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran alike. At moments of heightened tension in international politics, the world sometimes requires what might be called an “adult in the room”: a state capable of engaging all sides while remaining aligned exclusively with none.

If the present conflict continues to intensify, the value of such diplomacy may soon become evident. The most important lesson from 1945 is not only the destructive power of nuclear weapons but the pressures that can drive leaders toward choices that later generations struggle to comprehend. History shows that when wars reach their most desperate phases, restraint remains the only safeguard against catastrophe.

(Milinda Moragoda is a former Cabinet Minister and diplomat from Sri Lanka and founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, a strategic affairs think tank, can be contacted via email@milinda. This was published ndtv.com on 2026.03.1

by Milinda Moragoda

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Opinion

Practicality of a trilingual reality in Sri Lanka

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Dr. B.J.C. Perera (Dr. BJCP) in his article ‘Language: The symbolic expression of thought’ (The island 10.03.2026) delves deeper into an area that he has been exploring recently – childhood learning. In this article he writes of ‘a trilingual Sri Lanka’, reminding me of an incident I witnessed some years ago.

Two teenagers, in their mid to late teens, of Muslim ethnicity were admitted to the hospital late at night, following a road traffic accident. They had sustained multiple injuries, a few needing surgical intervention. One boy had sustained an injury (among others) that needed relatively urgent attention, but in itself was not too serious. The other had also sustained a few injuries among which one particular injury was serious and needed sorting out, but not urgently.

After the preliminary stabilisation of their injuries, I had a detailed discussion with them as to what needed to be done. Neither of them spoke Sinhala to any extent, but their English was excellent. They were attending a well-known international school in Colombo since early childhood and had no difficulty in understanding my explanation – in English. The boys were living in Colombo, while their father would travel regularly to the East (of Sri Lanka) on business. The following morning, I met the father to explain the prevailing situation; what needs to be done, urgency vs. importance, a timeline, prioritisation of treatment, possible costs, etc.

Doctor’s dilemma

The father did not speak any English and in conversation informed me that he had put both his boys into an International School (from kindergarten onwards) in order to give them an English education. The issue was that the father’s grasp of Sinhala was somewhat rudimentary and therefore I found that I could not explain the differences in seriousness vs, urgency and prioritisation issues adequately within the possible budget restrictions. This being the case and as the children understood exactly what was needed, I then asked the sons to ‘educate’ the father on the issues that were at hand. The boys spoke to their father and it was then that I realised that their grasp of Tamil was the same as their father’s grasp of Sinhala!

In the end I had to get down a translator, which in this case was a junior doctor who spoke Tamil fluently; explained to him what was needed a few times as he was not that fluent in English, certainly less than the boys, and then getting him to explain the situation to the father.

What was disturbing was having related this episode at the time to be informed that this was not in fact not an isolated occurrence. That there is a growing number of children that converse well in English, but are not so fluent in their mother tongue. Is English ‘the mother tongue’ of this ‘new generation’ of children? The sad truth is no and tragically this generation is getting deprived of ‘learning’ in its most fundamental form. For unfortunately, correct grammar and syntax accompanied with fluency do not equal to learning (through a language). It is the natural process of learning two/three languages (0 to 5 years) that Dr. BJCP refers to as being bilingual/trilingual and is the underlying concept, which is the title of Dr. BJCP’s article ‘Language: The symbolic expression of thought’.

“Introduction into society”

It is critical to understand at a very deep level the extent and process of what learning in a mother tongue entails. The mother’s voice is arguably the first voice that a newborn hears. Generally speaking, from that point onwards till the child is ‘introduced into society’ that is the voice he /she hears most. In our culture this is the Dhorata wedime mangalyaya. Till then the infant gets exposed to only the voices of the immediate /close family.

Once the infant gets exposed to ‘society’ he /she is metaphorically swimming in an ocean of language. Take for example a market. Vendors selling their wares, shouting, customers bargaining, selecting goods, asking about the quality, freshness, other families talking among themselves etc. The infant is literally learning/conceptualizing something new all the time. This learning process happens continuously starting from home, at friends/relatives’ houses, get-to-gathers, festivals, temples etc. This societal exposure plays a dominant role as the child/infant gets older. Their language skills and vocabulary increase in leaps and bounds and by around three years of age they have reached the so-called ‘language explosion’ stage. This entire process of learning that the child undergoes, happens ‘naturally and effortlessly’. This degree of exposure/ learning can only happen in Sinhala or Tamil in this country.

Second language in chilhood

Learning a second language in childhood as pointed out by Dr BJCP is a cognitive gift. In fact, what it actually does is, deepens the understanding of the first language. So, this-learning of a second language- is in no way to be discouraged. However, it is critical to be cognisant of the fact that this learning of the second language also takes place within a natural environment. In other words, the child is picking up the language on his own. As readily illustrated in Dr. BJCP’s article, the home environment where the parents and grandparents speak different languages. He or she is not being ‘forcefully taught’ a language that has no relevance outside the ‘environment in which the second language is taught’. The time period we (myself and Dr. BJCP) are discussing is the 0 to 5-year-old.

