Connect with us

Features

The Warming World

Published

on

Indian Ocean Dipole Negative Phase (Image courtesy NOAA.Climate.govt)

by Ifham Nizam

 

In 2023, the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that Sri Lanka annually spends about 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees (approx. USD 167 million), on climate-induced post-disaster contingent liabilities, which is around 0.4% of our GDP, a renowned climate scientist says.

Prof. Buddhi Marambe, Professor in Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, in an exclusive interview with The Island said that considering the climate impacts, the Climate Prosperity Plan of Sri Lanka launched in 2022 highlighted that the country needs USD 26.53 billion to build climate resilience (approx. USD 75 billion per year) during the period 2022-2030. Further, Sri Lanka has committed to become Carbon Net Zero by 2050 i.e. balancing the whole amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) released and the amount removed from the atmosphere, requiring USD 140 billion to achieve the target with international support.

Excerpts:

Q: Many people in Sri Lanka and in the whole world are worried about recent changes in the environmental temperatures. What exactly is happening?

Prof. Marambe

A: The unbearable heat, uncomfortable days and nights, human-health warnings, El Niño, Climate Change were common and have become the “Talk of the Town” over the past few months. Beyond any reasonable doubt, and with scientific proof, global warming has taken place mainly due to climate change. The long-term change in the average weather patterns have defined the local, regional and global climates, which is a fact and not a myth. The warming trend has taken place for a long time, however, unprecedented release of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), especially through fossil fuel burning and cutting down of forests, has escalated its pace significantly in the past century. In fact, the available records clearly states that the top 10 warmest years were in the 21stCentury and 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded to-date. Climate scientists, after a careful analysis of the warming trends in the first quarter of this year, have already predicted that 2024 would be the warmest year.

Historically, the naturally-occurring GHGs (Carbon Dioxide – CO2; Methane – CH4;and nitrous oxide N2O) have kept the earth’s surface warm enough to ensuring life on earth. However, by the name of development and industrial revolution that took place during 1750-1800 and beyond in the ‘developed countries’, the unprecedented release of GHGs to the atmosphere has made all of us to experience these negative impacts of climate change.
The excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by the human-induced enhanced levels of GHGs has caused the average global temperature to rise continuously. The most important point is that the GHGs are not the culprit, but the human being whose activities have contributed to increase emission of GHGs.

Q: Many are worried about the ozone layer depletion and El Niño. Can you explain these phenomena and let us know the link to climate change?

A: The ozone layer is like a sun-screen for the earth as it protects life by absorbing ultra-violet (UV) radiation from the sun reducing sunburn. There are ozone-depleting substances that can damage the ozone layer, allowing more UV radiation from the sun to pass through and troubling ecosystem health. The synthetic GHGs such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydro chlorofluorocarbons), and HFCs (hydro fluorocarbons), per fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are ozone-depleting substances that have added fuel to fire. Of these, the CFCs were widely banned as they are considered as ozone-depleting substances, aggravating the impact of climate change.
El Niño is a natural process that has been happening for centuries. It refers basically to the changes that take place in Pacific Ocean toward South America where the slowing down or change trade winds will increase the sea surface temperature closer to the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. The situation usually brings heavy rainfall towards South America, severe dryness to Australia and mixed reactions to many other parts of the world. Scientists have still failed to identify a strong link between ElNiño and climate. However, El Niño events increases global temperatures thus, aggravating global warming due to climate change. The ElNiño events take place usually once in 2-7 years.

Q: Recently, I have heard scientists speak of an event called Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD). What is it and how it can have an impact on Sri Lanka?

Indian Ocean Dipole Positive Phase (Image courtesy NOAA.Climate.govt)

 

A: As El Niño events takes place in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD) is a climate pattern that takes place in the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the Western part of the Indian Ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD.

The IOD positive phase has mostly coincided with ElNiño events, and have brought heavy rains to Sri
Lanka during the initial parts of the Mahaseason. This was clearly evident last year (2023), which was an El Niño year with an IOD positive phase that brought in heavy showers to Sri Lanka in the months of October to December. This severely affected the agriculture sector especially in the Central Highlands with prices of vegetable raising to heights that were unaffordable to many. Sri Lankan scientists were able to predict this in July 2023, and informed the relevant policy makers about the impending disaster. However, nothing much could be done as most of such alarms can only be sound with short lead time to the event.
Nevertheless, the government was able to implement to get farming community to start cultivating early in the month of October (especially the paddy farmers), with the onset of rains to conserve water in the reservoirs for its best use during the latter parts of the season and support land preparation during the following season.

