Connect with us

Features

Two AI Oracles, two contradictory prophecies

Published

on

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) operates in a world where information travels at the speed of light, where fortunes are made and lost in milliseconds, and where the traditional gatekeepers of financial integrity—regulators, auditors, and human oversight—struggle to keep pace. Now, add artificial intelligence (AI) to this volatile mix, and we face an unprecedented threat that demands our immediate attention.

A recent academic article, by Professor Tom C.W. Lin from Temple University’s law school, presents a sobering analysis of how AI-driven misinformation and market manipulation pose existential risks to financial markets, globally.

The May 2023 Wake-Up Call: Markets Too Fast to Police

On a Monday morning in May 2023, AI-generated images showed an explosion near the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. Within nine minutes, before authorities could debunk the fake images, the US stock market lost $500 billion in value. Nine minutes. Half a trillion dollars. Based on completely fabricated content created by artificial intelligence.

If this can happen in the highly sophisticated, heavily regulated American market, with billions spent on surveillance and enforcement, what chance does the CSE have?

The reality is stark: everything that can be manipulated by AI will be manipulated by AI. The technology is accessible, increasingly cheap, and advancing at exponential rates. Meanwhile, our regulatory frameworks, designed for an analog age of human traders and paper trails, are woefully inadequate for this new reality.

When Artificial Intelligence Can’t Even Agree with Itself, Why Should You Trust it with Your Money?

I just conducted an experiment that should terrify every investor in the Colombo Stock Exchange. I asked two different AI systems to analyze the same market and recommend stocks. The results weren’t just different; they were diametrically opposed. And that contradiction reveals something far more dangerous than any single market manipulation scheme. Let me show you exactly what happened.

The Great AI Contradiction

AI Assistant #1’s Stock Picks (Based on a descriptive prompt; fundamentals and technical) – See Table 1

AI Assistant #2’s Stock Picks (Based on a prompt basically on technical analysis) – See Table 2

Notice the problem?

Commercial Bank appears in both lists—but AI #1 says buy at Rs. 193.75 for conservative long-term holding, while AI #2 says wait for a breakout above Rs. 198 for aggressive momentum trading. One AI warns against speculative momentum plays with high RSI readings. The other AI actively recommends buying stocks on breakouts—the very definition of momentum trading.

They’re using the same market data. They’re both “intelligent” systems. Yet they’ve reached completely opposite investment philosophies. But here’s the twist that should concern Sri Lankan investors even more: the same AI technology that created those deepfakes is now being used to generate the stock recommendations you’re reading, including the two contradictory analyses above.

Why This Matters to Your CSE Portfolio Right Now

Let’s ground this in brutal reality. Professor Lin reveals that AI-driven trading algorithms now account for over 60% of US equity transactions. These systems can execute thousands of trades per second, engaging in “spoofing” and “pinging” strategies—placing and cancelling orders in milliseconds to manipulate prices.

Meanwhile, AI recommendation engines are proliferating across investment platforms, each trained on different data sets, using different algorithms, reaching different conclusions. Some tell you to buy. Others tell you to sell. Same stock. Same moment. Contradictory advice. Which one is right? Here’s the terrifying answer: potentially neither.

The Three Layers of AI-Driven Market Chaos

Layer 1: AI Can’t Agree with Itself

: The contradiction between my two AI analyses isn’t a bug, it’s a feature of how these systems work. AI #1 was prompted on both fundamentals and technical tools on market manipulation risks and behavioural finance showing that retail investors destroy wealth through active trading. AI #2 was prompted just on technical analysis patterns and momentum signals. Both are “correct” within their exploring parameters and both are potentially dangerous if followed blindly. Now multiply this by thousands of AI systems making millions of recommendations daily, and you begin to understand the chaos.

