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‘SL’s inflation reduced to single digit levels in 2023 along with restoration of price stability’

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The Central Bank of Sri Lanka released the Monetary Policy Report – February 2024 in keeping with the requirements of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Act, No. 16 of 2023. The content of this Report is mainly based on information that was considered by the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka in formulating the monetary policy decision during the January 2024 review.

This is the second Monetary Policy Report published by the Central Bank to provide forward-looking insights about the economy, particularly in terms of inflation and economic growth. The Report also aims to provide an assessment of risks to the projections on inflation and economic growth, considering the ongoing and expected developments of domestic and global fronts. Through this report, the Central Bank strives to improve its transparency and accountability by communicating the rationale for the recent monetary policy decisions of the Central Bank.

The key highlights of the Monetary Policy Report – February 2024

Sri Lanka successfully reduced inflation to single-digit levels in 2023 and restored price stability, after containing the historically highest inflation observed in 2022

Supported by corrective policies and structural reforms, economic activity gradually regained momentum in 2023

Monetary policy was relaxed on several occasions since June 2023 as inflation decelerated and inflation expectations remained anchored, while external sector pressures eased

Inflation may deviate from the target in the near term mainly due to the recent tax amendments and supply side disruptions, although such impact is likely to be short-lived.

Inflation is projected to stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year) over the medium term

Annual economic growth is expected to turn positive in 2024 and gradually reach its potential over the medium term

The Executive Summary of the Monetary Policy Report – February 2024 is given below:

The Sri Lankan economy progressed on the path towards restored macroeconomic stability in 2023 where inflation was brought down from its highest levels in history observed in 2022, to single-digit levels. Moreover, amidst uncertainties and challenging conditions following the worst crisis in the country’s history, economic activity resumed gradually, supported by the gradual easing of monetary policy and monetary conditions and the revival in the external sector.

Corrective macroeconomic policies and the implementation of required structural reforms were instrumental in achieving domestic price stability, thereby reinforcing overall macroeconomic stability. Following the rapid disinflation observed in the first half of 2023, year-on-year headline inflation, as measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), moderated to single-digit levels, dropping to as low as 1.3 per cent in September 2023 within a year since striking its peak.

Inflation accelerated somewhat to 4.0 per cent by end 2023 due to supply-driven factors and the dissipating effect of the favourable base. Core inflation based on the CCPI also moderated significantly during 2023, reflecting subdued underlying demand pressures.

Meanwhile, the domestic economy made a steadfast recovery in 2023 benefitting from the gradual return of overall macroeconomic stability with the implementation of long-term-oriented economic policies by the Government and related authorities. Moreover, the strong commitment to reviving the economy through the adoption of such policies helped improve investor sentiments.

Accordingly, with uncertainties dissipating and improvements observed on all macroeconomic fronts, the economy recorded an expansion in its activity in Q3-2023, after six consecutive quarters of contraction. Supported by the easing of monetary policy and improvement in domestic economic activity, an expansion in credit to the private sector was observed since mid-2023, and this momentum is expected to continue in the period ahead.

The Central Bank continued to relax monetary policy during the second half of 2023 as the economy reached a state of stability with inflation remaining low and inflation expectations remaining anchored, while external sector pressures eased. Following the rapid disinflation process, current inflation remains closer to the inflation target.

However, projections indicate a deviation of inflation from the target, primarily due to amendments to Value Added Tax (VAT) introduced in January 2024, before it retraces towards the target from around end 2024. This uptick in inflation is expected to be short-lived, thereby posing no significant threat to maintaining inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term. On the whole, risks to the near-term inflation projections are skewed to the upside, largely due to supply-side factors, while risks to medium-term inflation projections are balanced. Economic growth is expected to remain

subdued in the short term but is expected to recover gradually towards its potential. Risks to real economic growth projections are skewed to the downside both in the near term as well as in the medium term, as economic activity is susceptible to adverse developments on the global front that affect export recovery, as well as loss in productivity due to outmigration of skilled labour and structural impediments to growth.