It does not matter whether it is two or three languages during this period; provided that it happens naturally. For as Dr. BJCP states in his article ‘By age five, they typically catch up in all languages…’ To express this in a different way, if the child is naturally exposed to a second /third language during this 0 to 5-year-old period, he /she will naturally pick it up. It is unavoidable. He /she will not need any help in order for this to happen. Once the child starts attending school at the age of 5 or later, then being taught a second language formally is a very different concept to what happens before the age of 5.

The tragedy is parents, not understanding this undisputed significance of ‘learning in/a mother tongue’, during the critical years of childhood-0 to 5; with all good and noble intentions forcefully introduce their child to a foreign tongue (English) that is not spoken universally (around them) i. e., It is only spoken in the kindergarten; not at home and certainly nowhere, where the parents take their children.

Attending school

Once the child starts attending school in the English medium, there is no further (or minimal) exposure to his /her mother tongue -be it Sinhala or Tamil. This results in the child losing the ability to converse in his/her original mother tongue, as was seen earlier on. In the above incident that I described at the start of this article, when I finally asked the father did he comprehend what was happening; his eyes filled with tears and I did wonder was this because of his sons’ injuries or was it because his decisions had culminated in a father and a son/s who could no longer communicate with each other in a meaningful way.

Dr BJCP goes on to state that in his opinion ‘a trilingual Sri Lanka will go a long way towards the goals and display of racial harmony, respect for different ethnic groups…’ and ‘Then it would become a utopian heaven, where all people, as just Sri Lankans can live in admirable concordant synchrony, rather than as a splintered clusters divided by ethnicity, language and culture’. Firstly, it must be admitted from the aspect of the child’s learning perspective (0 to 5 years); an environment where all three languages are spoken freely and the child will naturally pick up all three languages (a trilingual reality) does not actually exist in Sri Lanka.

However, the pleasant practical reality is that, there is absolutely no need for a trilingual Sri Lanka for this utopian heaven to be achieved. What is needed is in fact not even a bilingual Sri Lanka, but a Sri Lanka, where all the Sinhalese are taught Tamil and vice versa. Simply stated it is complete lunacy– that two ethnic communities that speak their own language, need to learn another language that is not the mother tongue of either community in order to understand one another! It is the fact that having been ruled by the British for over a hundred years, English has been so close to us, that we are unable to see this for what it is. Imagine a country like Canada that has areas where French is spoken; what happens in order to foster better harmony between the English and French speaking communities? The ‘English’, learn to speak French and the ‘French’ learn to speak English. According to the ‘bridging language theory of Sri Lanka’, this will not work and what needs to happen is both communities need to learn a third language, for example German, in order to communicate with one another!

Learning best done in mother tongue

eiterating what I said in my previous article – ‘Educational reforms: A Perspective (The Island 27.02.2026) Learning is best done in one’s mother tongue. This is a fact, not an opinion. The critical thing parents should understand and appreciate is that the best thing they can do for their child is to allow/encourage learning in his/her mother tongue.

This period from 0 to 5 years is critically important. If your child is exposed naturally to another language during this period, he /she will automatically pick it up. There is no need to ‘forcefully teach’ him /her. Orchestrating your child to learn another language, -English in this instance- between the ages of 0 to 5 at the expense of learning in his /her mother tongue is a disservice to that child.

by Dr. Sumedha S. Amarasekara

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Opinion

Tribute to Vijitha Senevirathna

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APPRECIATION

On Friday, the 20th of March, Vijitha Senevirathna would have celebrated his 85th birthday if not for his sad passing away nearly a year ago.

The passing of Vijitha was a moment of great sorrow to all who knew him.

He was my classmate from Montessori to pre-university at Maris Stella College, Negombo. As a Maristonian, Vijitha excelled in his academic studies.

Eventually, he entered the Law College and practised as an Attorney-at-Law and Notary Public for over 50 years.

As an Attorney-at-Law, Vijitha earned the respect of the judiciary and a wide circle of clients. He upheld the highest and most cherished values of the legal profession and earned the trust of all who knew him. His 50th anniversary in the noble profession of law was celebrated with much pageantry, amidst a distinguished gathering of friends, relations, clerics, and the rich and famous of Sri Lanka.

Vijitha dearly loved his proud wife Nirmali and his six children, who are in the highest professions in Sri Lanka. He inculcated among his children professional efficiency, diligence, and honesty.

We who associated closely with Vijitha miss his warm friendship, sense of humor, and animated conversation. He was a raconteur, and people gathered around him and listened to his narrations and tales of yore, especially at the many celebrations at his residence in Dehiwala, where the waters of Scotland flowed generously.

I have personally admired Vijitha’s patience, grit, and lifetime achievements, despite a physical dysfunctionality he suffered over his lifetime.

For Vijitha, the song has ended, but the melody lingers on, in the words of the popular composer Irving Berlin.

Merrick Gooneratne

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