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Trump’s global tariffs ‘victory’ may come at a high price
In April Donald Trump stunned the world by announcing sweeping new import tariffs – only to put most on hold amid the resulting global financial panic.
Four months later, the US president is touting what he claims are a series of victories, having unveiled a handful of deals with trading partners and unilaterally imposed tariffs on others, all without the kind of massive disruptions to the financial markets that his spring attempt triggered.
At least, so far.
Having worked to reorder America’s place in the global economy, Trump is now promising that the US will reap the benefits of new revenue, rekindle domestic manufacturing, and generate hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investment and purchases.
Whether that turns out to be the case – and whether these actions will have negative consequences – is still very much in doubt.
What is clear so far, however, is that a tide that was gently turning on free trade, even ahead of Trump’s second term, has become a wave crashing across the globe. And while it is reshaping the economic landscape, it hasn’t left the kind of wreckage in its wake that some might have predicted – though of course there is often a lag before impact is fully seen.
What’s more, for many countries, this has all served as a wake up call – a need to remain alive to fresh alliances.
And so, whilst the short term result might be – as Trump sees it – a victory, the impact on his overarching goals is far less certain. As are the long-term repercussions, which could well pan out rather differently for Trump – or the America he leaves behind after his current term.
For all the wrong reasons, 1 August had been ringed on international policymakers’ calendars. Agree new trading terms with the US by then, they’d been warned – or face potentially ruinous tariffs.
While White House trade adviser Peter Navarro predicted “90 deals in 90 days” and Trump offered an optimistic outlook on reaching agreements, the deadline always appeared to be a tall order. And it was.
By the time the end of July rolled around, Trump had only announced about a dozen trade deals – some no more than a page or two long, without the kind of detailed provisions standard in past negotiations.

The UK was first off the blocks, perhaps inevitably. Trump’s biggest bugbear is, after all, America’s trade deficit, and trade is in broad balance when it comes to the UK.
While the baseline 10% applied to most British goods may initially have raised eyebrows, it provided a hint of what was to follow – and in the end came as a relief compared to the 15% rate applied to other trading partners such as the EU and Japan, with whom the US has larger deficits; $240bn and $70bn respectively last year alone.
And even those agreements came with strings attached. Those countries that weren’t able to commit to, say, buying more American goods, often faced higher tariffs.
South Korea, Cambodia, Pakistan – as the list grew, and tariff letters were fired off elsewhere, the bulk of American imports are now covered by either an agreement or a presidential decree concluded with a curt “thank you for your attention to this matter”.
Capacity to ‘damage’ the global economy
Much has been revealed as a result of this.
First, the good news. The wrangling of the last few months means the most painful of tariffs, and recession warnings, have been dodged.
The worst fears – in terms of tariff levels and potential economic fallout (for the US and elsewhere) – have not been realised.

Second, the agreement of tariff terms, however unpalatable, reduced much of the uncertainty (itself wielded by Trump as a powerful economic weapon) for better – and for worse.
For better, in the sense that businesses are able to make plans, investment and hiring decisions that had been paused may now be resumed.
Most exporters know what size tariffs their goods face – and can figure out how to accommodate or pass on the cost to consumers.
That growing sense of certainty underpins a more relaxed mood in financial markets, with shares in the US notably gaining.

But it’s for the worse, in the sense that the typical tariff for selling into the US is higher than before – and more extreme than analysts predicted just six months ago.
Trump may have hailed the size of the agreement of the US with the EU – but these are not the tariff-busting deals we equated with tearing down trade barriers in previous decades.
The greatest fears, the warnings of potential disaster, have receded. But Ben May, Director of global macro forecasting at Oxford Economics, says that US tariffs had the capacity to “damage” the global economy in several ways.
“They are obviously raising prices in the US and squeezing household incomes,” he says, adding that the policies would also reduce demand around the world if the world’s largest economy ends up importing fewer goods.
Winners and losers: Germany, India and China
It’s not just about the size of tariff, but the scale of trading relationship with the US. So while India potentially faces tariffs of over 25% on its exports to the US, economists at Capital Economics reckon that, with US demand accounting for just 2% of that nation’s gross domestic product, the immediate impact on growth could be minor.
The news is not so good for Germany, though, where the 15% tariffs could knock more than half a percentage point off growth this year, compared to what was expected earlier in the year.
That’s due to the size of its automotive sector – unhelpful for an economy that may be teetering on the brink of recession.

