Return of the Rajapaksas

The big news on the presidential election front – if it could be so termed – last week was Namal Rajapaksa being anointed as the pohottuwa’s presidential candidate. The SLPP has long been playing a cat and mouse game, loudly declaring that they will be fielding a candidate but remaining remarkably shy of naming that worthy. President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s foot dragging about declaring himself a runner, while launching his campaign and getting proxies to proclaim his candidacy, was perceived by many as a waiting game to see whether the Rajapaksas were eventually going to go along with him for five more years. The answer, preceded by Basil Rajapaksa’s “bayath nehe, nayath nehe” (we’re neither afraid nor are we in debt) statement, came last Wednesday with Namal throwing himself at his father’s and uncle’s feet and accepting the party nomination.

It has only been a little over two years since Gotabaya Rajapaksa called for the resignation of his prime minister brother and his government and fled the country to quit himself from Singapore. But in this short span of time when the Rajapaksas and their fellow travelers did not know where to hide, they have recovered sufficiently to field one of their own for the presidency. The country has, of course, been treated to the spectacle of politicians, despised in the months leading to the aragalaya, deserting MR and hitching their wagon to the Wickremesinghe star. Gone are the days when they fondly called Mahinda Rajapaksa appachchi though many yet maintain that they remain SLPP members although they are opposing that party’s nominee at the upcoming presidential election.

A political cartoon published last Friday showed Mahinda Rajapaksa draping a too long satakaya round Namal’s shoulder while Dhammika Perera was shown hanging up his blue suit and red tie. It wasn’t very long ago when MR told reporters that there was “more time for Namal.” Dhammika Perera, who had for the last several weeks been stating his availability and promoting his DP Education on national television wrote to the SLPP Secretary saying he was pulling out for a “personal reason” but did not disclose what it was. He succeeded Basil Rajapaksa as an SLPP National List MP having shed his corporate connections, briefly served as Minister of Investment Promotion during the tail end of the GR presidency and has barely spoken a word in parliament since his entry to the legislature. Whether his withdrawal from the race was on his own volition or a command performance, we do not know.

There is little doubt that most of the political alliances now been forged and individual stances being adopted are mostly related to the parliamentary election due in August next year. Of course whoever wins the September 21 contest can instantly dissolve parliament if he so wishes. Basil Rajapaksa tried hard, though unsuccessfully, to persuade President RW to have a parliamentary election ahead of the presidential poll. This was totally on account of the calculation that the SLPP would do better under such an arrangement. It is commonsense if not common knowledge that the vaasi paththata hoiya (hurrah for the winning side) syndrome works well in this country and the winning president will want to exploit this factor. Already the JVP/NPP has said they would do that. Other parties may be influenced by the five years of parliamentary service rule to qualify for a pension. Many incumbents have not completed this period.

There has been speculation that the number of runners at the forthcoming election may be a record. Up to Thursday a total of 24 candidates from recognized political parties and independents have posted deposits to contest. This compares to 19 candidates in 2015 and 35 in 2019. As we pointed out in this space recently the vast majority of these contestants don’t have a snowball’s chance in the sun. Proxies are often fielded by serious runners to take over candidate benefits. Others run as vote breakers, some to mark a presence and some out of sheer lunacy. But the length of the ballot paper comes at a heavy cost to the taxpayer. An obvious deterrent to frivolous candidature would to set the required deposit at a higher level than what prevails today. A cabinet decision to this effect was taken earlier this year but it was too late for the forthcoming election. Both the election and political authorities have been remiss over this matter.

As matters stand at present, the serious contenders would be Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, President Wickremesinghe, Anura Kumara Dissanayake and perhaps Namal Rajapaksa. Opinion polling in this country has seldom been accurate with samples taken not representing a realistic cross section of the population. At this stage the pundit can say that Royal will win the match, or S. Thomas’ will win or it’ll be a draw. The situation, of course, could change as September 21 approaches. There will be massive (and wasteful) expenditure with little transparency on source of funds, walls defaced by posters and loudspeakers bellowing political rhetoric. It is to be hoped that law and order will be maintained even without an IGP. The present status quo is preferable to a partisan on the hot seat.