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Ruchir Sharma urges Sri Lanka to spring a ‘surprise on the upside’ to catch foreign investors’ eye

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Ruchir Sharma

By Sanath Nanayakkare

When a country is in an economic crisis, it creates an environment conducive to implementing economic reforms which would be difficult to do in good times, however, it still depends on how far the reformist leaders can shape the opinion of the people and the people’s willingness to take those reforms on board, Rockefeller International Chairman and Breakout Capital Founder/ CIO Ruchir Sharma said in Colombo recently.

He made this comment while delivering a public lecture at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka where Sharma shared key insights from his newest book, ‘The 10 Rules of Successful Nations’, illustrating what Sri Lanka can do to catch the eye of indifferent foreign investors.

“At a time of crisis, when a new reformist leader is elected to navigate the country through it, the reforms will be painful in the beginning. If the people say,” Okay, go ahead and do something to contain the crisis, that’s fine. That happened in Greece and today the country is a shining star in Europe. But what happened in Argentina was different as the people didn’t want to go ahead with reforms despite the crisis,” he said.

In this book, Sharma delves deep into 10 rules and areas of growth which are namely; demographics, politics, state, debt, currency, investment, inflation geography, inequality and sentiment. He said that he has given his weightings to the above rules from the perspective of an investor looking at a country’s investment outlook.

The following are some select excerpts from his speech particularly indicating where Sri Lanka is ranked on his 10 rules.

Rule 1- Demographics

“We noticed Sri Lanka’s working age population is projected to grow in the next 5-10 years at only 0.1% a year. That is a very low level. This means you need to do something else to offset it. It is very difficult for Sri Lanka to grow at a rate of more than 6% when your working age population is only growing at 0.1% unless it relies on immigration, automation or increase the retirement age of the labour force.”

Rule 2 –Politics

“Most countries carry out painful economic reforms only when they hit a crisis because the population is also ready to back the reformer. Even India made reforms under crisis. Sri Lanka is going to have elections this year and I don’t know which way people are going to be voting. However, implementing economic reforms and maintaining fiscal stability in the foreseeable future would be crucial for any political party that comes to power.”

Rule 3- State

“We have noticed Sri Lanka’s spending as a share of GDP is now under control. Spending is not the problem. But taxes as a share of GDP are very low in Sri Lanka.”

Rule 4- Debt

“Greece was in crisis and today it is a growing economy in Europe. They followed the right policies and got the debt under control and capitalized on tourism and exports to boost the economy. Sri Lanka can take a smooth and continuous trajectory down this path.”

Rule 5- Currency

“Sri Lankan currency ranks pretty well because it is very cheap in the eyes of investors which is at present stable and effective”.

Rule 6- Investment

Successful countries have investments as a share of their GDP of about 25-35% .That is the sweet spot. And more successful countries have a manufacturing base with a share of their GDP at about 20% or so. Sri Lanka is in the middle in this aspect.

Rule 7- Inflation

Sri Lanka has a success story on containing inflation because of reigning in monetary expansion and having a good monetary policy framework. Most central bankers are stuck in the old framework and focus a lot on consumer price increases. But we also need to consider asset price inflation (property prices), stock prices as well. If those too increase and are backed by a lot of debt financing, that could pose a problem.

Rule 8- Geography

Sri Lanka is on the right trade route but has not fully exploited it. Also, the growth isn’t spread out internally. So much of the population and growth activity are concentrated in Colombo area and the country needs to think about new cities or new urban centres.

Rule 9- Inequality

Too much inequality is not great for a country. But Sri Lanka is not affected by this as the country has few billionaires.

Rule 10- Sentiment

Countries which are in a crisis mode are the ones that carry out economic reforms and Sri Lanka can gain approval in this exercise.

“Generally Sri Lanka ranks relatively well from an investor’s perspective as there is a big improvement over the last couple of years. Now the talking point is what is going to happen on the political front. And once that is settled, Sri Lanka needs to determine its growth engine. The classic growth engine for Sri Lanka would be manufacturing-for- exports to enable rapid increase in per capita income.”

Sounding direct without being ruthless, Sharma said at the conclusion that the world’s investor community is indifferent to Sri Lanka and they don’t talk much about Sri Lanka as their expectations about the country are low.

However, he urged Sri Lanka to capitalize on its potential and spring a surprise on the upside to catch the investors’ eye.



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NSB Group delivers Rs.22.5bn operating profit in 1H 2026 as lending and core income strengthen

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Dr. Harsha Cabral / Rohana Bandara Weerakoon

National Savings Bank Group (NSB) recorded resilient core banking performance during the first six months of 2026, supported by stronger net interest income, a notable expansion in fee-based earnings and continued growth in loans and advances. The results demonstrate the Bank’s capacity to maintain business momentum while navigating cost pressures and volatility in market-related income.

