Features

The US Secret to Staying on Top – My Talk with George Friedman

Published

2 years ago

2024/10/6

Thilina Walpola

George Friedman

by Nilantha Ilangamuwa

Forecasting geopolitics has been George Friedman’s life’s work; a historian renowned for his foresight into global shifts. In an era of global volatility, I had the opportunity to sit down with Friedman to discuss current world affairs, focusing on major powers such as the United States, Russia, and China. Notably, this was the first time he shared his insights on Sri Lanka, exploring its future in the context of a changing global landscape. As the founder of Geopolitical Futures and former chairman of Stratfor, Friedman’s experience and knowledge provided a comprehensive view of how global powers are shifting.

During our discussion, Friedman highlighted the surprising ways in which power dynamics have evolved, even beyond his own earlier predictions. Russia, deeply entangled in a prolonged war with Ukraine, and China, grappling with economic stagnation, have both faltered. In contrast, the United States, despite forecasts of decline, has reasserted itself with remarkable strength. According to Friedman, this resurgence is less about traditional hegemony and more about the unmatched economic and military power that the US continues to wield on the global stage.

Friedman reflected on Sri Lanka’s challenges as a small nation surrounded by larger powers like India, emphasizing the importance of strategic engagement. “A small country will develop in the context of larger countries. India is your neighbour. And India, like the United States, is ruthless in how it does business,” he noted. He advised Sri Lanka to avoid direct confrontations and adopt pragmatic strategies, while being transparent with its citizens. “Many governments, let’s say Sri Lanka, try to hide the pain… And then they get instability.” Reflecting on its history, he lamented, “Sri Lanka was a country that never found its place as it became a nation,” missing key opportunities to assert itself on the global stage.

Friedman also pointed out that many political leaders don’t approach governance with the mindset necessary for economic growth. “Political leaders tend not to be business leaders. They don’t think in terms of business,” he remarked. This, he believes, is a major obstacle to economic development in countries like Sri Lanka. Understanding how global business operates is crucial for fostering prosperity, and governments need to make strategic decisions based on that knowledge.

Despite the challenges Sri Lanka faces, Friedman expressed optimism about its future, highlighting the country’s beauty and the fondness people who have visited it share. “I’ve had friends who went there. It was a beautiful country,” he said. Sri Lanka, he believes, has great potential, but it must adopt long-term strategies and effective governance to realize it.

Turning to his earlier predictions about global powers, Friedman reflected on his analysis of Russia, China, and the United States. While much of his focus on these nations was correct, recent developments have altered their trajectories in unexpected ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine has stretched far longer than anticipated, and China, once seen as an unstoppable economic giant, now faces serious economic difficulties. As a result, rather than being weakened, the United States has emerged stronger than ever.

“The US has actually increased its power,” Friedman asserted, noting that America’s dominance stems from its unmatched economic and military strength. Economically, he pointed out, “China’s major importer of capital is the United States,” further illustrating how reliant global powers are on the US. This dominance, however, does not reflect traditional hegemony. Friedman explained, “I don’t consider this hegemony. Hegemony means that we are trying to create governments here and there. The United States is simply the most powerful economic power and the most military power.” For Friedman, this means the US doesn’t need to impose its will through coercion, as other nations depend on its economic and technological infrastructure.

A key aspect of Friedman’s analysis is his dismissal of the idea that the US dollar could be replaced as the global currency, describing it as “fanciful.” He argues that trust in the US dollar, along with the infrastructure supporting it, ensures its dominance in global trade. “Everybody accepts the dollar,” he said, adding that its strength lies in its stability, not conspiracy or manipulation. According to Friedman, efforts to shift away from the dollar are mostly theoretical, as no other currency holds the same trust globally.

Friedman’s assessment of China is similarly pragmatic. While China has made significant strides in building its economy and military, Friedman contends that much of this growth was due to its relationship with the US. “China’s economy took off because of the United States, because of American investment,” he explained. As a result, any slowdown in the US directly impacts China. Militarily, China is in a defensive position, particularly in the South China Sea, where it seeks to deter American influence.