Meanwhile, India became the top source of smartphones sold in the US in the last few months, after fears of what may lie in store for China prompted Apple to shift production.
On the other hand, India will be mindful that the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines – which face lower tariffs when selling to the US – may become relatively more attractive suppliers in other industries.
Across the board, however, there’s relief that the blow, at least, is likely to be less extensive than might have been. But what has been decided already points to longer-term ramifications for global trading patterns and alliances elsewhere.
And the element of jeopardy introduced into a long-established major relationship with the US, lent added momentum to the UK’s pursuit of closer ties with the EU – and getting a trade deal with India over the line.
For many countries, this has served as a wake up call – a need to remain alive to fresh alliances.
A very real political threat for Trump?
As details are nailed down, the implications for the US economy become clearer too.
Growth in the late spring there actually benefitted from a flurry of export sales, as businesses rushed to beat any higher tariffs imposed on American goods.
Economists expect that growth to lose momentum over the rest of the year.
Tariffs that have increased from an average of 2% at the beginning of the year to around 17% now have had a notable impact on US government revenue – one of the stated goals of Trump’s trade policy. Import duties have brought in more than $100bn so far this year – about 5% of US federal revenue, compared to around 2% in past years.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected tariff revenue this year to total about $300bn. By comparison, federal income taxes bring in around $2.5tn a year.
American shoppers remain in the front line, and have yet to see higher prices passed on in full. But as consumer goods giants such as Unilever and Adidas start to put numbers on the cost increases involved, some sticker shock, price rises, loom – potentially enough to delay Trump’s desired rate cut – and possibly a dent to consumer spending.

Forecasts are always uncertain, of course, but this represents a very real political threat for a president who promised to lower consumer prices, not take actions that would raise them.
Trump and other White House officials have floated the idea of providing rebate checks to lower-income Americans – the kinds of blue-collar voters who have fuelled the president’s political success – that would offset some of the pocketbook pain.
Such an effort could be unwieldy, and it would require congressional approval.
It’s also a tacit acknowledgment that simply boasting of new federal revenue to offset current spending and tax cuts, and holding out the prospect of future domestic job and wealth creation is politically perilous for a Republican party that will have to face voters in next year’s midterm state and congressional midterm elections.
The deals yet to be hammered out
Complicating all this is the fact that there are many countries where a deal is yet to be hammered out – most notably Canada and Taiwan.
The US administration has yet to pronounce its decisions for the pharmaceuticals and steel industry. The colossal issue of China, subject to a different deadline, remains unresolved.
Trump agreed to a negotiating extension with Mexico, another major US trading partner, on Thursday morning.
Many of the deals that have been struck have been verbal, as yet unsigned. Moreover it is uncertain if and how the strings attached to Trump’s agreements – more money to be spent purchasing American energy or invested in America – will actually be delivered on.
In some cases, foreign leaders have denied the existence of provisions touted by the president.

