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The global energy crisis

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by Kumar David

Well no, that’s not true, the energy price and supply crunch is not global; North America and Russia are for the time being riding fine. It’s Europe, especially the UK and Germany, East Asia, China and India that are suffering bellyache. It is a conjunction of worldwide trends plus decisions in particular countries or regions that have triggered the crunch, but there are global trends at work as well. Supply side or supply chain hiccups will be reflected in shortages and high prices but this time there is a coincidence of more factors than the Covid pandemic to be blamed. It is not easy to depict the whole picture in a single essay but let me push some ideas in this column as world leaders gather for the COPE26 summit in Glasgow at the end of the month. Let’s get started by repeating a few facts that readers are familiar with.

Oil at this moment is over $80 a barrel and pointing upwards; the Dutch gas spot-market, the standard in Europe, is ten-times higher now than it was in the middle of 2020. Germany and Northern Europe are faced with severe gas and electricity bottlenecks; petrol shortages in the UK have led to mile long queues and inversely short tempers. There are short, medium and underlying longer term complications. The immediate problem in Northern Europe is that not enough Russian gas is reaching it through the existing pipeline and the EU has still to certify the recently completed Nord Stream-2 pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. A further complication is that European buyers contracted for natural gas on long-term contracts which obligation Russia is dutifully fulfilling, but Europe’s additional needs will have to be bought at spot-prices on spot-markets. There is no obligation for Russia to supply additional amounts at any but prevailing market prices; selling gas is not a charity. This bottle neck will span the winter and how much further no one knows because the winds are metaphorically becalmed and post-covid recovery has no use-by date attached to it.

In the graph I have reproduced from the Institute of Energy Economics, JKM is the Japan-Korea Marker, Dutch TTV is a European spot-market and Henry Hub is a giant gas selling point in the USA. The huge difference between the first two (over $20 per MMBtu) and the last (less than $5 per MMBtu) is liquefaction and transport costs. It is not possible to foresee where future prices will go but it is certain that price volatility will dominate markets. What blithering bad luck just when we are toying with LNG fired electricity! Unfortunately for Sri Lanka at this time when the country is setting off down the unavoidable LNG road, prices are all over the place. Nevertheless gas is the least dirty of the fossil fuel options. It is imperative that the CEB and the CPC train staff for their future buying departments because market complexities are challenging and the LNG road is unescapable. (MM on the graph’s y-axis means million).

The medium-term outlook for energy supply and prices is clouded by the worldwide decarbonisation drive. Germany and the UK for example, decommissioned or mothballed coal-fired plant. They were in no rush to build gas-fired generation as there was a headlong rush for renewables, mainly wind-power. But the wind bloweth as it listeth, or to be more prosaic, wind generated electricity can change by large amounts at short intervals. Large unexpected changes in electricity output in Germany caused power-swings throughout the Northern European grid and destabilised the whole system. The European love affair with wind-power has fizzled but investment in conventional (carbon emitting) power-plant has been long neglected. Germany and the UK are now caught by the short and curlies. France, annoyed with the UK about a fishing dispute, has threatened to punch the UK well below the belt at a place where it hurts and that is slicing off virile electricity supplies.

India allowed its coal stocks to run down and is now a victim of power shortages. The electricity supply sector is influenced by green-lobbies (bless them) and so India dutifully switched on large scale to solar and renewables and went slow on gas-fired plant construction and mothballed coal-fired projects. This is a general remark as I am not in a position to name the actual power stations concerned. China is different; electricity supply is Central or Provincial state owned and subject to direction. Instructions were issued to cut-back coal power and now many provinces are suffering power shortages. Some industries are cutting back activity and the icy cold hand of winter beckons the northern parts of the country.

The long-term challenge is that the world must learn how to interface decarbonisation, the turn to renewables and futuristic alternatives within the big energy picture. Soon after you read these lines world leaders will be scratching their heads about how to achieve zero-carbon targets and hold global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees C of pre-industrialisation levels. Will they manage or will we all be cooked in this earthly pressure cooker? I say they will fail and I am supported by the International Energy Agency which said on October 13 that the world will fall short of its 2050 energy reduction target by 60%! Let me explain why I am a pessimist. If it was only about fuel for electricity generation then technology can do it with some hiccups as we are well on the way; by about 2050 the world will get fossil-fuel fired electricity generation down to acceptable levels.

