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Ukraine invasion takes a surreal turn

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by kumar DaviD

Seven weeks ago Russian troops withdrew from northern Ukraine and the vicinity of Kiev after defeat at the hands of the plucky Ukrainians. There was hope that both sides would press the reset button and, aside from Crimea and the intractable Donbas region (two Russian aligned provinces), a ceasefire may be worked out. Not so. Putin refused to accept the military fiasco; he was not going to see his sloppy, ill-equipped army humiliated.
The sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva whether by Ukrainian missiles or a munitions explosion (if you believe in the tooth-fairy) was humbling. Russia regrouped, fired Generals, modified objectives and struck back.

Crucial battles are raging and though Russia is suffering setbacks (15,000 soldiers killed so far) it is likely to eventually overrun eastern and southern Ukraine. It has taken Mariupol and much of the Black Sea coast. The advance has been painful, bungling, hardware technically defective; cannon fodder for top of the line Western missiles, artillery and drones. Further pummelling of the Russian military will make Putin’s position as
head of state untenable but by taking Mariupol the Russians have scored a psychological victory and freed up forces for the next stage which may swing either way. A BBC analyst gives a bleak for Putin long term assessment:
https://www.bbc.com/news/worldeurope- 61348287

 

Putin’s (unlikely) best-case outcome is to cut Ukraine (a country of 45 million) in two and take all of the east and south. He would like to carry out regime change, do away with the Zelenskyy government and install a puppet regime for three reasons. First, the West has done its worst with sanctions, there is little more it can threaten. If Putin destroys the cream of the Ukrainian army, he can have the rest of the country for the asking. An anti- Russian provisional government may be formed in exile but how many non- NATO countries will recognise it? Second, isolated, Russia for material reasons (not the strategic or ‘spiritual’ ones I mention later) will find it
advantageous to incorporate Ukraine and expand its economic footprint? The third reason is strategic. Sweden and Finland, alarmed by the invasion have applied to join NATO.
Russia, justifiably is enraged but is powerless to do anything. Finland has a 700km border with Russia. Were they to join the Russian response will be more than moving strategic forces closer to Finland and the three tiny Baltic states. It will need to set up a buffer against NATO members Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. It would like not only to annexe Ukraine and push through regime change but also set up a rump Warsaw Pact
(Russia, Belarus, Eastern-Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova) but it is currently unable to do this. I have full-frontal exposure to onesided Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN, Euronews, france-24, DW and Skynews. A new English language channel available 24/7 is China Global Television Network (CGTN) tried to keep a balance between pro-NATO and pro-Moscow views but abandoned this and is no longer distinguishable from Western channels, perhaps subtly signalling a change in Beijing’s attitude. Russia’s RT is of course blocked in the West and even in Hong Kong by “the third party paid service provider”. Free speech! Something different from the bias of Western mainstream media is not easy to find, but such exposure is indispensable. There are links that deride Western bias, for example New Atlas (try it before it is banned in the ‘democracies’). Interesting videos on this site are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=8moZ7S4voe4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=h_JVhaTxC00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=0aCf6pmdY7E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=0aCf6pmdY7E&t=190s
Is Putin guilty of war crimes? Western and even Chinese media report bodies in Butcha and Kharkiv with hands tied behind their backs. Retreating defeated Russians are destroying cities, murdering and raping.
Putin seems to have lost control of his Generals who do not track instructions. One cannot dismiss these allegations any more than doubt mass murder  by Serbs in Srebrenica or slaughter of Tamil civilians in “safe” camps by Lankan artillery in the closing stages of the civil war. The demolition of Ukrainian cities is as heinous as the destruction of Iraq by Bush and Blair.