Looking ahead, Friedman sees Poland emerging as a significant power in Europe. In his book The Next 100 Years, he predicted Poland’s rise, which recent events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have reinforced. Poland’s strategic position and growing military strength, coupled with its close relationship with the US, make it a pivotal player in the region. “Poland is now engaged in a massive military process. But it is also cutting free from Europe,” he noted, pointing to its increased leverage.

Friedman’s approach to Russia highlights the country’s historical insecurities and strategic miscalculations. Russia’s fear of invasion, stemming from past experiences with Napoleon and Hitler, drives its actions, particularly in Ukraine. Friedman explained, “Russia has been invaded twice… And in each case, they came up the same route towards Moscow.” This deep-rooted fear led to Russia’s aggressive response to Western influence in Ukraine, particularly after the 2014 uprising.

George Friedman predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, driven by its need to “close off Ukraine, make no attack possible,” despite overestimating its military capabilities. He notes, “Sometimes the Russians make strategic decisions that they can’t support with their military capabilities,” pointing to the prolonged war in Ukraine as evidence of this miscalculation. Russia’s failure to grasp its limitations and adversarial approach to potential allies isolates it globally. Turning to the European Union, Friedman calls it “misconceived,” arguing, “You can’t have a banking system that includes the Germans and the Italians.” He highlights Brexit as proof that the EU’s structure fails to accommodate its members’ diverse needs, noting, “The British… could not live under the auspices of a central government.” Ultimately, Friedman is “very negative about the ability of the EU to survive on this basis,” questioning its long-term sustainability.

George Friedman argues that Israel’s intelligence failures stem from a deeper issue of focusing too much on military solutions and neglecting diplomacy. He believes Israel’s reliance on military responses has perpetuated a cycle of conflict, stating, “Israel has got to… understand that a military problem does not have to be settled militarily.” This, he claims, prevents Israel from turning adversaries into allies, as the US did with Japan after World War II.

Friedman also critiques Israel’s unwillingness to recognize its strategic failures. He observes, “The Israelis are not likely to recognize that they had a failure,” pointing to missed opportunities to prevent conflicts, such as the rise of Hamas. He suggests that resolving the Palestinian issue is key to any long-term peace, stating, “There could be [a solution], but recognizing that the Arabs will not give up until the Palestinian problem is settled.”

On broader global issues, Friedman addresses the necessity of selective protectionism, arguing that it is essential for national sovereignty. He challenges the blanket condemnation of protectionist policies, noting, “Each nation has different needs. It cannot throw its market open to everyone.” While he acknowledges the benefits of free trade, Friedman believes a balanced approach is crucial for safeguarding critical industries. He also emphasizes the importance of patience in economic development, remarking, “They expect miracles. And they don’t understand how long it took the United States or China or any of these other countries,” highlighting the unrealistic expectations many nations have in their pursuit of rapid growth.

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Features

The hard challenge of clinching a political settlement in the Middle East

Published

10 hours ago

2026/07/23

Sahan Weerasooriya

Bruised hearts: Displaced Palestinian civilians in the Gaza.(Photo by Mustafa Hassona/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Despite some sections of the Trump administration persisting with the view that the possibility could not be entirely ruled out of there being a diplomatic solution to the current US-Iran hostilities in West Asia, the skeptic could not be blamed for thinking otherwise. The intensity, scale and frequency of the tit-for-tat strikes by the antagonists over the past few days against selected military targets and civilian infrastructure in particular in West Asia make the adoption of this stance excusable.

The continuing hostilities render the mentioning of the MOU signed between the warring parties in mid-June a laughable matter. While it could very well be that the foes are wishing privately for a cessation of hostilities before long, what seems to be uppermost on their minds right now is to negotiate with each other from a position of strength. This strategy compels them to incapacitate each other militarily to the extent possible, lest they have to concede too much to each other during negotiations. Hence the stepped-up hostilities.

However, even on the question of there being a negotiated political settlement in the West Asian theatre in the longer term, the skeptic could come to be seen as scoring over the optimist. Developments on the ground account for this.