But the point is fossil fired electricity generation is not the biggest problem; it is industry, transport and all the rest that modern life involves. Eighty percent of global gross energy use at this time is from fossil-fuel. The big carbon polluting industries are steel, cement, plastics and fertiliser. Supply chains today are long, stretch overseas and are opaque; inputs manufactured in country X enter final products of country Z, so it is difficult to pinpoint the sources and distribution of carbon. About 70% of carbon releases are concealed in the supply chain and in most countries electricity generation is not guilty of more than a fifth to a tenth of atmospheric carbon releases.

The more intractable problem in the capitalist world is that big business, all round, will howl in protest if hard emission control targets are enforced by governments. “What will be the effect on productivity, on profit margins and on business models if strict carbon accountability is forced on our activities?” big business will holler. Capitalism and strict enforcement of emission goals is incompatible. China, one of the worst polluters, is able to make headway because party edicts run; but America has no Federal Laws enforcing decarbonisation nor a carbon tax. Europe is stricter thanks to its social democratic traditions. But this makes competition between capitalists of different continents “unfair”. A global carbon tax is going to be hard to get agreement on.

The interruptibility – within-minutes and medium-time probabilistic (stochastic) characteristics of wind and solar power are affecting power system operations to an extent not originally foreseen. This is a complication over and above the unavailability of land and renewable resources for electricity on an adequate scale. Now when the shortage problem has become acute globally the neglect of even moderate investment in coal, oil and gas – fossil fuel fired plant in general – in recent decades is taking its toll. Investors have been reluctant to plough money into what appeared to be a dying industry. The pre-green-era abundance of fossil-powered electricity paradoxically sounded the death knell of coal. Even the current predicament of shortage is not attracting private investment in fossil-fired plant because it takes decades to recoup big investments and who knows which deadly Covid variant is mutating in someone’s genes awaiting a chance to send the global economy tumbling again. The tocsin beckoning the death of king-coal has sounded loud and clear so why invest, they say. Such are the conflicts that beset electricity supply in most parts of the world. There is no solution, only survival strategies.

Coal and oil energy as sources for electricity production are past tense nouns and wind in its present avatar is an unreliable bastard. The cost of solar-panels however is falling like the centre of gravity of a drunken sailor. But solar power’s favours are as fickle as a lady’s affection unless supplemented big time by storage technologies; pumped storage where you pump water uphill to a reservoir for future use, battery storage and hydrogen production. As solar-panel prices nosedive locations with large dessert landmasses are in luck. Next on the horizon is hydrogen which right now is a wearisome teenager – hard to compress or liquefy, it is combustible and flatulent. But like a teenager who grows up it will have its uses, first for heavy trucks and storage of stochastic green energy as hydrogen production, storage and transport will become cheaper than pumped-storage and batteries. Conventional (fission) nuclear is still a no-go option because of waste disposal. The Eldorado of an energy addicted world of course is fusion which has been, coming, coming, coming for so long. But when this frigid companion reaches commercial scale, perhaps later this century, it will be energy-for-free, or nearly so except capital outlays. The even better option is to halve the world’s population within two generations but the scope of that discourse lies beyond the remit of this essay.

In summary the global energy availability and pricing picture is grim in the short-term but less daunting in a ten to fifteen year perspective. The longer term looks good, but don’t forget the aphorisms of John Maynard Keynes who was rather obsessed with death.



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Wishes, Resolutions and Climate Change

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Exchanging greetings and resolving to do something positive in the coming year certainly create an uplifting atmosphere. Unfortunately, their effects wear off within the first couple of weeks, and most of the resolutions are forgotten for good. However, this time around, we must be different, because the nation is coming out of the most devastating natural disaster ever faced, the results of which will impact everyone for many years to come. Let us wish that we as a nation will have the courage and wisdom to resolve to do the right things that will make a difference in our lives now and prepare for the future. The truth is that future is going to be challenging for tropical islands like ours.

