Business

Sri Lanka’s Sovereign Foreign Debt: to restructure or not?

Published

4 years ago

2022/01/14

By Dr Dushni Weerakoon

Sovereign debt restructuring can be pre-emptive or post-default. A default is inherently costly as it can result in a sustained loss of access to capital markets. That leaves pre-emptive restructuring when a country deems itself unable to service outstanding debt.

The complex creditor landscape of today though makes governments reluctant to entertain sovereign debt restructuring. The landscape of sovereign borrowing has evolved from a small group made up of multilateral organisations, a few commercial banks, and the ‘Paris Club’ of rich countries to something much more complicated. In recent decades, emerging markets and developing economies have borrowed proportionately more from international bond markets with their dispersed private investors, and tapped new non-Paris Club lenders like China. From the sovereign’s perspective, this makes a potential debt restructuring operation particularly complicated.

The first step in any restructuring is calculating how much a country owes and to whom. This involves sharing detailed information on all categories of sovereign debt denominated in foreign currency, including collateralised liabilities and the debts of state-owned enterprises. The adoption of an IMF programme may be conditioned as a part of a restructuring to underwrite the data, economic plan and the promise of macroeconomic and fiscal supervision.

Lenders will weigh the upfront losses of a debt standstill and restructuring against the total magnitude of

losses in the event of a default. In entering restructuring talks, though, they will also demand to do so on the principle of comparable treatment of creditors in any proposed debt reprofilings and restructurings. Lenders will be mindful that any relief offered does not give preferential treatment to other creditors, especially in the face of new geopolitical power rivalries. This would typically mean that a country in distress asks for debt relief from friendly governments to whom it owes money and then seeks a comparable deal from private lenders.

The Holdout Problem

Over the past decades, there has been progress in governance frameworks to deal with sovereign debt crises, but considerable gaps persist. In the COVID-19 era, the G-20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments apply only to low-income countries (LICs), and even then, do not compel the participation of private creditors. Emerging markets that have undergone debt restructuring most recently (e.g. Argentina and Ecuador) are categorised in academic research as countries with a track record of serial default – i.e. more than two default spells or episodes. Given research evidence that countries that have defaulted on their debt obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future, creditors have an added incentive to enter into negotiations in such cases.

All told, with the creditor landscape transformed, debt restructuring is still very much a matter of ad hoc negotiations between a sovereign and its creditors.

The creditors are aware of their special legal protection that comes down to a question of money due but not paid. At the same time, creditors too have virtually no choice but to negotiate as there will be inadequate assets to satisfy every creditor’s claims even with a successful legal remedy. In the extreme, ‘vulture funds’ have used litigation as an investment strategy to buy the debt at a hefty discount and pursue full payment through the courts. Confronted with this reality, a negotiated resolution should appeal to both creditors and debtor country.

At the centre of such a coordinated effort will be creditor (especially bondholder) committees. The composition of such committees – inclusive of large institutional investors, hedge funds, etc. – is critical to obtain a relatively quick resolution. However, there are no guarantees of fast and efficient mechanisms, and countries still risk fighting creditor lawsuits from those who may hold out.

Such potential holdout creditors may not necessarily take the view that what is good for the many is always good for the few. A disgruntled holdout creditor has the leverage to cause disturbing headlines, especially when countries resume bond market access once again at some point. Holdout creditors can be reined in through exit consents – where a majority of holders can amend terms, or as more commonly used now, employ collective action clauses (CACs) in bond agreements to bind minority holders. In the latter case, a specified supermajority of holders (usually 75%) can bind a minority to the terms of a debt restructuring. But much depends on whether a debtor country’s outstanding stock of international sovereign bonds contains these clauses. Some countries have also adopted anti-vulture fund legislation that limits holdout creditor recovery as a deterrent.

Net Benefit Calculation

High uncertainty during a restructuring, and the risk of prolonged negotiations means debt restructuring is still the last resort, to be done only if you must. A restructuring is a costly exercise with reputational downsides, loss of market access and more expensive debt issuances, weighed down further by concerns about adverse legal implications. For policymakers, a decisive step can be taken after a careful net benefit calculation of whether a country’s economic conditions are likely to deteriorate further without a restructuring, or whether a timely restructure may reduce the total magnitude of upfront losses and return debt to a sustainable level at the lowest cost to both the country and its creditors.

Link to Talking Economics blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2022/01/12/sri-lankas-sovereign-foreign-debt-to-restructure-or-not/

Dr Dushni Weerakoon is the Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) and Head of its Macroeconomic Policy research. She joined IPS in 1994 after obtaining her PhD, and has written and published widely on macroeconomic policy, regional trade integration and international economics. She has extensive experience working in policy development committees and official delegations of the Government of Sri Lanka. Dushni Weerakoon holds a BSc in Economics with First Class Honours from the Queen’s University of Belfast, U.K., and an MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Manchester, U.K. (Talk with Dr Dushni – dushni@ips.lk)

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Business

PEOTV secures media rights for FIFA World Cup

Published

3 hours ago

2026/06/6

Priyan

SLT-MOBITEL PEOTV, Sri Lanka’s pioneering Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) service provider and leading digital entertainment platform, announced a landmark partnership with Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), securing the exclusive media broadcasting rights for the FIFA World Cup 2026™ in Sri Lanka.

The strategic partnership marks one of the most significant sports media acquisitions in the country’s broadcasting landscape, granting SLT-MOBITEL PEOTV exclusive rights to deliver every match of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ to audiences across Sri Lanka. Through PEOTV, PEO MOBILE, and digital platforms, football fans nationwide will have unparalleled access to the world’s most prestigious sporting event, ensuring they experience every moment of the tournament live, from the opening match to the final championship.

