Features
Solving the crisis: Step 1
BY DR. DAYAN JAYATILLEKA
The situation is deadlocked: The People’s Movement correctly demands that GR GO HOME; GR will not go home; the Movement will not go home either.
Since the President will not resign, the Parliament can cut the ground from under him while he still sits in his Presidential chair.
The Parliament must become the engine of the transition, drawing its social power from the democratic Civic Movement and becoming the instrument of the collective political will of society.
This is how President GR who will not transition out, can be transitioned down; downsized, miniaturised:
Abolish or strip the 20th Amendment of excessive powers.
Tweak the 19th Amendment to avoid the debilitating dysfunctionalities of the past and substitute it for the 20th amendment.
This can be done with a two-thirds majority.
Once the 20th Amendment is abolished or downsised and the 19th Amendment is re-set and rebooted, it should be possible to:
Install an all-party or multi-party interim/provisional administration.
Such an administration can negotiate with the IMF to stabilise the economy and take the pressure off the people, while safeguarding the rights and living standards of the people.
It can facilitate early elections at Presidential, Parliamentary and Provincial levels so the country can re-start with a clean slate.
The methodology should not be to strive for a result which any one party is happy with. There should be no unnecessary wrangling. The methodology should be one that gets to the goal.
The goal should be to obtain the two-thirds majority in as few days as possible (set a tight deadline; work continuously), and implement this solution before the regime sends in the tanks and there is blood running freely in the streets outside.
Once achieved, the wholly legitimate objection of the Opposition to serving under an autocratic Gotabaya Rajapaksa would be no longer be relevant and they can play the role people expect them to.
This will come closest to complying with the demands the people of Sri Lanka, and Sri Lankans around the world in the Diaspora, speaking with one voice, effectively exercising their sovereignty as enshrined in the Constitution.
A Political Transition
The only meaningful discussion today is the discussion on a political transition.
It is now a Mexican standoff in the Indian Ocean. We are in a seemingly intractable situation. The finest political thinker of late modernity, Antonio Gramsci, described such situations such as the current one by the term “catastrophic equilibrium…an equilibrium of forces tending towards catastrophe.”
We learn as schoolkids that an irresistible force meeting an immovable object, results in explosion.
The irresistible force is the “whole of society” civic movement, or simply, The Movement, which has gone to the root of the problem, and demands the removal of the autocrat. Though some argue that the ‘real’ problem is economic, those who are suffering most from the economic calamity understand that the country needs a fresh start; a reset for a re-boot.
Contrary to the neoliberal local pundits, The Hindu Editorial of April 6th refers to the Movement in Sri Lanka as a “political revolution”. The Movement has a simple, clear, strong slogan, GOTA GO HOME!
In the present case, the immovable object is President Gotabaya Rajapaksa who refuses to resign in a catastrophic context in which any decent, self-respecting leader in any other country would have done so.
Instead, he is in a bunker mode, digging in, while the vast majority of the entirety of the populace is against him. He has only one source of political support, the bulk of the SLPP MPs. That reckoning does not include their vote base which seems to have evaporated. The SLPP cannot even muster a single mass demonstration anywhere in the country in support of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s continued incumbency. At best they can muster a cluster of supporters to defend their residences.
The last card in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s deck is the military (together with the STF). I venture to suggest that it is also his ex-military brothers-in-arms, and a few members of the currently serving brass, who are reinforcing his decision to stay.
Taking in the present state of manifest, active discontent focused precisely at the President, discontent that extends to almost every Sri Lankan community on the planet including Estonia, is it at all possible for any rational mind to imagine a scenario in which President Gotabaya Rajapaksa can maintain the status quo, remain in office for the rest of his term? I certainly cannot.
Judging by the Chief Government Whip Johnston Fernando’s discourse, Camp GR seems to think that the status quo can hold simply by saying NO, standing its ground and forcefully pushing back. The dangerous official discourse is already suggesting without supporting evidence that the Movement is driven by a dangerously subversive agenda of the JVP, which is, of course, the same lie that Minister Ananda Tissa de Alwis uttered in 1983, accusing the JVP of Black July and proscribing it, making inevitable the horrendous Southern Civil War of the late 1980s.
A Military Solution?
Voltaire said “if we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities”. As the contemporary colloquialism goes, if you are a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
For the military mindset of Gotabaya Rajapaksa and those closest to him, those he relies on, behind the Civic Movement is a violent revolutionary attempt by the JVP and the FSP, i.e., a security threat. By ‘securitising’ a social, political and economic problem, the militarist GR bloc will inevitably arrive at a hyper-securitised, militaristic solution. There may be a military crackdown and an ensuing induction of the military into rulership.