We must not have any doubts about global warming phenomenon and its impact on local weather patterns. Over its 4.5-billion-year history, the earth has experienced drastic climate changes, but it has settled into a somewhat moderate condition characterised by periods of glaciation and retreat over the last million years. Note that anatomically modern Homo sapiens have been around only for two to three hundred thousand years, and it is reasoned that this stable climate may have helped their civilisation. There have been five glaciation periods over the last five hundred thousand years, and these roughly hundred-thousand-year cycles are explained by the astronomical phenomenon known as the Milankovitch Cycle (the lows marked with stars in Figure 1). At present, the earth is in an inter glacial period and the next glaciation period will be in about eighty thousand years.

(See Figure 1. Glaciation Cycles)

During these cycles, the global mean temperature has changed by about 7-8 degrees Centigrade. In contrast to this natural variation, earth has been experiencing a rapid temperature increase over the past hundred years. There is ample scientific evidence from multiple sources that this is caused by the increase in carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere, which has seen a 50% increase over the historical levels in just hundred years (Figure 2). Carbon dioxide is one of the greenhouse gases which traps heat from the sun and slows the natural cooling process of the earth. This increase of carbon dioxide is due to human activities: fossil fuel burning, industrial processes, deforestation, and agricultural practices. Ironically, those who suffer from the consequences did not contribute to these changes; those who did contribute are trying their best to convince the world that the temperature changes we see are natural, and nothing should be done. We must have no illusions that global warming is a human-caused phenomenon, and it has serious repercussions.

(See Figure 2. Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Levels)

Why should we care about global warming? Well, there are many reasons, but let us focus on earth’s water cycle. Middle schoolers know that water evaporates from the oceans, rises into the atmosphere where it cools, condenses, and falls back onto earth as rain or snow. When the oceans warm, the evaporation increases, and the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. Water laden atmosphere results in severe and erratic weather. Ironically, water vapour is also a greenhouse gas, and this has a snowballing effect. The increased ocean temperature also disrupts ocean currents that influence the weather on land. The combined result is extreme and severe weather: violent storms and droughts depending on the geographic location. What is happening on the West coast of the USA is an example. The net result will be major departures from what is considered normal weather over millennia.

International organisations have been talking for 30 years about limiting global temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions. But not much has been done and the temperature has risen by 1.2oC already. The challenge is that even if we can stop greenhouse gas emissions completely, right now, we have the problem of removing already existing 2,500 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere, for which there are no practical solutions yet. Scientists worry about the consequences of runaway temperature increase and its effect on human life, which are many. It is not a doomsday prediction of life disappearing from earth, but a warning that life will be quite different from what humans are used to. All small tropical nations like ours are burdened with mitigating the consequences; in other words, get ready for more Ditwahs, do not wait for the twelve-day forecast.

Some opined that not enough warning was given regarding Ditwah; the truth is that the tools available for long-term prediction of the path or severity of a weather event (cyclone, typhoon, hurricane, tornado) are not perfect. There are multitude of rapidly changing factors contributing to the behavior of weather events. Meteorologists feed most up to date data to different computer models and try to identify the prediction with the highest probability. The multiple predictions for the same weather event are represented by what is known as spaghetti plots. Figure 3 shows the forecasted paths of a 2019 Atlantic hurricane five days ahead on the right and the actual path it followed on the left. While the long-term prediction of the path of a cyclone remains less accurate, its strength can vary within hours. There are several Indian ocean cyclones tracking sites online accessible to the public.

Figure 3. Forecasting vs Reality

There is no argument that short-term forecasts of this nature are valuable in saving lives and movable assets, but having long term plans in place to mitigate the effects of natural disasters is much more important than that. If a sizable section of the population must start over their lives from ground zero after every storm, how can a country economically develop?

The degree of our unpreparedness came to light during Ditwah disaster. It is not for lack of awareness; judging by the deluge of newspaper articles, blogs, vlogs, and speeches made, there is no shortage of knowledge and technical expertise to meet the challenge. The government has assured the necessary resources, and there is good reason to trust that the funds will be spent properly and not to line the pockets as happened during previous disasters. However, history tells us that despite the right conditions and good intentions, we could miss the opportunity again. Reasons for such skepticisms emerged during the few meetings the President held with the bureaucrats while visiting effected areas. Also, the COPE committee meetings plainly display the inherent inefficiencies and irregularities of our system and the absence of work ethics among all levels of the bureaucracy.