Q: What are the economic impacts caused by the ElNiño events and Climate Change?

A: El Niño and La Niña (the opposite of ElNiño) can impact multiple different aspects of the ecosystem and world economy through floods and droughts. Losses are projected to cost trillions of dollars. Scientists have attributed a global loss of USD 2.1 Trillion and USD 3.9 Trillion due to the extreme El Niño events occurred in 1997-98 and 2015-16. Based on scientific estimates, the El Niño events could cause an additional loss of USD 33 Trillion to the global economy during the remainder of the 21stcentury.

As reported by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction in 2019, the climate-induced hazards in Sri Lanka have increased by 22-fold during the last decade compared to that of 1973-1983. This is alarming. Most of these events has coincided with the El Niño events. For example, the damages due to flooding during the period 1990-2018 has been estimated as over USD 2 billion dollars, and half of which has occurred in 2016 where Sri Lanka faced the heavy beating due to El Niño. Following the El Niño event in 2015/2016, Sri Lanka also experienced a La Niña event resulting in the loss of three consecutive cultivating seasons due to lack of rainfall. Consequently, Sri Lanka had to import about 747,000 metric tons of rice to the tune of USD 300 million to feed the population during the latter part of 2017.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in early July 2023, with more than 85% confidence, that El Niño is on the cards. Once effective, the ElNiño events can last for about a year. In 2023, the Department of Meteorology in Sri Lanka attributed the severe drought in July-September experienced in southern region of the country to the El Niño event, and we still feel its impact. Speculations are that another La Niña will follow this year and in such case, we may experience prolonged drought during the mid to latter part of 2024 affecting agriculture and overall livelihood of people of Sri Lanka.

In 2023, the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that Sri Lanka annually spends about 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees (approx. USD 167 million), on climate-induced post-disaster contingent liabilities, which is around 0.4% of our GDP. Considering the climate impacts, the Climate Prosperity Plan of Sri Lanka launched in 2022 highlighted that the country needs USD 26.53 billion to build climate resilience (approx. USD 75 billion per year) during the period 2022-2030. Further, Sri Lanka has committed to become Carbon Net Zero by 2050 i.e. balancing the whole amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) released and the amount removed from the atmosphere, requiring USD 140 billion to achieve the target with international support.

Q: What efforts have the country made in the policy perspectives to tackle climate change?

A: Sri Lanka has taken many efforts in the policy front to meet the climate challenge. The National Climate Change Policy of 2023 was launched on 2 December in Dubai by His Excellency the President of Sri Lanka at the 28thConference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Sri Lanka developed its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of 2021 committing to the global community to reduce GHG emissions by 14.5% by 2030, from that of 2020, in six economic sectors namely, energy, transport, industry, waste forestry and agriculture (including livestock). This voluntary contribution to reduce GHG emissions while being a low emitter (1.03 Mt of CO2 per capita) has been made in two segments, i.e. without (unconditional) and with (conditional) support from developed countries. Sri Lanka has also developed and the NDC Implementation Plan for the period 2021-2030. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) provides the proposed adaptation mechanisms and activities to climate change impacts. These together with the Climate Prosperity Plan of 2022 and the Carbon NetZero 2050 Roadmap and Strategic Plan, provides the required guidance to Sri Lankans to adapt to climate change impacts and also to minimize the contributions made in terms GHG emissions while ensuring sustainable development of the country.

What is required now is the sound implementation structures and mechanisms for the sound plans that are on paper, and commitments of climate-finance and technological interventions with capacity building from development partners and other international agencies to make efforts a ground-reality.



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Features

Complexities in global politics deepen as economic pressures intensify

Published

on

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. (BBC)

The present offer by the UK to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the missile technology field in particular comes as ‘a stitch in time’ and the initiative is also likely to be appreciated considerably by democratic opinion world wide for the possible morale-boosting effect it would have on Ukraine. Besides continuous arms support, the conviction that the world’s frontline democracies are behind it would prove a huge plus in Ukraine’s eyes in its grinding fightback against the Russian invasion.