When it comes to assessing tariff agreements between the White House and various countries, says Mr May, the “devil is in the detail” – and the details are light.
It’s clear, however, that the world has shifted back from the brink of a ruinous trade war. Now, as nations grapple with a new set of trade barriers, Trump aims to call the shots.
But history tells us that his overarching aim – to return production and jobs to America – may meet with very limited success. And America’s long-time trading partners, like Canada and the EU, could start looking to form economic and political connections that bypass what they no longer view as a reliable economic ally.
Trump may be benefitting from the leverage afforded by America’s unique position at the centre of a global trading order that it spent more than half a century establishing. If the current tariffs trigger a foundational realignment, however, the results may not ultimately break in favour of the US.
Those questions will be answered over years, not weeks or months. In the meantime, Trump’s own voters may still have to pick up the tab – through higher prices, less choice and slower growth.
[BBC]
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Nipah virus outbreak in India triggers Asia airport screenings
An outbreak of the deadly Nipah virus in India’s West Bengal state has sparked concern in parts of Asia, with some tightening screening measures at airports.
Thailand has started screening passengers at three airports that receive flights from West Bengal. Nepal has also begun screening arrivals at Kathmandu airport and other land border points with India.
Five healthcare workers in West Bengal were infected by the virus early this month, one of whom is in a critical condition. Some 110 people who were in contact with them have been quarantined.
The virus can spread from animals to humans. It has a high death range – ranging from 40% to 75% – as there is no vaccine or medicine to treat it.
The Nipah virus can be transmitted from animals, like pigs and fruit bats, to humans. It can also spread person-to-person through contaminated food.
The World Health Organization has described Nipah in its top ten priority diseases, along with pathogens like Covid-19 and Zika, because of its potential to trigger an epidemic.
The incubation period ranges from four to 14 days.
People who contract the virus show a wide range of symptoms, or sometimes, none at all.
Initial symptoms may include fever, headaches, muscle pain, vomiting and sore throat. In some people, these may be followed by drowsiness, altered consciousness, and pneumonia.
Encephalitis, a sometimes-fatal condition that causes inflammation of the brain, may occur in severe cases.
To date, no drugs of vaccines have been approved to treat the disease.