What it tells us is that we as a nation have an attitude problem. There are ample scholarly analyses by local as well as international researchers on this aspect of Sri Lankan psyche, and they label it as either island or colonial mentality. The first refers to the notion of isolated communities perceiving themselves as exceptional or superior to the rest of the world, and that the world is hell-bent on destroying or acquiring what they have. This attitude is exacerbated by the colonial mentality that promoted the divide and conquer rules and applied it to every societal characteristic imaginable; and plundered natural resources. As a result, now we are divided along ethnic, linguistic, religious, political, class, caste, geography, wealth, and many more real and imagined lines. Sadly, politicians, some religious leaders, and other opportunists keep inflaming these sentiments for their benefit when most of the population is willing to move on.

The first wish, therefore, is to get the strength, courage, and wisdom to think rationally, and discard outdated and outmoded belief systems that hinder our progress as a nation. May we get the courage to stop venerating elite who got there by exploiting the masses and the country’s wealth. More importantly, may we get the wisdom to educate the next generation to be free thinkers, give them the power and freedom to reject fabrications, myths, and beliefs that are not based on objective facts.

This necessitates altering our attitude towards many aspects of life. There is no doubt that free thinking does not come easily, it involves the proverbial ‘exterminating the consecrated bull.’ We are rightfully proud about our resplendent past. It is true that hydraulic engineering, art, and architecture flourished during the Anuradhapura period.

However, for one reason or another, we have lost those skills. Nowadays, all irrigation projects are done with foreign aid and assistance. The numerous replicas of the Avukana statue made with the help of modern technology, for example, cannot hold a candle to the real one. The fabled flying machine of Ravana is a figment of marvelous imagination of a skilled poet. Reality is that today we are a nation struggling with both natural and human-caused disasters, and dependent on the generosity of other nations, especially our gracious neighbor. Past glory is of little help in solving today’s problems.

Next comes national unity. Our society is so fragmented that no matter how beneficial a policy or an idea for the nation could be, some factions will oppose it, not based on facts, but by giving into propaganda created for selfish purposes. The island mentality is so pervasive, we fail to trust and respect fellow citizens, not to mention the government. The result is absence of long-term planning and stability. May we get the insight to separate policy from politics; to put nation first instead of our own little clan, or personal gains.

With increasing population and decreasing livable and arable land area, a national land management system becomes crucial. We must have an intelligent zoning system to prevent uncontrolled development. Should we allow building along waterways, on wetlands, and road easements? Should we not put the burden of risk on the risk takers using an insurance system instead of perpetual public aid programs? We have lost over 95% of the forest cover we had before European occupation. Forests function as water reservoirs that release rainwater gradually while reducing soil erosion and stabilizing land, unlike monocultures covering the hill country, the catchments of many rivers. Should we continue to allow uncontrolled encroachment of forests for tourism, religious, or industrial purposes, not to mention personal enjoyment of the elite? Is our use of land for agricultural purposes in keeping with changing global markets and local labor demands? Is haphazard subsistence farming viable? What would be the impact of sea level rising on waterways in low lying areas?

These are only a few aspects that future generations will have to grapple with in mitigating the consequences of worsening climate conditions. We cannot ignore the fact that weather patterns will be erratic and severe, and that will be the new normal. Survival under such conditions involves rational thinking, objective fact based planning, and systematic execution with long term nation interests in mind. That cannot be achieved with hanging onto outdated and outmoded beliefs, rituals, and traditions. Weather changes are not caused by divine interventions or planetary alignments as claimed by astrologers. Let us resolve to lay the foundation for bringing up the next generation that is capable of rational thinking and be different from their predecessors, in a better way.

by Geewananda Gunawardana

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From Diyabariya to Duberria: Lanka’s Forgotten Footprint in Global Science

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Snakes and their name origins in Sinhala

For centuries, Sri Lanka’s biological knowledge travelled the world — anonymously. Embedded deep within the pages of European natural history books, Sinhala words were copied, distorted and repurposed, eventually fossilising into Latinised scientific names of snakes, bats and crops found thousands of kilometres away.

