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Sri Lanka’s economy on Y-o-Y growth expansion of 5.3 percent – CBSL Governor

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Dr.Nandalal Weerasinghe

By Hiran H.Senewiratne

The Sri Lankan economy expanded for the third consecutive quarter in the first quarter 2024, with a year-on- year real growth of 5.3 percent, as per the estimates, Central Bank Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

‘The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to sustain, buoyed by the transmission of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates, enhanced supply conditions, the gradual rebound in external demand conditions, revival of tourism and the dissipation of uncertainties surrounding debt restructuring, Dr Weerasinghe told the press briefing following CBSL’s monthly monetary policy review meeting. The event was held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.

Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and with due regard to the domestic and global uncertainties, the CBSL decided to reduce the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 25 basis points to 8.25 per cent and 9.25 per cent, respectively.

‘CBSL underscores the need to signal its desire to continue easing monetary conditions to sustain revival of economic activity, in the absence of significant inflationary pressures.

‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to monitor inflation developments and those of other macroeconomic variables and take policy actions as necessary in the period ahead.

‘In line with the eased monetary policy stance of the Central Bank, market interest rates continued to adjust downwards. However, the adjustments, particularly of lending interest rates other than on prime lending, remained weaker than the adjustments to deposit interest rates.

‘Further, following a contraction recorded in April 2024, credit extended to the private sector by Licensed Commercial Banks (LCBs) expanded in May and June 2024. A sustained rebound in credit growth requires market lending interest rates to decline further in line with the prevailing accommodative monetary policy stance.

‘While the external current account is likely to have recorded a surplus in the first half of the year, the cumulative merchandise trade deficit widened during this period compared to the same period in 2023. Earnings from tourism and workers’ remittances continued to be promising.

‘Gross Official Reserves (GOR) stood at US dollars 5.6 billion (including the swap with the People’s Bank of China) as of end June 2024, compared to US dollars 4.4 billion at end 2023.

‘The Sri Lanka rupee witnessed intermittent volatility against the US dollar in recent months. Overall, the Sri Lanka rupee appreciated by over 6.5 per cent against the US dollar thus far during 2024.

‘The Central Bank has cut the rate at which it is lending “printed money” to banks by 25 basis points to 9.25 percent and the rate at which excess money is taken to 8.25 percent, in a July monetary policy decision.

‘The Board arrived at this decision following a careful assessment of the current and expected macroeconomic developments and possible risks and uncertainties on the domestic and global fronts with a view to maintaining inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its full capacity.

‘In arriving at this decision, the Board considered the need to signal the continuation of the eased monetary policy stance, thereby inducing a further reduction in market lending rates to support economic activity, amidst a benign inflation outlook.

‘The Board noted that, based on the available information, inflation is likely to remain below the inflation target of 5 per cent by a sizable margin for the next several months before aligning with the targeted level over the medium term.

‘Since September 2022 in particular, Sri Lanka’s Central Bank has laid a strong foundation for people and businesses to engage in economic activity by keeping inflation around 2-3 percent, and exchange rate stable by largely avoiding printing money to enforce policy rates incompatible with the balance of payments.

‘Sri Lanka has to repay some sovereign debt in 2024 if a bond exchange proceeds as planned and the Central Bank itself has to settle loans to India and the International Monetary Fund requiring deflationary policy to be followed.

‘Analysts have warned that countries under IMF programs which use mathematics to decide policy rates (data driven monetary policy) ignoring laws of nature, under so-called flexible inflation targeting, tend to trigger confidence shocks, external crises, followed by stabilization programs and social unrest at home.

‘Social unrest broke out in both Kenya and Bangladesh during IMF programs, following depreciating currencies. Kenya had to hike rates steeply to end confidence shocks to the currency. Bangladesh is now following a so-called ‘crawling peg’.

‘Analysts say that a Central Bank that has reserve-related-liabilities to settle (or collect forex reserves under an IMF program) cannot cut rates based on a historical inflation statistic – especially as private credit recovers.

‘In June, the Central Bank injected 7-day money to the banking system up to Rs. 50 billion as low as 8.93 percent despite the overnight rate being at 9.50 percent, losing the ability to collect reserves in the month.

‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 1.7 per cent in June 2024. Such considerably below-target headline inflation was underpinned by the downward revisions to the electricity tariff and fuel and LP gas prices in addition to relatively weak demand conditions.

‘Meanwhile, core inflation, which reflects underlying demand in the economy, was recorded at 4.4 per cent (CCPI- based, year-on-year) in June 2024 compared to 3.5 per cent in May 2024, although a sustained acceleration is not anticipated.

‘Realized quarterly average headline inflation during the Q2 2024 was below the inflation target by more than the margin of 2.0 percentage points stipulated in the Monetary Policy Framework Agreement (MPFA). The latest projections suggest that headline inflation is likely to be notably below the target in the forthcoming months due to the combined impact of downward adjustments to electricity tariffs and domestic fuel prices and the favourable statistical base.’



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Trade and investment facilitation upgrade seen as needed for SL

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South Korean Ambassador Miyon Lee (centre) addresses the forum. On her left is Pathfinder Foundation Chairman Ambassador (Retd) Bernard Goonetilleke.

Sri Lanka should mainly focus on upgrading its trade and investment facilitation system while identifying the paramount importance of the issue, South Korean Ambassador to Sri Lanka Miyon Lee said.