The first recognised Nipah outbreak was in 1998 among pig farmers in Malaysia and later spread to neighbouring Singapore. The virus got its name from the village where it was first discovered.
More than 100 people were killed and a million pigs culled in an effort to contain the virus. It also resulted in significant economic losses for farmers and those in the livestock trade.
Bangladesh has borne the brunt in recent years, with more than 100 people dying of Nipah since 2001.
The virus has also been detected in India. Outbreaks were reported in West Bengal in 2001 and 2007.
More recently, the southern state of Kerala has been a Nipah hotspot. In 2018, 19 cases were reported of which 17 were fatal; and in 2023, two out of six confirmed cases later died.
At least five confirmed cases were reported as of last week, all of whom were linked to a private hospital in Barasat. Two nurses are being treated in an intensive coronary care unit, one of whom remains in “very critical” condition, local media reported citing the state’s health department.
No cases have yet been reported outside India, but several countries are stepping up precautions.
On Sunday, Thailand started screening passengers at three international airports in Bangkok and Phuket that receive flights from West Bengal. Passengers from these flights have been asked to make health declarations.
The parks and wildlife department has also implemented stricter screenings in natural tourist attractions.
Jurai Wongswasdi, a spokeswoman for the Department for Disease Control, told BBC Thai authorities are “fairly confident” about guarding against an outbreak in Thailand.
Nepal, too, has begun screening people arriving through the airport in Kathmandu and other land border points with India.
Meanwhile, health authorities in Taiwan have proposed to list the Nipah virus as a “Category 5 disease”. Under the island’s system, diseases classified as Category 5 are emerging or rare infections with major public health risks, that require immediate reporting and special control measures.
[BBC]
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India and EU announce landmark trade deal
The European Union and India have announced a landmark trade deal after nearly two decades of on-off talks, as both sides aim to deepen ties amid tensions with the US.
“We did it, we delivered the mother of all deals,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a media briefing in Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the deal “historic”.
It will allow free trade of goods between the bloc of 27 European states and the world’s most populous country, which together make up nearly 25% of global gross domestic product and a market of two billion people.
The pact is expected to significantly reduce tariffs and expand market access for both sides.
Von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa are in Delhi, where they met Modi at a bilateral summit.
The European Commission said the agreement would eliminate tariffs on most exports of chemicals, machinery and electrical equipment, as well as aircraft and spacecraft, following phased reductions. Significantly, duties on motor vehicles, currently as high as 110%, would be cut to 10% under a quota of 250,000 vehicles. That is six times larger than the 37,000-unit quota India granted to the UK in a deal signed last July, Bloomberg reported.
India’s deal with the EU is set to lower costs for European products entering the country – such as cars, machinery and agricultural food items, after import duties are reduced.
Brussels said the agreement would support investment flows, improve access to European markets and deepen supply-chain integration.
Delhi said almost all of its exports would get “preferential access” into the EU, with textiles, leather, marine products, handicrafts, gems and jewellery set to see a reduction or elimination of tariffs.
While commodities such as tea, coffee, spices and processed foods will benefit from the agreement, Delhi “has prudently safeguarded sensitive sectors, including dairy, cereals, poultry, soy meal, certain fruits and vegetables, balancing export growth with domestic priorities”, it said.
Delhi and Brussels have also agreed on a mobility framework that eases restrictions for professionals to travel between India and the EU in the short term.
“This is India’s biggest free trade agreement,” Modi said. “It will make access to European markets easier for India’s farmers and small business. It will also boost manufacturing and services sectors. It will boost innovative partnerships.”
The trade deal comes as both India and the EU contend with economic and geopolitical pressure from the US.
Delhi is grappling with 50% tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year amid talks aimed at securing a trade deal between India and the US that are still dragging on.
Last week, Trump threatened to escalate his trade war with European allies for opposing a US takeover of Greenland, before backing off.
That larger geopolitical context was evident in statements made by leaders.
On Tuesday, von der Leyen said: “This is the tale of two giants – the world’s second and fourth largest economies. Two giants which chose partnership in a true win-win fashion. A strong message that co-operation is the best answer to global challenges.”
A day before that Costa had said, without naming the US, that the trade deal would send an “important political message to the world that India and the EU believe more in trade agreements than in tariffs” at a time when protectionism is on the rise and “some countries have decided to increase tariffs”.
Von der Leyen and Costa arrived in Delhi over the weekend and were the chief guests at India’s colourful Republic Day celebrations on Monday.
On Tuesday, the leaders posed for photos with Modi, with the bonhomie between them evident.
The formal signing is likely to take place only later this year, after the agreement is approved by the European Parliament and the European Council.
Alongside the trade agreement, India and the European Union are also advancing separate talks on security and defence co-operation, and climate action.
On Tuesday, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said he had discussed a range of bilateral security and defence issues with the European Commission’s vice-president Kaja Kallas, including opportunities to integrate supply chains to build trusted defence ecosystems and develop future-ready capabilities.
The two sides are working on a draft security and defence partnership covering areas such as maritime security, cyber threats and defence dialogue, Reuters news agency reported.
The EU is India’s largest trading partner in goods, with bilateral merchandise trade reaching $136bn (£99.4bn) in 2024-25, nearly doubling over a decade.
Talks for a deal between them started in 2007 but stalled in 2013 over roadblocks in market access and regulatory demands. Discussions were formally restarted in July 2022.
Officials from both sides worked hard over the past few days to finalise outstanding chapters of the agreement, aiming to wrap it up before the EU leaders’ visit.
The agreement comes as pressure grows on Delhi and Brussels to secure alternative markets for exporters.
In the past seven months, India signed major trade agreements with the UK, Oman and New Zealand, and a 2024 pact signed with the four-nation European Free Trade Association bloc of Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein has come into effect. It signed a trade pact with Australia in 2023.
The EU, meanwhile, signed a trade deal with South American trade bloc Mercosur earlier this month after 25 years of negotiation.

[BBC]
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Sri Lanka women to tour West Indies for ODI and T20I series in February-March 2026
Sri Lanka women will tour the West Indiesfor a multi-format white-ball series in February-March. The tour will consist of three ODIs and three T20Is between February 20 to March 3.
All six games of the tour will be played at Grenada National Stadium. The first ODI will be on February 20, followed by games on February 22 and 25. The T20I series then starts on February 28, followed by games on March 1 and 3.
The T20I series, in particular, will be crucial as both teams look to build their prep towards the 2026 Women’s T20 World Cup in the UK this summer. Both West Indies and Sri Lanka are in Group 2 of the competition alongside hosts England, New Zealand and two qualifiers not yet determined.
Sri Lanka will be looking to win their first T20I series since their Asia Cup triumph of 2024. West Indies have won their last two T20I series at home against Bangladesh and South Africa.
Sri Lanka last toured the Caribbean for an ODI and T20I series in 2024. That tour saw the visitors win the ODIs 3-0 and the hosts claim the T20Is 2-1.
[Cricinfo]
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