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Saudi Arabia’s dilemma as it tries to stay out of US-Iran war

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Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has embarked the country on a course known as Vision 2030 [BBC]

Saudi Arabia is facing a difficult dilemma. Ever since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on 28 February, the Saudis have largely tried to stay out of it.

But now, after being attacked from three sides, the Saudis have had enough. This week, they carried out joint strikes with the US on Irananian proxy militias in Iraq who they believe have been launching drones at the Kingdom.

For Saudi Arabia the dilemma now is whether to keep on hitting back as a deterrent, or whether to try to de-escalate the situation, perhaps by paying off some of their adversaries.

So who is attacking who and why?

First, a bit of context. There are broadly two sides in the conflict that has been consuming the Gulf and other parts of the Middle East for five months now.

On one side there is Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Allied to them are the Houthis in Yemen, a tribal group who took over much of the country in 2014.

Also backed by Iran are the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, the paramilitary group that has allegedly carried out 30 drone strikes on Saudi Arabia and has now been attacked in return.

Then there is Hezbollah in Lebanon, still a potent force but one that is currently lying low.

Reuters Rubble on the ground from a destroyed building. there are trees in the background behind the destruction.
The US and Saudi Arabia carried out strikes at a site belonging to Iraq’s paramilitary Popular Mobilisation Forces [BBC]

On the opposite side of this conflict is the US with its immensely powerful Central Command (Centcom) forces plus – to varying degrees – the Gulf Arab states and Jordan. Israel remains a close US ally but is currently not an active participant in this war.

Iran has most recently been concentrating its drone and missile attacks on Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as targeting any commercial shipping that tries to slip through the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding Iran’s new rules and routing.

The addition of Iraqi militias and the Houthis in Yemen is a relatively new phenomenon and it shows how – without a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran – the region risks becoming ever more embroiled in a widening conflict.

There are a number of reasons why Saudi Arabia is trying not to get sucked into a full-scale conflict.

Its de facto ruler, the relatively young Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, has embarked the country on a course known as “Vision 2030”.

His aim is to diversify the Kingdom away from its dependence on oil revenues and create vibrant, modern, domestic industries that will provide meaningful jobs for the hundreds of thousands of graduates and school leavers pouring onto the job market each year.

Part of Vision 2030 involves attracting foreign investment. Part of it also involves building things like data centres that are vulnerable to attack.

This is not going to work if Saudi Arabia finds itself under an enduring, long-term threat from drones fired across its southern border by the Houthis in Yemen or ballistic missiles fired directly by Iran.

Back in September 2019, the Saudis suffered an unpleasant shock.

With relations with Iran in a poor state, the Saudis woke up to find that an Iranian proxy militia in Iraq had launched a fleet of drones at two of its most vital oil facilities, at Abqaiq and Khurais.

At the time there was a suggestion that the attack had come from the Houthis in Yemen but I visited the site straight afterwards and I could clearly see the holes in the superstructures all facing northwards.

That attack knocked half of Saudi oil exports offline for several days and it was a wake-up call to Riyadh as to just how vulnerable its critical national infrastructure is to attack.

On Monday, satellite images showed the Abqaiq oil facility was struck by drones launched once again by Iranian proxy militias in Iraq.

Then there is oil, still the lifeblood of the Saudi economy.

Iran retaliated against US and Israeli attacks in February by effectively closing off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel between Iran and the Gulf through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas travelled.

Map of Strait of Hormuz

In response, the Saudis pumped as much oil as they could – around five million barrels per day – through their east-west pipeline to their export terminal on the Red Sea, on their opposite coast, at Yanbu.

From there it was loaded onto tankers that headed south, out into the Arabian Sea and off to markets in Asia.

So far so good.

But on 13 July, the Saudis bombed Sanaa airport just outside the Yemeni capital. The strike was claimed by Yemen’s Saudi supported government, which said it wanted to prevent an Iranian plane from landing. In retaliation, the Houthis attacked regional Saudi airports at Abha and Jizan.

More worryingly for Riyadh, the Houthis have begun attacking Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, making it extremely dangerous for ships to pass through the narrow Bab El Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. That in turn chokes off Saudi oil exports to Asia.

Saudi Arabia spent seven years trying to bomb the Houthis into submission and failed.

The war that raged across Yemen was one of the worst humanitarian disasters of our time and its effects are still being felt.

In 2022, Saudi Arabia agreed to an uneasy truce with the Houthis and there were reports of payoffs, but now the richest country in the region, Saudi Arabia, is once more facing the threat of drone and missile attacks from its southern neighbour at the same time as attacks from Iraq to the north.

None of this was envisaged in the plans for Vision 2030.

[BBC]



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Death toll from Philippines ferry fire rises to 76, with more still missing

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The ferry caught fire near tourist hotspot Coron on Wednesday [BBC]

The Philippine Coast Guard says it has recovered 41 bodies from the wreckage of a ferry that caught fire this week, bringing the total death toll to 76.

More than 130 people were on board the MV June Aster when the blaze erupted on Wednesday as it neared its destination at the tourist hotspot of Coron, after departing from Manila.