At the time of writing Israel’s Netanyahu government is going ahead in fairly care-free fashion with the establishment of more Jewish settlements in the Gaza and the West Bank, and it’s all happening under the apparently complacent gaze of the US. In fact, some quarters estimate that Israel is in control of some 65% of the Gaza Strip. Ethnic cleansing, that is, is being drastically stepped-up.

Accordingly, in terms of the power relations of West Asia, the world is almost back to the status quo of the late forties of the last century when the state of Israel was established and the Palestinians were reduced to a microscopic minority in the land they came to inhabit. Therefore, even the impartial observer would be compelled to ask: ‘Will a negotiated peace be ever possible in the Middle East?’

The humanist in the observer would prefer to answer this question in the affirmative and it is indeed the ideal stance to adopt considering the staggering human and material costs of the conflict. But the way ahead to peace could be expected to be highly hazardous and arduous. Among other odds, it would also prove an uphill endeavour to win minds and hearts.

The US’ Trump administration would need to be counted out in this pursuit. This is on account of the fact that it has been far too wayward in its management of West Asian affairs in particular over the past couple of years. Given its unpredictable character it is a matter for conjecture whether it could be counted on to live up to its commitments.

Moreover, Israel could be expected to ‘go it alone’ in the Middle East regardless of whether US help is coming or otherwise. It has indicated as much in recent times and Israel could be doubted on this score only at the doubter’s peril. Because time and again Israel has demonstrated that it could steadfastly defend its interests even single-handedly in the Middle East. History bears this out.

However, a durable alliance with the US would stand Israel in good stead. On the matter of military and intelligence assistance, for example, the US’s help proved invaluable for Israel in the past and going forward this is bound to be so as well. Moreover, it is unlikely that the Trump administration would give up on Israel, considering that a strong Israel is crucial for the furtherance of the US’ strategic and economic interests in West Asia.

But whether the above factors would have a considerable bearing on the question of working out a durable solution to the West Asian tangle is an entirely different matter. Israel, as in the case of the Palestinian enclaves, is acutely security conscious and would need to satisfy itself fully that it could live in a security environment that would guarantee its complete safety, going forward.

The Middle East is badly in need of another peace effort on the lines of the Oslo Accords of the mid-nineties that brought the key actors together and helped hammer out a solution that addressed some of their notable concerns. To be sure, that process did not prove to be the ideal answer to the tangle, but it yielded some respite to the region and drove home that one-time sworn foes could indeed negotiate with a degree of success. The West Bank authority, although falling short of fulfilling some key Palestinian aspirations, is testimony that a degree of success is possible if the intent is right.

Given the current realities of West Asia, peace-making is bound to be an uphill challenge. The violence faced in recent times by the Palestinian community, in particular, has been nothing less than mind-numbing. Merciless has been the violence visited on them by the Israeli side. In such circumstances, durable peace in the region could smack of an idealist’s dream.

Nevertheless, there needs to be urgently, a meeting of minds over the divides. The US would need to be counted out as an honest broker in bringing the sides together but the rest of the West would do well to step up to the challenge.

In this exercise the onus would be on the world’s democracies to take the initiative and doggedly stay the course. An acceptable combination would be the EU and the UN. Given their credentials, the main sides in West Asia ought to find them the least controversial.

Even if the relevant institutional and political arrangements could be shored up to take a reconciliation process forward, winning hearts and minds for the peace drive would prove a grueling challenge. Over the past few years in particular tens of thousands of hearts and minds on both sides of the divide have been bruised badly in the runaway murderous violence that has come to define the Middle East.

These badly scarred personalities would need to experience healing without much delay. It is therefore a multi-faceted challenge that is at hand. Since wide-ranging expertise would be needed in the healing process, people’s participation in peace-making, ranging over the divides, would need to be made a durable reality. It will be a time for enthroning humanity and ensuring the rejection of all forms of violence and coercion.

Features

Amazing Thailand …right here in Colombo

Published

10 hours ago

2026/07/23

Sahan Weerasooriya

For many Sri Lankans, Thailand is the go-to holiday — beaches, temples, food, and that famous warm hospitality.

In fact, I’ve been to Amazing Thailand 24 times myself, and was honoured with the Friends of Thailand International Media Award by the Tourism Authority of Thailand for promoting Thai tourism.