Blair. I must get to back to why the Russian response may develop in dangerous ways. Its foreign ministry declared that if Finland and Sweden join NATO Russia would end the nuclear-free Baltic-Scandinavian region. In my view this is entirely justified; if A and B do what they deem “essential” for their security then C, in turn, must do what it must to ensure its security. Sweden and Finland are making an empty gesture; America and Western Europe will not go to nuclear war, to hell with NATO Article 5, whatever happens to these outposts; NATO’s responses in Ukraine proves this amply. NATO will not risk nuclear war except if the American mainland or the core countries of Western Europe are attacked. I have been wrestling in my mind what the correct standpoint on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be and have factored it into two parts, viz; (a) the Putin-Ukraine dimension and (b) US/NATO vs. Russia/China confrontation. In respect of (a) Putin’s grinding down of a small country is egregious and unforgivable; it’s like the American-British pulverisation of Iraq in 2003. I say this despite my firm view that the creep of US/NATO ever closer to Russia since 1990 poses an existential threat to Russia’s survival. Then is invasion justified? No. Putin could have sorted it out by a mix of threats, strategy and forcing Kiev to promise it would never join NATO which it eventually did half-way through the war. Neo-Nazis massacred Russian speaking Ukrainians from 2014, but correction of this did not require the intensity of Putin’s onslaught.

Putin has another ‘spiritual’ motive. He is deeply a Russian- Orthodox Christian and believes Ukraine and Russia are one indivisible spiritual, cultural and historical whole. (Many Sinhalese too believe that all of Sri Lanka from Dondra to Point Pedro is analogous). The Americans and British, in particular Bush and Blair (B&B), were ‘spiritually’ similar to Putin in their propensity to pulverise Iraq or strangle Libya. The reactions of UN Secretary-
General António Guterres seemed to imply that he had concerns about Putin’s mental rationality; I watched him tour devastated Ukrainian cities. He would be justified in stretching his concerns to B&B. More than Christian disdain of Islam (and other religions, by the way), B&B believed that purportedWestern values (democracy, freedom, First Amendment rights etc.) are magnificent callings matching Putin’s Christian-Orthodox vision of Great Russian revanchism -Putin is not a Marxist. Having said these nasty things about Putin, turning to my point (b) I am entirely against the US/NATO longterm strategy. It is an astonishingly irresponsible step bringing WW3 closer. The objective is to crush Russia, encircle it militarily and push through regime change. What is the purpose of NATO anymore? For defence against whom, invaders from Mars? The West has committed every effort and expense to arm Ukraine and taken upon itself the task of crushing Putin. Biden asked Congress for $40+ billion for the war which it approved with bipartisan glee. The share prices of the five largest nuclear weapons developers on the New York Stock Exchange have risen to an all-time high. NATO is actively engaged in a proxy war with Russia; bigger fireworks may come. So what! The goal is something bigger. The 21st Century is a Thucydides Trap. Economic hegemony this century will demonstrate the hegemony of China-Asia or America-EU. Whichever side you support don’t fool yourself; the trap has been sprung. Russia is small change; the real target is China. The battle royal is the battle for 21st Century Global Economic hegemony. The West’s first step is to smash Putin and his regime and bring Russia into alignment. How else explain over 5,000 sanctions, strangling its economy and freezing its own currency reserves? The West is even engendering food and fuel supplies to poor countries, creating supply chain wreckage and now raising the stark threat of global recession. The prize you see is deemed worth the sacrifice. Putin by his idiocy has made his own shipwreck certain. Russia is now banned from international sports tournaments, art, cultural and music festivals, and can you believe it, international scientific conferences. The pinnacle of insanity is that some journals refuse to accept papers submitted by Russian scholars and scientists; Western ‘Civilisation’ has gone bonkers! This is the biggest global game since WW2. Sanctions madness has turned into clinical insanity. The most significant dimension not receiving much attention is that within 10 years China will have influence over Russia’s vast natural resources and Chinese investments will make inroads as Western companies pull out – whatever happens to Putin. I made this case in my April 3 column Birth of a New World Order. Regime change and bringing Russia into the West’s
sphere will, if successful, reverse my thesis. To date America is the winner and Russia and Putin the big losers – and Ukraine of course. China has gone off the Ukraine War radar; society and economy choke in a bizarre ‘dynamic-zero’ covid mantra of Xi Jinping’s making.



