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Sri Lanka being fleeced through debt restructuring, says Economic Analyst
There isn’t a significant difference between the debt restructuring proposals made by private bondholders and the government of Sri Lanka, Economic Analyst Dhanusha Gihan Pathirana told The Island.
On 16 April 2024, the Sri Lankan government announced that the country’s debt restructuring process with private bondholders had hit a roadblock and that despite “constructive discussions”, the two sides did not come to an agreement on “restructuring terms.” The Ministry said that the Steering Committee comprises 10 of the largest bondholders and that the Ad Hoc Group controls “approximately 50 percent of the aggregate outstanding amount of ISBs.” These bondholders represent about 12 billion U.S dollars of the country’s total debt.
“When one looks at the announcement, one would feel that there is a significant difference in the proposals by private bondholders and the government of Sri Lanka. Verite Research has found that there isn’t a significant difference between the proposals made by private bondholders and the government of Sri Lanka,” he said.
The average interest rates for commercial loans are about 5 to 6 percent. The Ad Hoc Group of Bondholders, which consists of some of the country’s biggest private holders of debt, in its proposal has called the South Asian nation to issue a “Macro-Linked Bond” (MLB) as a part of new securities that will be offered to those who hold existing bonds.
“The Ad Hoc Group has suggested Sri Lanka pays an interest rate of 9.75 percent for the MLBs if Sri Lanka grows, on average by 5.3 percent, in the coming five years. The government has agreed to go up to 9 percent. You can see the difference here is minute,” he said.
He said that if Sri Lanka has to pay private bondholders over 9 percent interest when the average growth rate is around 5.3 percent from 2024 to 2028, the interest rate is almost double that of growth rate.
“One of the economic principles is that growth rate and interest rates must be roughly equal. If the profit rate is significantly higher than the growth rate, there will be significant inequality. Thus, the proposals of the bondholders and the government is a violation of basic economic principles,” he said.
Sri Lanka is trying to restructure about 25 billion dollars of its debt, although the total foreign debt is about 50 billion dollars. Sri Lanka continues to pay about 11 billion dollars of debt from multilateral organizations.
“But we are paying them. This is one of the points China raises. What the Chinese ask is why aren’t the multilateral agencies taking a haircut for the loans they have given,” he said.
The bond holders have agreed to give a 28 percent haircut to the debt they hold. However, in 2001 Argentina imposed a roughly 75 percent haircut on its creditors while Greece received a 64 percent haircut in 2012. Sri Lanka is trying to restructure about 25 billion dollars of its debt, although the total foreign debt is about 50 billion dollars. Sri Lanka continues to pay about 11 billion dollars of debt from multilateral organizations.
“Look at what has happened to Greece and Argentina even after such a large haircut. The debt to GDP ratio of Greece was about 160 percent in 2012. Even with a haircut which was over 50 percent of its GDP, Greece again has a debt to GDP ratio of about 160 percent,” he said.
On the other hand, if the GDP of the country picks up and goes above 98.9 billion dollars in 2028, Sri Lanka will virtually get no haircut from private bond holders.
“Imagine if we continue to grow at 5.3 percent, the haircut for private creditor debt will drop to about six to seven percent. The IMF says our GDP will be at about 80 billion by 2028. The Ad Hoc Group says, if the GDP is over 96 billion, they want Sri Lanka to pay an interest rate of 9.75 percent. This is simple,” he said.
Pathirana said the Sri Lankan government, too, has asked for a very small haircut, with a proposal that is identical with the one presented by the debt holders.
“The government wants to show us that it’s bargaining. Unfortunately for us, this is all very performative. What I want people to understand is, if Greece and Argentina are still in trouble despite massive haircuts, what is the fate of Sri Lanka that is asking for a very small haircut?” he asked.
When countries restructure, the concept of net present value is used, he said. The country will probably get a five-year period where we won’t have to repay debt from private creditors. However, once Sri Lanka starts to pay back loans it will have to pay 1.3 billion dollars as interest for the loans, which is subjected to another four percent interest.
“This is what we call ‘poli pita poli gahanawa’ (interest on top of interest). They are fleecing us,” he said.
News
Namal Rajapaksa Buddhist gambit fails, bail denied
MONETABRIEF – Namal Rajapaksa, son of Sri Lanka’s former leader Mahinda Rajapaksa, was denied bail by the Colombo chief magistrate despite pleading that he needed to attend important Buddhist rituals and travel to India.
The 40-year-old opposition MP’s lawyer, Shavindra Fernando, told the court that Namal had been invited to take part in a pinnacle-capping ceremony at the Pothgul Vihara temple on September 26.
“If my client fails to attend this event, it should be regarded as a disrespect shown to the chief incumbent of the temple,” Fernando said.
He added that Namal had also received an invitation to visit India from 27 September to 1 October and therefore sought bail.
However, he was remanded until September 29 in connection with allegations that he received kickbacks of $800,000 from the $2.3 billion Airbus aircraft purchase deal his father – Mahinda Rajapaksa – approved as president in 2013.
Deputy Solicitor General Janaka Bandara invoked the Buddha’s teachings in response to Namal’s lawyer, Fernando, saying that a judicial matter was far more important than attending a religious ceremony.