Layer 2: AI Can Manipulate Markets Faster Than Humans Can Think

: Consider the stocks in AI #2’s recommendation list. Several show “no recent quote found” meaning there’s insufficient liquidity for reliable trading. Yet these appear on a recommendation table alongside liquid stocks.

An AI system doesn’t care about liquidity constraints the way a human analyst should. It sees patterns in historical data and extrapolates—often disastrously. High-frequency trading algorithms can exploit these gaps, creating fake liquidity that disappears the moment retail investors try to trade. The CSE’s relatively small size means this problem magnifies exponentially. A coordinated AI-driven manipulation of a mid-cap stock could create cascading failures across the entire index.

Layer 3: The Geopolitical Wildcard

: Sri Lanka’s strategic location and economic vulnerabilities make us an attractive target for economic warfare disguised as market manipulation. Nation-states like Russia, China, and Iran have already employed AI-driven disinformation campaigns, as documented in recent intelligence reports.

The “dual use” nature of AI means the same technology powering your stock recommendations could be weaponised to destabilise our markets. And because these attacks occur through global networks at algorithmic speeds, attribution proves nearly impossible even when damage is obvious.

The Liar’s Dividend and the Truthteller’s Tax

Professor Lin introduces two concepts that explain why this gets worse over time:

The Liar’s Dividend:

As AI-generated misinformation proliferates, liars benefit because their denials become more believable. “That video of our CEO announcing losses? Obviously a deepfake.” Even when it’s real.

The Truthteller’s Tax:

Legitimate companies must spend increasing resources proving authenticity—audits, verification systems, blockchain certificates. Honest actors bear costs that dishonest actors avoid.

This erosion of trust doesn’t just create volatility. It fundamentally undermines the information infrastructure that allows markets to function.

What the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Teaches Us

Online speculation about a hypothetical bank run, amplified by social media, helped trigger an actual bank run on America’s 16th-largest bank. AI-generated misinformation could replicate this scenario against any Sri Lankan financial institution tomorrow, regardless of underlying soundness. Both my AI analyses recommend Commercial Bank, citing strong fundamentals. But fundamentals become irrelevant when an AI-generated deepfake of the CEO discussing liquidity problems goes viral on WhatsApp before anyone can debunk it.

What Smart Investors Should Do Now

Given these realities, here’s the only rational response:

1. Recognise that all AI recommendations, including this analysis, are probabilistic guesses. Neither AI system “knows” what Commercial Bank will do. Their pattern-matching machines make educated guesses based on historical correlations that may no longer hold in an AI-dominated market.

2. Embrace radical skepticism toward technical indicators. AI #2’s recommendation table shows precise support/resistance levels and breakout triggers. But when algorithms can place and cancel thousands of orders per millisecond, these levels become meaningless. That Rs. 575 “breakout” on LOLC? An AI system could blast through it in seconds if programmed to do so.

3. Default to passive long-term strategies. Warren Buffett’s advice becomes even more relevant. low-cost index funds held for extended periods. This inherently protects against manipulation of individual stocks and reduces vulnerability to AI-induced volatility. The data overwhelmingly shows that active trading by retail investors destroys wealth—they buy high and sell low, reacting to noise rather than fundamentals. In an AI-driven market, this tendency becomes catastrophic.

4. Demand transparency and human accountability. If your broker uses AI for recommendations, demand to know: What data trained the system? How often are recommendations wrong? Who takes responsibility when AI advice loses money?

Most importantly: Always verify through multiple independent sources before trading.

What Regulators Must Do Immediately

The Securities and Exchange Commission faces an impossible task: Regulating AI systems that evolve faster than rules can be written. But within existing authority, they can.

Mandate AI Disclosure

: Any listed company using AI for trading must disclose it publicly, including safeguards against manipulation.

Stress Test for AI Scenarios

: Require financial institutions to simulate AI-driven bank runs, flash crashes, and coordinated attacks.

Invest in Technological Capacity

: The SEC using outdated tools to oversee AI-driven markets is like bringing typewriters to combat machine guns.