Africa’s reptiles, Europe’s taxonomic catalogues and global field guides still carry those echoes, largely unnoticed and uncredited.

Now, a Sri Lankan herpetologist is tracing those forgotten linguistic footprints back to their source.

Through painstaking archival research into 17th- and 18th-century zoological texts, herpetologist and taxonomic researcher Sanjaya Bandara has uncovered compelling evidence that several globally recognised scientific names — long assumed to be derived from Greek or Latin — are in fact rooted in Sinhala vernacular terms used by villagers, farmers and hunters in pre-colonial Sri Lanka.

“Scientific names are not just labels. They are stories,” Bandara told The Island. “And in many cases, those stories begin right here in Sri Lanka.”

Sanjaya Bandara

At the heart of Bandara’s work is etymology — the study of word origins — a field that plays a crucial role in zoology and taxonomy.

While classical languages dominate scientific nomenclature, his findings reveal that Sinhala words were quietly embedded in the foundations of modern biological classification as early as the 1700s.

One of the most striking examples is Ahaetulla, the genus name for Asian vine snakes. “The word Ahaetulla is not Greek or Latin at all,” Bandara explained. “It comes directly from the Sinhala vernacular used by locals for the Green Vine Snake.” Remarkably, the term was adopted by Carl Linnaeus himself, the father of modern taxonomy.

Another example lies in the vespertilionid bat genus Kerivoula, described by British zoologist John Edward Gray. Bandara notes that the name is a combination of the Sinhala words kiri (milky) and voula (bat). Even the scientific name of finger millet, Eleusine coracana, carries linguistic traces of the Sinhala word kurakkan, a cereal cultivated in Sri Lanka for centuries.

Yet Bandara’s most intriguing discoveries extend far beyond the island — all the way to Africa and the Mediterranean.

In a research paper recently published in the journal Bionomina, Bandara presented evidence that two well-known snake genera, Duberria and Malpolon, both described in 1826 by Austrian zoologist Leopold Fitzinger, likely originated from Sinhala words.

The name Duberria first appeared in Robert Knox’s 1681 account of Ceylon, where Knox refers to harmless water snakes called “Duberria” by locals. According to Bandara, this was a mispronunciation of Diyabariya, the Sinhala term for water snakes.

“Mispronunciations are common in Knox’s writings,” Bandara said. “English authors of the time struggled with Sinhala phonetics, and distorted versions of local names entered European literature.”

Over time, these distortions became formalised. Today, Duberria refers to African slug-eating snakes — a genus geographically distant, yet linguistically tethered to Sri Lanka.

Bandara’s study also proposes the long-overdue designation of a type species for the genus, reviving a 222-year-old scientific name in the process.

Equally compelling is the case of Malpolon, the genus of Montpellier snakes found across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe. Bandara traced the word back to a 1693 work by English zoologist John Ray, which catalogued snakes from Dutch India — including Sri Lanka.

“The term Malpolon appears alongside Sinhala vernacular names,” Bandara noted. “It is highly likely derived from Mal Polonga, meaning ‘flowery viper’.” Even today, some Sri Lankan communities use Mal Polonga to describe patterned snakes such as the Russell’s Wolf Snake.

Bandara’s research further reveals Sinhala roots in the African Red-lipped Herald Snake (Crotaphopeltis hotamboeia), whose species name likely stems from Hothambaya, a regional Sinhala term for mongooses and palm civets.

“These findings collectively show that Sri Lanka was not just a source of specimens, but a source of knowledge,” Bandara said. “Early European naturalists relied heavily on local names, local guides and local ecological understanding.”

Perhaps the most frequently asked question Bandara encounters concerns the mighty Anaconda. While not a scientific name, the word itself is widely believed to be a corruption of the Sinhala Henakandaya, another snake name recorded in Ray’s listings of Sri Lankan reptiles.

“What is remarkable,” Bandara reflected, “is that these words travelled across continents, entered global usage, and remained there — often stripped of their original meanings.”

For Bandara, restoring those meanings is about more than taxonomy. It is about reclaiming Sri Lanka’s rightful place in the history of science.

“With this study, three more Sinhala words formally join scientific nomenclature,” he said.