While continued US support for Ukraine could not be considered ‘a given’ any more, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s words during a recent visit to Kyiv that the UK would stand by Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’ is the kind of assurance that Ukraine needs at present. For, the conflict in Ukraine is essentially a war of liberation conducted by the latter against an invader and deeply at issue here is the upholding of International Law and its foundational concepts, such as national sovereignty and a nation’s right to political self-determination. The world of democracy is of the firm view that the latter ideals cannot be compromised, come what may.

The UK has its work cut out in this connection. It would find it difficult to convince the Trump administration that it should staunchly stand by Ukraine but it could campaign vigorously with the rest of the West and the EU fold in particular to unflaggingly support the embattled and over-run country.

Ukraine has shown an impressive adeptness in using drone technology in particular against her enemy and has even manufactured her own hardware in this respect but using the relevant blueprints handed over by the UK for the manufacture of more sophisticated cruise missiles, for instance, may prove financially difficult, going forward. It is left to be seen whether the UK and the rest of the West who are with Ukraine will continue to be with her, considering their own rising financial constraints.

The latter impediments could only multiply in the future. Oil, gas and energy prices are on the rise and the latter costs are glaringly reflected in kitchens and meal tables the world over. As we go along consumer discontent would steadily intensify and governments, East and West, would need to figure out with considerable rigour and foresight how such disaffection could be ably managed. Failing which, in most democratic societies, the chances are that publics would be out on the streets demanding that their grievances be redressed forthwith.

These rising concerns are reflected in a recent move by some EU governments to consider imposing what is described as ‘a windfall tax’ on the profits specified major oil companies operating within their shores have made in the wake of the US-Israel war on Iran. The rationale apparently is to use such tax earnings to cushion the rising cost of living of their publics and bolster the respective countries’ social expenditure.

In a recent letter to the president of the EU Council the EU governments referred to said, among other things, while drawing attention to the ‘discontent that is growing over the rising cost of living’: ‘A common approach’ is needed that ‘ensures those who profit from the crisis contribute their share to reducing the burden on the general population.’ Meanwhile, Oxfam with reference to the above development is on record as calling for a ‘permanent windfall tax of at least 50% on profits exceeding a 10% return on investment.’

Such are the rising economic pressures on the majority of Western governments. The question to be posed is how consistent they would be in their assistance to Ukraine if they decide consensually to stand by her. The soaring cost of living in the West compels the conclusion that there could be no guarantee that Western assistance to Ukraine, particularly in the defense and security fields, would be of a longstanding kind.

Of particular concern would be the fact that the weapons systems on offer from the UK to Ukraine could be increasingly costly to manufacture going forward. Besides they would need to be manufactured and put into action without delay.

However, these considerations should in no way deflect Ukraine’s supporters from the principled policy stance of defending her to the extent possible. Because at issue is the defense of International Law and the democratic system of government from their enemies; fascism and authoritarian rule.

While during World Wars 1 and 2 the US was with the major democracies of the West, this time around with regard to Ukraine, the US has chosen to be at cross-purposes with them. For instance, in relation to tariff matters and defense expenditure, in the NATO context, the US is pursuing a hard line which puts it at polar opposites with the West. Thus it is no longer possible to talk unreservedly of a ‘Western democratic alliance’. Put plainly, the cause of democratic development has been weakened.

A measure of relief for the supporters of Ukraine in the West could come by way of the upcoming mid-term polls in the US. If the Democratic Party fares well in them the pressure would be on the Trump administration to defer to opposition opinion at home, accommodate the best interests of Ukraine in its West European policy and perhaps even work towards a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis in cooperation with Russia. Accordingly, the Democratic Party would need to put the Trump administration on the defensive, so to speak.

Until such time Ukraine’s Western supporters have no choice but to remain committed to it, ensure its steadfast defense against the invasion and work judiciously towards keeping the economic pressures at home in check.

Interestingly, at the present juncture in international politics the US could be said to be more weak than strong. For example, it has to some extent been militarily humbled by Iran; so much so it is resorting to economic means to keep Iran in check.

