Features
Sri Lanka’s exports sliding down a dangerous path
By Gomi Senadhira
Some newspaper headlines, published during the last week of December on Sri Lanka’s achievements on the exports front, provided a welcome relief to many of their readers. “Merchandise exports increase by 4.4% to US$ 968.8 Mn in Nov,” said one. “Agriculture boosts exports in November” said another. We all are aware that the immediate and one of the main reasons for the present crisis was not having sufficient foreign currency reserves that we needed to pay for our imports. One of the main means of earning dollars was exports, earnings from which were always sufficient to pay for our most essential imports. So increased exports was a piece of excellent news at the end of a terrible year as it opens an exit route from the present crisis.
Unfortunately, when one reads beyond headlines the facts provide a different story. Though Sri Lanka’s merchandise exports increased by 4.4 percent to US$ 968.8 million in November 2023, compared to October 2023, the exports decreased by 2.67 percent when compared to the value recorded in November 2022. The fact is that Sri Lanka merchandise exports consistently declined every month during the last year. The information released by the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) confirms that during the first 11 months of 2023, the cumulative merchandise exports decreased by 9.64 percent (to US$ 10,878.6 million) compared to the corresponding period of 2022. The chart published by the EDB (which is given here) clearly illustrates how the exports have been declining since October 2022. (See Graph)
The decline in export is generally attributed by the EDB to “…to decreased demand for export products, particularly in sectors such as Apparel and Textiles, Rubber and Rubber-based products, and Coconut and Coconut-based products.” If this is correct, then it is possible to assume that we could reverse this slump once the demand picks up. However, if it is also due to the weakening of our competitiveness vis-à-vis our competitors, in our main markets, then the continued decline in exports would be extremely difficult to reverse once the markets start to pick up.
So, what exactly is the situation in the global marketplace?
In October the World Trade Organization (WTO) halved its growth forecast for global goods trade in 2023 from its April estimate of 1.7 percent to o.8% percent. The reasons attributed were persistent inflation, higher interest rates, a strained Chinese property market and the war in Ukraine. The impact of the Israeli–Palestinian (Gaza) conflict was not factored in for that equation. All these mean the slow growth of world trade is a fact that may impact us for next year and beyond. But how have all these impacted our South Asian neighbours?
Merchandise Exports from Bangladesh grew by around 15 percent in the first three months of Bangladesh’s current financial year
(July 23- June 24). But a 13.64 percent year-on-year decrease in October and the 6 percent fall in November dragged down this growth to 1.3 percent by December. The decline during October and November was mainly attributed to a substantial drop in shipments of ready-made garments which had resulted from worker unrest over pay hike demands in the apparel sector. According to media reports, many factories were closed amid violent protests by the workers. However, even under those circumstances, during the January-November period, Bangladesh’s garment export earnings registered a 4.35 percent increase and reached US $ 42.83 billion.
Merchandise exports from Pakistan increased in a sustained manner for the third consecutive month in November
and in the first five months of the current fiscal year (July 23-June 24), cumulative exports had reached US$12.17 billion compared to US$11.94 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. That is a 1.93 percent increase.
India however experienced a negative growth
as India’s merchandise exports contracted by 6.51 percent year-on-year to $278.8 billion, in the first eight months of the current (Indian) financial year (April 2023- March 2024). Even under these conditions India is expected to register economic growth of 7.3 percent by the end of this fiscal year and is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world for the next three years.
All these countries are expected to expand their exports, as they have done over the years, once headwinds in the market subside. It appears that during the last year, our South Asian neighbours have managed to deal with the problems in the global marketplace a touch better than us.