The coast guard said on Saturday the number of survivors remained 43, with many receiving treatment in hospital, but 13 people remain unaccounted for.

Recovery of bodies had been hampered due to toxic fumes and lingering heat, which meant authorities were unable to board until Friday.

Geronimo Tuvilla, an official for the Philippine Coast Guard, said the priority was identifying victims and determining the cause of the blaze.

Kristine Ablana, a tourism official in Coron, said relatives were being asked to help identify family members through personal items and DNA testing.

“Once someone is able to verify that this photo or these belongings are indeed those of their relative, they will be asked to provide a DNA sample,” she said.

Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Noemie Cayabyab said the fire began in a cargo hold before spreading.

She said survivors had described hearing a loud explosion, “the appearance of smoke and then fire. It spread very quickly”. She added that those who had made it off the ship did not have time to put on lifejackets.

A survivor who was hauled to safety on a rescue boat told the BBC he had heard frantic cries onboard when the fire erupted, and was trampled by panicked people as he tried to escape.

The ferry, built in 2002, held valid safety certificates and passed an enforcement inspection in March, but investigators are looking into potential manifest discrepancies, cargo loading integrity, and crew emergency response protocols, the Palawan Daily reported.

The vessel was carrying 117 passengers and 17 crew members.

Atienza Interisland Ferries, the vessel’s operator, has pledged full co-operation with the inquiry.

[BBC]

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Princess Diana’s ‘revenge dress’ goes up for auction on 9th December

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[pic BBC]

A dress worn by Princess Diana to a party in London hours after a documentary was televised in which the then-Prince Charles admitted to committing adultery during their marriage is going up for auction.

Her dramatic arrival at the Serpentine Gallery in 1994 in a custom-made black silk evening dress by designer Christina Stambolian became an iconic pop-culture moment.

The media dubbed her outfit the “revenge dress”.

Auction house Sotheby’s expects the dress to sell for up to £220,000 ($300,000) when it goes under the hammer on 9 December.

A press release from Sotheby’s said it is the first time the dress has been offered at auction since 1997, when the late princess sold 79 of her dresses to raise money for charities.

Morgane Halimi, Sotheby’s Global Head of Handbags and Fashion, said in a statement that Princess Diana “understood instinctively” that fashion can be a language in its own right.

“On her own terms, Princess Diana turned the dress into one of the most powerful messages she ever made, during one of the most scrutinised and emotionally charged episodes of her life,” Halimi said.

“She walked into a moment in which so much of her story was being told for her and, through what she chose to wear, reclaimed the narrative for herself.”

Martin Keene/PA Wire Princess Diana arriving at the Serpentine Gallery wearing a dress designed by Christina Stambolian dress. The famous "revenge dress" worn worn by Diana during a Vanity Fair fundraising dinner at the Serpentine Gallery in London, on the same night her then-husband the Prince of Wales publicly admitted his infidelity on national television
[BBC]

According to Sotheby’s, Anna Harvey, her stylist at the time, said Diana “wanted to look a million dollars”.

The princess made a last-minute wardrobe change for the fundraising dinner and chose the strapless evening dress by the Greek designer Christina Stambolian – which she accessorised with a royal jewel, a black clutch and black heels.

The vintage Jaguar XJ40 car that Diana arrived in at the event was sold at auction earlier this year for £66,250.

The revenge dress is expected to fetch a considerably higher price.

If it does, it will not be the first time an item from the princess’s wardrobe has sold for a significant sum.

Princess Diana’s sweater featuring a black sheep among rows of white ones was sold for £920,000 at an auction by Sotheby’s in New York in 2023.

[BBC]

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Protesters mistake Pakistan’s U-19 team for asylum seekers in Portsmouth

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[pic Cricinfo]

A Pakistan Under-19 cricket team suddenly became the centre of focus when it was mistaken for a group of asylum seekers in Portsmouth. A group of protesters gathered outside the Marriott Hotel in Portsmouth after reports that asylum seekers were staying there. The situation had to be later diffused when it was ascertained that the hotel was hosting the Pakistan Under-19 team.

According to the Guardian, the situation became tense when a crowd gathered outside the Marriott hotel after reports that about 40 men who did not seem to be English arrived at the hotel. George Madgwick, a Reform councillor, called the hotel to mediate between the Pakistan Under-19 staff and the assembled crowd, following which the crowd dispersed.

“I spoke to the coach of the team, who was very understanding,” Madgwick told the Guardian. “I went out to the protesters and told them, ‘You’ve got it wrong guys, it’s a cricket club.’ They left within a couple of minutes. It was a massively unfortunate incident.

“From the perspective of the people of Portsmouth who are already on high alert, this was a coach from the same company which was turning up with about 40 foreign men.”

The ECB has been in touch with the Pakistan management following the incident and is reviewing security arrangements.

The Pakistan Under-19 team played a four-day game against England Under-19 in Arundel from September 2 to 5, which they lost by ten runs. The two teams faced off in a Youth ODI on September 9, with Pakistan winning by 177 runs. Pakistan’s senior men’s team are also playing the third and final Test against England at Edgbaston.

[Cricinfo]

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