In keeping with this strategy, the US has launched ‘a new big wave of anti-Iran economic sanctions’ at the time of writing, aimed at cutting Iran away from all its major income sources. Some of these relate to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. The hoped for result is the complete severance of Iran from the US dollar system.

However, while the UK and EU have no choice but to adhere to their policy of backing Ukraine, going forward they would need to dialogue more closely with the US and ensure that it cooperates with them on outstanding questions, such as Ukraine and the strengthening of democracy. The well being of the world is served when the latter aim is pursued.

Continue Reading

Features

“Envisioning Sri Lanka: Beyond Recovery”

Published

on

Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya opening the event

OPA 39th Annual Conference calls for Sri Lanka to move Beyond Recovery towards Sustainable Transformation

The Orgnisation of Professional Associations (OPA) successfully concluded its 39th Annual Conference, held recently at the Cinnamon Grand Colombo, under the theme “Envisioning Sri Lanka: Beyond Recovery”.

Held under the patronage of Jayantha Gallehewa, President of the OPA, with the leadership and guidance of Tisara De Silva, President-Elect and Chairman of the 39th Annual Conference, the Conference brought together leading professionals, academics, business leaders and representatives of the public and private sectors to deliberate on Sri Lanka’s next phase of national development.

The Inaugural Session, on August 2026, was graced by Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, as the Chief Guest; Andrew Patrick, British High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, as the Guest of Honour; and Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute, Sri Lanka, as the Keynote Speaker.

In her address, Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya emphasised that overcoming the economic crisis alone should not be Sri Lanka’s ultimate objective, stressing that recovery must serve as the foundation for a broader economic and institutional transformation necessary for sustainable national progress. Reflecting on the difficult period experienced by the country, the Prime Minister noted that Sri Lanka had faced significant economic, social and institutional challenges, which had weakened public confidence and created uncertainty about the country’s future.

She stressed that “recovery only provides the foundation” and that Sri Lanka can move forward sustainably only by using that foundation to bring about meaningful transformation.

The Prime Minister observed that the theme of the OPA’s 39th Annual Conference, “Envisioning Sri Lanka: Beyond Recovery,” aptly encapsulated these national aspirations. She emphasised that Sri Lanka’s objective should not merely be to return to the conditions that existed before the crisis, but to forge a stronger national foundation characterised by robust institutions, a resilient economy, high-quality public services and an enabling environment in which every citizen has the opportunity to thrive.

She further underscored that Sri Lanka’s future development cannot be secured through economic growth and physical development alone. She emphasised that the effective mobilisation of the country’s knowledge, skills and professional expertise, is equally essential to achieving sustainable and inclusive national progress

The Technical Sessions held on 12 August 2026 brought together 19 distinguished experts and professionals representing academia, industry, banking and finance, public health, technology, management and business leadership. Their diverse expertise provided a multidisciplinary platform to examine the critical challenges, emerging opportunities and strategic choices that will shape Sri Lanka’s next phase of development, with particular emphasis on economic transformation, institutional strengthening, digitalisation, private-sector growth, human capital and sustainable development.

The deliberations were structured around four principal sub-themes: “Resilient Recovery and Sustainable Economic Development”; “Future Readiness: Innovation & Transformation”; “Policy for Impact: Advancing Equity, Sustainable Living, and National Well-Being”; and “Leadership, Governance and National Responsibility.”

Across these thematic areas, the sessions explored the structural reforms, institutional requirements and policy choices necessary to move Sri Lanka beyond economic stabilisation towards a more productive, competitive, resilient and inclusive economy. The discussions brought together diverse professional perspectives, enabling participants to examine national priorities through economic, technological, industrial, financial, social and governance lenses.

Particular emphasis was placed on the need to move beyond the diagnosis of problems towards pragmatic, evidence-based and implementable solutions. The deliberations recognised that sustainable national progress requires not only sound policies, but also effective institutions, professional competence, innovation, responsible leadership and the capacity to translate policy into tangible outcomes.

The sessions further underscored the importance of collaboration across sectors, recognising that Sri Lanka’s complex development challenges cannot be addressed in isolation. Stronger engagement among Government, private sector, professional associations, academia and civil society was identified as essential to fostering a coherent national response and ensuring that professional knowledge and expertise are effectively translated into policy and action.