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Sri Lanka’s new govt.: Early promise, growing concerns

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s demeanour, body language, and speaking style appear to have changed noticeably in recent weeks, a visible sign of embarrassment. The most likely reason is a stark contradiction between what he once publicly criticised and analysed so forcefully, and what his government is actually doing today. His own recent speeches seem to reflect that contradiction, sometimes coming across as confused and inconsistent. This is becoming widely known, not just through social media, YouTube, and television discussions, but also through speeches on the floor of Parliament itself.

Doing exactly what the previous government did

What is now becoming clear is that instead of doing things the way the President promised, his government is simply carrying on with what the previous administration, particularly Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government, was already doing. Critically, some of the most senior positions in the state, positions that demand the most experienced and capable officers, are being filled by people who are loyal to the JVP/NPP party but lack the relevant qualifications and track record.

Such politically motivated appointments have already taken place across various government ministries, some state corporations, the Central Bank, the Treasury, and at multiple levels of the public service. There have also been forced resignations, bans on resignations, and transfers of officials.

What makes this particularly serious is that President Dissanayake has had to come to Parliament repeatedly to defend and “clean up” the reputations of officials he himself appointed. This looks, at times, like a painful and almost theatrical exercise.

The coal procurement scandal, and a laughable inquiry

The controversy around the country’s coal power supply has now clearly exposed a massive disaster: shady tenders, damage to the Norochcholai power plant, rising electricity bills due to increased diesel use to compensate, a shortage of diesel, higher diesel prices, and serious environmental damage. This is a wide and well-documented catastrophe.

Yet, when a commission was appointed to investigate, the government announced it would look into events going back to 2009, which many have called an absurd joke, clearly designed to deflect blame rather than find answers.

The Treasury scandal, 10 suspicious transactions

At the Treasury, what was initially presented as a single transaction, is alleged to involve 10 transactions, and it is plainly a case of fraud. A genuine mistake might happen once or twice. As one commentator said sarcastically, “If a mistake can happen 10 times, it must be a very talented hand.” These explanations are being treated as pure comedy.

Attempts to justify all of this have sometimes turned threatening. A speech made on May 1st by Tilvin Silva is a case in point, crude and menacing in tone.

Is the government losing its grip?

Former Minister Patali Champika has said the government is now suffering from a phobia of loss of power, meaning it is struggling to govern effectively. Other commentators have noted that the NPP/JVP may have taken on a burden too heavy to carry. Political cartoons have depicted the NPP’s crown loaded with coal, financial irregularities, and political appointments, bending under the weight.

The problem with appointing loyalists over qualified professionals

Appointing own supporters to senior positions is not itself unusual in politics. But it becomes a betrayal of public trust when those appointed lack the basic qualifications or relevant experience for the roles they are given.

A clear example is the appointment of the Treasury Secretary, someone who was visible at virtually every NPP election campaign event, but whose qualifications and exposure/experiences may not match the demands of such a critical position. Even if someone has a doctorate or professorship, the key question is whether those qualifications are relevant to the role, and whether that person has the experience/exposure to lead a team of seasoned professionals.

By contrast, even someone without formal academic credentials can succeed if they have the right skills and surround themselves with advisors with relevant exposure. The real failure is when loyalty to a political party overrides all other considerations, that is a fundamental betrayal of responsibility.

The problem is not unique to this government. In 2015, the appointment of Arjuna Mahendran as Central Bank Governor was a similar blunder. His tenure ended in scandal involving insider dealing and bond market manipulation. However, in that case, the funds involved were frozen and later confiscated by the following government, however legally questionable that process was.

The current Treasury losses, by contrast, may be unrecoverable. Critics say getting that money back would be next to impossible.

The broader damage: Demoralisation of capable officials

When loyalists are placed above competent career officials in key positions, it demoralises the best public servants. Some begin to comply in fear; others lose motivation entirely. The professional hierarchy breaks down. Junior officials start looking over their shoulders instead of doing their jobs. This collective dysfunction is ultimately what destroys governments.