The good news I have for you today is that you don’t even need a passport to get a taste of Amazing Thailand.

The Royal Thai Embassy, in Colombo, is bringing a vibrant slice of Thailand, to the city of Colombo, with Thai Festival 2026 — a cultural experience like never before.

Whether you are an avid enthusiast of Thai culture, a total novice, or simply just interested in exploring foreign cultures, Thai Festival 2026 is going to be the perfect opportunity for you to get more than just a glimpse into one of the most celebrated cultural heritages in South East Asia. And ENTRANCE IS FREE.

The festival will be held on the 1st and 2nd of August, 2026, at Siam Nivasa, 43, C.W.W. Kannangara Mawatha, Colombo 7, and the East Parking Area, of the Colombo Municipal Council, from 11:00am to 5:00pm.

Both days will be full of live entertainment, and dispersed throughout with Thai cultural displays, including exhilarating traditional dance performances and breathtaking Muay Thai demonstrations.

Exploring art and craft specific to Thailand, tasting irresistible authentic Thai cuisine, and playing arcade games, are just a few more fun-filled events available for visitors at the festival premises.

An array of Thai products will also be available for purchase.

While at the festival, you will find Sri Lankan Alumni from Thai universities sharing their experiences with you and willing to answer any questions you might have, related to studying abroad in Thailand.

You can also register for the Muay Thai workshop that will be happening on the 7th and 8th of August, 2026, in Colombo.

Irresistible authentic Thai cuisine

Visitors can also stand a chance to win traditional Thai souvenirs, get exclusive photo opportunities, and, the big one — to enter the raffle draw, at the end of each day, for the grand prize of an all-inclusive round trip to Thailand.

Be sure to avail yourself of this exceptional opportunity and add a cultural spin to your weekend.

To keep up with the latest updates on Thai Festival 2026, head over to the Thai Festival official social media pages.

The Royal Thai Embassy in Colombo official webpage:

https://colombo.thaiembassy.org

Official social media:

Facebook: @RTEColombo

Instagram: @thaiembassysrilanka

Thai Festival official social media:

Facebook: Thai Festival in Colombo

Instagram: @thaifestival_colombo

TikTok: @thaifestival.incolombo

Features

Thicker, stronger hair …

Published

10 hours ago

2026/07/23

Sahan Weerasooriya

Hair fall, in this heat, can be so frustrating, and noticing a thin patch is even more worrying. The good news is … yes, with a little care and kitchen ingredients, you can nourish your scalp and support healthy regrowth.

Try these four easy home remedies … even our grandmothers trusted:

* Coconut Oil and Curry Leaves Tonic:

Warm 04 tablespoons of coconut oil, with a handful of curry leaves, till the leaves turn black. Cool, strain, and massage into scalp 02-03 times a week. Leave for 01 hour, or overnight.

Why:

Coconut oil deeply nourishes, while curry leaves help strengthen roots and add shine.

* Onion Juice for Spot Treatment:

With cotton, dab the juice of 01 small onion, directly on the thin/bald patches. Leave for 20-30 minutes, and then wash with a mild shampoo. Use twice a week.

Why:

Rich in sulfur, onion juice helps boost blood circulation to the scalp.

* Aloe Vera and Castor Oil Mask:

Mix 02 tablespoons of fresh aloe vera gel and 01 tablespoon castor oil and apply to the scalp, focusing on thinning areas. Leave for 45 minutes, and then rinse with cool water.

Why:

Aloe vera soothes the scalp, while castor oil coats hair to make it look thicker.

* Fenugreek and Curd Strengthening Pack:

You will need 02 tablespoons fenugreek seeds, soaked overnight, and 02 tablespoons plain curd.

Grind to a paste, apply to scalp for 30 minutes, and then wash.

Why:

Fenugreek strengthens strands and reduces breakage.

Extra Tips for Healthy Hair:

Avoid tight hairstyles that pull on the scalp.

Eat iron and protein rich foods: greens, dhal, eggs, fish.

Use lukewarm water, not hot.

Be gentle when brushing and drying.