Furthermore, unlike our neighbours, Sri Lanka has failed to expand its exports in recent years. During the period 2013 to 2021, Sri Lanka’s exports increased from US$10 billion to US$ 13 billion. Then, in 2022 exports dropped to US$12.7 billion. As shown in Table I, during this period exports from all SAARC countries, other than the Maldives, expanded substantially. Exports from India increased from US$ 336 billion in 2013 to US$ 452 billion in 2022. Exports from Bangladesh increased from US$ 24.5 billion in 2013 to US$ 67.49 billion in 2022. Exports from Pakistan increased from US$ 25 billion to US$ 31 billion. Compared to the growth of exports from those countries, Sri Lanka’s export growth had remained almost stationary. In 2022, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan managed to increase their exports substantially on year-on –year basis while Sri Lanka’s exports dropped significantly. Table I
stand Sri Lanka’s export performance more clearly it is necessary to evaluate Sri Lanka’s performance in our main markets as against our major competitors. During 2022 the USA, the UK, India, Germany, and Italy were Sri Lanka’s five most important markets. Now, let’s look at how Sri Lanka has done in our two main markets, namely; the United States and the United Kingdom. Table II
United States
Though Sri Lanka’s exports to the United States increased during the last 10 years, from US$ 2,5 billion in 2013 to US$ 3.6 billion to 2022, that growth appears insignificant when compared to the growth achieved by some of our neighbours. During the last 10 years, India increased her exports to the United States from $43 billion to $90.9 billion, Bangladesh from $5.5 billion to $11.8 billion, Thailand from $27 billion to $63 billion and Malaysia from $27.9 billion to $56.8 billion. These countries that managed to double their exports to the United States, the world’s largest market. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar achieved even better market growth and increased their exports by many folds. Table III
Sri Lanka in the United Kingdom
The United Kingdom’s imports from Sri Lanka have remained almost stagnant during the last 10 years. In 2013, the UK’s total imports from Sri Lanka were recorded at US$1,108 million and this had declined to US$ 1,032 by 2022. However, as illustrated in Table IV, the UK’s imports from most Asian countries had increased significantly during the period. Table IV
Falling exports in an unrelenting manner for two years on the back of insignificant growth over a decade with the prospect of its further deceleration in the months ahead illustrate how uncompetitive Sri Lanka had become in our main markets, not only against East Asian countries but also against South Asian countries.
That explains how even Bangladesh managed to lend us dollars when we had hit rock bottom.
How did Sri Lanka the first country in South Asia to adopt the export-led growth model, become so uncompetitive in the global marketplace during the last 15 years?
Why did the government/s fail to take any meaningful measures to reverse this decline during that period? While trying to find answers to these questions, Sri Lanka needs urgently to focus on its present weaknesses and take immediate remedial steps to make Sri Lanka more competitive in the global market. We all know that the best exit route from the present crises is via increased exports. Through increased exports, we can earn dollars (to pay our debts) and create more jobs. But to do that Sri Lankan firms and the domestic economy need to be competitive vis-à-vis our competitors from the region and elsewhere. For that, we need a national strategy to boost exports. A strategy with immediate, short, medium, and long-term goals.
Today at this stage of an election year, we cannot expect the government to prepare a national strategy that would be accepted by other parties. So, those who are in the export sector, that is; exporters, manufacturers, trade chambers, workers, trade unions, and other stakeholders, should get together with the experts in the field and develop a widely acceptable national strategy to increase the Sri Lanka’s competitiveness and develop exports.
This should be done urgently because in this election year, there is an exceptional opportunity to develop national consensus on export policy and incorporate the main points of that strategy into the election manifestos of all main parties.
(The tables in the study were prepared by the author from International Trade Centre (ITC) data. ITC calculates its data from UN COMTRADE statistics and national trade statistics.)
(The writer, a former Director General of Commerce, can be contacted via senadhiragomi@gmail.com.)
Features
Rethinking post-disaster urban planning: Lessons from Peradeniya
A recent discussion by former Environment Minister, Eng. Patali Champika Ranawaka on the Derana 360 programme has reignited an important national conversation on how Sri Lanka plans, builds and rebuilds in the face of recurring disasters.
His observations, delivered with characteristic clarity and logic, went beyond the immediate causes of recent calamities and focused sharply on long-term solutions—particularly the urgent need for smarter land use and vertical housing development.
Ranawaka’s proposal to introduce multistoried housing schemes in the Gannoruwa area, as a way of reducing pressure on environmentally sensitive and disaster-prone zones, resonated strongly with urban planners and environmentalists alike.
It also echoed ideas that have been quietly discussed within academic and conservation circles for years but rarely translated into policy.
One such voice is that of Professor Siril Wijesundara, Research Professor at the National Institute of Fundamental Studies (NIFS) and former Director General of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Peradeniya, who believes that disasters are often “less acts of nature and more outcomes of poor planning.”
“What we repeatedly see in Sri Lanka is not merely natural disasters, but planning failures,” Professor Wijesundara told The Island.