The Bank reported total operating income of Rs. 45.8 billion for the period, an increase of 3.1% compared with Rs. 44.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. Net operating income increased by 2.3% to Rs. 49.1 billion from Rs. 48 billion reported a year ago, providing a stable foundation for the Bank’s operations and customer-focused growth agenda.

Net interest income rose by 5.5% year-on-year to Rs. 44.2 billion, compared with Rs. 41.9 billion in the first half of 2025. This improvement was supported by a 4.7% reduction in interest expenses to Rs. 54.5 billion, despite a marginal moderation in interest income to Rs. 98.6 billion. The result reflects disciplined balance-sheet management and the Bank’s continued focus on maintaining a sustainable funding and asset mix.

The Bank also achieved substantial growth in fee-based earnings. Net fee and commission income increased by 37.0% to Rs. 1.40 billion, from Rs. 1.02 billion a year earlier. The increase underlines the growing contribution from transaction-led services and the Bank’s ongoing efforts to broaden non-interest revenue through customer-centric and digitally enabled banking solutions.

Profit before Tax (PBT) amounted to Rs. 22.6 billion, compared with Rs. 24.1 billion in the first half of 2025, while profit after tax stood at Rs. 13.4 billion, compared with Rs. 14.7 billion. The moderation in profitability principally reflected higher operating costs and the lower contribution from trading and derecognition gains. Personnel expenses increased to Rs. 13.8 billion from Rs. 11.5 billion, while other operating expenses rose to Rs. 4.3 billion from Rs. 4.1 billion.

Despite these pressures, the Bank preserved a substantial earnings base and continued to invest in the people, systems and service capabilities required to improve operational resilience and the customer experience. Income tax for the period amounted to Rs. 9.14 billion, while VAT and the Social Security Contribution Levy on financial services together exceeded Rs. 7.29 billion. In addition, the Bank declared a dividend of Rs. 7.4 billion to the Government as its sole shareholder. Accordingly, NSB’s total contribution to the Government through dividends, taxes and levies amounted to Rs. 23.8 billion, underscoring the Bank’s significant contribution to public finances and national development.

Commenting on the results, National Savings Bank Chairman Dr. Harsha Cabral PC said: “The first-half results reflect the resilience of NSB’s core business model and the enduring confidence placed in the Bank by generations of Sri Lankans. Our priority remains the prudent stewardship of public savings while supporting productive economic activity, financial inclusion and sustainable national development.”

NSB’s total assets increased by 2.1% during the first six months of the year to Rs. 1.87 trillion, from Rs. 1.83 trillion at end-December 2025. Loans and advances recorded a strong 9.1% expansion to Rs. 601.01 billion from Rs. 550.83 billion, demonstrating the Bank’s continued support for the financing needs of individuals, households and eligible institutional customers within its mandate.

Deposits, the principal source of funding for NSB, increased by 1.5% to Rs. 1.63 trillion from Rs. 1.61 trillion. The sustained growth in the deposit base reflects continued public confidence in the Bank and provides a stable platform for its savings-led business model. The Bank’s financial position remained sound, with total shareholders’ equity increasing by 4.1% to Rs. 123.91 billion from Rs. 119.05 billion. Retained earnings rose by 12.4% to Rs. 52.34 billion, further strengthening the Bank’s capacity to support future growth and absorb potential shocks.

Acting General Manager/CEO of National Savings Bank, Mr. Rohana Bandara Weerakoon, said: “Our focus is on translating the Bank’s trusted savings franchise into sustainable customer value. The growth achieved in lending, fee income and shareholder’s equity is encouraging. We will continue to strengthen digital access, service quality, cost discipline and risk management while delivering on NSB’s national mandate.”

The Bank’s profitability indicators continued to reflect the strength of its core banking activities, although higher operating expenses moderated overall returns. The net interest margin improved to 4.81% from 4.74% at the end of 2025, demonstrating an improvement in the Bank’s core interest spread. Return on assets before tax remained broadly stable at 2.46%, compared with 2.48%, while return on equity stood at 22.30%, compared with 25.08% at the end of 2025.

Asset quality improved during the first half of 2026. The net Stage 3 loans ratio declined to 2.05% from 2.52% at the end of 2025, indicating a reduction in net impaired credit exposures relative to the loan portfolio. At the same time, the Stage 3 impairment coverage ratio strengthened to 59.77% from 58.54%, reflecting improved impairment coverage against Stage 3 loans.