My readers may recall my alarm when in 2020 with the onset of Covid-19 and the scheduled parliamentary election, the hardliners of Team GR openly denounced elections, called for the Parliament to be shut down, the postponement of elections for five years and worst of all, rule by the President with the Armed Forces. For the militarist Far-Right, that was Plan A, not Plan B. In the context of the challenge from the unarmed Civic Revolution, that Plan A which probably was shelved as Plan B, may now be dusted-off for implementation.
If activated, it may cause some temporary disruption, but will generate a far worse problem. Militarists may think that provoking the Civic Movement into armed resistance will make it easier to destroy, but the Sri Lankan situation today is quite specific. The economy is collapsing and the only way for it to even begin to stop its deadfall is to put out a good news story of the President’s resignation and the departure of the Rajapaksas. Since that won’t happen, any repression of the vast protest Movement will only cause the economy to hit rock bottom because repression will trigger a General Strike and an uprising.
When that resistance is bloodily suppressed, the economy will be wrecked, the ruler will have an angry populace of all social classes, races and religions, to rule over. Already, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer has any “soft power”, that which Prof Joseph Nye described as the power of a narrative to persuade and attract. He only retains “hard power”. If he deploys that hard power in the irreversible absence of soft power, he will lose every last shred of legitimacy, have to make an economy work, run a country, secure compliance from a bitter citizenry and survive a firestorm of global denunciation leading to sanctions.
Cumulatively it is a recipe for a violent revolution, waged mainly by youth from the working people and the older working people themselves, supported by an awakened educated youth and parents from the privileged classes. This time a guerrilla war will be sustainable in the countryside and the cities, eventually leading to an armed insurrection of the whole nation, and the bloody overthrow of the regime and the entire political, social and economic order. Think the overthrow of the Somoza oligarchy and the defeat of the National Guard (the military) by the Sandinistas of Nicaragua in 1979. I would normally applaud but I have seen far too much bloodshed and destruction in my 65 years.
What of Abolition?
The goal of ‘Gota Go Home’ cannot be achieved soon enough to resolve the present crisis, by calling for abolishing the Executive Presidency as the Leader of the Opposition suggested, because that would not secure the support of the numerically all-important 40 dissidents including the SLFP, and would almost certainly require a Referendum (notwithstanding Jayampathy Wickremaratne’s opinion).
The ‘abolition’ solution poses a more serious risk. Any student of democratic transitions knows that the armed forces must be brought on board or at least neutralised or else the hawks succeed in enlisting them to abort a peaceful democratic transition. If the Sri Lankan armed forces feel that the executive presidency is about to abolished while Provincial Councils remain standing in the Constitution (as they should), thereby enfeebling the strong center– a strong state— and encouraging centrifugalism, it will be more likely to intervene against the democratic Social Movement.
The quickest and best solution is to do what’s immediately possible within the existing Parliament and Constitution to establish political stability by neutralising 20A, rationalising 19A and establishing an interim/provisional administration in order to begin to achieve economic stability. (I must add that my personal recommendation for Finance Minister –athrough the National List—would be the head of the think-tank Verite, Dr Nishan de Mel, who warned against the last debt repayment without restructuring, alerting that there will be no money left over to pay for essentials.) After that, the process of exercising the people’s sovereignty and making their sovereign choices through Presidential, Parliamentary and Provincial elections, can begin.
Features
Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber
“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “
According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.
Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations
But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.
In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.
As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .
Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette
Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.
As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?
Challenges ahead
“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.
With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.
So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.
(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)
by Gomi Senadhira ✍️
Features
Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale
After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.
I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.
This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.
Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.
The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.
But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.
Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.
Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.
Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.
Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.
When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.
Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.
Features
The challenge of being positive about SAARC
It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.
Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.
However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?
There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.
The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.
Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.
Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.
The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.
On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.
In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.
Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.
Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.
The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.
These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.
Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.
There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.
However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.
-
Features7 days agoPrison riots and politics: NPP’s biggest challenge and Sri Lanka’s biggest opportunity
-
Features4 days agoDirty Money
-
Sports7 days agoThe banker who rescued Sri Lankan cricket
-
Editorial7 days agoMuch ado about crime: Fish or cut bait
-
Features7 days agoMore on Saudi Arabia: ARAMCO and beyond
-
News2 days agoMoney laundering case against Yoshitha, fixed for pre-trial conference
-
News22 hours agoDengue outbreak gallops ahead: Infections surpasses 73,455, leaving 50 dead
-
News22 hours agoEvidence recorded in money laundering case against Yoshitha Rajapaksa