Sri Lanka’s pattern: every government falls

This pattern is deeply familiar in Sri Lankan history. The SWRD Bandaranaike government, which swept to power in 1956 on a wave of popular support, had declined badly by 1959. The coalition government, which came to power reducing the opposition to eight seats, lost in 1977, and, in turn, the UNP, which came in on a landslide, in 1977, crushing the SLFP to just eight seats, suffered a similar fate by 1994.

Mahinda Rajapaksa came to power in 2005 by the narrowest of margins, in part because the LTTE manipulated the Northern vote against Ranil Wickremesinghe. But he was re-elected in 2010 on the strength of ending the war against the LTTE. Still, by 2015, he was voted out, because the benefits of winning the war were never truly delivered to ordinary people, and because large-scale corruption had taken root in the meantime. Gotabaya Rajapaksa didn’t even last long enough to see his term end.

Now, this government, too, is showing early signs of the same decline.

The ideological contradiction at the heart of the NPP

There is another challenge: though the JVP presents itself as a left-wing, Marxist-socialist party, many of those who joined the broader NPP coalition, businesspeople, academics, professionals, do not hold such ideological views. Balancing a left-leaning party with a centre-right coalition is extremely difficult. The inevitable tension between the two pulls the government in opposite directions.

The silver lining, however, is that this has produced a growing class of “floating voters”, people not permanently tied to any party, and that is actually healthy for democracy. It keeps governments accountable. Independent election commissions and civil society organisations have a major role to play in informing these voters objectively.

In more developed democracies, voters receive detailed candidate profiles and well-researched information alongside their ballot papers, including, for example, independent expert analyses of referendum questions like drug legalisation. Sri Lanka is still far from that standard. Here, many people vote the same way as their parents. In other countries, five family members might each vote differently without it being a scandal.

Three key ministries, under the President himself, all in trouble

President Dissanayake currently holds three of the most powerful portfolios himself: Defence, Digital Technology, and Finance. All three are now widely seen as performing poorly. Many commentators say the President has “failed” visibly in all three areas. The justifications offered for these failures have themselves become confused, contradictory, and, at times, just plain pitiable.

The overall picture is one of a government that looks helpless, reduced to making excuses and whining from the podium.

A cautious hope for recovery

There are still nearly three years left in this government’s term. There is time to course-correct, if they act quickly. We sincerely hope the government manages to shed this sense of helplessness and confusion, and finds a way to truly serve the country.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)

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Cricket and the National Interest

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The appointment of former minister Eran Wickremaratne to chair the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee is significant for more than the future of cricket. It signals a possible shift in the culture of governance even as it offers Sri Lankan cricket a fighting possibility to get out of the doldrums of failure. There have been glorious patches for the national cricket team since the epochal 1996 World Cup triumph. But these patches of brightness have been few and far between and virtually non-existent over the past decade. At the centre of this disaster has been the failures of governance within Sri Lanka Cricket which are not unlike the larger failures of governance within the country itself. The appointment of a new reform oriented committee therefore carries significance beyond cricket. It reflects the wider challenge facing the country which is to restore trust in public institutions for better management.

The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne brings a professional administrator with a proven track record into the cricket arena. He has several strengths that many of his immediate predecessors lacked. Before the ascent of the present government leadership to positions of power, Eran Wickremaratne was among the handful of government ministers who did not have allegations of corruption attached to their names. His reputation for financial professionalism and integrity has remained intact over many years in public life. With him in the Cricket Transformation Committee are also respected former cricketers Kumar Sangakkara, Roshan Mahanama and Sidath Wettimuny together with professionals from legal and business backgrounds. They have been tasked with introducing structural reforms and improving transparency and accountability within cricket administration.

A second reason for this appointment to be significant is that this is possibly the first occasion on which the NPP government has reached out to someone associated with the opposition to obtain assistance in an area of national importance. The commitment to bipartisanship has been a constant demand from politically non-partisan civic groups and political analysts. They have voiced the opinion that the government needs to be more inclusive in its choice of appointments to decision making authorities. The NPP government’s practice so far has largely been to limit appointments to those within the ruling party or those considered loyalists even at the cost of proven expertise. The government’s decision in this case therefore marks a potentially important departure.