(CBSL)



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Committee appointed for restructuring SriLankan Airlines

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The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the appointment of a Committee, chaired by Senior Presidential Advisor on Digital Economy Dr. Hans Wijayasuriya, to conduct a strategic review and restructuring of SriLankan Airlines.

The other members of the committee are as follows:

• Senior Presidential Economic Advisor Duminda Hulangamuwa

• Financial and corporate strategy expert Deshal De Mel

• Transaction and investment banking, mergers and acquisitions expert Dumith Fernando

• The Secretary to the Ministry of Finance or his Representative

• The Secretary to the Ministry of Transport, Highways and Urban Development / a representative of the Civil Aviation Authority

• The Chairman of SriLankan Airlines

• Legal experts with specialised knowledge in corporate, aviation and public law

• Aviation industry experts to be appointed

The Government has recognised the urgent priority of undertaking a comprehensive strategic review of SriLankan Airlines, taking into account the broader macroeconomic context.

The main objective of this exercise is to establish a financially sustainable and commercially efficient national carrier, while reducing the long-term fiscal burden on the Government.

Accordingly, it has been deemed appropriate to establish a dedicated committee to carry out the strategic review and restructuring process in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which is serving as the Transaction Advisor.

The committee will be responsible for:

• Conducting an independent review and assessment of the airline’s strategic direction and future course of action

• Recommending restructuring requirements and possible restructuring models

• Evaluating specific strategic options and identifying the most suitable course of action aligned with the Government’s overall objectives

• Providing oversight, guidance and support for the implementation of the selected strategy and execution framework determined by the Government

The committee will function for the duration of the strategic review and restructuring process, or until it is formally dissolved by the Government of Sri Lanka.

 (PMD)

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CMTA warns of further Rs. 40 billion revenue leakage in 2026, calls for urgent removal of 15% depreciation

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(L to R): Andrew Perera, Chairman, Ceylon Motor Traders Association and Lakmal de Silva, Senior Vice Chairman, Ceylon Motor Traders Association

The Ceylon Motor Traders’ Association (CMTA), the senior-most automotive association in Sri Lanka affiliated with the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, has issued an urgent appeal to the government to abolish the 15% depreciation currently granted on used vehicle imports, warning that the concession is causing massive revenue leakages at a time when the country can least afford them.

The Association estimates that the existing depreciation mechanism resulted in approximately Rs. 40 billion in lost government revenue in 2025 alone. If corrective action is not taken immediately, a similar level of revenue leakage could occur in 2026, further impacting the government’s fiscal position and depriving the country of much-needed funds for national development and public services.

The Association notes that loopholes within the existing system have created opportunities for misuse, resulting not only in unfair advantages for certain importers but also in substantial losses to government revenue. Addressing these abuses, alongside the removal of the 15% depreciation concession, is essential to ensuring greater transparency, strengthening regulatory oversight, and protecting the integrity of Sri Lanka’s vehicle import sector.

While no official announcement has yet been made regarding the removal of the 15% depreciation, the CMTA has consistently highlighted the issue through multiple budget proposals submitted via the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce. The Association has repeatedly maintained that there is no viable justification for the continued application of this concession on used vehicle imports.

Currently, used vehicles receive a 15% depreciation on their Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) value for duty calculation purposes. However, the vast majority of vehicles entering the country through the used vehicle market are virtually zero-mileage units, with CIF values that are often comparable to those of brand-new vehicles. In such circumstances, the CMTA argues that granting a blanket 15% depreciation creates an unfair and unjustifiable tax advantage while significantly reducing government revenue collections.

The Association acknowledges that if the objective through this concession is making vehicles more affordable for consumers, then the CMTA stresses that affordability cannot be achieved through arbitrary concessions that create market distortions and substantial losses to the Treasury. If the intention is to reduce vehicle prices, similar policy considerations could be extended to brand-new vehicles rather than selectively benefiting one segment of the market.

Consumers who purchase brand-new vehicles benefit from manufacturer warranties, which help mitigate maintenance and repair costs during the warranty period. As a result, vehicle owners are less likely to incur additional expenses associated with importing replacement parts, providing greater long-term value, reliability, and peace of mind.

