News
South Asia’s geoeconomic vulnerability, trade challenges highlighted in latest WB report
The World Bank’s latest South Asia Development Update raises important questions about the region’s vulnerability to geopolitical risks and its ability to adapt to the shifting global economic landscape. As the global economy fragments along geopolitical lines, South Asian countries face complex challenges as they attempt to navigate these divisions while also positioning themselves to benefit from the reshaping of global value chains.
The report notes that many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), including those in South Asia, are grappling with the economic fallout of geopolitical fragmentation. As countries increasingly realign along political and economic lines, the ability of South Asia to remain resilient to external shocks, including trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions, has become a key concern.
According to the World Bank, South Asian countries’ geopolitical stances, as reflected by their voting patterns in the United Nations, generally align more closely with China than with the United States or Europe—the region’s primary export destinations and largest foreign direct investment (FDI) sources. This alignment places South Asia in a unique position as global power dynamics shift, particularly in light of growing tensions between major geopolitical players.
However, the report also emphasizes that South Asia’s relative insulation from external geopolitical risks is partly due to the region’s lack of openness to global trade and investment. South Asian countries are among the most closed economies in the EMDE group, ranking in the bottom quartile for global trade and FDI openness. While this insularity provides some protection from external shocks, it also limits the region’s capacity to leverage geopolitical diversity and capitalize on the transformation of global supply chains.
While South Asia’s economic ties are becoming more geopolitically diversified, this shift has not been fully translated into economic benefits due to the region’s restrictive trade policies. Countries like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan have expanded their export markets and FDI sources, increasing their geopolitical diversity since 2016. Despite this, the World Bank points out that these countries’ economic openness remains constrained, preventing them from fully realizing the potential advantages of their diversified international relationships.
The South Asia Development Update suggests that South Asian countries could significantly boost their economic performance if they reduced trade barriers, eased FDI restrictions, and invested in infrastructure and logistics. These steps would not only enhance trade connections but also help mitigate vulnerabilities to external shocks, whether geopolitical or economic.
To fully capitalize on their diverse geopolitical ties, the World Bank advocates for a series of policy reforms. These include lowering import tariffs, easing restrictions on foreign investment, improving infrastructure, and deepening financial markets. The report further suggests that South Asia should actively engage in a wide range of trade agreements to maintain a diverse set of trading partners and creditors, which could act as a buffer against potential geopolitical risks.
The potential gains from these reforms are substantial. According to the World Bank’s cross-country analysis, if South Asian countries were to adopt the best practices seen in high-performing EMDEs—such as improving logistics performance and reducing tariffs—there is potential for the region’s export connectedness to match that of Malaysia and Indonesia, two countries that are often cited as models of trade openness and economic integration.
The World Bank’s report underscores that while South Asia faces significant geopolitical risks, the region’s current economic policies are limiting its ability to take advantage of the evolving global trade environment. By fostering greater openness to international trade and investment, South Asian countries could better position themselves to thrive amidst the diversifying global value chains and mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical fragmentation.
For policymakers in the region, the key takeaway is clear: embracing economic openness and strengthening trade and investment ties with a broader set of global partners could unlock considerable growth potential for South Asia.
News
Theft of USD 2.5 mn from Treasury: CoPF accused of complicity in NPP cover-up
Harsha rejects what he called frivolous accusations
Chairman of Committee on Public Finance (CoPF) Dr. Harsha de Silva dismissed Free Lawyers’ claim that his Committee had helped delay a proper investigation into the theft of USD 2.5 mn (nearly Rs 1 bn) from the Treasury.
The Colombo District SJB MP said that he wouldn’t comment on frivolous accusations against his Committee. “We conduct ourselves in keeping with the highest standards of professionalism and responsibility.”
Dr. de Silva said so when The Island raised the Free Lawyers’ allegation that the Treasury and the Central Bank were using the CoPF as a tool to prolong investigations into the unprecedented theft of funds. Free Lawyers targeted the CoPF in a statement issued by Maithri Gunaratne, PC, and civil society activist Rajith Keerthi Tennakoon.
The other members of the CoPF are Harshana Rajakaruna (SJB), Ravi Karunanayake (NDF), Nimal Palihena (NPP), Wijesiri Basnayake (NPP), Thilina Samarakoon (NPP), Lakmali Hemachandra (NPP), Chathuranga Abeysinghe (NPP), Kaushalya Ariyaratne (NPP), Akram Ilyas (NPP), Shanakiyan Rajaputhiran Rasamanikkyam (ITAK), Champika Hettiarachchi (NPP), Sunil Rajapaksha (NPP),
M. K. M. Aslam (NPP), Ajith Agalakada (NPP), Rauff Hakeem (SLMC), Chitral Fernando (SJB) and Nishantha Jayaweera (NPP).
Tennakoon said the theft of funds happened over eight months ago and the Parliament owed the country a clear explanation regarding the disappearance of USD 2.5 mn. The CoPF, instead of expediting the process, has conveniently granted time for those responsible for the loss to cover up their tracks. “Free Lawyers pursue the issue at hand vigorously as we were the first to reveal the loss of USD 2.5 mn. Those who knew it remained silent until our disclosure,” he said, alleging that Speaker Dr. Jagath Wickremaratne was yet to respond to their letter regarding the USD 2.5 theft.