National Interest

There are areas of public life where national interest should transcend party divisions and cricket, beloved of the people, is one of them. Sri Lanka cannot afford to continue treating every institution as an arena for political competition when institutions themselves are in crisis and public confidence has become fragile. It is therefore unfortunate that when the government has moved positively in the direction of drawing on expertise from outside its own ranks there should be a negative response from sections of the opposition. This is indicative of the absence of a culture of bipartisanship even on issues that concern the national interest. The SJB, of which the newly appointed cricket committee chairman was a member objected on the grounds that politicians should not hold positions in sports administration and asked him to resign from the party. There is a need to recognise the distinction between partisan political control and the temporary use of experienced administrators to carry out reform and institutional restructuring. In other countries those in politics often join academia and civil society on a temporary basis and vice versa.

More disturbing has been the insidious campaign carried out against the new cricket committee and its chairman on the grounds of religious affiliation. This is an unacceptable denial of the reality that Sri Lanka is a plural, multi ethnic and multi religious society. The interim committee reflects this diversity to a reasonable extent. The country’s long history of ethnic conflict should have taught all political actors the dangers of mobilising communal prejudice for short term political gain. Sri Lanka paid a very heavy price for decades of mistrust and division. It would be tragic if even cricket administration became another arena for communal suspicion and hostility. The present government represents an important departure from the sectarian rhetoric that was employed by previous governments. They have repeatedly pledged to protect the equal rights of all citizens and not permit discrimination or extremism in any form.

The recent international peace march in Sri Lanka led by the Venerable Bhikkhu Thich Paññākāra from Vietnam with its message of loving kindness and mindfulness to all resonated strongly with the masses of people as seen by the crowds who thronged the roadsides to obtain blessings and show respect. This message stands in contrast to the sectarian resentment manifested by those who seek to use the cricket appointments as a weapon to attack the government at the present time. The challenges before the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee parallel the larger challenges before the government in developing the national economy and respecting ethnic and religious diversity. Plugging the leaks and restoring systems will take time and effort. It cannot be done overnight and it cannot succeed without public patience and support.

New Recognition

There is also a need for realism. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee does not guarantee success. Reforming deeply flawed institutions is always difficult. Besides, Sri Lanka is a small country with a relatively small population compared to many other cricket playing nations. It is also a country still recovering from the economic breakdown of 2022 which pushed the majority of people into hardship and severely weakened public institutions. The country continues to face unprecedented challenges including the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah and the wider global economic uncertainties linked to conflict in the Middle East. Under these difficult circumstances Sri Lanka has fewer resources than many larger countries to devote to both cricket and economic development.

When resources are scarce they cannot be wasted through corruption or incompetence. Drawing upon the strengths of all those who are competent for the tasks at hand regardless of party affiliation or ethnic or religious identity is necessary if improvement is to come sooner rather than later. The burden of rebuilding the country cannot rest only on the government. The crisis facing the country is too deep for any single party or government to solve alone. National recovery requires capable individuals from across society and from different sectors such as business and civil society to work together in areas where the national interest transcends party politics. There is also a responsibility on opposition political parties to support initiatives that are politically neutral and genuinely in the national interest. Not every issue needs to become a partisan battle.

Sri Lanka cricket occupies a special place in the national consciousness. At its best it once united the country and gave Sri Lankans a sense of pride and international recognition. Restoring integrity and professionalism to cricket administration can therefore become part of the larger task of national renewal. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee, while it does not guarantee success, is a sign that the political leadership and people of the country may be beginning to mature in their approach to governance. In recognising the need for competence, integrity and bipartisan cooperation and extending it beyond cricket into other areas of national life, Sri Lanka may find the way towards more stable and successful governance..

by Jehan Perera

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From Dhaka to Sri Lanka, three wheels that drive our economies

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Court vacation this year came with an unexpected lesson, not from a courtroom but from the streets of Dhaka — a city that moves, quite literally, on three wheels.