“Who would have imagined that a Sinhala word would be used to name a snake in Africa?”

Long before biodiversity hotspots became buzzwords and conservation turned global, Sri Lanka’s language was already speaking through science — quietly, persistently, and across continents.

By Ifham Nizam

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Children first – even after a disaster

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However, the children and their needs may be forgotten after a disaster.

Do not forget that children will also experience fear and distress although they may not have the capacity to express their emotions verbally. It is essential to create child-friendly spaces that allow them to cope through play, draw, and engage in supportive activities that help them process their experiences in a healthy manner.

The Institute for Research & Development in Health & Social Care (IRD), Sri Lanka launched the campaign, titled “Children first,” after the 2004 Tsunami, based on the fundamental principle of not to medicalise the distress but help to normalise it.

The Island picture page

The IRD distributed drawing material and play material to children in makeshift shelters. Some children grabbed drawing material, but some took away play material. Those who choose drawing material, drew in different camps, remarkably similar pictures; “how the tidal wave came”.

The Island” supported the campaign generously, realising the potential impact of it.

The campaign became a popular and effective public health intervention.

“A public health intervention (PHI) is any action, policy, or programme designed to improve health outcomes at the population level. These interventions focus on preventing disease, promoting health, and protecting communities from health threats. Unlike individual healthcare interventions (treating individuals), which target personal health issues, public health interventions address collective health challenges and aim to create healthier environments for all.”

The campaign attracted highest attention of state and politicians.

The IRD continued this intervention throughout the protracted war, and during COVID-19.

The IRD quick to relaunch the “children first” campaign which once again have received proper attention by the public.

While promoting a public health approach to handling the situation, we would also like to note that there will be a significant smaller percentage of children and adolescents will develop mental health disorders or a psychiatric diagnosis.

We would like to share the scientific evidence for that, revealed through; the islandwide school survey carried out by the IRD in 2007.

During the survey, it was found that the prevalence of emotional disorder was 2.7%, conduct disorder 5.8%, hyperactivity disorder was 0.6%, and 8.5% were identified as having other psychiatric disorders. Absenteeism was present in 26.8%. Overall, previous exposure to was significantly associated with absenteeism whereas exposure to conflict was not, although some specific conflict-related exposures were significant risk factors. Mental disorder was strongly associated with absenteeism but did not account for its association with tsunami or conflict exposure.

The authors concluded that exposure to traumatic events may have a detrimental effect on subsequent school attendance. This may give rise to perpetuating socioeconomic inequality and needs further research to inform policy and intervention.

Even though, this small but significant percentage of children with psychiatric disorders will need specialist interventions, psychological treatment more than medication. Some of these children may complain of abdominal pain and headaches or other physical symptoms for which doctors will not be able to find a diagnosable medical cause. They are called “medically unexplained symptoms” or “somatization” or “bodily distress disorder”.

Sri Lanka has only a handful of specialists in child and adolescent psychiatric disorders but have adult psychiatrists who have enough experience in supervising care for such needy children. Compared to tsunami, the numbers have gone higher from around 20 to over 100 psychiatrists.

Most importantly, children absent from schools will need more close attention by the education authorities.

In conclusion, going by the principles of research dissemination sciences, it is extremely important that the public, including teachers and others providing social care, should be aware that the impact of Cyclone Ditwah, which was followed by major floods and landslides, which is a complex emergency impact, will range from normal human emotional behavioural responses to psychiatric illnesses. We should be careful not to medicalise this normal distress.

It’s crucial to recall an important statement made by the World Health Organisation following the Tsunam

Prof. Sumapthipala MBBS, DFM, MD Family Medicine, FSLCFP (SL), FRCPsych, CCST (UK), PhD (Lon)]

Director, Institute for Research and Development in Health and Social Care, Sri Lanka

Emeritus Professor of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Keele University, UK

Emeritus Professor of Global Mental Health, Kings College London

Secretary General, International society for Twin Studies 

Visiting Professor in Psychiatry and Biomedical Research at the Faculty of Medicine, Kotelawala Defence University, Sri Lanka

Associate Editor, British Journal Psychiatry

Co-editor Ceylon Medical Journal.

Prof. Athula Sumathipala

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