“According to what is being said here, the accused himself should have considered this while conducting dealings with Nimal Perera,” Bandara said, referring to the businessman who allegedly routed the bribe money to Namal.
Bandara quoted at length from a recent Supreme Court decision that expanded on the Buddha’s teachings, noting that when a ruler is righteous, the people follow; but when the ruler is dishonest, the citizenry follows that example too.
The 40-year-old MP was arrested on 4 September under the new anti-graft legislation parliament adopted unanimously in 2023.
Namal is primarily accused of accepting $800,000 out of a 1.4 euro million bribe that the then SriLankan Airlines chief executive, Kapila Chandrasena, is alleged to have received from Airbus after finalising a $2.3 billion purchase of aircraft in 2013.
Magistrate Asanga S. Bodaragama told the previous court hearing that he did not have the power to grant Namal bail because the Director-General of the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) had issued a certificate under section 149 of the Act.
The provision stipulates that a magistrate may not grant bail when the CIABOC DG presents a certificate confirming that an offence under the Act has been committed.
The magistrate noted that he could grant bail only in “exceptional circumstances”, but there was no acceptable argument from the defence for him to do so.
A Buddhist temple festival and an invitation from India could not be considered good enough reasons to grant bail.
The businessman who acted as a conduit for the bribe – Nimal Perera – had turned state witness, providing details of how the money was given to Namal through two bank transfers in 2014 and 2015, the court was told.
Under the provisions of the August 2023 Act, Namal Rajapaksa could be held in custody until the conclusion of the trial, even though the magistrate remanded him until September 18, the maximum he could be incarcerated at a time.
News
JR’s 17-year revolution transformed Lanka, says Ranil
Former President and UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka’s first Executive President, J. R. Jayewardene, launched a 17-year revolution that transformed the country’s economy, strengthened democracy and improved living standards.
Addressing a scholarly discussion organised by the D. S. Senanayake Political Chair at the National Library on Thursday to mark Jayewardene’s 120th birth anniversary, Wickremesinghe recalled how his predecessor’s policies expanded education, decentralised property ownership and improved access to housing and electricity.
He said school enrolment increased from 2.5 million to 4.1 million during Jayewardene’s tenure, while household electricity coverage rose from 10 per cent to 95 per cent.
Housing conditions also improved, with the proportion of homes with permanent roofs and cement walls increasing from 40 per cent to 80 per cent, Wickremesinghe said.
“Isn’t this a revolution?” he asked, stressing that the reforms had improved the quality of life of ordinary people.
Wickremesinghe also highlighted Jayewardene’s constitutional reforms, particularly Article 3 of the 1978 Constitution, which vested sovereignty, including fundamental rights and the franchise, in the people.
He said the Constitution provided for the direct election of the Executive President by the people and guaranteed judicial protection of fundamental rights through Article 126.
Paying tribute to former leaders Ranasinghe Premadasa, Gamini Dissanayake and Lalith Athulathmudali, Wickremesinghe said their contributions to housing, the Mahaweli Development Programme and the Mahapola scholarship scheme formed part of the broader transformation initiated under Jayewardene.
He said activities to mark the UNP’s 80th anniversary were now under way and invited SJB members to join in continuing Jayewardene’s legacy.
News
Vehicle prices drop by up to Rs. 1 mn, says importers’ body
Vehicle prices in the local market have declined considerably, with prices of some small vehicles falling by at least Rs. 1 million, Vehicle Importers Association of Lanka (VIAL) Chairman Indika Sampath Merenchige said.
Speaking to the media, Merenchige said the current market situation provided an opportunity for those planning to purchase vehicles to reserve them, as prices could decline further.
He said many traders were currently selling vehicles at a loss, while the downward trend in prices was expected to continue depending on market conditions.
“People who are planning to buy vehicles should consider reserving them at this stage,” he said.
However, Merenchige said vehicle prices could increase once the market stabilised.
He said prices of several popular models, including the Toyota Yaris, Toyota Raize, Honda Vezel, Suzuki Wagon R, Daihatsu Mira and Suzuki vans, had fallen by between Rs. 400,000 and Rs. 1 million.
Rejecting recent claims by the Ceylon Motor Traders’ Association (CMTA), Merenchige said any alleged loss of Government revenue was attributable to the importation of brand-new vehicles.
The CMTA had claimed that the Government could lose between Rs. 100 billion and Rs. 120 billion in revenue in 2026 due to a tax loophole allegedly being exploited by used-vehicle importers. It had also claimed that the Government had lost around Rs. 40 billion in 2025 and a further Rs. 54 billion between January and July this year.
Merenchige explained the impact of brand-new vehicle imports on Government revenue, referring to provisions contained in a 2016 Gazette notification. He urged the authorities not to be misled by what he described as inaccurate claims.
He said the shortage of vehicles caused by the five-year restriction on vehicle imports had now largely been addressed, although more vehicles were still needed to meet the remaining market demand.
However, he claimed that vehicle imports had subsequently exceeded actual market requirements, contributing to the decline in prices.
Merenchige also attributed part of the recent price reduction to the surcharge imposed by the Government, saying it had contributed to the downward movement in vehicle prices.
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