“Floods, landslides and environmental degradation are intensified because we continue to build horizontally, encroaching on wetlands, forest margins and river reservations, instead of thinking vertically and strategically.”
The former Director General notes that the University of Peradeniya itself offers a compelling case study of both the problem and the solution. The main campus, already densely built and ecologically sensitive, continues to absorb new faculties, hostels and administrative buildings, placing immense pressure on green spaces and drainage systems.
“The Peradeniya campus was designed with landscape harmony in mind,” he said. “But over time, ad-hoc construction has compromised that vision. If development continues in the same manner, the campus will lose not only its aesthetic value but also its ecological resilience.”
Professor Wijesundara supports the idea of reorganising the Rajawatte area—located away from the congested core of the university—as a future development zone. Rather than expanding inward and fragmenting remaining open spaces, he argues that Rajawatte can be planned as a well-designed extension, integrating academic, residential and service infrastructure in a controlled manner.
Crucially, he stresses that such reorganisation must go hand in hand with social responsibility, particularly towards minor staff currently living in the Rajawatte area.
“These workers are the backbone of the university. Any development plan must ensure their dignity and wellbeing,” he said. “Providing them with modern, safe and affordable multistoried housing—especially near the railway line close to the old USO premises—would be both humane and practical.”
According to Professor Wijesundara, housing complexes built near existing transport corridors would reduce daily commuting stress, minimise traffic within the campus, and free up valuable land for planned academic use.
More importantly, vertical housing would significantly reduce the university’s physical footprint.
Drawing parallels with Ranawaka’s Gannoruwa proposal, he emphasised that vertical development is no longer optional for Sri Lanka.
“We are a small island with a growing population and shrinking safe land,” he warned.
“If we continue to spread out instead of building up, disasters will become more frequent and more deadly. Vertical housing, when done properly, is environmentally sound, economically efficient and socially just.”
The veteran botanist also highlighted the often-ignored link between disaster vulnerability and the destruction of green buffers.
“Every time we clear a lowland, a wetland or a forest patch for construction, we remove nature’s shock absorbers,” he said.
“The Royal Botanic Gardens has survived floods for over a century precisely because surrounding landscapes once absorbed excess water. Urban planning must learn from such ecological wisdom.”
Professor Wijesundara believes that universities, as centres of knowledge, should lead by example.
“If an institution like Peradeniya cannot demonstrate sustainable planning, how can we expect cities to do so?” he asked. “This is an opportunity to show that development and conservation are not enemies, but partners.”
As climate-induced disasters intensify across the country, voices like his—and proposals such as those articulated by Patali Champika Ranawaka—underscore a simple but urgent truth: Sri Lanka’s future safety depends not only on disaster response, but on how and where we build today.
The challenge now lies with policymakers and planners to move beyond television studio discussions and academic warnings, and translate these ideas into concrete, people-centred action.
By Ifham Nizam ✍️
Features
Superstition – Major barrier to learning and social advancement
At the initial stage of my six-year involvement in uplifting society through skill-based initiatives, particularly by promoting handicraft work and teaching students to think creatively and independently, my efforts were partially jeopardized by deep-rooted superstition and resistance to rational learning.
Superstitions exerted a deeply adverse impact by encouraging unquestioned belief, fear, and blind conformity instead of reasoning and evidence-based understanding. In society, superstition often sustains harmful practices, social discrimination, exploitation by self-styled godmen, and resistance to scientific or social reforms, thereby weakening rational decision-making and slowing progress. When such beliefs penetrate the educational environment, students gradually lose the habit of asking “why” and “how,” accepting explanations based on fate, omens, or divine intervention rather than observation and logic.
Initially, learners became hesitant to challenge me despite my wrong interpretation of any law, less capable of evaluating information critically, and more vulnerable to misinformation and pseudoscience. As a result, genuine efforts towards social upliftment were obstructed, and the transformative power of education, which could empower individuals economically and intellectually, was weakened by fear-driven beliefs that stood in direct opposition to progress and rational thought. In many communities, illnesses are still attributed to evil spirits or curses rather than treated as medical conditions. I have witnessed educated people postponing important decisions, marriages, journeys, even hospital admissions, because an astrologer predicted an “inauspicious” time, showing how fear governs rational minds.