The acquisition of FIFA World Cup 2026™ rights represents another significant milestone in SLT-MOBITEL PEOTV’s continued investment in premium sports broadcasting. Over the years, PEOTV has built a strong reputation for delivering major international sporting events, offering customers reliable, high-quality coverage and enhanced viewing experiences through advanced IPTV technology. Viewers will enjoy the tournament in true High Definition (HD), delivering exceptional picture quality and an immersive viewing experience. Whether watching from home through PEOTV, on the move via PEO MOBILE, or through digital access points, fans can follow every defining goal and unforgettable celebration throughout the competition.

The FIFA World Cup 2026™ is set to make history as the largest edition of the tournament ever staged, with 104 matches featuring 48 nations competing across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Expected to captivate billions of viewers worldwide, the tournament represents the pinnacle of international football and stands among the most celebrated sporting events on the global calendar.

Business

Ceylon Chamber expresses concern over new US labour-related tariffs and calls for urgent engagement

Published

8 hours ago

2026/06/6

Thilina Walpola

The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce is concerned by the announcement of new labour-related tariffs by the United States on several countries, including a proposed 12.5% tariff on exports from Sri Lanka. This development comes at a time when Sri Lanka was continuing discussions with the US following the suspension of the previously announced reciprocal tariffs and was seeking to secure a more favourable trading arrangement.

The imposition of an additional tariff on Sri Lankan exports risks undermining the competitiveness of key export sectors compared to other countries, which are at a lower rate of 10%. At a time when Sri Lanka is working to accelerate export growth, attract investment, and create employment opportunities, any increase in trade barriers presents a significant challenge. At present, key goods exports such as Apparel and Tea are down by 7% and 6% respectively in the first four months of 2026.

Sri Lanka has built a strong reputation as a responsible sourcing destination, with many industries adhering to high labour, environmental, and governance standards. The country has also made substantial progress in strengthening regulatory frameworks and promoting ethical business practices.

The Ceylon Chamber therefore requests the relevant authorities to engage proactively and at the highest levels with the United States to better understand the basis for the tariff and to present Sri Lanka’s case. Every effort should be made to secure a reduction in the proposed tariff and, ultimately, to seek its removal altogether. It is important that Sri Lanka seeks to return to the lower tariff band while continuing discussions towards achieving a more competitive and predictable trading environment.

Given the importance of the US market to Sri Lankan exports, timely engagement and clear communication on the way forward will be critical in providing confidence to exporters and investors. The Ceylon Chamber stands ready to support these efforts and work collaboratively with all stakeholders to safeguard Sri Lanka’s export competitiveness and long-term economic interests.

Business

Rupee weakens sharply against dollar as energy cost concerns resurface

Published

8 hours ago

2026/06/6

Thilina Walpola

The Sri Lankan rupee came under renewed pressure recently, depreciating significantly against the US dollar across several commercial banks, with the greenback’s selling rate reaching as high as Rs. 340 in some instances, triggering concerns among businesses, industrialists and consumers over the potential impact on inflation, electricity tariffs and the broader economy.

The latest depreciation marks one of the sharpest daily movements in recent months and comes at a time when Sri Lanka is striving to consolidate economic gains achieved through painful fiscal and monetary reforms.

Banking and financial sector sources said increased demand for foreign exchange, coupled with market uncertainty and rising import requirements, had contributed to the weakening of the local currency.

The development is expected to increase the cost of imports across a range of sectors, including fuel, pharmaceuticals, food items, industrial raw materials and machinery.

Economists note that while exporters may benefit from higher rupee returns on foreign currency earnings, the wider economy is likely to face increased cost pressures.

“The exchange rate affects virtually every sector of the economy. Any sustained depreciation inevitably filters through to consumer prices and business operating costs, a senior financial analyst said.

Particular concern is being expressed within the energy sector, where electricity generation costs remain closely linked to movements in the exchange rate.

Sri Lanka continues to rely heavily on imported fuel and energy-related inputs, all of which are purchased in foreign currency. A weaker rupee therefore translates directly into higher generation costs for the power sector.

Energy economists warn that if the depreciation trend continues, the financial burden on the electricity sector could increase substantially, potentially paving the way for future tariff revisions.

The issue has gained added significance amid ongoing discussions on Sri Lanka’s long-term energy transition and commitments to reduce dependence on coal-fired power generation.

Several energy experts argue that the country is entering a delicate phase where policymakers must carefully balance environmental objectives with affordability and energy security.

According to industry observers, the gradual move away from coal-based electricity generation—supported by international climate financing frameworks and policy reforms associated with multilateral lending programmes—could increase the country’s exposure to imported fuel costs unless sufficient low-cost alternatives are developed in time.

They point out that coal has historically provided relatively inexpensive baseload power to the national grid. While renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are essential components of Sri Lanka’s future energy strategy, experts note that large-scale storage systems and backup generation capacity remain costly and technologically demanding.

As a result, any future reduction in coal-based generation without corresponding investments in affordable alternatives could place additional pressure on electricity prices.

The latest weakening of the rupee further compounds these concerns.

“Every depreciation of the rupee increases the local currency cost of imported fuel, spare parts, equipment and energy-sector obligations. Ultimately, those costs have to be absorbed either by the utility provider, the Treasury or consumers, an energy sector specialist observed.

Industrialists have meanwhile warned that rising electricity costs could affect competitiveness, particularly among export-oriented manufacturers that are already operating under challenging global market conditions.

By Ifham Nizam