Above the traffic, a modern metro line glides past concrete pillars and crowded rooftops. It is efficient, clean and frequently cited as a symbol of progress in Bangladesh. For a visitor from Sri Lanka, it inevitably brings to mind our own abandoned light rail plans — a project debated, politicised and ultimately set aside.

But Dhaka’s real story is not in the air. It is on the ground.

Beneath the elevated tracks, the streets belong to three-wheelers. Known locally as CNGs, they cluster at junctions, line the edges of markets and pour into narrow roads that larger vehicles avoid. Even with a functioning rail system, these three-wheelers remain the city’s most dependable form of everyday transport.

Within hours of arriving, their importance becomes obvious. The train may take you across the city, but the journey does not end there. The last mile — often the most complicated part — belongs entirely to the three-wheeler. It is the vehicle that gets you home, to a meeting or simply through streets that no bus route properly serves.

There is a rhythm to using them. A destination is mentioned, a price is suggested and a brief negotiation follows. Then the ride begins, edging into traffic that feels permanently compressed. Drivers move with instinct, adjusting routes and squeezing through gaps with a confidence built over years.

It is not polished. But it works.

And that is where the comparison with Sri Lanka becomes less about what we lack and more about what we already have.

Back home, the three-wheeler has long been part of daily life — so familiar that it is often discussed only in terms of its problems. There are frequent complaints about fares, refusals or the absence of meters. More recently, the industry itself has become entangled in politics — from fuel subsidies to regulatory debates, from election-time promises to periodic crackdowns.

In that process, the conversation has shifted. The three-wheeler is often treated as a problem to be managed, rather than a service to be strengthened.

Yet, seen through the experience of Dhaka, Sri Lanka’s system begins to look far more settled — and, in many ways, ahead.

There is a growing structure in place. Meters, while not perfect, are widely recognised. Ride-hailing apps have added transparency and reduced uncertainty for passengers. There are clearer expectations on both sides — driver and commuter alike. Even small details, such as designated parking areas in parts of Colombo or the increasing standard of vehicles, point to an industry slowly moving towards professionalism.

Just as importantly, there is a human element that remains intact.

In Sri Lanka, a three-wheeler ride is rarely just a transaction. Drivers talk. They offer directions, comment on the day’s news, or share local knowledge. The ride becomes part of the social fabric, not just a means of getting from one point to another.

In Dhaka, the scale of the city leaves less room for that. The interaction is quicker, more direct, shaped by urgency. The service is essential, but it is under constant pressure.

What stands out, across both countries, is that the three-wheeler is not a temporary or outdated mode of transport. It is a necessity in dense, fast-growing Asian cities — one that fills gaps no rail or bus system can fully address.

Large infrastructure projects, like light rail, are important. They bring efficiency and long-term capacity. But they cannot replace the flexibility of a three-wheeler. They cannot reach into narrow streets, respond instantly to demand or provide that crucial last-mile connection.

That is why, even in a city that has invested heavily in modern rail, Dhaka still runs on three wheels.

For Sri Lanka, the lesson is not simply about what could have been built, but about what should be better managed and valued.

The three-wheeler industry does not need to be politicised at every turn. It needs steady regulation — clear fare systems, proper licensing, safety standards — alongside encouragement and recognition. It needs to be seen as part of the solution to urban transport, not as a side issue.

Because for thousands of drivers, it is a livelihood. And for millions of passengers, it is the most immediate and reliable form of mobility.

The tuk-tuk may not feature in grand policy speeches or infrastructure blueprints. It does not run on elevated tracks or attract international attention. But on the ground, where daily life unfolds, it continues to do what larger systems often struggle to do — show up, adapt and keep moving.

And after watching Dhaka’s streets — crowded, relentless, yet functioning — that small, three-wheeled vehicle feels less like something to argue over and more like something to get right.

(The writer is an Attorney-at-Law with over a decade of experience specialising in civil law, a former Board Member of the Office of Missing Persons and a former Legal Director of the Central Cultural Fund. He holds an LLM in International Business Law)

 

by Sampath Perera recently in Dhaka, Bangladesh 

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