Regional Cooperation:

Market manipulation operates across borders. So must our response.

The Uncomfortable Truth

The contradiction between my two AI analyses reveals something profound: we’ve created systems we don’t fully understand, deployed them in markets that govern our collective prosperity, and hoped for the best. The intelligence behind AI may be artificial, but its capacity for damage is very real. We’ve been warned.

For investors contemplating entry into any CSE stock based on AI recommendations, whether it’s the conservative approach of AI #1 or the aggressive technical triggers of AI #2, should be aware that:

You’re not just trading against other humans anymore. You’re competing against algorithms that can process information, execute trades, and manipulate markets at speeds beyond human comprehension. And those algorithms can’t even agree with each other.

The playing field isn’t just uneven, it’s fundamentally broken. Adapt your strategy accordingly, or risk collateral damage in a technological revolution that shows no signs of slowing.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Features

Eastern University and the making of a culture of peace

Published

on

by Jehan Perera

There is an important change in the way peace is being understood in Sri Lanka. The notion that peacebuilding is not simply the responsibility of governments, politicians and peace organisations, but is also a responsibility of educational institutions, appears to be permeating the consciousness of at least a section of the academic community. This was visible on International Peace Day at an event held at Eastern University by the Faculty of Health-Care Sciences. The event was unusual not least because the medical and nursing faculty of the university had decided that peacebuilding was relevant to its academic and professional responsibilities.

Peacebuilding has too often been treated as something undertaken after conflict, when the fighting has stopped and the immediate task is to rebuild relationships between communities. But peace cannot be sustained by governments and peace organisations alone. If it is to become long lasting, the values and practices of peace have to become part of the institutions through which a society educates its younger generations. Universities and other educational institutions are therefore important to peacebuilding. They are among the places where the foundations of a culture of peace can either be built or neglected.

The experience of the Faculty of Health-Care Sciences at Eastern University provides a practical example of what this can mean. Led by its Dean, Prof Thillainathan Sathaananthan, the faculty organised an event which went beyond the ordinary academic scope of a medical faculty. University academics are experts in writing project proposals and applying for research grants. On this occasion, the members of the Faculty of Health-Care Sciences used those skills to apply for a UNESCO grant that they won to conduct an International Peace Day event. The significance lies less in the Rs 200,000 grant than in the decision to use the university’s institutional capacity and resources to invest in peacebuilding. The event at Eastern University needs to be understood as more than a successful university programme. It represents a possible paradigm shift in peace thinking.

Institutional Commitment

The Peace Day event obtained the support of the university administration, including Vice Chancellor Prof P Peratheepan, and reached out to secondary schools in the vicinity to mobilise their attendance. The event itself was meticulously organised. There were cultural items including traditional and modern dance and song in the three languages, performed by combinations of solo, duet and multiple singers, dancers and actors drawn in part from nearby secondary schools. There was a panel discussion by senior academics on the general theme of peacebuilding and how to prepare for it. A discussion among the students followed, where each student spoke on behalf of a religion that was not theirs. This is significant because peacebuilding cannot remain an idea discussed by specialists at conferences. It has to become part of the way institutions educate and prepare people for life in a plural society.

The Faculty of Health-Care Sciences at Eastern University has provided a model through its Peace Medicine course modules that were introduced to the curricular as a compulsory core course over 10 years ago. Two senior academics, Dr Kuveriel Eliyas Karunakaran and Dr Thillainathan Sathaananthan, have written a book on “Peace Medicine- A Health Care Concern” that was published five years ago. Its Peace Medicine Module integrates principles of medical ethics, compassion, equity, social justice and community engagement into health education and practice. In his introduction, former Vice Chancellor of Eastern University, Prof T Jayasingam noted “This book is an introduction to a theme which had already been operating in the Faculty of Health Care Sciences as a course.”