Collectively, the Technical Sessions provided a substantive platform for knowledge exchange, critical reflection and forward-looking dialogue, reinforcing the OPA’s commitment to bringing the country’s professional expertise to bear on the task of building a resilient, innovative, equitable and prosperous Sri Lanka.

The OPA expressed its sincere appreciation to Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, the Chief Guest; Andrew Patrick, British High Commissioner to Sri Lanka and Guest of Honour; and Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute, Sri Lanka and Keynote Speaker, for their distinguished contributions to the Conference.

Much of what the 39th Annual Conference achieved would not have been possible without the leadership, commitment and generous contributions of Jayantha Gallehewa, President of the OPA; Tisara De Silva, President-Elect and Chairman of the 39th Annual Conference; Eng. Ravi Rupasinghe, General Secretary; Dharshana Wijemanne, Treasurer; Bhanu Wijayaratne, Convener & the Chairman of the Session Planning Committee of the 39th Annual Conference Committee, Past Presidents and Office Bearers; Presidents and representatives of Member Associations; members of the Executive Councils and General Forum; and the distinguished Session Chairmen, Resource Persons and professionals who shared their time, expertise and insights in pursuit of the Conference’s shared vision. The OPA remains immensely grateful to all those whose collective contributions enriched the 39th Annual Conference and strengthened its role as a meaningful platform for professional exchange, informed dialogue and national reflection.

Continue Reading

Features

Nostalgia for Lankans in Toronto …

Published

on

‘Avurudu Musical Show 2027,’ a uniquely styled musical Avurudu celebration … Ceymphony Band style.

For Sri Lankans living 14,000 kilometres from home, the sound of home has never felt closer — and that’s thanks to one man and his band.

Since stepping into the spotlight, Gamini Hemalal and the Ceymphony Band have turned into the heartbeat of the Sri Lankan community in Toronto.

Their mission is simple: bring the music, bring the memories, bring the people together. And it’s working.

What turned out to be the talk-of-the-town was their intimate musical evening with Sri Lanka’s legendary crooner Sohan Weerasinghe.

Sohan Weerasinghe: Had
everyone on their feet at the
Angus Glen Golf Club, in
Toronto, Canada

It was a ‘full house’ long before the big date. Tickets vanished within days — demand was that overwhelming.

According to those who were there, it was a truly amazing evening. The hall was packed, the energy electric. Sohan didn’t just sing — he owned the stage.

With his velvet vocals, his charm, and that signature style, he had everyone on their feet. The ladies, especially, couldn’t get enough. No wonder they call him “The Ladies’ Man!”

One attendee summed it up perfectly:

“We had so much fun. It is truly a blessing to have our kids around us, enjoying these beautiful moments together. Thank you, Gamini Hemalal, for such a wonderful evening, with an amazing crowd and an incredible atmosphere. Your hard work and dedication truly made it a special night.

“We also need to say a big thank you to the Ceymphony Band for delivering such an outstanding performance. You all were absolutely amazing! Our entire family had a fantastic time, and we truly enjoyed every moment.

Ceymphony Band: Extremely popular in the scene in Toronto

“Wishing you all continued success. Keep up the amazing work, we can’t wait for the next.”

And the next is already on the cards: ‘Halloween Pissu Baila Party 2026,’ on Friday, 30th October, at the famous Angus Glen Golf Club.

Gamini promises a crazy night of baila, music, dancing and Halloween vibes with the Ceymphony Band. Action runs from 8:00 PM to 12:00 midnight, with plenty of prizes to be won.

Gamini Hemalal: Amazing work for the Sri Lankan community,
in Toronto, Canada

Gamini is also putting together a special event, connected with the 2027 Avurudu celebrations — ‘Avurudu Musical Show 2027,’ a uniquely styled musical Avurudu celebration … Ceymphony Band style.

It’s scheduled to be held on Saturday, 10th April, 2027, also at the Angus Glen Golf Club.

Through music, Gamini Hemalal and Ceymphony are doing what diaspora bands do best — they’re shrinking the distance between two worlds.

One baila beat at a time, one full house at a time, they’re making sure that even in Canada, Sri Lankans feel like home.

Yes, there is plenty of action, indeed, for the Sri Lankan community in Toronto, Canada.

Continue Reading

Trending