Responding to queries, Tennakoon said that political parties represented in the CoPF should be held responsible for the developing situation. “The Committee on Public Accounts Committee (CoPA) headed by SJB MP Kabir Hashim too, should explain its failure to deal with the USD 2.5 mn theft. Both CoPF and CoPA led by two SJB MPs should act now. Dr. de Silva and Hashim are answerable to the public, particularly because they represent the main Opposition.”
The CoPA consists of Kabir Hashim, Maj. Gen. Aruna Jayasekera (NPP), Sugath Thilakaratne (NPP), Anton Jayakody (NPP), Chandana Sooriyaarachchi (NPP), Ruwanthilaka Jayakody (NPP), Nalin Hewage (NPP), Oshani Umanga (NPP), Manjula Suraweera (NPP), Sagarika Athauda (NPP), Janaka Senarathna (NPP), K.Illankumaran (NPP), Dinidu Saman Henanayake (NPP), Susantha Kumara Navaratna (NPP), Lal Premanath (NPP), Aravinda Senarath (NPP), Thushari Jayasinghe (NPP), T. K. Jayasundera, Ajantha Gammeddage (NPP), Sundaralingam Pradeep (NPP), Kavinda Jayawardena (SJB), J.C. Alawathuwala (SJB),Hector Appuhamy (SJB), Kaveenthiran Kodeeswaran (ITAK), Chamara Sampath Dassanayake (NDF), Rohitha Abeygunawardena (NDF), M.L.A.M. Hisbullah (SLMC), M.A.M. Thahir (ACMC), Chanaka Madugoda (SLPP) and Sunil Ratnasiri (NPP).
Tennakoon said that both CoPF and CoPA were dominated by the NPP though the SJBers headed them. However, as heads of the two parliamentary committees, Dr. de Silva and Hashim, should be held responsible for lapses on the part of the committees or any deliberate omissions, Tennakoon said, questioning the rationale behind giving the Treasury and the CBSL six weeks to submit their findings to the CoPF.
Free Lawyers alleged that USD 2.5 had been released in spite of JP Morgan Chase and the Federal Reserve in the United States warning Sri Lanka about the suspicious nature of those foreign transactions via SWIFT messages. Tennakoon emphasized investigators should closely inquire into the decision taken to release funds regardless of such high-profile warnings.
Tennakoon said that the integrity of two key parliamentary committees is at stake. The civil society activist said that the country was in a highly critical phase of debt restructuring following a severe economic crisis. Tennakoon pointed out in terms of a condition of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme, the government’s debt management functions, previously carried out by the CBSL, were recently transferred to a new institution established under the General Treasury—the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).
by Shamindra Ferdinando
News
Viral diseases on the rise
The number of patients hospitalised due to viral illnesses, including dengue fever, had increased significantly, health officials said yesterday, adding that there had been a rise in daily dengue-related admissions.
Acting Director of the National Dengue Control Unit Dr. Kapila Kannangara said Sri Lanka had recorded 41,144 dengue cases as of Saturday (13).
He said more than half of the reported cases—around 51 percent—were from the Western Province.
According to Dr. Kannangara, the number of dengue patients admitted to hospital daily had reached 750, but it had declined to around 630. However, he cautioned that infection levels remained “very high,” despite the slight drop in hospital admissions.
The dengue death toll has risen to 24, prompting several hospitals to issue red alerts amid continued pressure on wards treating incoming patients.
Health officials warned that the situation could worsen if case numbers continued to rise. Dr. Kannangara noted that the growing burden on healthcare facilities could eventually exceed system capacity.
The public has been urged to take preventive measures to eliminate mosquito breeding sites and to seek prompt medical attention if dengue symptoms develop.
by Chaminda Silva
News
Ranil warns of another economic crisis, calls for Opposition unity
Former President and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has warned that Sri Lanka is heading towards a severe economic crisis, alleging that the current administration is steering the country towards “total collapse.”
Addressing a meeting of the UNP Working Committee at the party headquarters on Flower Road on Thursday, Wickremesinghe claimed that the government was facing mounting difficulties on multiple fronts, with the economy continuing to deteriorate.
He also accused the administration of pursuing policies that, he said, marginalised war heroes and Buddhist monks.
Wickremesinghe expressed concern over what he described as an erosion of fundamental and legal rights, citing the arrest and alleged ill-treatment of former State Intelligence Service Chief Suresh Sallay as an example. He said the rising cost of living had emerged as one of the main concerns of the public.
Commenting on the political situation, the former President said the Opposition had not been able to forge unity among the anti-government forces and called for greater coordination among Opposition parties and groups. He advocated a phased mobilisation strategy, beginning at village and electorate level, instead of attempting to address all issues simultaneously.
Wickremesinghe also announced a series of political campaigns and rallies aimed at strengthening the Opposition movement. The programme is scheduled to commence in Kandy this weekend, with subsequent events planned in Kurunegala and Kalutara.
He said the UNP was engaged in discussions with several political parties and organisations, including those led by Minister Jeevan Thondaman, with a view to forming a broader political alliance.Wickremesinghe urged party members to expedite discussions and arrive at a collective decision on the way forward to address the country’s challenges.
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