The CMTA further notes that as far back as 2013, a structured depreciation framework was implemented based on the age of a vehicle, rather than a flat-rate concession. Under this proposal, depreciation would be calculated according to a defined scale and capped at a maximum of 10%, ensuring greater fairness, transparency and alignment with the actual value of the vehicle.

The Association stated that the continued application of a blanket 15% depreciation is resulting in significant and unnecessary revenue leakages for the government. At a time when every rupee of revenue is critical to the country’s economic progress, this issue requires immediate attention and decisive action.

The CMTA therefore strongly urges the relevant authorities to take swift action to abolish the current 15% depreciation concession and close this avenue of revenue leakage without delay. The Association emphasises that every month of inaction increases the risk of further losses to the state and undermines efforts to strengthen public finances.

Should the government determine that some form of concession should continue to be extended to the used vehicle market, the CMTA maintains that it must be implemented through a structured and transparent framework based on vehicle age and capped at a reasonable level. Such an approach would ensure fairness while safeguarding government revenue and maintaining a level playing field across the automotive industry.

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Climate adaptation now a business survival imperative, experts warn

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Businesses in Sri Lanka risk severe financial and operational disruption unless they urgently invest in climate adaptation and resilience measures, leading climate experts warned at a high-level dialogue on “Climate-Proofing Business Sri Lanka” held on Wednesday at Genesis – The Dilmah Centre for a Sustainable Future.

The event, jointly organized by Genesis and the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, brought together corporate leaders, sustainability professionals, policymakers and climate specialists to discuss how climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the biggest risks facing Sri Lanka’s economy.

Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management Specialist Rohan Cooray said climate-related disasters were already exacting a heavy economic toll globally and locally.

He noted that climate-induced losses divert resources that could otherwise be invested in economic development and business growth and stressed the need for stronger adaptation measures to protect investments and livelihoods.

Delivering the keynote address, internationally renowned climate lawyer and governance specialist Dr. Lalanath de Silva said climate change was no longer a future threat but a present-day economic reality that businesses could not afford to ignore.

“The impacts are coming whether we like it or not,” he said. “The question is whether we prepare now or pay a much higher price later.”

Dr. de Silva explained that while global efforts have largely focused on mitigation—reducing greenhouse gas emissions—adaptation has become equally important, particularly for vulnerable countries such as Sri Lanka.

“Sri Lanka contributes less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet we are among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts,” he said.

He warned that climate change would alter rainfall patterns, intensify floods and droughts, increase the frequency of extreme weather events and place growing pressure on infrastructure, agriculture, water resources and businesses.

“We are very good at producing plans in Sri Lanka. What we have not been good at is implementing them.”

Calling for stronger institutional coordination, Dr. de Silva proposed the establishment of a high-level climate coordination mechanism operating at the highest level of government to ensure coherent action across ministries and agencies.

Providing scientific context to the discussion, Cooray presented projections based on global and regional climate models adopted by Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology.

According to Cooray, rainfall patterns across Sri Lanka are expected to become increasingly erratic.

The wet zone is projected to receive more intense rainfall events while many dry-zone regions could experience prolonged drought conditions interspersed with extreme rainfall episodes.

“The danger is not simply that some places become wetter and others become drier. The danger is the increasing variability and unpredictability of rainfall,” he said.

While mitigation projects often generate measurable returns, adaptation investments require innovative financing mechanisms and stronger public-private partnerships, speakers noted.

The event also featured contributions from Dilhan C. Fernando, chairman of Dilmah Ceylon Tea Company PLC; Shiran Fernando, Secretary General and CEO of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce; and Yasangi Randeni, Chief Sustainability Officer of Aitken Spence PLC.

Speakers agreed that climate-proofing businesses is no longer simply about environmental responsibility but about safeguarding assets, maintaining competitiveness, protecting supply chains and ensuring long-term economic sustainability.

The consensus emerging from the forum was clear: while mitigation remains important, Sri Lanka’s immediate priority must be preparing businesses, communities and institutions for climate impacts that are already unavoidable.

By Ifham Nizam

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