While teaching students science and mathematics, I have clearly observed how superstition acts as a hidden barrier to learning, critical thinking, and intellectual confidence. Many students come to the classroom already conditioned to believe that success or failure depends on luck, planetary positions, or divine favour rather than effort, practice, and understanding, which directly contradicts the scientific spirit. I have seen students hesitate to perform experiments or solve numerical problems on certain “inauspicious” days.
In mathematics, some students label themselves as “weak by birth”, which creates fear and anxiety even before attempting a problem, turning a subject of logic into a source of emotional stress. In science classes, explanations based on natural laws sometimes clash with supernatural beliefs, and students struggle to accept evidence because it challenges what they were taught at home or in society. This conflict confuses young minds and prevents them from fully trusting experimentation, data, and proof.
Worse still, superstition nurtures dependency; students wait for miracles instead of practising problem-solving, revision, and conceptual clarity. Over time, this mindset damages curiosity, reduces confidence, and limits innovation, making science and mathematics appear difficult, frightening, or irrelevant. Many science teachers themselves do not sufficiently emphasise the need to question or ignore such irrational beliefs and often remain limited to textbook facts and exam-oriented learning, leaving little space to challenge superstition directly. When teachers avoid discussing superstition, they unintentionally reinforce the idea that scientific reasoning and superstitious beliefs can coexist.
To overcome superstition and effectively impose critical thinking among students, I have inculcated the process to create a classroom culture where questioning was encouraged and fear of being “wrong” was removed. Students were taught how to think, not what to think, by consistently using the scientific method—observation, hypothesis, experimentation, evidence, and conclusion—in both science and mathematics lessons. I have deliberately challenged superstitious beliefs through simple demonstrations and hands-on experiments that allow students to see cause-and-effect relationships for themselves, helping them replace belief with proof.
Many so-called “tantrik shows” that appear supernatural can be clearly explained and exposed through basic scientific principles, making them powerful tools to fight superstition among students. For example, acts where a tantrik places a hand or tongue briefly in fire without injury rely on short contact time, moisture on the skin, or low heat transfer from alcohol-based flames rather than divine power.
“Miracles” like ash or oil repeatedly appearing from hands or idols involve concealment or simple physical and chemical tricks. When these tricks are demonstrated openly in classrooms or science programmes and followed by clear scientific explanations, students quickly realise how easily perception can be deceived and why evidence, experimentation, and critical questioning are far more reliable than blind belief.
Linking concepts to daily life, such as explaining probability to counter ideas of luck, or biology to explain illness instead of supernatural causes, makes rational explanations relatable and convincing.
Another unique example that I faced in my life is presented here. About 10 years ago, when I entered my new house but did not organise traditional rituals that many consider essential for peace and prosperity as my relatives believed that without them prosperity would be blocked. Later on, I could not utilise the entire space of my newly purchased house for earning money, largely because I chose not to perform certain rituals.
While this decision may have limited my financial gains to some extent, I do not consider it a failure in the true sense. I feel deeply satisfied that my son and daughter have received proper education and are now well settled in their employment, which, to me, is a far greater achievement than any ritual-driven expectation of wealth. My belief has always been that a house should not merely be a source of income or superstition-bound anxiety, but a space with social purpose.
Instead of rituals, I strongly feel that the unused portion of my house should be devoted to running tutorials for poor and underprivileged students, where knowledge, critical thinking, and self-reliance can be nurtured. This conviction gives me inner peace and reinforces my faith that education and service to society are more meaningful measures of success than material profit alone.
Though I have succeeded to some extent, this success has not been complete due to the persistent influence of superstition.
by Dr Debapriya Mukherjee
Former Senior Scientist
Central Pollution Control Board, India ✍️
Features
Race hate and the need to re-visit the ‘Clash of Civilizations’
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has done very well to speak-up against and outlaw race hate in the immediate aftermath of the recent cold-blooded gunning down of several civilians on Australia’s Bondi Beach. The perpetrators of the violence are believed to be ardent practitioners of religious and race hate and it is commendable that the Australian authorities have lost no time in clearly and unambiguously stating their opposition to the dastardly crimes in question.
The Australian Prime Minister is on record as stating in this connection: ‘ New laws will target those who spread hate, division and radicalization. The Home Affairs Minister will also be given new powers to cancel or refuse visas for those who spread hate and a new taskforce will be set up to ensure the education system prevents, tackles and properly responds to antisemitism.’