The bureaucratic matters—from Customs clearance to tariff lines, licensing, and registration—should be streamlined, she said at a round table forum recently held at the Colombo Club of the Taj Samudra, Colombo. The forum was organized and conducted by the Pathfinder Foundation Sri Lanka and was presided over by its Chairman, Ambassador (Retd) Bernard Goonetilleke.

Ambassador Lee said that the Sri Lankan government and companies must focus on tourism sector development and also find businesses opportunities with Korea.

She also said that if Sri Lanka wants to attract Korean investment into Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka should highly develop its digital sector.

‘On top of that, If Sri Lankan is to sign a FTA or trade agreements, she should focus on niche markets to supply to Korean companies, she explained.

Ambassador Lee added: ‘Korea is highly digital and AI enabled and Sri Lanka needs to concentrate on that as well.

‘Further, it is going to be very important if you will be able to implement all the obligations that are laid out under a WTO agreement.

‘A single window is part of the overall trade architecture that Sri Lanka has to follow.

‘ I think that also follows with the FTA (Free Trade Agreement) negotiations. From Korea’s experience, when we had the financial crisis in 1997, we only pursued WTO negotiations. FTA negotiations came after the financial crisis.

‘The Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) is important in this regard.

‘The APTA arrangement includes China, India, Korea, Nepal and Mongolia and 50 percent of Sri Lankan exports to South Korea benefit from the APTA.

‘But other than that, there is not much trade between the two countries. That’s why I think it is going to be very important for Sri Lanka to pursue the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) arrangement.

‘Unfortunately, there is not much appetite for upgrading the APTA because we already have separate FTAs with India and China.

‘ We have huge investments in India and in ASEAN countries. I think it would be very important that Sri Lanka uses that kind of opportunity to see if there is any initiative for Sri Lankan companies to provide supplies to Korean companies working in other countries.’

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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SL in damage-control mode in wake of financial security crisis

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Deputy Finance Minister Dr. Anil Jayantha Fernando

USD 2.5 million Treasury cyber heist has escalated into a full-blown financial security crisis, with the government scrambling to contain international fallout amid growing fears that multiple foreign debt repayment channels may have been compromised.

In the strongest indication yet of the gravity of the breach, Deputy Finance Minister Dr. Anil Jayantha Fernando told Parliament that investigators had uncovered suspicious irregularities linked to other external payment transactions, including one involving India, suggesting that the cyber intrusion may have extended far beyond the original fraudulent transfer.

The revelation has sent shockwaves through financial and political circles at a time when Sri Lanka is struggling to restore credibility after its historic sovereign default and painful debt restructuring process.

The controversial transfer involved funds earmarked for a debt repayment to Australia Export Finance. However, the money was allegedly diverted into a fraudulent account after what authorities now believe was a sophisticated cyber infiltration targeting Treasury communication and payment authentication systems within the External Resources Department (ERD).

With international confidence hanging in the balance, the Government has moved swiftly to reassure creditors that the incident would not be treated as a sovereign debt default.

Fernando informed Parliament that international debt restructuring advisors had assessed the situation and concluded that the theft constituted a criminal financial breach rather than a deliberate failure by Sri Lanka to honour debt obligations.

Behind the scenes, however, the crisis has triggered an unprecedented multi-agency investigation involving the Criminal Investigation Department (CID), Sri Lanka Computer Emergency Readiness Team (SLCERT), Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and foreign law enforcement authorities, including Australian agencies.

Investigators are now carrying out forensic examinations of official email systems, payment authorisation trails, digital devices and Treasury transaction records amid mounting concerns that critical State financial infrastructure may have been exposed to external manipulation.

The scandal has also intensified political tensions, with opposition parties accusing the Government of attempting to downplay the seriousness of the breach while demanding an immediate parliamentary debate and an independent inquiry into Treasury security failures.

Pressure mounted further following the sudden death of an interdicted Finance Ministry official reportedly connected to the ongoing investigation.

Although authorities have not officially linked the death to the fraud probe, the incident has fuelled widespread speculation and heightened public suspicion surrounding the case.

The latest disclosures have raised troubling questions about the vulnerability of Sri Lanka’s public financial systems, particularly as billions of dollars in foreign debt repayments, aid flows and restructuring transactions continue to pass through Government channels under intense international scrutiny.

Financial analysts warn that while creditors may refrain from categorising the incident as a formal default, the cyber heist could still damage Sri Lanka’s credibility unless authorities demonstrate swift accountability, institutional transparency and robust corrective measures.

The Treasury breach is now being viewed not merely as an isolated fraud, but as a major national financial security threat with potentially far-reaching implications for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and global standing.

By Ifham Nizam

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JKCG Auto partners with BOC and SLIC to support EV adoption

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John Keells CG Auto (JKCG Auto), the authorised distributor of BYD and DENZA in Sri Lanka, has launched a campaign in partnership with Bank of Ceylon (BOC) and Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Ltd. (SLIC) to accelerate New Energy Vehicles (NEV) adoption among government sector employees.

The initiative, which will run from 4 May to 31 July 2026, is designed to improve accessibility and affordability of NEVs for public servants through a structured set of financing, insurance and ownership support mechanisms.

Open to employees across the government sector, the programme reflects a coordinated effort between industry and national institutions to enable a gradual and practical transition towards cleaner transport options.

As part of the collaboration, JKCG Auto will extend a set of ownership support measures across its BYD and DENZA portfolio, including introductory price considerations, access to home charging infrastructure, and aftersales service support. These are complemented by preferential leasing arrangements facilitated by the Bank of Ceylon, alongside tailored insurance solutions and customer support services from Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation.

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