NSB maintained capital buffers comfortably above the applicable regulatory minimum requirements. The Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 19.72%, compared with the regulatory minimum of 8.5%, while the total capital ratio stood at 21.1%, well above the minimum requirement of 12.5%. These ratios demonstrate the Bank’s capacity to absorb potential risks while supporting continued business growth.

The Bank also maintained a strong liquidity and stable funding position. The all-currency liquidity coverage ratio stood at 311.88%, substantially above the statutory minimum of 100%, reflecting the availability of sufficient high-quality liquid assets to meet short-term liquidity requirements. The net stable funding ratio stood at 196.17%, also comfortably above the regulatory minimum of 100%, demonstrating the stability of the Bank’s longer-term funding profile.

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Petrol price reduction boosts ASPI

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By Hiran H. Senewiratne

CSE data indicated yesterday that the benchmark All Share Price Index moved up 0.11 percent mainly due to the petrol price reduction among some categories of fuel, market analysts opined.

Despite the lingering tensions in West Asia the market performed well.

The ASPI was up 22.93 points at 21,338.84, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was up 0.22 percent, or 13.03 points, at 6,018.37.

Market turnover was Rs 1.014 billion. Capital goods led turnover with Rs 300.64 million. During the day two crossings took place. Those crossings were reported in Access Engineering 1 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 75 million and its shares traded at Rs 75 and Sierra Cables 850,000 shares crossed for Rs 31 million; its shares traded at Rs 36.70.

In the retail market, companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Sierra Cables Rs 77 million (2 million shares traded), Brown’s Investments Rs 68 million (13.3 million shares traded), CCS Rs 60 million (494,000 shares traded), Citizens Development Bank Rs 30 million (866,000 shares traded), Overseas Realty Rs 27 million (513,000 shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 26 million (185,000 shares traded) and Commercial Credit and Finance Rs 24 million (217,000 shares traded). During the day 51 million share volumes changed hands in 15669 transactions.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were; Browns Investments (up 8.16 percent at Rs 5.30 ), Carson Cumberbatch (up 4.13 percent at Rs 749.50 ), Windforce (up 4.63 percent at Rs 40.70 ), JKH (up 0.51 percent at Rs 19.90 ) and DFCC Bank (up 0.99 percent at Rs 128.00 ).

Vallibel One (down 2.64 percent at Rs 88.50 ), Melstacorp (down 0.52 percent at Rs 190.00 ), and Hatton National Bank (down 0.33 percent at Rs 380.25 ) were top negative contributors.

Ceylon Land & Equity announced a proposed first and final scrip dividend of Rs 0.043 per ordinary share for the financial year ended March 31, 2026, subject to shareholder approval at its Annual General Meeting on September 23, 2026.

The dividend involves capitalizing Rs 39.61 million to issue 4,553,230 new ordinary shares at a consideration of Rs 8.70 per share, in the proportion of 1 new share for every 202.33 existing shares.

Shares of Ceylon Land & Equity closed down 1.16 percent at Rs 8.50.

Maharaja Foods announced a final scrip dividend of Rs 0.10 per ordinary share for the financial year ended March 31.

Following a 15 percent withholding tax deduction, the net dividend entitlement of Rs 0.085 per share will be satisfied by issuing 730,468 new ordinary shares at a consideration of Rs 16.00 per share, in the proportion of 1 new share for every 188.2354873861 existing shares held.

Shares of Maharaja Foods were trading up 0.61 percent at Rs16.50.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 327.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market, stronger from Rs 327.98/328.04 Friday, while bond yields were broadly steady, dealers said.

The telegraphic transfer rate for the dollar was 323.50 buying, 332.50 selling; the euro was 372.5779 buying, 386.3587 selling; and the pound was 437.1858 buying, 451.2942 selling.

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A huge welcoming ‘Yes’ to Ai-CHA

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Ai-CHA, the Indonesian origin, ice cream and bubble tea brand is establishing itself as an irresistible, super-cooling refreshment among consumers in the bustling coastal town of Negombo, besides proving a big hit among other Sri Lankan urban populations as well. The numbers visiting the initial Ai-CHA ice cream parlour in Negombo is solid evidence that the ice cream brand is proving a crowd-puller of the first magnitude.

Ai-CHA Ice cream and bubble tea is already present in over 2000 locations world wide and has made striking inroads into global consumer palettes. Referred to as ‘a popular international soft-serve ice cream and bubble tea brand’, these ideal thirst quenches are made of high quality ingredients such as, milk, milk powder, cream, sugar and water. The prices are purse-easy and affordable.

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