It is this promptness and single-mindedness to defeat race hate and other forms of identity-based animosities that are expected of democratic governments in particular world wide. For example, is Sri Lanka’s NPP government willing to follow the Australian example? To put the record straight, no past governments of Sri Lanka initiated concrete measures to stamp out the evil of race hate as well but the present Sri Lankan government which has pledged to end ethnic animosities needs to think and act vastly differently. Democratic and progressive opinion in Sri Lanka is waiting expectantly for the NPP government’ s positive response; ideally based on the Australian precedent to end race hate.
Meanwhile, it is apt to remember that inasmuch as those forces of terrorism that target white communities world wide need to be put down their counterpart forces among extremist whites need to be defeated as well. There could be no double standards on this divisive question of quashing race and religious hate, among democratic governments.
The question is invariably bound up with the matter of expeditiously and swiftly advancing democratic development in divided societies. To the extent to which a body politic is genuinely democratized, to the same degree would identity based animosities be effectively managed and even resolved once and for all. To the extent to which a society is deprived of democratic governance, correctly understood, to the same extent would it experience unmanageable identity-bred violence.
This has been Sri Lanka’s situation and generally it could be stated that it is to the degree to which Sri Lankan citizens are genuinely constitutionally empowered that the issue of race hate in their midst would prove manageable. Accordingly, democratic development is the pressing need.
While the dramatic blood-letting on Bondi Beach ought to have driven home to observers and commentators of world politics that the international community is yet to make any concrete progress in the direction of laying the basis for an end to identity-based extremism, the event should also impress on all concerned quarters that continued failure to address the matters at hand could prove fatal. The fact of the matter is that identity-based extremism is very much alive and well and that it could strike devastatingly at a time and place of its choosing.
It is yet premature for the commentator to agree with US political scientist Samuel P. Huntingdon that a ‘Clash of Civilizations’ is upon the world but events such as the Bondi Beach terror and the continuing abduction of scores of school girls by IS-related outfits, for instance, in Northern Africa are concrete evidence of the continuing pervasive presence of identity-based extremism in the global South.
As a matter of great interest it needs mentioning that the crumbling of the Cold War in the West in the early nineties of the last century and the explosive emergence of identity-based violence world wide around that time essentially impelled Huntingdon to propound the hypothesis that the world was seeing the emergence of a ‘Clash of Civilizations’. Basically, the latter phrase implied that the Cold War was replaced by a West versus militant religious fundamentalism division or polarity world wide. Instead of the USSR and its satellites, the West, led by the US, had to now do battle with religion and race-based militant extremism, particularly ‘Islamic fundamentalist violence’ .
Things, of course, came to a head in this regard when the 9/11 calamity centred in New York occurred. The event seemed to be startling proof that the world was indeed faced with a ‘Clash of Civilizations’ that was not easily resolvable. It was a case of ‘Islamic militant fundamentalism’ facing the great bulwark, so to speak, of ‘ Western Civilization’ epitomized by the US and leaving it almost helpless.
However, it was too early to write off the US’ capability to respond, although it did not do so by the best means. Instead, it replied with military interventions, for example, in Iraq and Afghanistan, which moves have only earned for the religious fundamentalists more and more recruits.
Yet, it is too early to speak in terms of a ‘Clash of Civilizations’. Such a phenomenon could be spoken of if only the entirety of the Islamic world took up arms against the West. Clearly, this is not so because the majority of the adherents of Islam are peaceably inclined and want to coexist harmoniously with the rest of the world.
However, it is not too late for the US to stop religious fundamentalism in its tracks. It, for instance, could implement concrete measures to end the blood-letting in the Middle East. Of the first importance is to end the suffering of the Palestinians by keeping a tight leash on the Israeli Right and by making good its boast of rebuilding the Gaza swiftly.
Besides, the US needs to make it a priority aim to foster democratic development worldwide in collaboration with the rest of the West. Military expenditure and the arms race should be considered of secondary importance and the process of distributing development assistance in the South brought to the forefront of its global development agenda, if there is one.
If the fire-breathing religious demagogue’s influence is to be blunted worldwide, then, it is development, understood to mean equitable growth, that needs to be fostered and consolidated by the democratic world. In other words, the priority ought to be the empowerment of individuals and communities. Nothing short of the latter measures would help in ushering a more peaceful world.
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