Doctors, nurses and health workers know better than anyone the harm that war and violence does. They are the people who treat the wounds and trauma that violence leaves behind. In a hospital, a patient is not asked what their religion or ethnicity is before they are treated. Health care is one of the places where peace is practised every day. The Faculty has therefore found a way of connecting its professional responsibilities with the wider social responsibility of peacebuilding. The question is whether this experience can be replicated throughout the country, at universities and at other educational institutions, so that peacebuilding becomes part of the consciousness of education itself. If that happens on a sufficient scale, it can begin to generate a culture of peace that becomes increasingly difficult to reverse.

Local Action

The Eastern University event corresponded closely to the United Nations theme for this year’s International Day of Peace, “Invest in Peace – For Everyone, Everywhere, Every Day”, which honours the “everyday architects of peace”, people driving local action, laying the groundwork for stability and building lasting peace from the ground up. The emphasis on investment is important. An investment means that something is put in: time, courage and resources. There is no more violent conflict in Sri Lanka today. But the absence of war does not automatically produce a culture of peace. The factors that fed the country’s conflict have not disappeared from the world. Racism, corruption and the violation of laws and human rights are the raw materials of conflict. So too are unresolved grievances, discrimination and the failure to recognise the suffering of others.

A country that does not deal with its past does not escape it. The past can return in the next generation. This is why the experience of Eastern University needs to be replicated countrywide, both at universities and at other educational institutions. The objective should not be to turn every academic discipline into peace studies. Rather, peacebuilding needs to become part of the consciousness of education itself. Eastern University shows that a medical faculty can develop Peace Medicine. A law faculty can examine the relationship between justice, rights and peace. Faculties of education can prepare teachers to work in diverse communities, while the humanities and social sciences can examine the different narratives through which communities understand their histories. Every institution can find its own way of making peacebuilding relevant to what it teaches.

Sri Lanka has had many declarations, pledges and programmes in the past. What matters is whether these produce changes in behaviour and institutional practice. Peacebuilding requires confronting difficult issues rather than avoiding them. It requires respect for different identities, but also engagement across those identities. It requires dealing with grievances in the present while also addressing unresolved issues from the past. It requires truth, accountability, reparations and guarantees of non-recurrence. It requires people to learn that the rights of another community do not diminish their own rights. The International Peace Day event at Eastern University was evidence of a change in the way at least some academics in a part of the country deeply affected by war are thinking about their responsibilities. Peace needs to be invested in and the most important investment will be in the minds of those who will inherit the future.

Continue Reading

Features

Quality assured education commodities

Published

on

by Ahilan Kadirgamar

I have always noticed the little paper tags that are inside the packaging of some products that say quality assured or quality control. I often wonder who might have checked the product and stamped that tag, but I also forget the tag soon enough. Decades later, when I entered academia, I was taken aback by the emphasis placed on quality assurance in our universities. It is not something that could be forgotten and done away with; the entire university system is obsessed with quality assurance.

Beginning with the staff induction programme, quality assurance is drilled into the newly recruited lecturers. It is the norm, not seen as doing any harm and only trying to improve quality. It is accepted as given, and not questioned. Quality Assurance Cells and Committees are omnipresent and hover above the Departments and, at times, even the Faculty Boards. Quality Assurance reviews are feared by the Deans and Vice Chancellors. University life itself seems secondary to the rule of quality assurance. What do we make of this system of quality assurance and what are its implications for our university system?

Corporate speak

Universities globally have been going through major changes with neoliberal education policies. In many countries, universities increasingly became corporatised to be run like businesses in the 1980s. As state support for universities declined, cost cutting became the norm. They started hiring adjunct or part-time staff. Many public non-fee levying universities around the world began to charge fees. Decade by decade, tuition fees became more and more exorbitant, forcing students to take student loans. The total student debt in the United States now stands at close to US$ 2 trillion; which is about 20 times the GDP of Sri Lanka. As the higher education landscape transformed in the West, university administrations began to recruit Presidents, Vice Chancellors and administrative officials with corporate backgrounds and experience.

Such corporatisation of universities in the West has since been imported into countries like Sri Lanka, introducing a new corporate vocabulary, including quality assurance, graduate competencies, programme outcomes, intended learning outcomes, etc. University teaching has become secondary to documenting so-called outcomes. The teacher-student relationship, the environment of the lecture hall and even administering the university have been over-determined by the processes of ensuring quality. How did such major changes come about in such a short time? Indeed, academics of just two generation ago, would never have heard of these terms and processes in the Sri Lankan university system.

World Bank Trojan horse

Since the early 2000s there have been a number of World Bank projects that have drastically changed the character of Sri Lankan universities. Quality assurance as a central agenda within universities, and many other changes to the working of our universities, came through these World Bank initiatives. The Improving Relevance and Quality of Undergraduate Education (IRQUE) project and Higher Education for the 21st Century (HETC) project were two such earlier projects that set up the Quality Assurance and Accreditation Unit (QAAU) under the University Grants Commission (UGC) and established systematic quality assurance reviews for state universities. The public often thinks these are grants from the World Bank to modernise our universities. However, they are not grants but loans.

The most recent such project, Accelerating Higher Education Expansion and Development (AHEAD) is a US$ 100 million loan from the World Bank implemented from 2018 to 2023, which consolidated the quality assurance structures from the earlier projects. Furthermore, these projects are implemented with tremendous arrogance, prioritising their implementation over all other concerns in the universities, when the project over six years for example accounts for just one fourth of our budget allocation for universities this year.

The AHEAD project drastically changed course curricula, sought to increase student enrolment in science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM) disciplines, commercialise the university research agenda and create university-business linkages. All of this was pushed to supposedly help us face development challenges. We have heard the ideological attack on our universities and even students claiming they are “unemployable graduates”. These changes to our higher education system were supposedly going to create jobs and increase employment.

The irony of the AHEAD project is that just as it was ending in 2023, apparently after having reached its targets, the Sri Lankan economy was collapsing. The World Bank often gets the direction of causality wrong. It is the economy that creates jobs for graduates, and not the training or kind of graduates that create jobs. It is decades of World Bank policies, and those of its ideological twin the IMF, that have led to such high youth unemployment, not only in Sri Lanka but also in many other countries in the global South.

Sri Lanka entered an IMF agreement in March 2023 and started a new Country Partnership Framework with the World Bank in June 2023. These programmes have little to say about, and actively discourage, government initiatives that aim to create an industrial policy or an employment creation policy. Instead, they push for austerity measures, which not only restrict the allocation for education among other sectors, but also end up contracting the economy to the detriment of increasing employment. Their goal is the commercialisation of higher education, to make universities into businesses and run them like factories.

In this context, the ideology of quality assurance is powerful. The International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), whose different standards are necessary for marketing, is the institution that came up with the concept of “quality assurance”. It promoted quality assurance as a process of identifying defected products. Therefore, when the World Bank promotes this conceptual framing, our students are, in fact, seen as products on the assembly line, with quality assurance processes aiming to prevent the release of defected products from the university system. For the US$ 100 million we borrowed for the AHEAD project and the many more million dollars in similar World Bank projects, there is no evidence of increased employment of graduates.

Commodity fetishism

Over a century and a half ago, Karl Marx critiqued the economic analysis prevalent at that time that associated some inherent or monetary value for commodities without considering the social relations that underlie the production of those commodities. Marx called this commodity fetishism. Furthermore, he theorised that such commodity fetishism was also a reason for the alienation of human beings from the world. If our labour and what we produce is seen devoid of the social relations that underlie them, we lose our connection with the people and the world. In this process we become alienated from what we produce and the world.

We are now in a world where our students themselves are fetishised as commodities for the market. Universities are no longer communities concerned about knowledge and human growth, but mere factories producing commodities, which have to be produced without defects to be marketed. In this way, quality assurance has become the cause for the alienation of students, academics and our universities themselves, from the larger relationship with our economy and society.

Our university system does need reform. It is grossly underfunded and not providing the financial support and facilities for our students. Universities have become hierarchical spaces without the academic freedom and democratic ethos necessary for producing knowledge. Academics and students need to engage more with their communities to make their learning and research meaningful, not to mention their contribution to and integration with society. However, when it comes to even questions of governance and regulation of the universities, such concerns are merely reduced to improving quality. In our contemporary times, this singular focus on quality assurance, as opposed to addressing the larger structural issues, is crippling our universities. There may be no way out, but to put back quality assurance where it started, those little tags on goods, to perhaps be noticed but quickly forgotten.

Ahilan Kadirgamar is a political economist and Senior Lecturer, University of Jaffna.

(Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies)

Continue Reading

Features

Thailand’s biggest new global star …

Published

on

The entertainment scene, globally, is agog with excitement, and, why not!

Yes, a new global star has emerged … from Thailand, and she hit the headlines by winning America’s Got Talent.

Rattikarn Amloy, known to millions by her stage name Nene Royal, was crowned the winner of America’s Got Talent (AGT) Season 21 at the live finale at Pasadena Civic Auditorium, California, taking home the USD 1 million grand prize.

The 16-year-old rocker, from the holiday island of Phuket (I’ve been to Phuket, courtesy Tourism Authority of Thailand), has struck a power chord around the world, and is the first Thai national ever to win the hit NBC show.

She beat nine other finalists, including runner-up magician Geno Ploeger, after a blistering final performance.

Nene’s story is pure rock and roll fairy-tale. She says she picked up a guitar at age seven, fell in love at the first chord, and taught herself mostly by watching videos online. That dedication earned her a music scholarship to Kajonkiet International School Phuket.

Her audition at America’s Got Talent — a swaggering, shredding rendition of The Cranberries’ classic ‘Zombie’ — exploded online, amassing over 200 million views across AGT’s platforms, more than any act this season.

She kept wowing: ‘Hysteria’ by Muse, then ‘Black Hole Sun’ by Soundgarden which earned her Spice Girl Mel B’s Golden Buzzer, sending her straight to the live shows.

For the final, she unleashed ‘Seven Nation Army’ by The White Stripes. Judge Howie Mandel shouted: “You should win. Give her the million, America.” Mel B praised her “mysterious, mystical stage presence”.

And for the grand finale, she lived every teen rocker’s dream — performing on stage, alongside US rock giants Linkin Park.

When host Terry Crews announced her as winner, the teenager collapsed to the stage floor in tears. “I’m very happy and you know I’m emotional right now,” she said.

And Thailand erupted. Her school held watch parties, posting: “You did it, congratulations, champion. We are so proud of you.”

Even Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul sent a personal congratulation. He had earlier hosted Nene at Government House in July, where she played guitar while he sang a Thai rock song. His office said her talent “brought pride to Thai people.”

Corporate Thailand also rallied behind her — Charoen Pokphand Foods, owned by billionaire Dhanin Chearavanont, even rented a giant billboard in Times Square, New York, to cheer her on.

With her blistering guitar solos, rock-ballad shrieks and fearless spirit, little Nene Royal has just become Thailand’s biggest new global star.

What’s more, this amazing teenager will be bringing her powerful vocals, guitar skills and signature rock-metal style to the stage, as opening act, before one of the world’s biggest rock bands, America’s Avenged Sevenfold, in Singapore, on 13 October.

Unfortunately, we are still to see a local artiste, grab the spotlight, on a global scale … like Thailand’s Nene.

Yes, they do shine, but mostly on social media, and that, too, with the aid of AI (Artificial Intellegence).

Continue Reading

Trending